Bad News for Tech and Good News for the Sunbelt

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Originally Posted by RealityCheck

I used last year's final regular season Sagarin Predictor ratings listed below. The Predictor is what Sagarin says to use to play head-to-head matchups.

WAC--Boise State 83.63, Hawai'i 79.67, Fresno State 69.91, Nevada 65.38, Louisiana Tech 60.83, San Jose State 59.57, Utah State 57.09, New Mexico State 52.32, Idaho 52.98
SBC--Troy 72.67, Middle Tennessee State 63.29, FAU 62.01, ULM 59.34, Arkansas State 58.49, ULL 52.73, North Texas 45,79, FIU 45.77

The homefield advantage at that point was 2.59. Comparing those rankings in a complete 3-game home-neutral-away series full round-robin schedule against the other conference, here are the final standings.

WAC (24 games against the SBC)
Boise State 24-0
Hawai'i 24-0
Fresno State 21-3
Nevada 20-4
Louisiana Tech 14-10
San Jose State 14-10
Utah State 11-13
Idaho 8-16
New Mexico State 7-17
Full record 143-73 (.662)

SBC (27 games against the SBC)
Troy 21-6
Middle Tennessee State 16-11
FAU 13-14
ULM 10-17
Arkansas State 10-17
ULL 3-24
North Texas 0-27
FIU 0-27
Full record 73-143 (.338)

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OK BFN let's look at it this way. Which conference would you say is stronger??

#1 BSU WAC
#2 Hawaii WAC
#3 Fresno WAC
#4 Nevada WAC
#5 Troy SBC
#6 MTSU SBC
#7 Tech WAC
#8 SJSU WAC
#9 FAU SBC
#10 Utah State WAC
#11 Ark St. SBC
#12 ULM SBC
#13 Idaho WAC
#14 NMSU WAC
#15 ULL SBC
#16 UNT SBC
#17 FIU SBC

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Originally Posted by RhythmDawg

BRF - you completely ignored the fact (in my last post) that your argument for stating that we can't argue against the top of the sunbelt and the top of the wac being comparable/equally competitive is just as strong a reason for us to say they aren't and your reasoning is full of crap...regarding your constant reminders of no h to h games or common opponents.

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I've told you: Showing improvement in quality wins it is reasonable to assume that a conference has improved, it is not reasonable to assume that a conference is better. I've maintained that we "may" be as good as the WAC, not that we are better. There is a difference. You are stating things as fact, I am stating things as speculation and realize that I can't know because we haven't played the games...

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

Obviously Troy is comparable to the top of the WAC.

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Two 24-0 teams and Troy is 21-6. They are a step down. No doubt Troy and Tech would be a good game and all and Troy is a pretty good team, but they aren't as good as Boise, Fresno, and probably Hawaii. Maybe even Nevada.

You are just too much of a Sun Belt homer for me.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

Thanks for doing that. It's an interesting subject. Obviously Troy is comparable to the top of the WAC. Rating systems are not that accurate, but well use it as a measuring stick since we have nothing else. Use that same round robin against Northern Iowa, North Dakota St. and Deleware and tell me what you get...I'll tell you: Some innaccurate predictions. But, I do appreciate the effort on your part. I just think there is too much opinion built into everything.

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then how in the world do you expect to convince ANY of us to acknowledge anything you have been posting? Probably as much as you would allow us to convince you, which leads me to...





why are you here posting this again? I forget.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

Thanks for doing that. It's an interesting subject. Obviously Troy is comparable to the top of the WAC. Rating systems are not that accurate, but well use it as a measuring stick since we have nothing else. Use that same round robin against Northern Iowa, North Dakota St. and Deleware and tell me what you get...I'll tell you: Some innaccurate predictions. But, I do appreciate the effort on your part. I just think there is too much opinion built into everything.

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Troy is actually more comparable with the middle of the WAC as Hawaii and Boise lost zero games and Troy lost 6. Nevada would begin the middle of the WAC and they lost 4 games in this scenario. I don't doubt that Troy has had a better football team than Tech the last couple of years. I look for that to change in the near future. :icon_wink:

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Originally Posted by Bigdog13

OK BFN let's look at it this way. Which conference would you say is stronger??

