The debt and the recent share dilution make AMC a hard pass for me.
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The debt and the recent share dilution make AMC a hard pass for me.
Fair enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Just for clarification there has been no recent share dilution. AMC had kicked around the idea of issuing new shares, 55 million, I think was the number, but they haven't and have taken that option off the table. They did finish selling into the market the remainder of the float, 43 million shares, and generated $430+ million in cash for itself. That "dump" if you will, combined with Wanda's 30 million share dump should have wrecked the PPS. But it's had only a minimal effect on the price.
Now, I will say those Apes who are counting on astronomical returns...some say $100,000/share :shocked2:...will be disappointed. But, $500+ maybe approaching $1,000/share is very doable. Also, the HFs learned a valuable lesson from their GME experience and are employing every trick in the book to minimize their losses. They are being proactive and are on the offensive, using every dirty trick in the book. If, big IF, retail investors crack, the HFs will win. But, if retail investors hold (HODL) the losses for the hedgies will reach dizzying heights. While this is different from GME insomuch as the HFs are using different tactics, it is also having an adverse effect for them. At no time with GME did retail investors hold such a high percentage of the float, close to 90% for AMC, and also the HFs didn't create near as many naked shares for GME as they have for AMC. GME peaked at $483/share on an average of a mere 20 million shares daily average volume. AMC is smoking that with 96 million avg. daily volume.
GME was big.....$483/share. AMC is gonna be gigantic!
Or....it could fizzle and be an ordinary $20 stock :icon_roll: . But, this is part of the fun!
What service(s) do y'all use for tracking and trading?
I use E Trade and TD Ameritrade. These are the only trading platforms I am currently using. I have the apps of Robinhood, Reddit, and Webull on my phone but I have not traded thru any of those, and probably won't. But they each offer some informational resources that are convenient when I am away from my laptop. I had a regular broker, which was A.G. Edwards at one time, but I closed that account years ago. Was too expensive and antiquated.Quote:
Originally Posted by JuBru
I have tried several trading advisory services over the years. Motley Fool used to be pretty good, but they have sold their souls to the big hedge funds, now Motley Stool. Most of the ones out promoting themselves, like Brownstone (Jeff Brown), are nothing but ripoff marketing/publishing schemes. After a lot, and I mean a lot, of looking I have found a couple of email newsletters worth reading. They do offer "premium" services for a monthly fee, but I find their free information very helpful. One is called Elite Traders and another is Stock Twits. The rest offer only those LONG videos of some so-called expert promising to disclose "the one stock you need to own" but never does, all they do is tell you they have series of DVDs and books worth $4,900 but you can get the whole set for just $99. Wow! what a bargain.
Both E Trade and TD Ameritrade offer information, guidance, "expert" advice on their platforms, which I refer to at times. But I find it still comes down to you doing your own DD. Have to look at a company's financials, all those measuring ratios, industry news and reports, and a general understanding of the economy and the geopolitical forces at work to get a complete picture of any company/stock. And then, after all of that, it's still a bit of a crap shoot. The stock market is not all numbers and sensible analysis. There are those "silly" forces out there driving values up and down! Have to understand the difference between a good company and a good stock.
On the latter...AMC is a great example. It is not a particularly good company, but it is a very good stock right now. :shocked2:
Most online trading platforms are now commission free with convenient way to track your holdings and watchlists.
Stocktwits is useful for quickly finding the news that is moving a stock (assuming it isn’t one that is widely reported on).
This is a weird time to be investing and not for the faint of heart. You have to balance both conviction and discipline - and those forces can pull you in different directions.
The market can look expensive based on trailing P/Es (but there was a shutdown) of fairer on forward P/Es. It is always forward looking, trying to anticipate what that future E is going to look like and assigning a fair risk premium to it, which is a function of interest rates and the competing alternative places to put your money (most of which have also run up, real estate, bonds, alternatives).
The trick to obtaining alpha, in my view, is understanding the history of how the market moves, have a malleable view of what you think the future looks like (don’t mix in politics), understand the companies that you buy, diversify, maintain balance between conviction and discipline, and maintain a laser focus on your investment objectives and time horizons. Review your portfolio regularly to make sure that it is consistent. Hedge funds have to win consistently in all market conditions. You don’t have to if you have a long horizon.
