They aren’t, but it doesn’t surprise me that you haven’t heard it on FoxNews.
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BTW, in all the swirl of real news, especially all the good news about our raging economy, wages have increased a whopping 3.1% this year. As I posted when we again got a real POTUS, after 8 years of gloom, the economy would take off. It did, but wages lagged behind the rally. I posted the reasons for that and stated wages would catch up. The increase in wages has been steady, but slow, something like 1% or so for a couple of years. All of us who actually know/understand how business/the economy works predicted that would happen but give it time. Well...bam! right on schedule.
Chart shows wage growth topped 3% again in late 2016 and is now at 3.5%. That is better than what I saw reported from another source, of 3.1%. Okay...so Trump's economy is doing even better according to this site.
But it is quite different from what are considered better sources, which show the Trump economy having 1.5-1.9% wage growth in 2017, topping 3% briefly in 2018, dropping back to about 2.5% and now firmly growing at 3%+. I'm not here to be a voice for President Trump, I am interested only in the truth. I trust the other sources more than anything the loony Goosey posts, even though his site puts Trump in an even more favorable light.
Wage increases were expected to lag behind business/economic growth because there are sound, proven, reasons for it. It's not an unusual phenonmena. History shows how this trend repeats when a country recovers from an extended anemic economy. We suffered 8 long years under the worst president in history, through the worst 8 years, economically, this nation has ever experienced. GDP limped along at a woeful 1% (+) for 8 years. WORST recovery after a recession in US history. This is a fact!
But now that we have a real POTUS again, the economy has recovered and his zooming along. Wage growth has caught up, as was expected. It is real!
And unless you think I am just being partisan, I will remind you it is I who have posted many times the best 8-year run for any POTUS was under Bill Clinton whose record nosed out Ronald Reagan's 8 years. Those are the #1 and #2 all-time best economies for any POTUS who had an 8-year tenure. GWB's first 6 years were actually pretty good, but his last two, after the STUPID sub-prime mortgage crash, drug his overall 8-year record way down. Still, his 8 years were MUCH better than obummer's.
Now President Trump is on pace to rival Clinton and Reagan's run over 8 years. I don't know if his economic record will reach those levels. It might! It is certainly possible. What everyone must remember...and most are clueless about this...the size of our economy is many times larger than what Reagan had in the '80's and Clinton in the '90's. So, smaller % gains represents HUGE economic activity.
Pay no attention to delusional anti-Trumpers, especially those suffering from TDS. .
And while us capitalists are seeing the “value” of our ownership interests appreciate, the story is quite different in the manufacturing economy, which has been contracting.
https://www.instituteforsupplymanage...gROB.cfm?SSO=1
Ironically, if and when the US and global economies start to grow again above 3%, central banks will have to start increase interest rates and that will be a giant vacuum that sucks money out of risk assets, and you will most likely see stocks sell off again.
Somebody had been watching the financial experts on CNN and MSNBC again.
Very little, but I am not old. Still, in the US alone, the bond market is twice as big as the stock market. Daily trading volumes in bonds is over 3 times that of the stock market.
As anyone should know, governments outside the US have issued lots of debt at NEGATIVE rates, which has caused foreigners to shift a greater percentage of their fixed income investment into US sovereign debt that actually pays a positive return. This has made the yield rate of longer term US debt to go down.
Most folks can’t get the yields they need from the fixed income part of their portfolio by buying new debt, so it is pushing more people out on the risk curve to get yield, including bond proxy investments like dividend stocks, utilities, REITs and the like.
Not making this stuff up.
Look at the fact that the average P/E for stocks have gone up dramatically over the past 2 years, the relative performance of utilities, the past examples of interest rate sensitivity to the market (remember the sudden sell off in December 2018 when the fed increased rates).
