Reality Check's Weekly Sagarin Predictor Thread...

Yeah, but we throttled the 3rd and 4th place teams in the East. FWIW.

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 14 recap and Week 15 projections
Week 14 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—45-16 (.738), 2013 Week 14—43-16 (.729)
FBS Season to date—621-193 (.763), 2013 after Week 14—637-160 (.799)

Home field advantage is at 2.33 in the Week 15 Predictor ratings, down from 3.24 in Week 14.

Projected (current) bowl-eligible teams
80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 15, same as before Week 14. 79 teams are bowl-eligible and 47 are eliminated after Week 14, leaving 2 teams still in contention.

AAC—6 (5), ACC—11 (11), Big 12—6 (6), Big Ten—10 (10), C-USA—7* (7), Indy—3 (3), MAC—6 (6), MWC—7 (7), Pac 12—8 (8), $EC—12 (12), SBC—4* (4)

*--Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State are not included since 79 other teams are already bowl-eligible.

Louisiana Tech projected to finish 8-5, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
W 76-31 vs Rice (projected W by 10.35)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
L by 5.09 at Marshall

Other Week 14 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
Western Kentucky won 67-66 (OT) at Marshall (projected L by 17.01)
UTEP won 24-21 at home vs Middle Tennessee (projected W by 4.94)
UAB won 45-24 at USM (projected W by 6.57)
Old Dominion won 31-28 at FAU (projected L by 2.19)
UTSA won 34-27 at home vs North Texas (projected W by 0.03)

C-USA and overall records.

CONFERENCE USA EAST	C-USA	OVERALL
Marshall	7-1	11-1
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6
Western Kentucky	4-4	7-5
UAB	4-4	6-6
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6
Florida International	3-5	4-8
Florida Atlantic	2-6	3-9
CONFERENCE USA WEST	C-USA	OVERALL
Louisiana Tech	7-1	8-4
Rice	5-3	7-5
UTEP	5-3	7-5
UTSA	3-5	4-8
North Texas	2-6	4-8
Southern Mississippi	1-7	3-9

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 15 recap and Bowl projection
Week 15 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—9-5 (.643), 2013 Week 15—6-8 (.429)
FBS Season to date—630-198 (.761), 2013 after Week 15—643-168 (.793)

Home field advantage is at 2.35 in the Week 15 Predictor ratings, up from 2.33 in Week 14.

Bowl-eligible teams
81 teams are bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill).
The five teams left at home will be UAB, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Temple, and Texas State.

AAC—6, ACC—11, Big 12—7, Big Ten—10, C-USA—7*, Indy—3, MAC—6, MWC—7, Pac 12—8, $EC—12, SBC—4*

*--Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State are not included since 81 other teams are already bowl-eligible.

Louisiana Tech projected 9-5, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
W 76-31 vs Rice (projected W by 10.35)
L 23-26 at Marshall (projected L by 5.09)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl)

Other Conference USA bowl projections
UTEP projected L by 7.98 vs Utah State (New Mexico Bowl)
Marshall projected W by 11.70 vs Northern Illinois (Boca Raton Bowl)
Western Kentucky projected W by 5.03 vs Central Michigan (Bahamas Bowl)
Rice projected W by 2.35 vs Fresno State (Hawai'i Bowl)

Tech won two games it was projected to lose (ULL and NT) and lost two games it was projected to win (NSU and ODU). Those four projected results were the same from the preseason rankings except for Rice, but only the NSU and ODU losses don't agree with the projections if you use this week's ratings.

Here is a table showing the preseason, game week, and current Predictor values.