Also, understanding technical analysis is helpful for picking entry points and exit points in the short term.
Worth watching...
r/Superstonk Live - Wes Christian - May 18, 2021 - YouTube
AMC is testing the market today. Was up 20% yesterday and is up pre-market so far, but the big guys, the evil hedge funds, won't go quietly. They will employ their dirty tricks, use paid shills to write stupid articles and to post nonsense on message boards, and of course try at least one more time to drive the price down with naked shares, fake shares, and their dark pool tricks. But, the numbers don't lie. It's a mathematical equation....provided retail investors HOLD! That's the BIG QUESTION, will the Apes hold? Even my own brother sold his 150 shares yesterday. I chastised him for it.
It's not just the money, it's also about fighting the illegal activities of the hedge funds, as discussed in that YouTube link I posted. I'm all for free markets, good ole capitalism, but these snake oil salesmen cheat the system and ruin it for everyone else.
Who cares? What value does AMC really provide?
There is so much wrong with this post...oh wait! it's Goosey, of course!Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
I will pull out what I think is the single most important issue re: AMC and AMC stock. And, it's this: it happens to be a battleground in the fight for a truly free and fair stock market. This is akin to asking of that town in Pennsylvania in the summer of 1863: Who cares? What value does Gettysburg really provide? The answer, NONE in of itself. But plenty for it HAPPENED TO BE A KEY BATTLEGROUND in that war. If you understand the analogy then you understand what makes AMC valuable.
Well, it's making me a ton of money!!! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Only mistake I made is the same one I always seem to make....I should have bought more!
Only makes money when you actually sell. For the greater fool theory to work out, you have to sell to an even greater fool.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
So...we can put you down for a 1,000 shares? Just for starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Still a hard pass.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Anyone fooled with buying stock warrants?
Let me rephrase that...has anyone bought stock warrants, which are kind of like options with puts and calls. Not many companies offer stock warrants, only about 300 do, and they are sold directly by the company. They have their pros and cons, but you can make a ton of money when/if you buy the right ones at the right time. But, while there is risk, you don't have to risk a lot to make a lot. Often less than $5 gets you into a nice position.
I don't know much about warrants, but I am willing to learn!
Apparently I should have made AMC a "hard pass" too. Now I have this huge tax bill to pay! Oh woe is me! I should have listened to the smart guy who voted for Harris-Biden and stayed away from this GOLD MINE of a stock! :laugh:
Got more just like it coming along, but I guess I'll just keep those to myself. Would hate to make a FOOL out of myself again, taking on this huge tax burden!
Of course, I am just having some fun tweaking my favorite poster, Goosey! :D
But seriously...
in the bigger picture the reason I have joined the Ape Army and been a vocal advocate for buying/holding AMC stock (and some others) is exactly what is going on today. Already today the SEC has halted (paused) trading of AMC stock three times to give the hedge funds time to catch their breath and seek a way out of this trap! This is the SEC choosing sides between longs vs. shorties, and it's not their place to do so. A free market will shake things out and the weaker hedge funds will fold like the house of cards they are. Retail investors are kicking the so-called pros in the ass!
This is just the beginning too. There are already ground-swell, grassroots movements building in other heavily shorted stocks. They will all follow the same path as GME and AMC and once again the hedge funds will get caught in these multi $billion traps they find themselves in. Or! they can ditch the illegal fake share/dark pool tricks and allow the market to determine the value of equities based on fundamentals. And, most importantly, the average retail investor will have a level playing field to invest on.
Was it anything other than the standard “circuit breakers” that halt trading when stocks go up or down by a certain percent over a certain time?
AMC up 95% today alone!!! Congrats to anyone who had stock before today... Helluva return!!
Ah, me! opened a position back in December for 1.95/share. Later added at different times till I had 3,500 shares at a cost average of $8.03. Sold some today at $65 to cover my entire investment, with a small profit. Still own 3,000+ shares at a $0 cost basis (on my books). Like I posted, only mistake I made was not buying more.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
There are others just like GME and AMC starting to stir. Can history repeat itself again...ah, yes! when you have these so-called experts and stubborn shorties who think they know better than the Ape Army.
There were at least 4 stoppages, maybe 5, as I had to step away for a period to handle some real estate duties. If it was some automated "breaker" that is bad enough and I don't like it. If it was some human deciding to try to protect the losing side, that is unacceptable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
One correction... it is not the SEC putting the brakes on, it is the NYSE. Carry on!
