The 2 year v 10 year is NOT even close to be inverted. That is the signal. Not the 20 v 30 year.
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The 2 year v 10 year is NOT even close to be inverted. That is the signal. Not the 20 v 30 year.
DWAC
The Trump social media platform, Truth Social, has been merged with the SPAC DWAC. It launched about a week ago, IPO, was all over the map, but seems to have settled for now in the $60ish range. I will open a position in it this week. Starting small, maybe 200 shares; hope to get in around $55 or so. It has tons of potential, but just remember what the commie bastards did to Parler. So, this is a risky investment. If we had a real guvmint, with a real DOJ and a proper Federal Trade Commission, not corrupt to the core, then Trump's endeavor would blow Facebook & Twitter off the map. But, the corrupt powers-that-be, all in the pocket of George Soros et al, will never allow that to happen.
Still, the market is a powerful force, one that, like water, seeks its own level. I think given time, market forces will eventually defeat the evil bastards who will artificially try to derail this endeavor. I believe in America and true Americans and so businesses will, in time, thrive, or not. based on their own merits. These azzholes will be kicked to the curb...we are starting to see it already. Once free to roam Truth Social, and its parent DWAC, will do very well. It will have 30 million paid subscribers and the freebies will generate tens of millions of hits monthly...advertisers will be lining up.
Put DWAC on your stock watch list, follow the news, and pull the trigger and get in when you think the time is right.
Do your own DD!
Gotta love the stock market! Better to love it and roll with the valleys (that come in-between the peaks), adding to positions on dips. It's too easy, and disingenuous, to blame Sleepy Joe for the drop in the market. It marches to its own beat and doesn't give a flip who happens to be POTUS. Now, individual industries and certain companies are impacted by the WH and Congress depending on policies, but the overall market abhors a vacuum and some other parts of it benefit when a sector gets hit.
Sold all my GE when it spiked a couple of weeks ago and got out in the green. Held GE for almost 40 years.
BTW, referencing the above post and DWAC, I have not opened a position, and glad I didn't at $55.
But....Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
It seems to not care about how well oiled the economy is, either. It just goes up and down regardless of fundamentals and earning multiples, and the same information today that creates the market boom will cause it to plummet tomorrow.
Keep those stop sells for when all the lemmings head for the exits. Bull and bear markets are driven by herd mentality.
True, and the panic selling, and buying (FOMO) can drive a stock up or down beyond its true valuation and then that spurs holders of other stocks, sometimes totally unrelated, to panic sell (or buy). That's also part of the dynamics of the stock market. Like water (a flood), the market seeks its own level.Quote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
It’s really notQuote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
Heres what you could likely expect (tax free upon withdrawal) using real stock market performance history just opening a Roth and putting in the minimum each year buying average performing dividend stocks.
$110,000+ @10yrs
$450,000+ @20
$1,500,000+ @30
$4,700,000+ @40
Not even joking.
yes, yes, yes. Please don’t waste any more time. If you don’t have a roth ira get it set up tomorrow!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
If you don’t think you know what stocks to buy in your Roth consider asking someone you trust.
Where does one find a 4% CD referenced above?
My bank(s) don't offer anywhere close to that.
Ha! If you can find it, grab it!Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
I wish! Gotta go to a ten year to get 1 1/2 percent these days. With inflation what it is, you'd be losing big time on that transaction.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
True. Roth IRAs are a great way to save for retirement.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipDog
Of course, if you are within 5 years or so of retirement, or already retired, leaving your entire fortune in the market is not something I would personally do.
It took 25 years for the stock market to recover after the 1929 depression. If you were still investing new money during that period you came out OK a lot sooner than 25 years....if you were fully invested with no new money to invest during that time you spent your fortune quickly and died broke.
As it is today, I keep a set percentage of my savings in the market because there is really no better place to go with it. Give me a sure thing and I stop gambling entirely.
I have kind of stumbled and bumbled my way the past 40+ years, when I starting getting serious about investing and accumulating a nice nest egg. I would like to boast that after making a mistake I learned from it and never did it again...alas, I have repeated mistakes a few times thinking "this time it will be different!" Wrong! None of them were portfolio-shattering, always a small $amount, but still dumb.
Diversity...that's been my investing mantra since day one. I have two online investing platforms, TD Ameritrade and E Trade, and a couple of direct DRIPs, and two years ago ended my "full service" broker account because their commission was ridiculous. They still hold two large annuities for me. I am diversified within the trading platforms. I hold 35 equities, 30 of which are good divie-payers, and that split between Blue Chippers, REITS, and a couple of risky, high-payers. And just took a pounding on 8 penny stocks I have dumped to offset, well, make a small dent in my AMC tax burden!
I have also been heavily invested in real estate, which I am now actively divesting. Real estate has been very, very good to me! :)
I also have some ultra-safe cash positions. Yeah, as we all know inflation takes a bite out of low-interest-paying "safe" harbors, but I have to be able to sleep at night. I don't recommend this for everyone, or for anyone, but it works for me.
How much is enough? Of course that depends on your lifestyle, but for us (my wife and I), we are set for the rest of our lives and that does include traveling to Europe, etc...(when this virus mess is over). My wife and I share, and have shared from the day we started getting serious when dating, a desire to retire as multi-millionaires. I don't lean on the BS some folks say, "we have been fortunate...blah, blah, blah". Bullshit! it has been a struggle at times, making sacrifices as we always kept our eye on the ultimate target: retiring as millionaires. We run our personal household/finances as a business. I think ALL entities, including universities, should be run as a business.
Now, I also am working two part-time "jobs" one in politics (government), and another as a tour guide because I love history. I also just prefer having some form of earned income. I have been working for a paycheck since I was 16 (legally) and before that in odd jobs since I was 11. But then, I am a Boomer, and WORK ETHIC is what we do!
All that said, I also know I don't know everything and am always open to recommendations, hot stock tips! and any hints that will increase my bottom line.
Good luck to all!
401(K)s...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-o...221928924.html
Still not a "retirement plan"? Who said it was supposed to be? Like Social Security your 401(K), or some such savings vehicle, is a PART of an overall retirement PLAN, not meant to be the end all.
