Russia

Putin stands to lose half of his shadow fleet as now insurance companies are announcing they will no longer insure tankers operating in the Black Sea. Half of Putin's shadow fleet are foreign-owned ships that Russia leases. If the tanker is blown up, the owners depend on the insurance, of course. But now insurance companies are saying not anymore. And some NATO countries are "talking tough" saying they are about to start seizing any ships not meeting international maritime laws for registration and safety. I'll believe it when I see it.

Retired US general Ben Hodges has a YouTube channel where he has been following the Ukraine war. Recently he has been commenting that the war is no longer a stalemate, Ukraine is winning. It is true that Ukraine has enjoyed some recent tactical victories, but strategically, not much has changed that I can see. General Hodges is better qualified than me to make such judgements, so I hope he is right.