It is automatic and designed to reduce the risk of flash crashes caused by momentum algo trading. It reduces systemic risk and anyone trying to game the market has to contend with the circuit breakers.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Well D80.. I jumped on the AMC bandwagon last Friday.. was only hoping for 10% quick money. Well I sold today after 5 days for almost 40% return.. I'll take that all day everyday. My luck it will continue its run.. but I'm very happy with this. Helps improve my overall for the year as some of my investments in mutual funds haven't had the same ROR as they have in the last 3 years under Trump. I just hope that we don't go back to the stale 4-5% ROR.
Good for you! Sometimes it's hard to pull the trigger to maximize your gains and not suffer a "Ooops!" I should have sold yesterday glitch. I do that a lot. Did it to myself again earlier this week.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
I have sold most of my AMC holding, had about an $8 cost average and sold at close to $58 overall. Still sitting on 200 shares. That's it! Holding these just for the fun of it. Might sell when the price hits $1,000/sh like some goofy people think it will, hah!
Congrats!
GE is doing a 1 for 8 reverse split. There is no, one, consensus of opinion on whether this is a good or bad thing. Opinions are running 50-50. In general, not just looking at GE, sometimes they help...like lifting a stock onto an exchange and that begets additional exposure and interest, and sometimes it is a sign of desperation, a dying last-minute attempt to save a drowning company.
GE has been taking steps to shed itself of albatrosses, weak holdings, and shore up its financials, so why this seemingly desperate measure, and why now?
Come on SEC, just do it! One more easy step left...
How Soon Will Hedge Funds Get Margin Called? (AMC) - Franknez.com
A hedge fund, HQed in London, has declared bankruptcy and goes down in flames thanks to the Ape Army and the battlefields of GME and AMC. White Square Capital will be the first of many, many hedgies to be shot out of the sky by the Apes. Yeah, baby!
I thought this was supposed to be a serious thread…
VERY serious!Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Oh, I suppose Janet Yellen is one of the "chosen few" Swampers/commies who get a free pass no matter what, eh? You will note I did not offer an opinion on the matter, only mentioned her name because she was mentioned in the video. Never even considered, even for a second, there was anything special about it or that someone on this forum would have his feathers ruffled by it. But...now without provocation you have once again revealed your true self(not that I needed the revelation) perhaps others here who tend to error by giving you the benefit of the doubt will have their eyes opened a tad more. And since YOU made an issue of it...
I do find it disturbing how these Swampers get these speaking fees for entities they regulate, etc...
Was Janet Yellen a government official when she was receiving speaking fees?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
You think that matters?Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Absolutely. You think it doesn’t?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
No.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Former Fed chairpersons, Bernanke and Greenspan also got speaking fees.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
In America, we generally believe that people should be free to make a living, even after they leave their government job.
And of course if being paid by banks and investment firms before getting the Secretary of Treasury job, that would also have disqualified Mnuchin.
The fact that Yellen is a rotten Dem makes it worse, but truthfully The Swamp has open admission for any political flunky willing to sell their soul. In Yellen's case she has been in and out of government positions from the Federal Reserve to Sec. of Treasury and on all kinds of politically appointed boards. In a government position, gets outlandish speaking fees from the entities she has regulated, back into a government position with regulatory authority over the very entities paying her outlandish speaking fees... Get it, yet?
You are a bigger fool than I thought you were (and that's saying something since you top the list) if you think there can't be pre-emptive influence peddling.
You think she thought she was going back into government when she left the Fed? How could she have known that she was going to be the next pick for Treasury?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Do YOU get it yet?
Btw, Mnuchin has signed for the speaking circuit, too.
Holding an official office is a mere formality. Even when Swampers are out-of-office the influence peddling never stops. They still have connections...lobbyists...does anyone, except goofy Goosey, really, honestly think Yellen is worth even $10 as a guest speaker? They don't give a rat's azz what silly crap she spews in her speech, it's the behind-closed-doors talking they are paying for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
BTW, I don't give a rat's butt about Mnuchin. He's a former hedgie...