I have kicked around the notion of starting a "financial literacy" consulting/educational firm. Many universities have started, or are starting, some type of program/course to teach folks about personal, pragmatic finance. Lord knows the worst thing you can do is depend on one of those so-called "financial planners," LOL! No, one has to be educated to know how to navigate planning for yourself/family.
Looks like they want someone else to control YOUR retirement savings now (it's in build back better, which should NEVER pass). Wonder if the insurance companies and their lobbyists had anything to do with pushing crap like that? Wonder what the kickbacks will be to the corporations that sign exclusive deals with these insurance companies to annuitize their employees' balances? Wonder how much dim candidates are getting from these same insurance companies?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
"He says SECURE 2.0, if it eventually passes, would go even further in allowing employers to “annuitize” a 401(k) plan instead of leaving retirees to manage a set final balance."
Looks like reality has caught up with the market. Biden has shit his pants with all the talk of spending trillions of future Americans' money.
The Fed will hike interest rates three times next year, most likely. That will have a strong negative effect on the stock market overall. But, there are still lots of opportunities, like those REITs who use interest rate margins to their benefit. Some of those are dirt cheap right now, while still paying a nice dividend. I am backing up the truck and loading up!
Mark this date and time...
Wednesday January 12, 2022 at precisely 8:31 EST.
A self-proclaimed market expert, James Rickards, is saying the market will crash up to 80% on that day. But, if you subscribe to his investment advice service, for $49, he will provide a road map of how to not only avoid losing 80% of your money, but how you can profit 1,000% from the pending crash. Well worth a mere $49, eh.
I think the market is in a bubble and due a correction. Of course, we are subject to such "corrections" and/or "crashes" at any time due to some unforeseen event, such as a world crisis. The 2000 Dotcom mess, the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis, and the 2020 China virus mess all crashed the market. But, we got over each one. Like 1929 there is a LOT of borrowed money sitting in stock portfolios. Just saw a report stating it is at all-time high in raw dollars and second only to the '29 bubble in terms of percentages. There is also a lot of rank amateurs invested in the market, many who chased the meme stocks using all that "free" money they got from the guvmint during the pandemic lockdown. Through on-line platforms like Robinhood, many of those newbies are also invested in "good" stocks/companies and have helped to inflate the bubble. They will lead the panic on the first little correction, turning what should be a minor 5% step back into something far worse.
Need to be accumulating cash getting ready to buy when the big correction comes. I am not a financial advisor, but I am a student of history. "Those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it." I cited three major corrections that we all remember from just the past 20 years. Don't ignore it.
GLTA
...that means Good Luck To All
This comment aged about as well as its author.Quote:
Originally Posted by DONW
Exactly. Crashes usually happen because of the unforeseen. A tighter Fed is foreseen. The Fed’s pivot has already taken some of the air out of meme stocks and hyper growth stocks that benefit the most from low interest rates. The three hikes projected for next year, though, still keep interest rates on the secular low trend. The market has actually gotten cheaper as the indexes have gone up this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
With all that said, 2020-2021 were easy to make lots of money. It does get harder from here. Know what you own and make sure you understand why you own it and what can change the story.
Interesting read...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...WGw7rKVHB9dqa0
That guy was exactly right. That was a great read; thanks for posting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Yahoo Finance had an article this morning on predictions for the market/economy for 2022. What struck me was how casual and matter-of-fact the writer is stating there will likely be a 20% correction in the stock market. Wow! First, is 20% really just a "correction" and not a "crash"? Even so, 20% represents a serious hit to the market. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I would think that there would be alarm bells ringing and that would be reflected in the tone of the article, rather than, yes, a 20% correction is very likely [shrugs shoulders], oh well, what else will be happening...oh wait, just read it again, it reads "at least one 20% correction." You mean this market/finance/economic writer thinks there could be two or more 20% corrections and he's like, Oh well, who cares?
Has other predictions like the housing market will stay hot (despite 3 rate increases), cryptos will be a big story in '22.... and then concludes by saying, Duh! file this article under the Captain Obvious column. Duh? TWO or more 20% "corrections" in the market and we are to simply file it under Captain Obvious?
I think such "corrections" will wreak some havoc in the economy.
One of the longtime edicts from those offering investing advice is to hold some good, old, solid, boring, dividend kings and aristocrats. That is still sound advice but comes with a caveat. Pay attention to the status of the companies you hold stock in. Nothing is forever.
For the first time in 90 years GM is NOT the biggest automaker in the US...Toyota outsold GM in 2021. Funny thing GM stock has jumped up 5% on that news, go figure. Point is, nothing lasts forever. Now, I don't think this means GM is in any danger of tanking as a company, but it does show how things will change.
Think about these: Sears-Roebuck, J. C. Penny's, General Electric, AMACO, Bethlehem Steel, Lehman Brothers, F.W. Woolworth, Pan-Am Airlines, and others... all considered, at one time, to be a must in your stock portfolio. Couple of them, GE, are trying to hang on but it is not a good stock play right now.
AT&T is carrying baggage and many analysts have it as a cautious HOLD. It is considered one of the darlings of long-term investing. My cost basis is so low on it that I am holding it but monitoring news about it closely. Technology is changing fast and everyone, including the old guard companies, like AT&T, have to keep up or they will go the way of the Dodo Bird!
Read another article where the writer says the 10 biggest companies in the world, in the 2030's and 2040's don't even exist yet. In fact, half will be in industries that don't exist yet, and he offers a few predictions. Of course, technology is at the root of all these economic/investing revolutions to come.
In case I haven't mentioned it, put UBX on your watchlist. Do your DD, of course, It's a penny stock so investing in it comes with no risk, really, buy a couple hundred shares. Not enough money to matter if it doesn't work out. But, I have read some stuff about it. Interesting...
FWIW
Clarification: buying penny stocks is all about RISK! The reason those stocks are trading for so little is because the market, in general, has little confidence those companies will be successful. But, what I meant was because the PPS is so low buying 100+ shares amounts to very little money and losing it all shouldn't hurt.*
Invest only money you can afford to lose. And, as always, do your DD.
