Covid - 19 - Louisiana Edition

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guisslapp

7 day moving averages is what they normally look at due to reporting timing discrepancies.

---

Note on 4/14 and 4/15 I don't know what number was reported. on 4/16 there were 45 new cases so I spread those out over the three days. Looks like no trend. You're talking about such small numbers and no idea when the tests were done (e.g., are test reported on same day taken). Let me know if you see anything wrong with my calculations; otherwise, what else you got?

12-Apr		367		-
13-Apr		384		17
14-Apr		399		15
15-Apr		414		15
16-Apr		429		15
17-Apr		470		41
18-Apr		483		13
19-Apr		511		28	20.57143
20-Apr		518		7	19.14286
21-Apr		532		14	19
22-Apr		552		20	19.71429
23-Apr		579		27	21.42857
24-Apr		598		19	18.28571
25-Apr		609		11	18
26-Apr		622		13	15.85714
27-Apr		645		23	18.14286

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Note on 4/14 and 4/15 I don't know what number was reported. on 4/16 there were 45 new cases so I spread those out over the three days. Looks like no trend. You're talking about such small numbers and no idea when the tests were done (e.g., are test reported on same day taken). Let me know if you see anything wrong with my calculations; otherwise, what else you got?

12-Apr		367		-
13-Apr		384		17
14-Apr		399		15
15-Apr		414		15
16-Apr		429		15
17-Apr		470		41
18-Apr		483		13
19-Apr		511		28	20.57143
20-Apr		518		7	19.14286
21-Apr		532		14	19
22-Apr		552		20	19.71429
23-Apr		579		27	21.42857
24-Apr		598		19	18.28571
25-Apr		609		11	18
26-Apr		622		13	15.85714
27-Apr		645		23	18.14286

---

Doesn’t really look like a 14 day decreasing trend.

Not that Texas waited for that.

The numbers are BS. We have idiots reporting positive results on people who haven’t been tested.

We have no idea what is happening in the nursing homes but if somebody dies, guess the cause of death.

Louisiana should make Texas drivers quarantine for 14 days.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PawDawg

We have no idea what is happening in the nursing homes but if somebody dies, guess the cause of death.

---

Who is we? You?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Doesn’t really look like a 14 day decreasing trend.

Not that Texas waited for that.

---

With such small numbers you're unlikely to see a decreasing trend over 14 days until we have no cases. So basically we're saying we can't determine what kind of trend we have so therefore we're not going to reopen. Spin. Spin. Spin.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Who is we? You?

---

Do you? If not, then it would be a we. I don't so that's at least two.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

With such small numbers you're unlikely to see a decreasing trend over 14 days until we have no cases. So basically we're saying we can't determine what kind of trend we have so therefore we're not going to reopen. Spin. Spin. Spin.

---

I really think they are looking at all region 8 parishes as a unit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Do you? If not, then it would be a we. I don't so that's at least two.

---

What I know is not encouraging.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guisslapp

What I know is not encouraging.

---

I “know” as much or more than you about what’s actually happening here. We are being fed a line of BS. Weak minded people believe the BS. You believe it and you are 300 miles away in a much more densely populated region that has adapted to the BS epidemic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guisslapp

I really think they are looking at all region 8 parishes as a unit.

---

I know, but they don't show that data. Thought either you or the report stated Monroe was the problem which is not the case. I haven't been tracking daily for other parishes but Lincoln probably had an up-tick, still only 79 cases but that's probably up 20+ in the past few days. Franklin and Union have probably increased over the past few days. Don't know about Franklin but heard they moved some Covid patients into Union at one point maybe a couple of weeks ago.

I still think (but can't show since they don't list the data) that its either flat or bouncing in the numbers for the entire region. I couldn't see the Powerpoint that they were using at meeting and haven't found it on-line.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PawDawg

I “know” as much or more than you about what’s actually happening here. We are being fed a line of BS. Weak minded people believe the BS. You believe it and you are 300 miles away in a much more densely populated region that has adapted to the BS epidemic

---

You know more than me about what is going on in Monroe.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

I know, but they don't show that data. Thought either you or the report stated Monroe was the problem which is not the case. I haven't been tracking daily for other parishes but Lincoln probably had an up-tick, still only 79 cases but that's probably up 20+ in the past few days. Franklin and Union have probably increased over the past few days. Don't know about Franklin but heard they moved some Covid patients into Union at one point maybe a couple of weeks ago.

I still think (but can't show since they don't list the data) that its either flat or bouncing in the numbers for the entire region. I couldn't see the Powerpoint that they were using at meeting and haven't found it on-line.

---

Yeah, NYC is pretty much the only place that is reporting the data in a way that is actionable. They go back and correct older dates with numbers that correspond to the date.

Local health officials are probably reporting to the state in a manner that is more updated with the out of sync reported data.

This statement kills me "Hopefully, Louisiana will meet the White House criteria and move to Phase 1 on May 15, provided symptoms, new case counts and hospitalizations decrease and the state continues to surge testing and contact tracing capacity. "

So if we surge testing (I'm assuming test more people), won't you expect to find more cases, either a-sym or mild. So we have more cases therefore we're not going to open until again we can ramp up testing and see decreases in the number of cases. Seems like a vicious circle.