Yellen was far more powerful as the Fed chairperson than she is as Treasury Secretary. Fed policy is the largest macro driver of the market. Getting any edge from hearing from a former Fed chair is worth more than any other guru speaker you could possibly have.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
LOL! whatever
Looks like AMC is approaching $100.00 Missed out on a 100% gain... story of my life.. lol. BUT I will be happy to take my 40% to the bank. Goosey missed out on a big run.. Congrats on the big return D80..
Bitcoin continues to fall.. wonder if it will drop below 30K soon.. Looks as if it is heading south quickly.
I wouldn’t call $55 approaching $100, but have fun playing swing trades. Not my jam.
Would much rather hold some BTC and Ether than AMC for speculating. Plus you can stake the ether and make income off it.
I think AMC is played out. I hope to sell the remaining shares above $60 and be done with it. Can't complain one bit. I would take more runs like AMC has been any day! Of course Goosey is too smart to settle for a mere 725% return in about 3 months. He is much smarter/wiser than Warren Buffet and earns returns of a gazillion% on his investments. His portfolio grows in numbers to match Biden's election returns! All a figment of his imagination...Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
The HFs have figured out the game. They were caught by surprise by GME and it topped out at about $485/share (not bad!) but they have employed all of their dirty tricks in their fight against AMC's Ape Army and have it under control. I doubt AMC sees $100 or even $80/share. I hope it does soar past $100, for the sake of all those devoted souls fighting the good fight. But, I doubt it...
The HFs are part of the big Swamp, the one that includes the smaller, but more powerful DC Swamp. They have Yellen and all the other Swampers accepting kickbacks galore to help the HFs survive this.
I have enough volatility in my portfolio with SPCE (which has done just about as well as AMC over the same period), CRISPR stocks (NTLA and EDIT) and crypto. Also, many other multi-baggers like most people that have held stocks over the recent bull market have also enjoyed. Booking gains when these take up too large a percent of the portfolio is part of prudent portfolio management, so I have had to prune these and others (CAT, DIS, JPM, ENPH). I have let a few others, like NVDA and GOOGL, run making the positions a bit more lopsided. Some of these “winners” that are in markets with high CAGRs are more difficult to keep portfolio discipline with.
I don’t want or need exposure to stocks whose only investment basis is the greater fool theory. Don’t see the point of risking the capital or the opportunity cost. Good for those that do.
Mark Cuban, among others, have poo-poohed being diverse, advocating for finding a few investments that work and focusing on those. Peter Lynch said usually the best stocks to buy are ones you already own. That is, add to your position in them. Okay, nothing wrong with sticking with what you know and what has been doing well. But! there is the old "too many eggs in one basket" thingy, so some diversification makes sense.
I have gotten a bit too diverse here recently. I now hold 44 different stocks across 3 trading platforms. Funny thing is, I have 10 stocks on my watch list and will probably open a position in several of those too. I do have sell orders on 8 of my lousy performers and hope to unload them fairly soon. AMC is one of three of the so-called meme stocks I hold, and the other two are on my list of 8 to dump soon. There might be another GME or AMC happen, and if one does I hope to jump on the train and ride it for as far as it goes. I could see AMC was going to take off and posted here saying as much. A couple of others some were touting haven't taken off and probably never will, such as BB.
But I am a conservative investor and prefer to add to my positions in boring stocks like JNJ, GLW, VZ, KO... But! I also love divie-payers and have loaded up on REITs and utilities and those high-risk/HUGE divie-payers too. I usually go in light, like recently I opened a position in ORC (500 shares) mostly just for the fun and thrill of it! Just couldn't ignore that monthly 15% return. ORC is not a safe, long term investment at this point in its brief history (launched in 2013). It's share price has trended down but I think it has found its bottom now and at these prices it's worth a shot.
This is my direct stock holdings, but I also hold annuities, mutual funds, and have positions in some of the best ETFs too.
Krispy Kreme is going IPO today, under the ticker DNUT. Starting at $17.
Market is open but retail investors are locked out for the time being. Just another example of what is wrong with the whole stock market. NOT! that DNUT is a particularly good stock to pick up, but retail investors should have the same shot at this one, and all others, as the big guys.