*Use stop losses and you won't lose it all.
Market getting pounded. It's Biden's fault!!!
Actually, some of it is his stupid, anti-American policies, and some of it is his inability to react to all the signs that were flashing a warning this was coming. But, overall, the market does what the market does, rather independent of any particular outside force(s). There are some SCREAMING BUYS! and yet even those stocks are being hammered in the general sell-off.
UBX is down to 1.10/share. This is still one to watch, monitor for news about it.
AMC is falling fast, down to 16.00 from its all-time high of 72.00 barely 6 months ago. Knew this one was going to be a quick peak & valley and tried my best to get folks to sell it last year when it was still above $50.00. I got accused of being a basher/shorty and took a lot of grief on the Yahoo message board. Oh well...
Rough morning! Good thing I have a long term view of all of this, otherwise I could be in a state of panic. Actually, I am drooling over some really good buying opportunities and watching them closely.
GLTA!
One word...stagflation.
This likely is a market that will keep going down until it plateaus. But don't look for much of a quick bounceback because the fundamentals in the economy just aren't there right now.
Part of the definition of stagflation is high unemployment, and that usually means there are too few jobs available for the workforce seeking jobs. That is not the case right now, there are plenty of jobs, just too few people with a work ethic. Now, this might manifest the same as a traditional low employment economy, but in this case it is self-inflicted.
Yes, inflation is high, and if the general populace lacks sufficient means to consume then the economy will be stagnant. There is also the supply chain issue, which means a lower volume of goods/products are reaching the retail market, thus demand > supply yielding higher prices. But why is there a supply chain issue? We didn't have such a problem last year or the years before. At least not at this level. It stems from the lack of workers in the supply chain (and elsewhere) because of liberal policies re: free money to stay home which all is rooted in the extreme over-reaction to the China virus (hoax? exaggeration? call it what you will...) and that was rooted in an attempt to crush the economy during 2020 to hurt Trump's reelection bid.
But now, the generated problems becoming real, we have a doofus and clueless morons who are making it worse with anti-American policies. In other words, the Dems (libs) unleashed an economy-killing monster designed to hurt Trump, but the monster has grown beyond their pathetic ability to rein it in. Reminds me of the Sherlock Holmes story, "Hound of the Baskervilles," the idiots who created/released the killer hound lost control of it and it turned on them.
As for the market, yes there is a measure of over-reaction but a lot of that is triggered by the computer-driven automatic market-makers, and those with a handle on it, get swept along. In fact, watched a segment this morning (about 4am our time) on Bloomberg when the far east markets were opening, and a trader said his firm had already began selling in anticipation of the mechanical sell-off to come. They didn't want to sell but knew what was going to happen...and it did today.
It is really simple. When the fed injects liquidity into the system and then takes interest rates down P/Es go up. And then when the fed withdraws liquidity and increases rates, P/Es go down. Like clockwork.
That is why they say don’t fight the fed.
That's exactly what I thought, but now that I find myself agreeing with you I must re-evaluate my thoughts. I must have missed something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
You did miss the part about how injecting too much liquidity into the system also eventually causes inflation (of which inflated asset prices are just one component), which can only be addressed by raising rates aggressively. I will assume you disagree and I can feel comfortable with that bit of analysis.
Biden's been a total failure and idiot, but I don't blame him (alone) for the inflation. Thank heaven the BBB stupidity didn't pass.
Guess you can be right about something.Quote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
Too much liquidity does cause inflation, as does other things (like global supply chains being compromised) - but knowing how much liquidity is “too much” in an environment like we just went through is hard to know.
Some real data. US Purchasing Manufacturers Index.
United States Manufacturing PMI | 2022 Data | 2023 Forecast | 2012-2021 Historical (tradingeconomics.com)
Exact numbers are hard to know, but in a general, macro view it was blatantly obvious! Many folks were advocating to stop the enhanced unemployment benefits, and that the last and second-to-last stimulus (Virus stay-home checks), should not be issued. Biden et al don't care about what is actually good for the country as they are trying (and mostly failing) to reinvent this nation. From the time of obummer's stimulus checks, the printing of new money, we have had one foot dangling over the inflation cliff, and the other slipping... I am surprised it took this long for inflation to appear. Some of that is thanks to Trump who created tons of new jobs and grew the economy, but now the blithering idiot Sleepy Joe has no answers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
The true reasons for the current economic mess has been well-documented as the talking heads on many, many networks have been outlining.
And there are lots of other things that cause the stock market to drop as well, and many of those are directly related to your hero (like paying folks not to work and removing people from the workforce because they do not comply with an unconstitutional/dictatorial vaccine mandate). But I thought we were talking specifically about Fed policy as a factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
my god, this country misses trump!!Quote:
Originally Posted by friscodawg
Nominal GDP can’t run at 10% forever. That isn’t sustainable. Reversion to the mean is inevitable.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Thought this is interesting...
for the calendar year 2021 billionaires like Musk, Bezos, and Suckerberg lost many $billions, but good, old Warren Buffett had a net gain to his net worth of $1.3 billion.
Musk's net worth went from $275 billion down to $245 billion...net loss of $30 billion. Not that he's hurting financially :rolleyes:. Bezos and Suckerberg lost around $20 billion or so. Doesn't mean a whole lot, just found it interesting.
BTW, old man Warren Buffett is down to being the 11th richest man in the world. But slow and steady has always been his mantra, not being a flash in the pan. We can all learn a lesson from Buffett, slow and steady works. And for most of us, time is our only real ally...unless you invent something or stumble into some new hot trend. Good luck with that! You younger folks out there, if you are not invested in the stock market, in some capacity, do yourself a favor and get in. There are good "safe" options and alternatives, and they will grow and give you a good return, in time.
When I look at my investments the only regrets I have is I didn't invest more.
