Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JAB
Based off your numbers we have a 3-10 shot at beating those guys with Lamar or a 1-10 shot if it's aTm. In other words, "NOT VERY LIKELY EITHER WAY!"
What's the likelihood we beat just Virginia & Illinois?
Lamar is a 50 point dog in your formula, if you want to add them add in EVERYONE on both schedules and see the difference.
Your BcS dream is just that. A Dream! But IMO, if we beat aTm we are much more likely to beat the other two. So playing aTm actually HELPS our BcS dreams!
Risk vs. Reward.
Our schedule was set up perfectly for a BC$ run with all of our returners.
If Louisiana Tech ever plays in a BCS bowl, I thought next year would be the one.
Of course it's not likely, but I think it's the only shot we would ever have at the BC$.
I would sacrifice a few hundred thousand dollars for our best chance ever for multi-millions and everything else that goes with it that you can't put a pricetag on.
DR had a choice. We did not need the money because our schedule was already set with 2 money games. The A&M money is just lagniappe IMO.
BTW your last sentence makes no sense to me. How does replacing a guaranteed win with a team that will be our toughest opponent help us run the table for a BC$ bid?
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
If it's on Thursday I can think of several fans that won't be there.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Why are we worried about the extra money we would make by playing in Shreveport over Ruston? If we were already prepared to play the current schedule I hope we were planning to be in the black. If so then ANY extra money gained by playing aTM, which I'm against all the way around, would just be gravy.
As others have stated it's not about being scared it's about being smart. We should play BCS schools that we are likely to be close to an even line with and expect to beat them. As we beat them and win conference we get better recruits. Then we begin to schedule slightly better opponents who we are now playing as an even line opponent, we expect to beat them...wash rinse repeat. If I have to hear about how ULL is the team on the rise in our state while they beat WMHS type teams and we lose close to BCS teams I'm going to go crazy and might be forced to go to Lafayette to burn down a trailer.
Let's schedule for success and slowly continue to build the profile of our program by WINNING. We've already done the anyone anytime anywhere thing in the 90s and here we are in 2012.
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Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dawg06
Risk vs. Reward.
Our schedule was set up perfectly for a BC$ run with all of our returners. Our schedule has a 30% chance (at the very best) of us going perfect. That's not perfect
If Louisiana Tech ever plays in a BCS bowl, I thought next year would be the one. Are we dropping out of football next year? Keep winning and we will have more opportunities
Of course it's not likely, but I think it's the only shot we would ever have at the BC$. I will not conceed future teams.
I would sacrifice a few hundred thousand dollars for our best chance ever for multi-millions and everything else that goes with it that you can't put a pricetag on. Look, I'll spend a buck on a lotto ticket for the chance to win. But I'm not going to conceed my life on that one ticket! This season is not our final hora!
DR had a choice. We did not need the money because our schedule was already set with 2 money games. The A&M money is just lagniappe IMO. HA!!! There is never EXTRA money! NEVER!
What this is is the perfect team (aTm), to play at the perfect time (before school starts & with a senior heavey team), at the perfect place (ok not perfect, but aTm isn't Miss St or even Ole Miss. They get the bigger venue)(All home games against aTm games will be played in Shreveport in the DR era, so that we get the game at all at "home" is PERFECT!)
BTW your last sentence makes no sense to me. How does replacing a guaranteed win with a team that will be our toughest opponent help us run the table for a BC$ bid? Opening our season with what should be our hardest opponent will help this team in all future games in the season......if we win!
Beating Lamar and 2.5 FCS schools does NOTHING for our BcS hopes. Infact I bet no team has ever played in a BcS bowl with 2.5 or more FCS teams on the schedule so you can throw out all the past non AQ teams and their BcS bids as proof that we could be there.
Look, perfect is all home games and a team that can beat everyone with our 2nd string.
So this isn't perfect.
It's not bad either!
But I will say DR is still a pimp!
(I can't beleive NO ONE comented on my pic!)
Attachment 8868
"Sumtimes..... it's hard to be a ho!"
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldog
Why are we worried about the extra money we would make by playing in Shreveport over Ruston? If we were already prepared to play the current schedule I hope we were planning to be in the black. If so then ANY extra money gained by playing aTM, which I'm against all the way around, would just be gravy.