That is because DNUT chose the IPO route rather than direct listing or SPAC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Years ago I had an Etrade account because they got in on IPO pricing. I never qualified, and I'm not sure who they "allowed" to get in on IPO at start. It was back when everything that IPO'd would go up 25-50% first day. It was so easy to make money back then. I expect Krispy Kreme to do very well.. I know my family keeps them in business, so I may as well own some stock..:D
You think the government should force the private equity firm owning Krispy Kreme to sell their initial shares to retail?
No, of course not.. Etrade advertised about members getting to get in on IPO's.. I don't know who they allowed to have this, but I was never allowed IPO pricing.. had to wait until available on market..Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
No, but I do want a fair, level playing field. Either remove ALL laws, like insider trading, which got Martha Stewart in trouble, or have laws that allow everyone the same shot. In this case DNUT is selling to big HFs at discounts and allowing them to establish strong positions giving them a HUGE advantage over millions of average retail investors and smaller investment firms. Why not have DNUT trading on the open market when the bell rang this morning? Is it because the big hedgies are afraid the price would shoot skyward and they would have to compete in a fair market? Ah...yes it is. It's part of the overall problem with the market: naked shorting, synthetic shares, dark pools...need to de-empower the HFs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Because DNUT’s owners didn’t want to do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
DNUT's owners probably don't want to pay taxes either, should they be given a pass?Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
You think the government should tell them who they can sell shares to?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
DNUT trading now on the open market. The HFs bought in at an average price of 15.50. Retail investors and small investment firms should boycott the shares and Krispy Kreme stores and drive the stock price down to close to $0. Send a powerful message that the BS has to stop. The Ape Army can take up this challenge too.
This was brought up before her nomination. Yellen agreed to recuse herself for one year from being involved in anything related to Citadel dating back to her last paid speaking engagement with them in October 2020. Don't believe she is abiding by her promise, so ethics proceedings are in order and any waiver she has received should be revoked.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
It is ludicrous that the basic market strategy of "buy and hold" is being treated as "market manipulation" now that those really guilty of market manipulation are losing their shirts because their games have been exposed.
Exactly, you get it. And as usual Goosey is off in la-la land. No, I don't want the "government" controlling how private entities conduct their business, but the problem is the "government" has chosen sides and IS controlling how business is being conducted in the stock market. That's the issue. The SEC is a government agency and has failed to create and maintain a level playing field.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Market pull back today...is this just a hiccup or are we seeing the beginnings of a correction? No one knows for sure...not even the so-called experts...but that shouldn't stop people from having opinions and making a good guess. Certainly no one has been deterred to express opinions on this forum (BB&B) before!
I think some kind of correction will happen. The economy's fundamentals simply don't support the inflated valuations of the stock market (in general). The lingering effects of the China virus shutdown and the very, very, very weak so-called leadership from the WH and Congress are contributing to a sluggish recovery. Unemployment remains too high...not that there aren't jobs available...higher taxes and a general adverse attitude toward "business" have drug the economy down. Too many companies (stocks) are over-valued and I think some kind of correction will occur.
Just as an example, look at Kraft-Heinze (KHC), a solid "blue chip" company/stock with a long history trading at close to $40/share. Yet, it has a mere .44/share earnings and thus a high PE ratio of 90. It cannot sustain this valuation. There are hundreds of such examples.
Not offering investing advice, just striking up a conversation...
Today’s sell off is most likely driven by the 10 year Treasury yield. Now, whether that is being driven by fundamental or technical reasons (or a combination of both, maybe more likely) is the question. Did bond investor’s overestimate inflation? Overestimate growth? Underestimate how dovish the Fed will continue to be?
A significant part of the move today is likely people selling equities at record levels to pay for being out of position on their bond durations.
Have seen commentary on over-estimating inflation, but other than how that affects bond-holders one would think it would inspire equities' investors to pour money into stocks.
I am moving toward a conservative, divie-paying, BORING! portfolio as quickly as possible. But first I have to liquidate positions in 8 speculative stocks I am currently upside down on. Several are close but the others....whew! will have to hold them for awhile to get back into the green, or on advice of my CPA dump them for the tax benefit.
BORING is good sometimes, and this is one of those times!
Bond yields go down when people buy more bonds. Of course, we have the Fed buying Treasuries at a high clip and internationals buying US Treasuries because the delta COVID variant is causing a growth scare and a flight to their local bonds, which creates a more attractive premium for US Treasuries.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
People that were short the 10 year because they expected the yields to go up are caught on the wrong side and they have to sell equities to get out of their short positions.