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...ock-market.asp
Rates won’t stay this low forever. At some point that will change, and it will take the air out of the stock market. We are paying well above the average price for corporate earnings today.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bar...ue-51578786380
Quote:
Stocks are expensive–and extremely so—based on several measures. The S&P 500 is trading for almost 19 times projected 2020 earnings, one of the highest readings in more than 40 years. Stocks also look rich based on market value/gross domestic product, price/sales, and price/book ratios.
But they do look fairly valued based on the rule of 20, which reflects the market price/earnings ratio and the inflation rate. If the sum of the two is below 20, stocks look cheap. Above 20, they’re expensive. Right now, the total is around 20. Stocks are appealing based on the earnings yield (the inverse of the P/E ratio) less the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
I have started selling off my stock holdings. At this point in my life, semi-retired and set, I am more into asset protection than concerned about growth. I don't follow the market as closely as I used to, but I did tune into CNBC and watched the pundits some last week. There is still support for the notion the market has more room for upward movement and that the economics of it all is very strong. Caveat emptor.
I do know our economy is strong with more room to grow...if Congress and the Swamp would ever either, join in and participate with our great Prez, or just get the hell out of the way!
The stock market goes up 85 percent of the time. With all the algos, corrections are usually sharp and can be harsh.
There is an old trading adage, “don’t fight the Fed.” For those that follow markets closely, you know that is never more true than now.
In my estimation (and I am not a professional, so caveat emptor as well), the market is largely fully valued and if earnings and guidance don’t meet or exceed expectations the risk is to the downside in the short term. Plus on a RSI basis the market is in overbought territory.
It can stay like this for a while and prices can continue to melt up. But it isn’t really doing it for reasons that are based purely on fundamentals. There does seem to be a growing consensus that the global downturn is bottoming. I hear talk of “green shoots” starting to show in Europe and Emerging Markets.
Still, US manufacturing is weak and the strength of the US economy has been and still is the consumer. If that shows signs of cracks, look out below.
On the plus side, the US still leads the world in Technology, but this industry seem to be hated by Republicans and Democrats alike (at least the populists).
Personally, I don’t really like it when the market is going up because of expansion of P/E multiples. I don’t like having to pay more for the same earnings. I would rather the market go up because companies are actually earning more. That is a much more sustainable basis for appreciation.
WTG TRUMP!
US, China sign historic phase one trade deal
The "Melt Up" theory. Perhaps you've seen Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's offerings for financial advice. I have never subscribed to his stock market newsletter but am on his email marketing list, probably because of my past affiliations with the likes of Motley Fools. Anyway, since the middle of last year, while others preach caution in investing in the market...the big correction to come!...Sjuggerud has been advocating for more bull market yet to come. Thus instead of an economic "melt down" he predicts a "melt up." I finally got curious enough to accept his 30-day free trial and have read some of his stuff. Very interesting. His writings are full of stats and numbers and sound financial/economic theories to lend credence to his overall theory that the market has plenty of room to grow. Mostly, a lot hinges on Trump being reelected and not only continuing his policies, but extending them.
I agree Trump's policies, with a cooperative Congress and a constrained judiciary, will have a HUGE positive impact on the economy and it follows that the stock market would benefit. But, there's more to the market than fundamentals. A shooting war starting in East Bofunk province of the country of Whazdaheckstan causes nervousness and a sell-off in the market. Still, sound economic policies does clear the path for more bullishness in the market.
Vote Trump in 2020! (if you care about your own, and the nation's financial future)
I agree 100%. And though we can't rest, Trump is smoking hot with his base and Independents right now with no end in sight. :icon_razz:
Trump’s New Hampshire vote dwarfs tallies of past incumbents Obama, Bush
Trump has thus far been an awesome POTUS. There are a few things I disagree with him on, but for the most part he has brought the country back from the brink of malaise and decline.
That said, I hope he listens to Barr and limits his tweeting. I have no issues with him rattling the cages of the dem candidates and those in congress that are as corrupt as the day is long, but he really needs to stop undercutting the folks HE appointed while they try to do their jobs. If he has an issue with them, he can always fire them and replace them with someone else, so all the tweets are kind of over the top.