As others have states it's not about being scared it's about being smart. We should play BCS schools that we are likely to be close to am even line with and expect to beat them. As we beat them and win conference we get better recruits. Then we begin to schedule slightly better opponents who we are now playing as an even line opponent, we expect to beat them...wash rinse repeat. If I have to hear about how ULL is the team on the rise in our state while they beat WMHS type teams and we lose close to BCS teams I'm going to go crazy and might be forced to go to Lafayette to burn down a trailer.
Let's schedule for success and slowly continue to build the profile of our program by WINNING. We've already done the anyone anytime anywhere thing in the 90s and here we are in 2012.
That part made me LOL. :laugh:
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
I think 2013 will be the last year that non-AQ teams will ever have the opportunity to play in a BC$ bowl. I think the BC$ as we know it will end when their current contract runs up. With all of our seniors in 2012, I don't think we will be better in 2013. I see only 2 more opportunties for BC$ busters before the death of the BCS.
You can continue to believe that we wouldn't make it in the top 14 if we would have gone undefeated with Lamar on the schedule. I've stated why that is not true about 5 times already, and I'm not doing it again.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
I haven't read this whole thread so sorry if I bring up old points. But anyways... Dykes has said that he doesn't want the schedule to change, but we are doing it anyway? How in the hell do we expect to keep him around if we are taking a win from him to which will most likely be a loss? Look at our history with A&M we never play them close.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dawg06
I've stated why that is not true about 5 times already, and I'm not doing it again.
OK, will you just post the percentage for beating just Illinois and Virginia then?
That should be easier than posting both complete schedules either way!
Thanks!
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
What were our percentages of beating Nevada in Reno last year? Listen, we are in NO position to pass up a home game against Texas A&M in hopes that we might go undefeated for the rest of the season. In fact, the logic that we COULD go undefeated by playing Lamar instead of A&M is still chancing it. We have the team to play against quality opponents. I don't get the reasoning of passing up the opportunity of playing the Aggies in a home game. Possibly winning the game outweighs all the odds of maybe losing it.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JAB
OK, will you just post the percentage for beating just Illinois and Virginia then?
That should be easier than posting both complete schedules either way!
Thanks!
29.1% by my algorithm
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
boxerdog
What were our percentages of beating Nevada in Reno last year? Listen, we are in NO position to pass up a home game against Texas A&M in hopes that we might go undefeated for the rest of the season. In fact, the logic that we COULD go undefeated by playing Lamar instead of A&M is still chancing it. We have the team to play against quality opponents. I don't get the reasoning of passing up the opportunity of playing the Aggies in a home game. Possibly winning the game outweighs all the odds of maybe losing it.
I believe we were favorites in Reno according to Sagarin.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FishingBack
If it's on Thursday I can think of several fans that won't be there.
Exactly. U gotta be kiddin me!!! This jazz again? (Remember...'03..the Miami game) Thursday leaves out a lot of fans, and, a lot of money that won't be spent by these fans because of that. THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE PLAYED ON A SATURDAY!!!
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dawg06
29.1%
So playing Lamar helps/hurts us in no way? That means it's a zero sum game and we lose because the game won't count as a win?
Dawg06, you usually have pretty good stats. But if you are saying there is absolutely no difference in our chances in playing in a BcS game with or without Lamar in our schedule then we need to just drop Lamar completely.
THIS... doesn't work.
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
metrydawg
Exactly. U gotta be kiddin me!!! This jazz again? (Remember...'03..the Miami game) Thursday leaves out a lot of fans, and, a lot of money that won't be spent by these fans because of that. THIS GAME NEEDS TO BE PLAYED ON A SATURDAY!!!
DUDE!
Miami in '03 might be the largest attended Tech home game of all times! Thanks for the my point!
Re: Tech vs TAMU in Shreveport this fall
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JAB
So playing Lamar helps/hurts us in no way? That means it's a zero sum game and we lose because the game won't count as a win?
Dawg06, you usually have pretty good stats. But if you are saying there is absolutely no difference in our chances in playing in a BcS game with or without Lamar in our schedule then we need to just drop Lamar completely.
THIS... doesn't work.
What? You just asked me what I thought our chances were to beat both Virginia and Illinois. I answered 29.1%, which is the same number to 3 significant figures when Lamar is included. That means that Lamar doesn't hurt us at all.
I assigned us a 99.75% chance of beating Lamar in Ruston. Basically an automatic win. A free pass to stay undefeated going into Week 2. That would help us.
I assigned us a 39.70% chance of beating Texas A&M in Shreveport.
That trade significantly reduces our chances at a BC$ bowl.
