Russia

ISW just put out a report assessing the impact of a full deployment/use of the ATACMS missiles by Ukraine. First, these missiles have an effective range of 200 miles. Which is significantly less than Ukraine's long-range drones which have routinely been striking targets 1,000+ miles inside of Russia. But, when an ATACMS missile strikes it utterly destroys its target. The HIMARS missiles have a range of about 50 miles, so 200 miles greatly increases Ukraine's reach. Ukraine has been pleading to use the ATACMS, and the German Tarsus and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, in attacks into Russia specifically to hit Russian air bases from which Russian SU-25s and other fighter-bombers operate from, these planes deploying the very effective glide bombs. The Russian planes never leave Russian air space as the glide bombs can cover up to 500 miles, which is the basis to the counter-argument of authorizing the use of ATACMS. Critics say all this will do is escalate tensions without providing any long-term benefit to Ukraine. The Russians will simply pull back their bombers more than 200 miles from the border and operate from those bases. But, as ISW correctly points out, the Russian air bases are only a small part of the big picture. There are by actual count 212 crucial military targets in Russia that are more than 50 miles inside of the border, out of range of the HIMARS, but less than 200 miles in.

Now!!! Putin's prize Kerch Bridge is dead meat, baby! The ATACMS can easily reach it, and the structure will not survive an ATACMS strike. Anticipating this, Russia has ordered evacuations of more civilians and some of their military personnel off of Crimea while the bridge is still standing. About 1,000 North Koreans were sent to Crimea and Fat Boy has ordered them to leave ASAP.

In related news, while the Germans are balking at the use of their cruise missiles, the UK has announced they will join the US in allowing Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow cruise missile as they see fit.

And so, tensions increase, such that Poland has announced it has called up another 40 pilots, mostly for their F-16s and put their advanced bases on cautionary alert.

Well, that didn't take long. Overnight Ukraine blasted targets in Russia using the US-made ATACMS missiles. No details released yet on where and what the results are. Putin signed a new doctrine lowering of the threshold by which Russia will use nukes.

Some pundits say Putin will NOT use nukes, but rather use other methods to retaliate. Like providing more support to US/western enemies, like Iran and their proxies, and in other ways. Namely like the recent "accident" off the coast of Virginia when a Russian cargo ship "accidently" released highly-toxic chemicals into the water, just inside the international waters line, with currents/tides that flow toward Norfolk, Virginia, home of one of our largest navy bases. Yeah, right....an "accident."

This mess will get worse, before it gets better.

Kremlin claims Ukraine launched 6 ATACMS missiles at targets in Byansk Oblast, in western Russia. They also claimed 5 were shot down and the 6th one damaged by anti-missile missiles and it crashed into a barracks at a base, causing a fire, which has been extinguished. No comments at all from Ukraine on this. And thus far, no independent sources have reported anything. So, we'll have to see.

Kremlin sources again reiterated the nonsense that Ukrainians are too dumb to operate the sophisticated ATACMS systems therefore US personnel are and thus a "state of hostility exists between the US and Russia." This was followed by a reminder of the new doctrine signed into law by Putin re: the use of nukes.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Kremlin claims Ukraine launched 6 ATACMS missiles at targets in Byansk Oblast, in western Russia. They also claimed 5 were shot down and the 6th one damaged by anti-missile missiles and it crashed into a barracks at a base, causing a fire, which has been extinguished. No comments at all from Ukraine on this. And thus far, no independent sources have reported anything. So, we'll have to see.

Kremlin sources again reiterated the nonsense that Ukrainians are too dumb to operate the sophisticated ATACMS systems therefore US personnel are and thus a "state of hostility exists between the US and Russia." This was followed by a reminder of the new doctrine signed into law by Putin re: the use of nukes.

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WSJ just published an article quoting an official Ukrainian source that the ATACMS attack last night was a success. They hit an ammo dump/equipment depot which has hardened bunkers housing the ammo, and the Ukran source says there were 12 secondary explosions inside the bunkers recorded by one of their drones. No comment at all on the Kremlin's claims of ATACMS shot down.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

WSJ just published an article quoting an official Ukrainian source that the ATACMS attack last night was a success. They hit an ammo dump/equipment depot which has hardened bunkers housing the ammo, and the Ukran source says there were 12 secondary explosions inside the bunkers recorded by one of their drones. No comment at all on the Kremlin's claims of ATACMS shot down.

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Kanal 13, a reliable YouTuber, posted video, lifted from Russian social media, of the ammo dump blowing up.

Officially, the Ukrainian government still has not confirmed the use of ATACMS last night. In a statement, Kyiv says they have successfully attacked targets with drones and their own domestically manufactured Neptune missile. This target was about 65 miles across the border, so it is very possible the Neptune missile was used.

In more good news, Germany, while denying the use of their Tarsus cruise missile, announced today they have completed the testing and production of their latest drone, donned "Tarsus Light" and will be sending 4,000 of them to Ukraine. These drones are said to be the VERY BEST in the world, using AI to jam electronic jammers, and have an effective range 5X greater than those produced in Ukraine. Good ole "German engineering"!!!