Sometimes I wonder if this is his way to do 4D chess. Think about this for a second... MSM and Democrats were screeching that Barr is just an extension of Trump and not impartial part of DOJ. He is doing Trump's will. They are now praising Barr because of course Orange Man Bad.. and Barr said what he did on ABC yesterday about Trump's tweets.. So now Barr has credibility in eyes of MSM. When Durham's indictments come out and snag some prominent democrats they will be reminded of their positions.
I'd like to think that, but.....I really think this is all impulsive tweeting.
He needs to stop attacking Jerome Powell as well. Everytime he calls for negative interest rates I cringe!
The guy is doing great stuff for the nation. I'd hate to see him lose because of dumb stuff like that.
Voters appreciate his candor. His haters think his anti-establishment candor is unpresidential and shows what a baffoon he is. Meanwhile his poll numbers are going through the roof. Only his hater numbers are going down thanks to blacks and hispanics realizing they have been getting screwed for 50plus years by the left.
Every time I hear one of my fellow conservatives cringe about his tweets or one of his "non-elite" mannerisms I laugh. We'll never again have a non-political person as the POTUS. We should just enjoy and watch the establishment heads explode.
Trump has now handed out more cash in farming subsidies than Obama gave the auto industry. Sorry if this should’ve been posted in the socialism thread.
I am OK with that. It was caused by a policy that they could not foresee and plan around (retaliatory tariffs).
I am also pleased we are pushing back on China, and if I had my way I would cease negotiating with them entirely. I hate it that we have so much of our supply chain running through a dictator-led communist country that is hell bent on destroying us.
All these global warming types should be in favor of this as well. It is the height of hypocrisy to cry about open trade with China (which it wasn't) and be in favor of moving our industrial supply chain there when they do not have the same environmental restrictions as we do here. This is not a concern of mine, but it shows me how much those folks that say they believe in this "science" really believe in it.
Just a point of interest, I guess....the exotic dancer Stormy Daniels is bringing her show to The Hustler Club in Shreveport, March 27 & 28...two shows nightly! Get out there and voice your support, for whomever that may be.
The Fed Gov has always subsidized farmers, to a varying degree, since forever! In this case China was gonna try to leverage wrecking our Ag industry against the tariffs they have to pay, only President Trump out-maneuvered 'em.
Now johnnylightin expresses his disdain for America's farmers, those hard working folks who feed the world. Shame on you johnny. Tell ya what, since you despise them so much you had better start growing your own food.
I didn't support the auto bailout. As I recall that was obummer who did that. But, I do support HELPING farmers out...not providing a living for them or making up for mistakes they might make, but HELPING them remain in business. They feed the world. Now, as I mentioned, China tried to leverage threats against our Ag industry to have a bargaining chip in the negotiations over "fair trade." Trump anticipated what they would do and beat them to the punch. Once again Trump shows why he is the right guy for the job and one of the best POTUS in our entire history.
BTW, when I worked for IP, we wanted to make sure we had enough loggers available during times when our mills might be low on inventory. So, we subsidized some of the smaller loggers to assure they would remain in business. Hand outs? Yeah, but not for their sake, but for ours. It was good business to assure we had a sufficient army of loggers when we NEEDED them. Donald Trump is a businessman...you lefties should just STFU and leave managing the country to the adults.
Yep, it's a tough business. All the more reason to have a plan that HELPS farmers as best we can. Again, NOT to make up for bad management decisions made by individual farmers, but rather to assure the US maintains a viable Ag industry. Who benefits from a complete collapse of farming in the US? Not you and I....
You're both right, from a certain point of view.