US Trade Deficit surges to record breaking high in 2021; breaking $1 trillion
December 2021 was the first month where the trade deficit broke $100 billion; a record high. The deficit appears to be growing month to month.
quote:
US Trade Deficit in Goods Surges to Record High, Breaks $1 Trillion
LINK
The U.S. trade deficit in goods rose in December on the back of an import surge to hit a monthly record high, while bringing the total shortfall for all of 2021 to over $1 trillion, also a historic first.quote:Let's go Brandon!!!
Since trade deficits subtract from economic output in GDP calculations, the Commerce Department’s figures suggest a softer print may be in store for U.S. economic growth numbers for the fourth quarter when those are released later on Thursday.
Posts about the goofy Biden effing things up belong on other threads. Want to keep this thread "clean" and that means no mentions of Biden et al. :shocked2:
But, yes there is a connection to the stock market and thus investing. Under Trump the US was a net exporter in energy and our trade deficit/surplus situation was pretty dern good. Amazing how fast Brandon has destroyed this country.
Interesting that it took Musk less than 1/3 the time to amass 3 times the wealth as Warren Buffet.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Funny how you misinterpret what this means. This means the American consumer is stronger than the consumer outside of America.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
Musk, and others like him, are fascinating to read about, their history, how they accumulated wealth, etc...Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
But, how many Musks are there and how much room is there in that exclusive club? Not much! Now, how many people can be like Warren Buffet? Well, just about anyone could. That is Buffet's story and why he should be the model held up for others to follow. If I were addressing a room full of young folks, late teens/early 20's, who want to know how to get rich! I wouldn't use Musk, Bezos, or Suckerberg as my prime examples (I might mention them...). I would use someone like Warren Buffett as my example of what any one of them can accomplish.
That is my point, and don't need your typical smartass comments, Goosey, oh boy! Musk smoked Buffett, ladda dah!
Musk has done much more to transform the world than Buffet. I would focus on that accomplishment more than his wealth. Once you can take care of your needs, money doesn’t mean so much.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Binged "What has Elon Musk accomplished." It came back adding "really" in front of accomplished. The article, it said, is designed to be generous and not nit-pick too much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
1. Tesla
2. gigafactories
3. Spacex
4. The Boring Company
5. The Musk Foundation
None of his so-called accomplishments have changed a damn thing, except his own personal wealth. Which is fine, but don't give him credit "to transform the world." He has unrealized dreams and ideas, that's it.
I don't think Warren Buffet has transformed the world either, but I never said he has. This thread is focused on investing and improving personal wealth. And that is my point about holding up Buffet as a model, an example, of why anyone can become wealthy. Buffet has demonstrated the model of success. He set out to become individually wealthy and do it slowly, conservatively over time. You don't have to agree with him or think he merits any kind of accolades. But he set a goal and it is MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! Musk has goals.... some of them worthy and great...but he has not accomplished anything yet. But he is rich! Well done indeed.
In summary, I think more people will find success imitating Buffet than ever will trying to be the next Elon Musk. You disagree?
You forgot Neuralink, and you have lost your mind if you think Tesla and Space X have not transformed the auto and space industries.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
There are few that will do as much as Musk, but there are plenty of disruptive, transformative companies today still being led by their now-wealthy founders. They just don’t have the market cap of Tesla or Berkshire (today). Forrest Li is another that could catch up soon.
One more thing, I should have mentioned this before...
Warren Buffet preaches about the importance of a great management team in charge of companies. In countless interviews, many of which I have seen, and articles I have read Buffet emphasizes great management. He won't invest in, buy shares in, a company that he thinks has a weak management team. The company might have a great product or service and that is what attracted him to investigate them in the first place, but he won't invest unless he likes management. In this way Buffet has influenced American business in general. I don't know how much practical influence he has had, say in a company changing management after Buffet rejected them...although I suspect some changes were made. But he is so well respected across the business world that when he speaks, people do listen.
Others, from the world of quality (Six Sigma), have wielded influence, some directly. But I wouldn't simply dismiss the consequences of Berkshire Hathaway passing on a company's stock. I guarantee that is a wake-up call for those involved and many investors, including large Hedge funds, notice too.
Tesla and Space X have not transformed either industry. Especially not Space X. Just a big boy toy to be. As for Tesla, EVs will be around, in some minor capacity, but that whole "movement" will soon get gobbled up by the realities of the market. Twenty years from now we will look back and ask, "hey remember when those stupid car companies actually thought they could replace the internal combustion engine...LOL"Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Physics, real science...here ya go, pound for pound there is more energy in a gallon of 2,2,4-trimethal pentane than any other form of energy THAT can be employed in vehicles. Not talking about plutonium.
BUT! even if, for the sake of argument, I agreed, yeah, baby! Musk is another Albert Einstein/Andrew Carnegie/John D. Rockefeller/Steve Jobs all rolled into one, I still maintain more people will realize success following the Buffet model than trying to invent themselves as the next Elon Musk. You never answered before, so I ask again...you agree or disagree?
Oh, I didn't comment...I didn't miss Neuralink, that article left it out as a notable Musk accomplishment. I was just quoting their top 5 for him.
And after reading more about it, I can see why it didn't make their top 5. That is just plain stupid! Maybe folks like you, robots who march in lockstep as the sheeple you are waiting for George Soros' next command, will embrace that nonsense, but 99% of people will not just say no, but HELL NO! Just another stupid idea that will never find a market.
But, hey, if you like it, mortgage your house and buy tons of shares in Neuralink.
You sound like a relic.
Cars don’t need fuels with that kind of energy density. Tesla makes 3 times the margin as the rest of the auto industry and they can scale their gigafactories much more efficiently. Henry Ford on steroids.
SpaceX’s reusable rockets reduce the cost of space travel by a factor of 100.
AFAIK, batteries only store energy they get from elsewhere. They are consumers of energy, not sources.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Mining for the components of these batteries is probably more destructive environmentally than drilling for oil and gas, and it makes us hyper-dependent on foreign supplies (what could go wrong?????).
Even those gigafactories have not yet produced a vehicle that is affordable for the majority of the developed world, much less the underdeveloped world. Henry Ford made his fortune creating cars in efficient factories for folks that could not otherwise afford them...that is not a Tesla strength.