More bad news from the front. Russian troops have entered the city of Chasiv Yar. They have seized about 15% of the city, eastern suburbs. Yes, the Russians paid a heavy price in losses to get to this point, but that never seems to matter to the Kremlin/Putin. The battle of Chasiv Yar has been raging for 18 months, and in the past 6 months, the Russians finally broke through the outer defenses in the hills east of the city. Now, as of yesterday, they entered the city itself with a sudden and large attack. Chasiv Yar sits on a small river and is the crossroads of two major highways in the area. Thus far the Russians are batting 1.000 in ultimately seizing cities once they enter, such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Yulhedar, and other smaller towns. Already pundits are saying Chasiv Yar is lost, but the Ukrans will linger just to inflict as much damage as possible on the Russian units there.

Drone video footage of Chasiv Yar shows the city in utter ruin. Not a single building, which is still standing, is undamaged. In the city's center, in a large park/commons, an old church Eastern Orthodox, with the domes and steeples, built in the 1600's, has been destroyed, struck by artillery and glide bombs by the Russians, and will soon be under Ukran artillery fire as they attempt to kill Russians occupying the city.

On this subject...let's say Putin gets his wish and eventually occupies all of Donbas, four provinces, representing about 20% of Ukrainian territory in square miles. Given what has happened thus far, there will be nothing left. Every single village, town, city, all infrastructure, such as bridges, railroads, highways, water treatment plants, electric power plants, dams, etc...will be completely destroyed. Russia is already broke, their economy is in ruins as Putin made the jump to a "war time" economy 6 months ago, ignoring the needs of the civilian economy. So, how will Putin rebuild Donbas, especially as his own towns and infrastructure are taking a pounding by the Ukrans, and will continue to? I suppose the good ole American taxpayer will pony up, somehow, and help Putin rebuild all the destruction he has caused. After all, American taxpayers rebuilt Germany, Japan, France, and most of Europe destroyed in WWII.

It is over on the western side of the Kursk salient. As of this morning, the Russians have withdrawn the remnants of their "elite" 150th Division units, utterly destroyed by the Ukran 47th Brigade, supported by elements of the 38th Brigade and some Ukrainian marine units. Estimates place Russian losses at 100+ armored vehicles and 2,500 KIA and another 2,000 wounded. They have retired about 10 miles to lick their wounds and perhaps regroup. Of course, no way will the Ukrans afford them peace and quiet while they refit. Already Ukran drones are attacking the 150th Division in its new location.

The Russian plan of attack was stupid, all focused on capturing a single bridge at the town of Novo....(whatever). After they tipped their hand as to their objective, it was an easy matter for the defending Ukrainians to concentrate the laying of mines and their artillery to cover the approaches to the bridge. Asked why they didn't destroy the bridge, a Ukrainian commander quipped, "why do that, it's the bait that keeps the Orcs sacrificing themselves."

In other news, anti-Russian protests have grown in size and intensity in the country of Georgia. Already the puppet president, a personal friend of Putin's, has fled the country with his family. In one town, Putin's police force was sent reeling as they were overwhelmed by the protestors. Georgia wants to expel all Russians and Russian influences, and then join the EU and NATO. Will it happen? Hopefully, but the good people there will need western support. Oh, that's right, there are those who don't want to get involved...:rolleyes:

BREAKING NEWS!!!

The US State Department has ordered the immediate closure and evacuation of the US Embassy in Kyiv. Three other European nations have followed suit, with others expected to do so soon.

Intelligence services revealed that an attack is imminent on the US Embassy, and likely other embassies, as retaliation by Putin against those countries he mostly blames for his utter failure. No, not a nuke, but Russia has powerful non-nuke warheads mounted on their long-range missiles capable of completely destroying a building, as Putin has already demonstrated with his evil attacks across Ukraine. Remember the utter destruction of the ancient monastery serving as a school, with zero military connection? Putin did it out of meanness, just because he could. That monastery was 1,000 years old, sitting by itself in the countryside. Not a single Ukrainian soldier within 50 miles of it. Four children, and two adults, were killed and dozens more injured by the senseless attack. Half the complex, as it was multiple buildings, was either destroyed or severely damaged. Putin is pure evil.

Anyway, all Americans currently in Kyiv and in other Ukrainian locations are urged to leave ASAP.

Something is happening! Kremlin and Putin inner-circle officials, and their families, are evacuating Moscow heading to points unknown, probably bunkers somewhere in the Ural Mountains or something. Are they anticipating a retaliatory strike on Moscow after they do something stupid?

Ukraine launched 10 British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets in Russia. No reports yet on where and the results. But, given how resourceful the Ukrans have been, I bet more of Putin's stuff has been destroyed.

Oops, reports are they launched 12 Storm Shadows and 10 struck the intended target, which, according to reports, is one of Putin's secret bunkers under a fabulous country palace. It also serves as an army HQ for the Kursk region. Well...it WAS a fabulous palace, not so much anymore.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Ukraine launched 10 British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets in Russia. No reports yet on where and the results. But, given how resourceful the Ukrans have been, I bet more of Putin's stuff has been destroyed.