Auto Bailout
$79.7 billion handed out
$70.4 billion recovered
$12.2 billion lifetime costs
Chart on page 4
https://home.treasury.gov/system/fil...FY-2019-CJ.pdf
Farm Subsidies under Trump
2017 Farm Subsidies - $11.5 billion
2018 Farm Subsidies - $13.6 billion
2019 Farm Subsidies - $23.6 billion
2020 Farm Subsidies - $14.9 billion*
Total - $63.6 billion*
*As of February 5, 2020
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17833
40% of farm revenue this year will not come from farming.
That was the 2019 number. You won’t believe it because Trump didn’t say it, but I can’t help you with that.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rump-trade-war
Some farm subsidies can be stopped without the need for further review. Such as land owners paid not to produce something. That former ABC reporter Sam Donaldson receives (or used to) over $1 million a year from the USDA to not raise sheep on his private horse ranch. He admitted he was surprised by it, never asked for it, but wasn't turning it down either.
I know a Tech grad, a fine fellow, nothing against him, who receives annual payment to not produce crops on land he inherited from an uncle and upon which the family has only ever hunted on. They had no intention of ever farming/ranching the land, and they still get paid not to.
Just two examples of out-of-whack farm subsidies that should be ended.
Reading comprehension is a problem for Trump haters...
Farming means failure sometimes due to weather. That's why they PURCHASE crop insurance. It's not free and they don't receive it unless they are making an attempt to make a crop which is part of farming. Crop insurance is no more revenue than collecting a check from insurance when your house burns down. Like I said it's not a true statement. Bloomburg is full of shit.
Almost 40% of projected farm profit this year will come from trade aid, disaster assistance, federal subsidies and insurance payments, according to the report, based on Department of Agriculture forecasts. That’s $33 billion of a projected $88 billion in income.
It’s like Medicare for crops: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fede...ce_Corporation
You said farm revenue comes from insurance payments. That money (and some of the other things listed) are not revenue. You and Bloomburg think collecting a check from purchasing insurance equals revenue. You and Bloomburg state these things because you are frantically searching for another reason to hate Trump. arkansasbob thinks because the RMA oversees how crop insurance works it is a government handout to farmers.
Neither is true.
Socialist don't borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to make a crop on land they own or pay for at the risk of weather taking them out. Furthermore, the banks won't loan the money without being covered by insurance.
Call it gross income if it makes you feel better...the point still stands.
And, this isn’t about Trump, it’s about crying socialism when a democrat does something and patriotism when a republican does the same thing.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14...atorship-test/
For those actually paying attention.
Actually, the previous administration checked ALL of those boxes. Including using the FBI/CIA to investigate opponents (and remember how certain members of the media were investigated as well for being perceived enemies of the administration).
Stacking the supreme court????? What kind of stupid comment is that? Perhaps he should appoint only progressive supreme court members to appease his opponents, just like no president ever did.
This may have been the dumbest article I ever scanned. Full of BS! Only a simpleton would fall in line behind this kind of propaganda.
No " the point" is to bash Trump with lies and propaganda. You are all in the middle of the Trump haters an have been since he beat up on your RINO favorites.
Insurance claims of ANY flavor are not income. You conveniently forget the rules of capitalism (insurance and law of large numbers) when they don't apply to your agenda.
"Under the Federal Crop Insurance Program’s unique public-private partnership, there are currently 15 private companies authorized by the United States Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency (USDA RMA) to write MPCI policies. The service delivery side of the program — writing and reinsuring the policies, marketing, adjusting and processing claims, training and record-keeping, etc. — is handled by each private company. The program is overseen and regulated by the Risk Management Agency (RMA). The RMA sets the rates that can be charged and determines which crops can be insured in different parts of the country. The private companies are obligated to sell insurance to every eligible farmer who requests it and retains a large portion of the risk on over 80 percent of the policies written.
The federal government also subsidizes the farmer-paid premiums to reduce the cost to farmers. In addition, it provides reimbursement to the private insurance companies to offset operating and administrative costs that would otherwise be paid by farmers as part of their premium. Through this federal support, crop insurance remains affordable to a majority of America’s farmers and ranchers."
https://cropinsuranceinamerica.org/about-crop-insurance/how-it-works/
it took 3 minutes of research.