Also, the fact that Treasury yields are slipping itself can cause Algos to sell stocks…
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Sounds like the voice of experience....
Not me. I don’t hedge IRs (or anything else) with short positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
There was a general consensus that the 10 year yield was going to keep going up (which I think it will over the medium to long term), which was going to continue to support the cyclicals and hurt growth stocks that rely on cash flows in the distant future. It was a crowded trade that had to unwind when demand for 10 year Treasuries became significantly higher than expected (particularly this week).
I am fine holding Financials and REITs, which are my main hedges for a portfolio that is overweight secular growth.
Although valuations are on the high side (supported by low yields and high growth rates from the bottom in 2020), KHC is not a representative example. Their trailing P/E includes a massive write down last year. AMZN with its high growth businesses has a lower trailing P/E.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Given the anomaly in earnings from last year, I find it more helpful to value in forward earnings (relatively).
Timing... :icon_roll:
Of course, I am the type of person who could catch 9 huge, fat bass but worry over the one that got away.
We barely pulled back to last week’s levels. That wasn’t even a “correction.”Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Wasn't referring to the market in general, but to two specific equities I learned about AFTER they had already begun their runs up! They had both been "in my notes" which are stocks I check on and then add to my watch list if warranted. Been very busy recently with real estate deals and I simply missed these two. Dagnabit!Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
As for a correction (10%) there was a pundit on CNBC this morning cautioning one is coming.
There is always one coming. Safest bet ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Yeah, right...but I think he meant sooner rather than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8ea1033c...-invested.html
How Much $10,000 Invested This Year In AMC Stock Is Worth Now
I didn't get in at the beginning.. or make as much as D80 did.. but I will happily take my 40% return in one week..
And you can double your money in one hand at a casino.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
I did okay...:DQuote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
I am out of AMC, sold the remaining shares yesterday. Just got tired of watching it. I was spending too much time/energy monitoring the stock, reading articles, and watching YouTube videos. It was fun for awhile, but it got old and I think AMC is pretty much played out. Of course, if it does shoot to the moon....chit! :icon_roll:
Yahoo Finance has an article today saying the meme stock revolution will continue, and the writer offers some reasons, but in truth only GME and AMC have been measurably successful for its loyal legions. Other attempts to drive up the price and squeeze the HFs have met with, at best, some very moderate gains only. I support the effort to shine the light on all the seedy, unethical, and really CRIMINAL activity of the HFs and those in control. A small retail investor with his $100 should be able to operate on the same playing field as Warren Buffet and the huge HFs. I don't begrudge anyone or any entity making a bunch of $money, I just want that guy (....I am that guy too!) with his small amount to have the exact same chances as the big guys.
NO MORE NAKED SHORTING, SYNTHETIC SHARES, DARK POOLS AND....
no more entities like Citadel who play two roles as an exchange and as investor. That is like Tom Brady being BOTH a player and a referee in the same game! Would football fans tolerate that? Of course not, yet that is exactly what is going on right now re: the stock market.
Sorry to anybody who has lost on crypto currency over the past seven days. It’s my fault
I'll send you a bill...Quote:
Originally Posted by PawDawg
If you could only own 5 stocks, which would you? From a blog I just read the consensus top 5 are all dividend aristocrats or kings:
JNJ, MMM, T, AAPL, PG
This blog was published prior to T's dividend cut.
Others who made the top 10: HRL, LOW, WM, PEP, CL
Inflation Hits a 13-Year High.
LINK
quote:
Defenders of big-government pandemic interventions have insisted that any price inflation these schemes have caused is just temporary. But even more data just came in showing price inflation hitting new highs—further spotlighting the destructive consequences of these reckless policies.
The federal government just released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2021, an imperfect but useful metric that tracks general price inflation in a bundle of typical consumer goods. Basically, it attempts to illustrate how much prices are rising for the goods average Americans buy regularly. The June edition shows prices once again sharply on the rise, with a 0.9 percent increase from May to June. From June 2020 to June 2021, the data show that consumer prices rose a whopping 5.4 percent.quote:
Some specific goods saw particularly drastic price hikes year-over-year. Chiefly, used cars and trucks rose 45.2 percent in price, while energy prices spiked 24.5 percent.
