Originally Posted by
Guisslapp
From your article:
“However, the Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM Manufacturing Index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.
The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.
Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent amid a sharp savings drawdown, and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.
Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8 percentage points on average, including 1.9 percent points in the fourth quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.
That comes as jobless claims hover around generational lows and the unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent. Productivity, however, continues to be lackluster, falling 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter against an expected rise of 1 percent.
GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6 percent, a disappointment caused primarily by a decline in inventories and a surge in imports, temporary setbacks expected to reverse in the quarters ahead.
President Donald Trump rode to office on promises of growth that would hit at least 3 percent and run as high as 6 percent.
The Atlanta Fed also was optimistic about the 2017 first quarter, estimating growth at one point to be 3.4 percent, where the final reading came in at 1.2 percent.”