It didn't take three minutes of research for me. I understand how crop insurance works. If it was as easy as you claim, everybody would be farming. Crop insurance is not a subsidy. The premiums are not due on the RMA products on the front end. Most farmers elect to "buy up" in order to protect their total investment each year.
That's not the way it is and not the way insurance in general works unless you are a democrat touting Obamacare.
The subsidized insurance income is still only about half of the direct government handout.
http://m.startribune.com/more-than-a...ent/564525932/
The insurance it the only thing I've addressed so far. I stated that some other things on the list are misleading too.
How do your people at Bloomburg feel about Trump's treatment of his relationship with Israel? Too tough on trade? Killing NAFTA was a bad mistake? They mostly agree with RINOS and Socialist Dems who "just want to get along" by giving more and more to the left.
Trump gave away the farm when he agreed to the stupid pre ex clause. As long as he keeps building the fence, holding our "allies" accountable, and spending on defense we will all be better for it.
Subject change noted.
I don’t have people at Bloomberg, so I can’t speak for them.
Trump’s Israel posturing is fine, but it’s not conservative, it’s an outgrowth if dispensational Theology, not conservative thought.
Most true conservatives are free traders, so they recognize that Trump’s trade policies are more aligned with Bernie and AOC than they are with conservatism.
Killing NAFTA and replacing it with something worse was, well, Trumpian.
You’re lecturing me on insurance when your guy is the pre-ex king!
But yeah, I’m the one who’s betraying capitalism!
Capitalism? Not really unless you consider investment in other countries in the name of free trade a good thing.
The market is not complaining about the "Trumpian trade policies". His handling of China is long overdue. Your RINOS would have just kept giving more and taking less until they and China owned everything.
Is Bloomburg upset about him rolling back the Obama mandates that killed O&G? The appointment of more and more conservative federal judges along with more to be named on the Supreme Court?
BTW, your democrat governor is taking full advantage of all those who believed his lies.
He’s your governor too. So much better than that Trump brownnose that the state GOP ran...a crony capitalist Jindal guy!
None of what you said here is what I said and you know it.
The SBC may not be going anywhere, but it will adjust when the money stops coming in.
Trump and Clinton on the same page...ridiculous, but a desperation comparison that is not surprising for a Trump hater and a Clinton empathy guy.
what you are saying makes no sense in context of my arguments. i don't recall claiming anything was easy. in fact i hear it's difficult for small farms to make it because the incentives favor corporations (it would take a little more than three minutes of research for me to be comfortable saying whether i agree with that or not).
bottom line: with private insurance, the insuring company has to collect enough money in premiums to pay for their claims and still make a profit. this isn't rocket science. with crop insurance, a large part of the risk is taken by the federal government, which means the insurance companies can charge (are required to charge) much less than it would cost if it were a purely private enterprise. this is a subsidy, and it does result in higher net income for farmers that take advantage of it.
I disagree as Dispensational Theology is a very, very conservative thought and interpretation. God has and will honor Trump AMERICA for protecting and siding with Israel and their people even as it exists today. This is a biblical promise that I believe in and has led to so many blessings of our great country since WWII. Of course I also believe in the other ideas and interpretations that Dispensational Theology holds.
Also IMHO, Trump is only trying to fix a terrible system of historically large inequality toward the USA as for as trade is concerned. He is actually trying to make it a "true fair free trade" system for all. The political elitist establishments/swamp have been deathly afraid to address this for 80 years. America will benefit tremendously if successful with China, Mexico and Canada etc... I applaud him for it.
And as far as Trump now being a changed or more moral man, that is between he and the Lord. From what I have gathered and heard, that one part of his life you are probably referring to has changed. And the man is trying to change his life around and has Christians surrounding him daily that are good mentors and prayer warriors. His banter and counter punching hasn't changed one bit for sure. FWIW, keep in mind, a member of our community and church is Congressman Louis Gohmert.