This all represents the biggest year-over-year price increase measured since 2008. In other words, price inflation just hit a 13-year high.quote:https://fee.org/media/39985/screen-s...06566700000000
While price inflation has many causes, we can trace much of the current surge back to the policy of the Federal Reserve, the central bank controlling the supply of US dollars. The Fed essentially created trillions of new dollars to pump into the economy in the name of “stimulus.”
“The quantity of money has increased more than 32.9% since January 2020,” FEE economist Peter Jacobsen explained in May. “That means nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since then. If more dollars chase the exact same goods, prices will rise.”
Our system has really gone off the rails. I used to cringe when Trump extolled the virtues of negative interest rates.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
No expert thinks the Fed should not have done what they did. Where there is disagreement is how quickly the Fed should now pull back their bond buying (120 billion per month) and to what extent and whether they should be buying mortgage back securities.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
One is always coming.
You're a frickin' genius! Next thing you'll say is it is going to rain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Unless you get the timing right, the prediction is at best, useless, or at worst, harmful to investment performance.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
There are legit reasons to be mindful of a correction happening soon. Such as inflated P/E's. I think (yes, it is an opinion) the market is on a razor's edge right now and it wouldn't take much of anything to push it over the cliff for a 10%+ pullback. Example: a resurgence of the China virus causing an economic downturn. Thanks in large part to no leadership in Washington, the recovery trying to come out of the virus crisis is sluggish and thus the economic fundamentals are a house of cards.
If the economic fundamentals were a house of cards, you would see something far greater than a 10 percent correction, and it wouldn’t be called a correction.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Corrections are a healthy, but timing them is problematic. I agree that there aren’t huge portions of the market that are undervalued right now and that makes things feel very “toppy”.
But we have also been seeing a rolling correction moving through the market since March where different sectors have sold off and that money rotated into other sectors. An alternative to a correction at the index level is just continued volatility and consolidation as earnings catch up with valuations.
Here's a more optimistic view of the market, at least for the rest of the year...link wouldn't work, so in summary.
Yahoo Finance writer Myles Udland cites history to support the market enjoying more gains in 2021. So far, the market has gained 16.2% this year, which places it in the middle of other such years with similar metrics. Things like what bonds have been doing, the US Treasury, inflation, employment numbers, etc...According to Udland the stock market's appreciation in value is nothing special in 2021, when compared to historic records, and he predicts a slow and steady climb into early spring, 2022.
From the article:
But data from Bespoke Investment Group suggests that history is very much on the market's side this year. In years when the market acts this well in the first six months of the year, we tend to see further gains and limited downdrafts through the balance of the year.
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In a report published Wednesday, Bespoke looked at the S&P 500's performance for each year since 1928, and pulled out the 10 years with year-to-date paths most correlated to 2021. In these similar years, the average gain for the S&P 500 through July 14 was 20.1%, with a median return of 18.8%.
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"With this year's gain of 16.2%, the magnitude of the gains so far this year is relatively close to the median of the 10 prior years," Bespoke wrote.
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Monday was a 2% "dip" in the market...of which I took advantage and added to my positions in 7 equities. Now the market has erased that and is moving on.
Question remains: is the market over-priced? The Dow is at 34,000+ unless we are to believe (think) it will go to 40,000, then 50,000, then 60,000 the market is priced too high. Take a look at some individual stocks, all dividend aristocrats/kings, all considered "forever stocks." JNJ at $170, PG at $140, as is WMT. If you were to put together a portfolio of this divie masters, blue chippers, to include those, and maybe KO, MMM, O, etc...(5 stocks)it would cost an investor right at $200,000 just to produce a portfolio returning a mere $400/month ($4,800/annual 2.4%). Of course you can mix in higher yielding stocks but those are more risky. If you created such a portfolio of "blue chippers" it would take only one crash to wreck your entire thing. Can't/won't happen? Hmmm....look at GE and worse, Sears & Roebuck and others like them, all once considered unshakable "blue chippers."
Last year, 2020, there were 10 million brand new stock market investors. Many of those focused on the popular meme stocks using online platforms like Robinhood and Webull, but there were also more serious investors, first-timers. It is encouraging to see new investors, especially young folks, since many first-timers are in their 20's. This is a good thing. But I would hate to see them get clobbered and lose all interest in remaining in the market.