Do you own a Tesla?
No doubt Musk is a visionary, but visionaries are rarely practical. Buffet is just a regular guy that that made his fortune investing in stable companies with good management (today he just makes money because he has a lot of it and gets deals that nobody else gets). Very few people can be like Musk, but almost anyone can be like Buffet. I believe that is what the question was.
"Canadian truckers rule!" - Elon Musk
Kudos to Musk for supporting the anti-mandate truckers in Canada.
And as Mr. Window said, I have no issues with Musk as a visionary, being an entrepreneur, trying to make things (products and systems) and I salute his accumulation of wealth. He is a capitalist, I am a capitalist, go for it! But right now he is living off of speculative investment, people buying stock in his companies. Now, it is true for the first time Tesla is in the green for the past trailing 12 months, net income of $3.2 billion, this after losing $60 billion from 2018-2020 and practically breaking even for tax year 2021. SpaceX is closely held (not on stock exchange) and raises its money via venture capitalists. Last report shows it has received $338 million from investors.
I don't begrudge Elon Musk making money, getting rich, and if his efforts lead to good, practical products for the consuming public then great! But, as Mr. Window correctly picked up on, that is not the question. And he is right.
Carry on all you daring souls investing in the volatile, often nutso, stock market and GLTA.
Tesla could make a car with fewer frills more cheaply, but why would they when they can get better margins with what they are building today? The model T didn’t have have and elaborate infotainment system filled with semiconductors, and wasn’t remotely capable of self driving.Quote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
100% torque at every RPM is a tough to beat performance feature of EVs.
People want EVs now. They are now in many respects better than their ICE counterparts. They will continue to gain market share going forward for that reason. As battery costs continue to drop and battery performance/charging options continue to improve, they will have fewer drawbacks.
$10k invested in Tesla 10 years ago would be 2.1 million now. You won’t get that kind of return investing where there aren’t plenty of doubters. And the practical don’t radically change the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Wow! congrats Goosey on your investing $10K in Tesla ten years ago. Good for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Yep, "if only" eh. You can go back and pick some point in history and say, if you had invested $10K in such and such company it would be worth $X millions. That is true for most, just about all, of the companies Buffet invested in decades ago. Which is the point. Time is your best ally. Not everyone is SMART enough to buy AMC when I recommended it about this time last year, and then sell the whole wad 90 days later for a HUGE return. In my case I cleared $47/share on 3,300 shares. Should have bought more!
Overall, companies like Tesla come along and are always one beast in a herd of similar firms, trying to do the same thing, or something like it, and 10 years later some genius points to the winner and says, Hah! if you had only bought that one! And why does the world need to be radically changed? If anything, I think the world needs to hold on to some of the things that got us here in the first place.
For full disclosure, I do buy shares in start-ups, some penny stocks, and hope I have picked the right one out of the herd. Haven't had too much luck doing that, with a few exceptions, and never invest that much. Heck, I dumped 9 such stocks in December, for tax purposes, with a combined total loss of about $1,500. My CPA advises me to dump losers to help to offset the capital gains of my winners. Besides, they were losers and I have invested that money elsewhere. But, buying a 1,000 shares or so in some penny stock is exciting. It feeds that "get rich quick" thingy most of us have, and it's like gambling. You know...roll the dice! Not something Warren Buffet does, but then he's a $billionaire and I ain't.
As for investing in the stock market.... come on in, the water is fine.
Some comments from Buffet's long time business partner Charlie Munger...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgpkxASHAhY
Comments from Peter Lynch, the founder/manager of the awesome Fidelity Magellan Fund. I was smart to invest in, and then dumb when I sold it all. Yeah, I made a bunch of money on it, but should have held it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQfe02XD2MQ
Well...
Now that AT&T (T) is no longer the divie darling it's been for decades (called the stock for widows and orphans since it was so dependable), many analysts are piling on. There's a mob mentality that causes some people to join in the "kick 'em when they are down" syndrome.
Last fall I sold (dumped) GE when it spiked to $115/share and I got out with a small profit. Had held GE for 25 years. Now T is going through something similar. The biggest issue for many investors is the "slashing" of the dividend from .52/qtr to .26/qtr. That's a drop from around 8.3% (at today's PPS) to about 4.15%. And current T shareholders will receive 1 share of the new company, Discovery, for every 4 shares of T held. Nothing is "forever." An article I read recently cited a Forbes article from the 1980's recommending "Five stocks to hold forever." It included GE, T and F. All still exist but not exactly setting the investing world on fire. (WMT and ED were the other two).
AT&T should emerge a more solid company, even though they have divested their single-biggest gross revenue maker, they have also restructured their long-term debt. Point is, don't be married to a stock. I will ride the T horse through most of 2022 and see what happens, but I will dump it all if I don't like what I see. T is another stock I have held since the early 1990's. My cost average is low so I can afford to take a hit in the PPS and still come out to the good. Meantime, at 4.15% return T is still in the Top 5 of divie-payers in the S&P 500. The new king at 4.91% is IBM. Oh oh! Big Blue is on the clock as the next iconic company (stock) to hit the skids. I don't own any IBM...which means it is probably safe.
As always do your own DD before you invest and GLTA.
Any comments on Google (Alphabet) announcing a 20-1 stock split to attract more retail investors? I think it is a very good idea. Yeah, I know, it doesn't add value to the company (the stock) in the short term, just the same market cap divided by 20X more shares. But in the long run if retail investors are actively involved it puts more upward pressure on the PPS, adding value.
I have never understood all these stock market investing gurus throwing out stocks like JNJ, LMT, APL, and so many more with PPS of $160+ as if the average retail investors have $16,000 to buy 100 shares and then capturing a quarterly divie of $100 will really make a lot of difference. If someone has $16,000 to plop down on one stock, chances are they are already a successful investor with a large portfolio and don't need any advice/guidance. Of course, even at 20-1 Google will be $150/share. Helps...some, I guess. There are those advice-givers who will present a BLUE CHIP Divie Payer roster where one can generate $1,000+ per month in income...and then add sheepishly, "of course you will need at least $250K invested." :rolleyes:
The real trick, if you think you are a stock market genius, is to find those equities in the below $20-30 range, low to mid caps just starting to gather support with upside growth potential. Show me a portfolio that generates $1,000+ monthly in income, has growth potential, and which the whole thing cost about $30K to buy. That's something I will pay $49 for an annual subscription to!