Thank goodness someone will finally stand up for Inside traders and Governors that try to sell senate seats.
Yes, I'm now Anti Trump.:icon_roll:
Trump isn't allowed to play the democrat fools for what they are, but Obama is good to go because his skin is light brown.
Not my taste. I never watched the Kardashian show(s???) or any of the other "reality" tv shows, either (including Springer and Trump).
I did watch American Chopper for a while, but that got stupid really fast. It went from a show about building motorcycles to a show about a dysfunctional bunch of jerks building substandard (and likely dangerous) junk that people bought just because it was on TV.
As a matter of reference, I did not vote for Trump BECAUSE he was involved in these kinds of shows (I just didn't vote at all, because the opponent was rather worthless too).
Sad that so many who came here legally as adults or even children are more American than some people who were born and raised here. Glad we have them though.
President Trump is in India establishing a new cooperative relationship, well, stepping it up to a new level with the world's largest democracy. India is larger than China now with 1.4 billion people. India is also the 4th largest/most powerful military in the world, behind China, Russia, and the US. They will soon catch and surpass China into 3rd place thanks to President Trump's policies selling US military equipment to India, replacing Putin/Russia as their number one suppplier.
About a year+ ago the Trump administration was criticized for "looking the other way" as India purchased some military materials from Russia. Well...that was all spare parts for some of India's current equipment. They had to keep their equipment operating. Eight years of obummer forced India to look elsewhere for modernized equipment so they reluctantly turned to Russia. India is in the process of phasing out their Russian equipment replacing it with US, French and German made equipment. Putin is furious! he has lost influence in India. Yet, MSNBC says Putin wants Trump re-elected...
India has nukes and has a VERY modern, and HUGE, military. The US and India just completed a joint military training operation, the first such in more than 20 years. Make no mistake about it, should the unthinkable happen, some kind of world war, India will be a valuable ally of the US and our western allies.
Trump is there mostly to negotiate a new, better, trade deal with India. The future is bright for our relationship with the world's largest democracy...thanks to President Trump.
I personally have three Indian business associates...and one from Nepal. Great people! They are very entrepreneurial! Yes...one of them is in the hotel business and now owns 14 separate properties in the US. Mostly Comfort Inns and a few Hampton Inns. BTW, he just relocated to Tyler, Texas after buying two hotels there.
Trump's trade policies and deals will and are paying off.
Trump rallies massive crowd, visits Taj Mahal, inks military deal with Modi
TRUMP SPEAKS TO 110,000 AT RAUCOUS INDIA RALLY...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERhw7qpW...pg&name=medium
Looks like a couple of hundred at the Biden "rally" tonight.
Thanks goodness for Trump and his judges!
Supreme Court to hear high-stakes abortion case...
Will decide fate of Obamacare -- again...
And his negotiating skills.
TRUMP MEETING WITH PHARMACEUTICALS TO ACCELERATE CORONAVIRUS VACCINE
CHARLIE SPIERING
Trump is about a mile or so from my house right now surveying tornado damage (I was close enough to actually hear the thing when it hit). The folks here love him.
Good job numbers for February and unemployment rate of 3.5%. It's become so common that it's become the "new normal." But! one has to remember this has only happened under Trump, and before now 4% was always considered "full employment." Under Bill Clinton we averaged over 5% unemployment for his 8 years, only dipping to 4% in 2000, his last year in office. And! the economy was strong during his term. obummer's best year was his last in office, 2016, and it was still over 5%. His average was close to 7% for his whole 8 years. And the economy sucked for his term.
Now, this Covid-19 scare should impact both the economy and job numbers for March and for the next few months. It'll be a temporary setback. Especially when everyone realizes it is much ado about nothing.
Trump is doing a great job, and it'll only get better after the GOP has control of both houses.