Oops, reports are they launched 12 Storm Shadows and 10 struck the intended target, which, according to reports, is one of Putin's secret bunkers under a fabulous country palace. It also serves as an army HQ for the Kursk region. Well...it WAS a fabulous palace, not so much anymore.

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The actual palace itself was not hit. Instead the out-buildings in the complex were targeted because they housed the Russian army HQ and also covered the entrances to the underground bunkers. Actual video shows 10 hits. One video was shot and published on social media by a local Russian resident, the town of Marino. His narration is classic. "F**k! we're getting bombed to ruins!" he shouts as he videos the incoming cruise missiles. A Ukran recon drone captured the whole attack. Kaboom! 10 times, ya gotta love it.

More losses by hapless Russian units in Kursk. The 150th Division retired but left behind some armor and troops to cover the main road. Last night the Ukrans, 47th Brigade, sent three tanks, Leopard IIs, supported by three Bradleys and a squad of infantry, they wiped out the Russian rear guard. Across the salient, on the northeastern front, the Russians thought the Ukrans had withdrawn from a patch of woods, they hadn't. The goofy Russians tried crossing an open field thinking they could safely reach the "vacated" woods. Wrong!

Reports that Putin is forcing Ukrainians who live in Donbas to join his army. But, it looks more like they are volunteering. Based on the released video, by the Putin propagandists, showing "Ukrainians" in Russian uniforms drilling and then "proudly" marching under the Russian flag. Some pundits question the validity of this video, and with good reason, since, like democraps, all the Putinites do is lie. So, are these really Ukrainians, and if so, did they really volunteer, or were they forced?

Putin struck Dnipro City with an R-26 ICBM. No reports yet on damage, but obviously there had to be some. More later.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Putin struck Dnipro City with an R-26 ICBM. No reports yet on damage, but obviously there had to be some. More later.

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Reports are that just two people were injured, and there was minimal damage in Dnipro. The only image I have seen shows what was an abandoned building, now mostly collapsed from the missile strike. Were any other structures damaged? Don't know but doesn't appear to be any. Again, no one is saying anything (yet) but did the Russians purposely target an empty part of the city to send a message, without actually causing much damage? Guess we'll learn the answer to that question in time.

Meanwhile, the Ukrans continue to attack Russian military and important infrastructure with ATACMS and both British and French-made cruise missiles.

AI drone

About a month ago, a Russian drone crashed into a town in Croatia, remarkably doing minimal damage and causing no injuries. It missed the dorms of a college by 200 yards, crashing into a field used sometimes for events, like carnivals, but thankfully vacant at the time. The warhead did not detonate and it, and the drone, have been recovered from the 10-foot crater it created upon impact. So, what is so interesting about this drone? Drones are being used by both sides in the Ukraine-Russia war and every nation across the globe are developing their own drones.

Here's the rub. This drone, we now know, was a joint development between Russia and China and it was guided by a computer, a true AI unit, designed to negotiate and survive anti-drone defenses using its own "intelligence." Using satellite and radar data the path of this AI drone has now been plotted. It was launched from a base west of Moscow, flew over Poland, then crossed Ukraine, then flew over Hungary, Romania and eventually crashed in Croatia when it finally ran out of fuel for its jet engine. According to the experts the AI controlling computer appeared to detect aircraft, including civilian passenger planes, as threats and it changed course to avoid close contact with anything flying. The drone used is an older Soviet-built drone devised from a cruise missile dating back to the early 1980's. The old cruise missile was retooled, fitted with this new guidance system, AI. The fact it carried a live warhead indicates Putin intended it to strike a target in Ukraine, but the AI guidance system went awry trying to avoid every aircraft it detected, using a radar system, and it appeared to get lost, eventually crashing in Croatia.

This was a failure, but shows where the world is headed, and why it is ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL that companies like Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Tesla, etc. break ties with China in all this AI development.

North Korean soldiers were ordered, by Fat Boy, to withdraw (retreat!) from the combat zone in Kursk. They were getting their asses kicked, were not getting support from Putin/Kremlin, and the situation was made worse for them when Ukraine smartly attacked and destroyed both NK ammo/supply depots, with the weapons, etc. needed to sustain the NK units in Russia. The Ukrans are holding the line in Kursk.

To up the ante, and to create more problems for Putin/Kremlin, the Ukrans launched another cross-border incursion into Russia. This one in the Bryansk Oblast, making it the third such incursion, along with the big one in Kursk, and the smaller one in Belgorod. By their own admission, Ukrainian high command does not expect to be able to hold the ground, but rather they want to bleed off Russia's ever-shrinking forces, further stretching the Russian army. This forces Russia to deploy troops to halt these incursions, such that those troops cannot be used elsewhere. It is a gamble for Ukraine too, as they hope it makes a difference, because meanwhile, Russian forces continue to grind out advances along the eastern front. Which side will blink first, is the question.