Happy investing!
I don't really see the need for companies to do stock splits in order to generate more buying from average Joe retail investors anymore, given that most major brokerages offer fractional shares. If you've only got $1,000 to invest, you can still buy into Amazon or Google. The only thing it helps the average retail investor do is generate more dividend income, but as you alluded to, it takes a heck of a lot of shares to generate anything meaningful and that kind of dividend income is reserved for people that already have fat accounts.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Been reading a lot lately about the options market. Did some paper trading and decided to dip my real money toes into it last week. Only put about $200 in, but the thrill of it was more than worth it even if I had lost it all. Managed to make about $25 on some Uber calls so even better!
Alphabet is an awesome collection of businesses led by a great management team. Unlike AT&T, they do very good in the M&A space generating lots of value for its shareholders.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Full disclosure, GOOGL is my third largest position behind NVDA and a certain energy stock.
The stock split makes Alphabet a possible inclusion into the Dow index, which I don’t understand why people care about. For me, the split makes it easier to sell covered calls on GOOGL, which I don’t plan on doing.
I don’t trade these core positions, and only consider adding when there are major selloffs. Would only sell if something major changes with the businesses.
Still expecting another leg down in the indexes (lower than last weeks low) as the market digests the tighter liquidity conditions. Fun buying opportunities in companies with ridiculous CAGRs, now buyable at multiples lower than per-pandemic (in many cases).
When I was with my old brick & mortar traditional broker, A.G Edwards, which got bought out by Wells Fargo, I think, there was a new broker/agent/advisor, whatever the title was, who was big into options and wanted all of their clients to try it. She convinced me to try a little, it was around $200 as I recall, and I ended losing a good portion of it. That cured me of options trading. I have read about it, have watched videos on it, and have considered trying again, but "puts" and "pulls", no that ain't right, "calls" I think it is, is all a bit confusing to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dowty
Tim Sykes is a day trading guru and I did investigate his services....until I saw the $6,000 price tag plus additional annual fees. Ah, no thanks. I still get emails from his company trying to entice me back, and they do provide some information and hints of hot tips too! But none of them have been particularly interesting to me.
And as Goosey says, there is more down slide to come to the market. At least I think so, as do so-called pundits and experts. Yet! if you watch CNBC with their parade of guests, and of course good ole Jim Cramer, it's still Buy! Buy! Buy! And admittedly, I have been nibbling on dips adding small amounts to my long-term holdings. Mostly I am keeping my powder dry. Sitting on a ton of cash...way too much cash, most of it wasting away in money markets paying next to nothing interest %. And that is getting worse as I am divesting property, real estate, and accumulating even more cash, in droves! Instead of nibbling, might need to start gulping some.
And what "certain energy stock" Goosey? You didn't provide a name.
I've looked at Sykes a little, and he has generated a lot of success, but his services are too rich for my blood. I've been following a service lately called Unusual Whales, which tracks options flow and provides a ton of useful data and alerts. They also provide some of it for free via Twitter. They have some paid services that aren't very expensive relatively speaking, but I'm trying to learn more on my own before throwing money at someone.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
So, the unexpectedly good January job numbers is a concern for the market and will dull futures. The market makes for strange bedfellows.
One would think that good employment numbers would point to a robust economy and the stock market will respond in a positive way. And certain sectors, like retail, should realize a boost, and maybe the auto industry, and I guess travel/hospitality too. BUT! the beast in the room is inflation and the solution for that is The Fed, egad! Now some pundits are saying SIX rate hikes in 2022. Come on, man! And that scares the market.
It's a see-saw, when one side goes up, the other side has to go down.
Article on Energy & Capital, a daily online investing service, calls Musk's Tesla a Ponzi scheme. Whoa! The writer is a Jason Williams. He makes a few valid points, but I think calling it a Ponzi scheme is a stretch. Tesla is like a lot of other companies trying to change a sector of the economy, in this case, a major sector: automotive/transportation, they have to live on investment dollars as they go through R&D, marketing, hoping to eventually capture a big enough slice of the market that they can generate real free cash flow. Doubtful Tesla will ever reach that level. Although, I have to mention, they did generate some cash flow in the most recent TTM. Isn't a lot and the company is sitting on mega-tons of long-term debt, but it is a small flicker of light in an otherwise deep black hole.
I like Elon Musk and enjoy reading about his exploits. But truthfully, he is living off of investors' dollars and probably that is all he'll ever do. His best bet will be to create demand for EVs that is truly mainstream and then either sell out to a real car company or merge with them in some capacity. This would actually be keeping with historic precedent since often inventors/innovators lack the capacity to actually manage a company to deliver products to the market. The creative types get bored with the day-to-day grind of building/managing a business.
But, a Ponzi scheme? Nah!
Lol. They have less than 1/10 the debt of Ford. And 3 times the margin on each vehicle. Plus a services revenue stream they can turn on at some point that will have margins at least 3 times what their margin is on product.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
They are also able to start up new factories way faster than the incumbents, which is helping them scale.
They have a big head start on technology for the segment of the market that is growing the fastest.
Which is why Musk is dumping all…a lot…of his Tesla stock. Makes sense since he believes in the future of his company. Insider trading speaks volumes about the real status of a company. When those in the know dump shares it means they have confidence in its future.
Oh wait…that can’t be right ��
Where else was he going to get the 10B he needed to pay his tax bill?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
And as goofy as that Cybertruck is, they have 1.25 million preorders for it. Ford only has 200k pre-orders for the Lightning so far. Crazy.
