Bad News for Tech and Good News for the Sunbelt

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Originally Posted by Dirtydawg

I don't go to the MT board because I really don't give a crap about MT. You made an observation that was refuted by facts and stats that might not show head to head competetion but shows comparable competition which, incidentally, is what the rest of the college football world uses, not your two categories despite what you would want to believe, considering that it's nearly impossible to compare head to head competition and common opponents simply because most teams don't play common opponents or head to head. Think of the logistical impossibility of all the FBS schools to play enough head to head or common opponents, and you'll see that your two categories aren't how it's done. How many common opponents do the top 25 teams have or even head to head match ups? Very few.

So, the college football world assumes that these BCS conferences and perceived next level conferences are tougher because of their results against perceived tough competion. You're trying to base your argument on criteria that you wish to exist but doesn't. If the college football world used your two categories when comparing teams, there would be no preseason top 25 and really no top 25 for several weeks as no teams would have played any common opponents yet and head to head match ups would only mean that one team was better than the next but without a common opponent you wouldn't be able to tell how much better and then not until that common opponent played other common opponents later in the year etc...

Look, you've already stated that it doesn't matter what you are shown, your mind can't be changed that the top of the WAC is much better than the top of the Sunbelt simply because that's what you believe. It doesn't matter that you've been shown that our conference's OOC wins came against higher regarded teams by the experts than your conference's OOC wins. Your attempt to create criteria that renders what most people use to base those judgements on as insignificant is just a futile attempt to cover your ignorance. So, then you get all riled up when your argument is shown to be as shallow as your conference and complain about our arrogance. Once again, if you don't like it, get the hell out of here.

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They use quality wins to generate the Top 25, not to compare two mid majors. Even if the average fan did use that as a last resort criteria, I don't see where you've had higher quality wins other than Oklahoma. From what I've seen, you have TWO WAC teams ahead of the the top two teams in the Sunbelt. So, based on your experts, I was right. Also, I got "riled up" because of your rudeness and once again you've shown your true character. Go ahead: Curse me again. It makes you feel like a big man. It's easy right? Just do it and show the world your true colors. Don't even try to be civil.

Sagarin has Northern Iowa, North Dakota St. and Deleware ranked ahead of most of the WAC, MAC and Sunbelt. Yep...Those experts are real accurate.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

They use quality wins to generate the Top 25, not to compare two mid majors. Even if the average fan did use that as a last resort criteria, I don't see where you've had higher quality wins other than Oklahoma. From what I've seen, you have TWO WAC teams ahead of the the top two teams in the Sunbelt. So, based on your experts, I was right. Also, I got "riled up" because of your rudeness and once again you've shown your true character. Go ahead: Curse me again. It makes you feel like a big man. It's easy right? Just do it and show the world your true colors. Don't even try to be civil.

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Are you sir an expert? If so, please state your name and your credentials.

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Originally Posted by rtr002

Are you sir an expert? If so, please state your name and your credentials.

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From what I've seen on Sagarin...

Given a mathcup of every wac vs. sunbelt football team, home and away and the wac will be the odds and money favorite in at least 75% of the games.

Boise, Fresno and Hawaii would be double digit favorites in every game. Tech and Nevada would be heavy favorites in nearly every game.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

They use quality wins to generate the Top 25, not to compare two mid majors. Even if the average fan did use that as a last resort criteria, I don't see where you've had higher quality wins other than Oklahoma. From what I've seen, you have TWO WAC teams ahead of the the top two teams in the Sunbelt. So, based on your experts, I was right. Also, I got "riled up" because of your rudeness and once again you've shown your true character. Go ahead: Curse me again. It makes you feel like a big man. It's easy right? Just do it and show the world your true colors. Don't even try to be civil.

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You aren't looking at it the right way. It isn't our top two teams are better than the top 2 teams in the Sunbelt. Do it 1 vs. 1 , 2 vs. 2 , 3 vs. 3 ect..... And see how many times The Sunbelt comes ahead of the WAC and by what margin? Use other rankings besides Sagarin over the last 3 years. Do you think the results you will find are coincidence or some conspiracy against the Sunbelt? Believe me no one is cutting the WAC or Sunbelt any breaks. Most college football fans couldn't care less about the non-bcs conferences.

