Reality Check's Weekly Sagarin Predictor Thread...

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Originally Posted by DAIQUIRIDAWG

What are the conference rankings as of now?

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Here is one -

http://www.realtimerpi.com/college_f..._conf_Men.html

1	Southeastern 14	84-46 (65%)	42-4 (91%)	33.53	57.97	1
	2	Pacific-12 12	69-44 (61%)	30-5 (86%)	31.16	54.89	5
	3	Big 12 10	53-39 (58%)	22-8 (73%)	29.45	55.82	3
	4	Atlantic Coast 14	77-55 (58%)	36-14 (72%)	28.68	56.38	2
	5	Big Ten 14	76-51 (60%)	39-14 (74%)	28.57	55.21	4
	6	Independents 4	19-17 (53%)	18-16 (53%)	25.26	52.76	6
	7	Mountain West 12	59-55 (52%)	27-23 (54%)	22.30	50.40	8
	8	Conference USA 13	59-63 (48%)	29-33 (47%)	20.90	48.96	10
	9	American Athletic 11	42-53 (44%)	16-27 (37%)	20.17	50.18	9
	10	Mid-American 13	55-69 (44%)	24-38 (39%)	18.84	47.39	18
	11	Sun Belt 11	43-60 (42%)	27-44 (38%)	18.63	47.19	20
	12 fcs	Missouri Valley 10	55-41 (57%)	40-26 (61%)	13.91	51.33	7
	13 fcs	Colonial 10	56-42 (57%)	31-17 (65%)	12.59	48.43	13
	14 fcs	Big South 7	34-30 (53%)	27-23 (54%)	10.61	46.25	21
	15 fcs	Big Sky 13	51-69 (43%)	14-32 (30%)	10.17	45.89	22
	16 fcs	Southland 11	47-55 (46%)	28-36 (44%)	10.16	47.30	19
	17 fcs	Patriot League 7	31-36 (46%)	16-21 (43%)	10.14	48.94	11
	18 fcs	Ohio Valley 9	36-48 (43%)	19-31 (38%)	9.72	47.47	17
	19 fcs	Ivy League 8	31-33 (48%)	11-13 (46%)	9.65	47.84	16
	20 fcs	Northeast 7	26-33 (44%)	17-24 (41%)	9.42	48.24	15
	21 fcs	Southern 8	28-42 (40%)	20-34 (37%)	8.96	48.35	14
	22 fcs	Mid-Eastern Athletic 11	39-63 (38%)	11-35 (24%)	8.40	43.84	25
	23 fcs	Southwestern Athletic 10	39-50 (44%)	2-13 (13%)	8.27	45.44	23
	24 fcs	Pioneer League 11	41-51 (45%)	11-21 (34%)	7.90	45.27	24
	25 fcs	Independents (FCS) 1	2-6 (25%)	2-6 (25%)	7.00	48.87	12

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NCAA Men's Football - Conference USA (2014-2015)
Conf. Ranking: 8 Conf. SOS Rank: 10
Overall Recard: 59-63 Non-Conf Record: 29-33 Only games against Division I opponents are counted.

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That Conference "Strength of Schedule" for CUSA is really bad.

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

That Conference "Strength of Schedule" for CUSA is really bad.

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We did our share as did Rice - what would it look like without OU & Aub & ND & A&M in there?

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Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden

We did our share as did Rice - what would it look like without OU & Aub & ND & A&M in there?

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Good point. The rest of CUSA needs to turn it up a notch.

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

Good point. The rest of CUSA needs to turn it up a notch.

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Yep -

Really, the only sub 100 we had on ours was the Demons and that didn't work out for us very well

Leave RPI to basketball.

Here are the College Football Computer Composite Conference Rankings. It includes all the former BCS computers except Billingsley. Average is in bold.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . A&H | Co | Ma | Sa | Wo | Avg

SEC 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 Pac-12 2 2 2 3 2 2.2 Big 12 3 4 3 2 3 3.0 Big Ten 4 3 5 4 4 4.0 ACC 5 5 4 5 5 4.8 Mountain West 6 6 6 7 6 6.2 Conference USA 7 7 8 8 7 7.4 American 8 8 7 6 8 7.4 MAC 9 9 9 9 9 9.0 Sun Belt 10 10 10 10 10 10.0

Thanks guys.

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 12 recap and Week 13 projections
Week 12 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—33-17 (.660), 2013 Week 12—44-7 (.863)
FBS Season to date—533-161 (.768), 2013 after Week 12—547-132 (.806)

Home field advantage is at 3.19 in the Week 13 Predictor ratings, down from 3.22 in Week 12.

80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 13, up from 77 before Week 12. 60 teams are bowl-eligible and 37 are eliminated after Week 12, leaving 31 teams still in contention.

AAC—6, ACC—10, Big 12—6, Big Ten—11, C-USA—7, Indy—3, MAC—6, MWC—6 Pac 12—9, $EC—12, SBC—4*

*--Georgia Southern is not included this week since 80 other teams are projected bowl-eligible.

Florida State and Marshall are projected undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 11. 6 teams are projected to be 11-1 not counting conference championship games—Alabama, Baylor, Colorado State, Ohio State, Oregon, and TCU.