If the S&P500 earns $220 next year like some are forecasting, the current price isn’t that outrageous. You are paying less than $20 for a dollar of earnings. Not phenomenal, but not crazy. Right now, it would take closer to $80 in 10 year treasuries to yield you a dollar of “earnings”. The risk premium is about right.
Lower interest rates support higher valuations, because using capital for debt rather than equity pays you ever decreasing amounts, and makes future earnings closer to par with present earnings (the discount rate).
Chasing dividend yields over the past decade or so has been a recipe for underperformance. Growth has been trumping value. There are rational explanations for why that has happened, and personally I expect that to continue over the next decade.
The reason I believe this is because like e-commerce and the Internet has been disruptive over the past couple of decades, there are other disruptive trends converging right now and these trends not only create headwinds for large incumbent companies (like the blue chip companies you mentioned) but offer new very large total addressable markets.
These companies will grow into the new Amazon, Apples and Googles. Buy them when they are young and profit.
So...what is the advantage of a reverse split? I can see, maybe, a company doing one when their PPS is mired in pennies and they hope to remain on an exchange. But, in general....?
GE just did a 1 for 8 reverse split. So now instead of holding 16,900+ shares I now own 270 shares. Price jumped from about $13/share to $104/share. I suppose the divie will go to .08/share. It should. But, financially and as for the future of the stock trading on the market, what does GE hope to accomplish by pricing out many retail investors?
Can't speak much on the actual advantage of a reverse split, but given that RH and others now offer fractional shares, it's really hard to actually price someone out anymore. Any Joe schmo with free cash in his account can trade BRK.A now.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
It was to boost the stock price to what GE viewed as in par with their peers.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
That said, it’s only the 5th since 2012 for an S&P 500 listed company.
Maybe as time goes on some new investors will think GE is on par with its peers, but right now most know it is concocted, artificial. I say that as a longtime GE stockholder and still am. But the company has been a big disappointment.Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnylightnin
I am not a certified financial advisor....which probably means I can offer better advice :D.
But, seriously, I encourage everyone to investigate, do your own DD on, monthly divie-payers. It's amazing how fast your holding grows when using DRIP on a monthly divie-payers.
Slightly unrelated (and maybe a long shot) anyone participating in DeFi, such as by staking their crypto?
7 DeFi Stocks and Investments to Watch for the Blockchain Revolution | InvestorPlaceQuote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
I hold a small position in one of the smaller, startup cryptos but it hasn't done anything...other than lose some value since I bought in. It's a Canadian-based crypto sitting on right-of-first-refusal contract opportunities should the market ever open up. It's also having some issues with the Canadian guvmint getting full approval to operate.
As a whole I don't place much of any hope in the crypto/DeFi industry. At least not for awhile. Lots of hurdles to clear, not the least of which is China's on-again/off-again attitude toward it.
This is so me!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-saving-51631308703?siteid=yhoof2
Spent my entire adult life building wealth with plans to enjoy a carefree retirement. But, I am working two part-time jobs...partially because I enjoy them. But also because I feel GUILTY if I am not working and getting "earned" income. The money is insignificant, it's more the idea of "work." My wife is guilty too. She has started a small business since retiring last year. This weekend we were at an event where she grossed about $2,500 in sales. She was so pleased with it. It was fun...I am her one unpaid employee in her business. It's entrepreneurship, that notion of building something from scratch.
We are hopeless! :laugh:
We Now Have An Inverted Yield Curve In The Market As Of Today
From Forbes:quote:
An inversion is considered an indication of risk in the bond market, and have preceded recessions in 11 out of 11 of the past recessions, with 2 ‘soft landings’ in the last 70 years.quote:
We had a prior inversion in early 2019, the Fed reacted with rate cuts, possibly averting or delaying a recession.quote:
In the past, the inversions tended to precede recessions by 12-18 months. It might be noted that in most prior inversions, we had a ‘double tap’, where the yield curve inverted two or three times before the recession.quote:
A question we should be asking ourselves is whether the inversion is caused by the risk perceived by the markets regarding coronavirus (Covid-19), the inherent risks of a pending recession, or both? Our view is that we don’t know, but it pays to err on the side of caution. When you’re coming down with something, it’s smart to take care of yourself. Prepare for a prospective downturn and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t happen.