Your entire argument is rooted in Tesla vs. Ford. Ford has struggled big time for years. Their stock was trading for $4 not too long ago and has pulled back to $17 after a recent high of $26. So, that's it, Tesla is great because they are out-performing Ford? That's like saying some college football team is great because they are better than ULM...wow! high hurdle to get over, eh!Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
But, looking at the financials, lowly Ford had $135 billion in revenue vs. $48 billion for Tesla, and Ford's TTM EBIT is $10.3 billion vs. Tesla's $4.8 billion. So, gawd-awful, lousy, horrible last place Ford is still besting Tesla. Wonder how Tesla compares to GM, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, oh! and Mercedes, BMW, etc....
Nah, let's just focus on Tesla vs. Ford, LOL!
Obviously, Goosey, you are invested in Tesla stock and in the whole Tesla revolution. That's fine. Frankly, I don't care, and have no problem whatsoever with Tesla (Elon Musk) being successful. I like Musk. Have no issues with him, his companies, his vision, any of it. I don't hold any stock in his firms and probably never will. But then there are literally hundreds and hundreds of stocks I don't own.
Now, just watched a piece on Youtube of some investing firm gurus, one called Loup, and they are all singing the praises of Tesla as a company and as a stock. They LOVE Tesla stock! Okay, fine.
BUT! this whole Tesla/Elon Musk discussion is nothing but a tangent. The original point was, and still is, Warren Buffet's approach to investing makes the most sense and is something anyone can follow. Buffet, and his followers, may not "change the world" but they will get rich and enjoy the fruits of sensible investing.
Carry on Goosey and happy investing!
Oh come on!Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Tesla introduced their truck in 2019 and STILL has not started production on it.
Ford introduced their truck in May of last year and have STOPPED taking pre-orders. They are planning to start production this year.
Crazy.
I am surprised Goosey likes Elon Musk. Musk is a sensible, anti-commie type.
From an article:
The founder, CEO, and chief engineer at SpaceX, Elon Musk, recently tweeted a rather pertinent message to his 62 million followers: “If you scare people enough, they will demand removal of freedom. This is the path to tyranny.”
He’s right. It is. Joseph Stalin knew this better than most. One day, in front of his closest advisers, Stalin supposedly picked up a live rooster, plucked it, and placed it back down on the ground. The featherless bird, terrified and covered in blood, ran away. However, in this particular room, the door was closed. The rooster couldn’t escape. Left with no option, it returned to Stalin. Freezing cold, it rubbed itself between the dictator’s legs for warmth. Stalin looked at his advisers, smiled, and said: “Now, you see, people are like chickens. Pluck them, and then let them go.” Soon enough they’ll come back; after that, you “control them.”
So Ford has twice the earnings as Tesla after a 100 year head start. Tesla makes 3 times as much as Ford on every vehicle sold, and is growing faster than Ford, so it won’t be long (a couple years) before Tesla is ahead of Ford in raw earnings as well. Profitability and growth is where Tesla is winning. The argument against Tesla stock is the valuation—Not their debt, not their earnings.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
But we could also compare Tesla to one of your other investments - T. Similar earnings (trailing), both made about 5 billion. Massive difference in debt. Massive difference in growth.
So what is your real beef with Tesla?
Who are you arguing with? Nobody has said anything about having a beef with Tesla.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
I can see why you think Biden is a great president, now. You're arguing issues nobody else is arguing with a strawman of your own invention.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
Yeppers! I have no beef with Tesla or Elon Musk.Quote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
As for T I have held it for so long my cost average is very low and I am holding to see what comes from the creation of the new Discovery, Inc. T will still pay a nice $4.15% dividend and many pundits think its stock price will recover to about $30 PPS. I hold 640 shares of T, that's it. I began it as one of 12 "Blue Chip" stocks decades ago and have added very little to it. I have used DRIP to grow my holding, only buying some now and then on dips. I am not particularly happy with T as an investment, but it represents such a tiny % of my portfolio and I am up significantly, so I choose to ride it a little longer.
BTW, Goosey, you mentioned you hold a "certain energy company" but never said which one. I hold positions in numerous energy companies. One of my biggest positions is Atmos (ATO). It's another one we started buying long ago, 1984 in this case, when shares were selling for $12 or so. We had it in a company-sponsored DRIP, no fees, buying directly from Atmos as a customer. All my kids and grandkids have accounts in ATO's DRIP program. ATO is a perfect example of Buffet's approach to investing, slow and steady.
I also have COP, PSX, ET, KMI, ENB, and a couple of others. Have to go look.
Energy companies.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
I started buying lots of energy-related stuff when the pandemic shutdown was in full force and the spot price for oil was supposedly negative. Everything was on sale as if the era of big oil was over.
I bought Shell, BP and CVX at bargain basement prices, and also purchased a bunch of energy etfs (IXC, FENY and VDE). Lately I've been liquidating some of the shares of single company stocks because I've gotten burned before (like the BP GOM oil spill) and prefer to spread out my risk. I also got rid of KMI after thinking about it a while, because one ruptured pipeline can cause them to end their generous dividend and maybe even flirt with bankruptcy. I still have exposure to them via the etf names I mentioned.
I like it when the market panics and provides us with great bargains! Just recently got rid of my last bank stock I purchased during the financial collapse (BAC). Lots of dry powder for the next panic....which is a reference to your Warren Buffett posts. Those bank stocks took forever to get going, though.
I hold no bank stocks right now but have ALLY on my watch list.
I have several ETFs, and am heavy, probably too heavy, in REITs and BDCs. Love the dividends!
I am in light in KMI, just 210 shares. I try to spread the risk by holding multiple stocks in each sector, often competitors. Right now, I hold 37 different equities. Have been as high as 45. Dumped some losers in December for tax purposes. My goal is to transition to more divie aristocrats and kings. But, as we have seen, even those are not safe. I sold all my GE and am nursing T for the time being. All of this is play money for me. Like a video game, numbers on a spreadsheet. My real investments are annuities, real estate, and guaranteed retirement accounts.
Helping my daughter get started investing with her online broker's account. If she'll listen...yeah, right!...we won't repeat all the mistake I made. Instead, we'll try out some brand new mistakes :shocked2:.