Louisiana Tech projected to finish 9-3, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place (same as in Week 12 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
-------------PROJECTIONS-------------------
W by 17.48 at ODU (down from W by 17.96)
W by 13.12 vs Rice (up from W by 12.01)

Other Week 12 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
UTSA won 12-10 vs Southern Miss (projected W by 6.88)
Marshall won 41-14 vs Rice (projected W by 13.85)
FIU won 38-28 vs Middle Tennessee (projected L by 1.52)
UTEP won 35-17 vs North Texas (projected W by 6.54)
Western Kentucky won 52-24 vs Army (projected W by 12.63)

Other Week 13 C-USA Projected Results
Marshall projected W by 12.66 at UAB
Rice projected W by 5.01 vs UTEP
Western Kentucky projected W by 8.52 vs UTSA
Middle Tennessee projected W by 9.09 vs FAU
North Texas projected W by 3.51 vs FIU

open date—Southern Miss

Current and projected C-USA and overall records.

CONFERENCE USA EAST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Marshall	6-0	10-0	8-0	12-0
Middle Tennessee	4-2	5-5	5-3	6-6
UAB	3-3	5-5	4-4	6-6
Florida International	3-4	4-7	3-5	4-8
Western Kentucky	2-4	5-5	3-5	6-6
Old Dominion	2-4	4-6	2-6	4-8
Florida Atlantic	2-4	3-7	3-5	4-8
CONFERENCE USA WEST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Louisiana Tech	6-0	7-3	8-0	9-3
Rice	4-2	6-4	5-3	7-5
UTEP	4-2	6-4	5-3	7-5
UTSA	2-4	3-7	3-5	4-8
North Texas	1-5	3-7	2-6	4-8
Southern Mississippi	1-6	3-8	1-7	3-9

Assume it plays out like that-- we have 4 teams above 500 and 3 at 500-- what are you guys projecting for Bowl games?

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Originally Posted by Dogsince65

Assume it plays out like that-- we have 4 teams above 500 and 3 at 500-- what are you guys projecting for Bowl games?

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If cusa has 7 teams available & sec does not have team available for I-Bowl, i project we'll be there. Heart of Dallas would be next. Armed Forces bowl will likely have spot open

Armed forces does have spot open (army) - what i mean is secondary (big xii) will probably be open

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 13 recap and Week 14 projections
Week 12 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—43-16 (.729), 2013 Week 13—47-12 (.797)
FBS Season to date—576-177 (.765), 2013 after Week 13—594-144 (.805)

Home field advantage is at 3.24 in the Week 14 Predictor ratings, up from 3.19 in Week 13.

Projected (current) bowl-eligible teams
80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 14, same as before Week 13. 71 teams are bowl-eligible and 40 are eliminated after Week 13, leaving 17 teams still in contention.

AAC—6 (5), ACC—10 (9), Big 12—6 (6), Big Ten—10 (9), C-USA—7 (6), Indy—3 (2), MAC—6 (5), MWC—7 (6), Pac 12—9 (8), $EC—12 (11), SBC—4* (4)

*--Georgia Southern and Appalachian State are not included this week since 80 other teams are projected bowl-eligible.

Florida State and Marshall are projected undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 14. 6 teams are projected to be 11-1 going into Championship Saturday—Alabama, Baylor, Colorado State, Ohio State, Oregon, and TCU.

Louisiana Tech projected to finish 8-4, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
W by 10.35 vs Rice (down from W by 13.12)

Other Week 13 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
Marshall won 23-18 at UAB (projected W by 12.66)
Rice won 31-13 vs UTEP (projected W by 5.01)
Western Kentucky won 45-7 vs UTSA (projected W by 8.52)
Middle Tennessee won 35-34 vs FAU (projected W by 9.09)
North Texas won 17-14 vs FIU (projected W by 3.51)

Other Week 14 C-USA Projected Results
Marshall projected W by 17.01 vs Western Kentucky
UTEP projected W by 4.94 vs Middle Tennessee
UAB projected W by 6.57 at USM
FAU projected W by 2.19 vs ODU
UTSA projected W by 0.03 vs North Texas

open date—FIU

Current and projected C-USA and overall records.

CONFERENCE USA EAST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Marshall	7-0	11-0	8-0	12-0
Middle Tennessee	5-2	6-5	5-3	6-6
Western Kentucky	3-4	6-5	3-5	6-6
UAB	3-4	5-6	4-4	6-6
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	3-5	5-7
Florida International	3-5	4-8	3-5	4-8
Florida Atlantic	2-5	3-8	3-5	4-8
CONFERENCE USA WEST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Louisiana Tech	6-1	7-4	7-1	8-4
Rice	5-2	7-4	5-3	7-5
UTEP	4-3	6-5	5-3	7-5
UTSA	2-5	3-8	3-5	4-8
North Texas	2-5	4-7	2-6	4-8
Southern Mississippi	1-6	3-8	1-7	3-9

Oh great. Now BOTH teams playing for the CUSA West title have losses to the 5th place team in the East. :icon_roll: That just screams "quality" in the west doesn't it?