#1 BSU WAC
#2 Hawaii WAC
#3 Fresno WAC
#4 Nevada WAC
#5 Troy SBC
#6 MTSU SBC
#7 Tech WAC
#8 SJSU WAC
#9 FAU SBC
#10 Utah State WAC
#11 Ark St. SBC
#12 ULM SBC
#13 Idaho WAC
#14 NMSU WAC
#15 ULL SBC
#16 UNT SBC
#17 FIU SBC

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I'm trying to tell you that your system has biased built in. According to Sagarin (which has a bias built in) the WAC would APPEAR to be better...as it appears to be by most of the country. Perception goes a long way...

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Originally Posted by RhythmDawg

then how in the world do you expect to convince ANY of us to acknowledge anything you have been posting? Probably as much as you would allow us to convince you, which leads me to...





why are you here posting this again? I forget.

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I expect a reasonable person to realize that I am speculating and that you guys are stating facts that you can't prove...Iam posing because it's an interesting point of debate..Is that ok with you?

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

I've told you: Showing improvement in quality wins it is reasonable to assume that a conference has improved, it is not reasonable to assume that a conference is better. I've maintained that we "may" be as good as the WAC, not that we are better. There is a difference. You are stating things as fact, I am stating things as speculation and realize that I can't know because we haven't played the games...

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You haven't maintained that you "may" anything. Based on this post, how can you expect us to acknowledge your "speculation" when the only thing we have to go by to "speculate" suggests the opposite of what you suggest?

Sure, they "may" be, but perception (even though you don't like perception) suggests otherwise. And until what you want to happen, happens, we won't know. Thus perception and speculation rules. Perception is we aren't currently BCS caliber...I wonder why that is. Perception is the WAC is currently above the Sunbelt, top to bottom...I wonder why that is.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

I'm trying to tell you that your system has biased built in. According to Sagarin (which has a bias built in) the WAC would APPEAR to be better...as it appears to be by most of the country. Perception goes a long way...

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I agree with this. We are trying to tell you - your's does also.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

I expect a reasonable person to realize that I am speculating and that you guys are stating facts that you can't prove...Iam posing because it's an interesting point of debate..Is that ok with you?

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Sorry, I didn't mean to imply you should leave or anything. Just seems you are making an argument by using the same information that busts your argument, that's all.


And we are using the only evidence available to draw reasonable conclusions.

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Originally Posted by RhythmDawg

I agree with this. We are trying to tell you - your's does also.

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Right, but I'm not stating my opinion as fact.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

I'm trying to tell you that your system has biased built in. According to Sagarin (which has a bias built in) the WAC would APPEAR to be better...as it appears to be by most of the country. Perception goes a long way...

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It has bias built into the beginning but then the computer takes over and follows the formula without any bias and teams can make CONSIDERABLE advances. Do you think it is coincidence/bias that even at the end of the year the SBC schools still lagged behind their WAC counterparts?

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Originally Posted by Bigdog13

It has bias built into the beginning but then the computer takes over and follows the formula without any bias and teams can make CONSIDERABLE advances. Do you think it is coincidence/bias that even at the end of the year the SBC schools lagged behind their WAC counterparts?

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To an extent. I think it is more accurate with teams that have common opponents/ E.g/ Tennessee playes MT, but plays no WAC schools. Boise play Pac 10 schools, but no SEC schools...It's not completely accurate. Did you read tha blog that I posted the link to? There is a very thin line seperating all of the mid majors except the MWC. Change one BCS win for the MAC, WAC, Sinbelt or Conf USA and we all switch positions.

Does any one on here see any possible way that the Sunbelt could be about as good as the WAC? Maybe somewhat comparable? Is it that far fetched? I really don't think there is a significant difference between any mid major conference at this point except for the MWC. The WAC may be better some years, or the top may be better most years, but basically, we are all comparable.

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Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFn

Right, but I'm not stating my opinion as fact.

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You have made it very clear that your opinion is your reality...we are no different.


And whether we all agree or not...perception is reality. And that works both ways for you and us.