I'm telling my daughter and son-in-law that FOMO is their biggest enemy. Don't chase stuff into the stratosphere because it always comes back down to Earth, over and over again.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
I try to not recommend specific stocks or funds to anyone because I am the Sgt Schultz of investing. I know nothing.
Interesting bit of trivia about Sgt Schultz. He was actually a Jewish-Austrian and lost lots of relatives in concentration camps during the Nazi regime. I believe he lost all his siblings. I believe the guy that played Klink was a German-born Jew, but his family left before the ugliness started.
Should start your own podcast or something with this advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
There is a You Tube video of the two of them singing a Christmas Carol together. It was very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow
Well, except, it's not advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by JuBru
Oops!
The good news, the TV reporterette said, is all these flights are unmanned. Good thing since SpaceX has been consistently crashing all its rockets. SN9 just the latest casualty of failed test launches. Yes sir, Elon Musk is changing the world. Used to be safe to travel into space, but Musk is changing that, eh!
:D
Thanks for letting me know that. Just watched it...very nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
If they only posted an article each of the hundreds of times they had a successful launch and landing, you would appreciate how atypical it actually is for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Set the hook...Quote:
Originally Posted by Guisslapp
So it was just how to setup the account and not stock strategy advice. Got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
No, it was a quick summary of what I have done, and do, not meant as "advice" for what others should do. This thread is intended for people to share information on possible investment opportunities, like stocks. We also discuss "investment strategies" thus the mention of Warren Buffet's proven track record. But! even though Buffet has been successful does not mean that his long, slow, conversative approach is right in every situation. For instance, too many Americans lack sufficient retirement funds (some have none!). If they are in their late 40's, 50's, 60's they don't have time to fully employ Buffet's system, they need a quicker (riskier) approach.Quote:
Originally Posted by JuBru
For me, please bear in mind what I have disclosed, I am NOT dependent on my investments in the stock market, in my trading accounts I mean, for anything. I could lose it all and not be affected. I do have a tidy sum invested...well, I think it is a tidy sum, other high rollers might laugh at the amount. It is six figures, I will say that. And of course, I want to be successful in my investing, but I don't sweat it.
Now, in my opinion, if you are younger and have time, I think Warren Buffet's approach will work for you. Do your DD, choose good companies, and I also like divie-payers to help grow the nest egg. But, good growth stocks can work too.
We welcome all input, so please, jump in. If you feel comfortable doing so, share what you are doing...any favorite stocks?
Poor ole Elon...
40 of 49 SpaceX satellites burned up in the atmosphere yesterday. Wow! there was a time when satellites would go up and stay for decades. Why, I think Sputnik, launched in 1958 is still in orbit. But Musk is changing the world. Now you can buy a SpaceX satellite and 72 hrs later have it back in your lap!
Very "atypical" eh!
Now I see why Goosey loves Musk/Tesla...Sleepy Joe and Peter Buttplug are now singing the praises.
But Elon Musk is not exactly in tune with you socialist types. I guess y'all think he can be "re-educated" and made to see the light. Meanwhile Musk is more like a dastardly pro-Trumper. At least he expresses opinions that are in line with "Trumpism." For instance, speaking about the push back against mask mandates and such, Musk said, "The road to tyranny is paved with fear." Which is the same sentiment expressed by Ben Franklin when he said: those who exchange liberty for security end up with neither.
Tesla recalls 27K vehicles due to a malfunction.
State of California sues, or charges (whatever), Tesla for racial discrimination at their Freemont, CA plant. The beat goes on!
Heat pump for the defroster for the windshield. Software fix that they push out over-the-air. Don’t even have to bring your car in. The future of recalls, except the present for Tesla.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
We need a "thumbs up" icon. :D
Twitter announcing a 4 Billion stock buyback.. Guess twitter is losing its shine..
https://www.livemint.com/companies/n...501282727.html
https://cdn.banyanhill.com/wp-conten...cybertruck.jpg
Tesla's pick-up truck. Looks like something you'd see in a 1960's SciFi movie operating on another planet.
Saw it on Mystery Science Theater 3000 yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
I know. 1.25 million preorders. Can you imagine if they actually made it look like a truck?Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
You remember when American Airlines was wasting all their cash on buybacks before the pandemic (total of 12.9 billion starting in 2014)…and then they had to go beg the government for a bailout during the pandemic?Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDog
I am out of real estate agency, didn't renew my license. This gives me more flexibility as a real estate investor. Which I am trying to divest everything I hold...well, most everything. There is a small inventory and very little building happening around here. Some markets around the country are doing okay.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Prime rate is 3.5% but heading up. I don't see a bubble that will burst. Actually, the air has been leaking out of the bubble for several years. It's been a seller's market due to low inventory ('round here), buyers have had access to historically low mortgage rates, and yet nothing has been happening. I don't see how a "crash" can happen when the airplane has already skidded to a halt off the runway.
January existing house sales were up 6.7% vs. an expected -1.3% decrease. This is all firmly rooted in the Fed's projected rate hikes and buyers who have been sitting on the fence making a move to lock in lower rates.
Nationwide inventories are at historic lows. Saw where there are only 860,000 houses "on the market." Those numbers used to consistently hover in the 3 million range. While this is not all Biden's fault, it is true his anti-business/anti-American policies have exacerbated this problem, and other economic issues. People "invest" in property, including buying primary residences, when they have confidence in the economy and its (their) future. No one has an inkling of confidence in the clown show in DC in general and the WH in particular.
This "rush" of buying is just the surplus of demand on the edge, or "on the fence," and now that it is mostly gone, used up, housing numbers will trend down as rate hikes, combined with low inventories, inflate the price of property making it harder for average Joes to jump in the market.
I am glad I locked in wholesale contracts for about half of my properties. It's true I could make a little more by "playing this market" but 1) I like the guarantees I have, 2) I am trying to get out of the real estate business. I have a meeting today at 3:00 and one tomorrow at 11:00 with prospective buyers/investors. I want to be RETIRED and not having to do this stuff anymore.
BTW, it is still true, real estate should be part on any serious investors' portfolio. It has been very, very good to us (my wife and I). Like most such great things, my only regret is I didn't do more.
GLTA