TEAM	Preseason Predictor	Pres HF	Projection	Game Tech	Game Opp.	Game HF	Game Projection	Predictor Now	HF Now	Projection Now
Tech	59.61		7-5 (7-6)				proj 8-5	77.15		proj 10-3
OU	92.83	-3.12	L by 36.34	59.61	92.83	-3.12	L by 36.34	89.27	-3.44	L by 15.56
ULL	67.61	-3.12	L by 11.12	60.49	67.28	-3.12	L by 9.91	62.83	-3.44	W by 10.88
NT	66.14	-3.12	L by 9.65	63.04	67.58	-3.89	L by 8.43	54.28	-3.44	W by 19.43
NSU	50.50	+3.12	W by 12.23	65.66	51.19	+4.29	W by 18.76	53.28	+3.44	W by 27.31
Aub	80.71	-3.12	L by 24.22	64.66	90.41	-4.27	L by 30.02	93.14	-3.44	L by 19.43
UTEP	53.53	+3.12	W by 9.20	64.91	56.97	+3.54	W by 11.48	62.89	+3.44	W by 17.70
UTSA	60.27	+3.12	W by 2.46	73.68	62.24	+3.55	W by 14.99	53.60	+3.44	W by 26.99
USM	56.16	-3.12	W by 0.33	72.54	55.37	-3.39	W by 13.78	52.50	-3.44	W by 21.21
WKU	59.56	+3.12	W by 3.17	72.16	63.83	+3.52	W by 11.85	66.34	+3.44	W by 14.25
UAB	53.19	-3.12	W by 3.30	75.04	62.24	-3.26	W by 9.54	65.74	-3.44	W by 7.97
ODU	55.96	-3.12	W by 0.53	74.74	54.07	-3.19	W by 17.48	56.26	-3.44	W by 17.45
Rice	63.94	+3.12	L by 1.21	72.91	65.80	+3.24	W by 10.35	63.98	+3.44	W by 16.61
MU	67.42	-3.12	L by 10.93	77.01	79.77	-2.33	L by 5.09	79.46	-3.44	L by 5.75

Here is an updated historical ratings table. Tech's blended rating is now 2nd best since 1998, its ELO rating is 4th best since 2002, and Predictor rating is best since 2002.

SEASON	RATING				SCHEDULE RANK
1998	61				81
1999	35				81
2000	143				105
2001	64				77
SEASON	BLENDED RATING	ELO RATING	PREDICTOR RATING		SCHEDULE RANK
2002	105	103	109		85
2003	86	83	92		65
2004	71	45	96		31
2005	79	65	94		104
2006	157	141	169		86
2007	111	109	119		81
2008	87	71	100		112
2009	89	96	78		74
2010	91	95	89		82
2011	48	58	39		74
2012	51	47	52		106
SEASON	BLENDED RATING	ELO RATING	PREDICTOR RATING	DIMIN CURVE RATING	SCHEDULE RANK
2013	166	154	167	168	144
SEASON	BLENDED RATING	ELO RATING	PREDICTOR RATING	GOLDEN MEAN RATING	SCHEDULE RANK
2014	41	60	38	37	79

Does Holtz get "Dykes money" now?

No because dykes shouldn't have gotten "dykes" money. I would like to see him get a bump, but I would like to see the bulk of "dykes" money to be used to upgrade assistant coaches.

If we get to where our assistants are getting the right amount to hang around a few years then we can start promoting coaches instead of starting from scratch every 3-5 years coaching wise.

I was just messing with the board. If we fire him over last year, we must pay him more for this year. He's not going anywhere though and USF is still paying him $500K. If he puts another championship team together next year, we probably need to get the checkbook out though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by T1

If he puts another championship team together next year, we probably need to get the checkbook out though.

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Helllll NO! This team was built with one season bandaides.

Break out the check book after, season 4 so that he doesnt go into the final year as a lame duck. Evaluate, after he has proven he can build and sustain for the majority of a contract term.

I HOPE Tech is smart enuff not to do anything right now with Holtz's contract. If he leaves, he leaves. It won't be anything close to a loss. We can easily find a coach as good or BETTER!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rabiddawg

Helllll NO! This team was built with one season bandaides.

Break out the check book after, season 4 so that he doesnt go into the final year as a lame duck. Evaluate, after he has proven he can build and sustain for the majority of a contract term.

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We need to see one more year at least before major changes are made. He has incentives that will kick in for this year to reward the performance...$25,000 for bowl appearance.

And something that needs to be added for all future Tech contacts...APR performance below a certain level should disqualify all other contract incentives.

This week's projection post now updated with Conference USA bowl projections.

Projected E$PN Bowl Challenge Cup Standings through January 4 games
Pac 12 7-1 .875
$EC 10-2 .833
C-USA 4-1 .800
SBC 2-1 .667
Big 12 4-3 .571
ACC 6-5 .545
MWC 3-4 .429
AAC 1-4 .200
MAC 1-4 .200
Indy 0-3 .000
Big Ten 0-10 .000

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RealityCheck

This week's projection post now updated with Conference USA bowl projections.

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W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl):shocked2: WOW!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by maddawg

W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl):shocked2: WOW!

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To put it into perspective, in this week's Predictor ratings Tech is #38 at 77.15 and Illinois is #79 at 65.57. UAB is #78 at 65.74.