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Originally Posted by faninmonroe

Given a mathcup of every wac vs. sunbelt football team, home and away and the wac will be the odds and money favorite in at least 75% of the games.

Boise, Fresno and Hawaii would be double digit favorites in every game. Tech and Nevada would be heavy favorites in nearly every game.

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Maybe, perception plays a huge part in Vegas.

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Originally Posted by Bigdog13

You aren't looking at it the right way. It isn't our top two teams are better than the top 2 teams in the Sunbelt. Do it 1 vs. 1 , 2 vs. 2 , 3 vs. 3 ect..... And see how many times The Sunbelt comes ahead of the WAC and by what margin? Use other rankings besides Sagarin over the last 3 years. Do you think the results you will find are coincidence or some conspiracy against the Sunbelt? Believe me no one is cutting the WAC or Sunbelt any breaks. Most college football fans couldn't care less about the non-bcs conferences.

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My argument was the top vs the top and if I did argue Conf vs Conf, I don't think I'm that far off...Let me post a link for you by an informed football fan:

http://www.beltboard.com/?p=222

Name two ranking systems that you want me to use and I'll show you that the WAC and Sunbelt are very close...along with the MAC and Conf USA...

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

Maybe, perception plays a huge part in Vegas.

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Perception?

I do not think so - it is the science of math........ the day of setting lines by a few guys on sunday evening are long over. Some very advanced software sets the lines based on every stat available

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Originally Posted by faninmonroe

Perception?

I do not think so - it is the science of math........ the day of setting lines by a few guys on sunday evening are long over. Some very advanced software sets the lines based on every stat available

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Let me ask you: How is the Top 25 (which is plugged into these systems) figured at the begining of the year and why did Appy St beat Michigan (wasn't Michigan ranked when they did it?)? I'll tell you: There is a vote for the Top 25 (based on opinion) and Appy St won because they were given too little credit and Michigan was given too much.

what was the line on that game?

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

My argument was the top vs the top and if I did argue Conf vs Conf, I don't think I'm that far off...Let me post a link for you by an informed football fan:

http://www.beltboard.com/?p=222

Name two ranking systems that you want me to use and I'll show you that the WAC and Sunbelt are very close...along with the MAC and Conf USA...

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I already told you. Use Sagarin to start with take the WAC #1 vs. The Belt #1 and go down to the bottom and let us know what the WAC's record against the Belt is.

I used last year's final regular season Sagarin Predictor ratings listed below. The Predictor is what Sagarin says to use to play head-to-head matchups.

WAC--Boise State 83.63, Hawai'i 79.67, Fresno State 69.91, Nevada 65.38, Louisiana Tech 60.83, San Jose State 59.57, Utah State 57.09, New Mexico State 52.32, Idaho 52.98
SBC--Troy 72.67, Middle Tennessee State 63.29, FAU 62.01, ULM 59.34, Arkansas State 58.49, ULL 52.73, North Texas 45,79, FIU 45.77

The homefield advantage at that point was 2.59. Comparing those rankings in a complete 3-game home-neutral-away series full round-robin schedule against the other conference, here are the final standings.

WAC (24 games against the SBC)
Boise State 24-0
Hawai'i 24-0
Fresno State 21-3
Nevada 20-4
Louisiana Tech 14-10
San Jose State 14-10
Utah State 11-13
Idaho 8-16
New Mexico State 7-17
Full record 143-73 (.662)

SBC (27 games against the WAC)
Troy 21-6
Middle Tennessee State 16-11
FAU 13-14
ULM 10-17
Arkansas State 10-17
ULL 3-24
North Texas 0-27
FIU 0-27
Full record 73-143 (.338)

BRF - you completely ignored the fact (in my last post) that your argument for stating that we can't argue against the top of the sunbelt and the top of the wac being comparable/equally competitive is just as strong a reason for us to say they aren't and your reasoning is full of crap...regarding your constant reminders of no h to h games or common opponents.

Thanks for doing that. It's an interesting subject. Obviously Troy is comparable to the top of the WAC. Rating systems are not that accurate, but well use it as a measuring stick since we have nothing else. Use that same round robin against Northern Iowa, North Dakota St. and Deleware and tell me what you get...I'll tell you: Some innaccurate predictions. But, I do appreciate the effort on your part. I just think there is too much opinion built into everything.