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Elite Azoz Regiment kicking some serious ass near Bakhmut. Although some in the media still refer to them as the "Azoz Battalion," the unit is now officially a full regiment, that's two battalions. Regardless, the mere mention of their presence scares the bajeezy out of the Russkies and their evil allies. The Azoz Regiment circled around and behind a brigade of Putin-loyal Chechens and when the bad guys learned who it was they were facing, most fled and those trapped quickly surrendered, begging for mercy. With hardly a shot being fired and very few casualties inflicted, an entire segment of the Russkie line east of Bakhmut dissolved away. This allowed the Azoz Regiment to inflict some hits on a Wagner unit who were unaware their support to their left had disappeared. Unfortunately, the damage done was minimal since the Azoz Regiment went in light and fast, no heavy weapons. Still, they broke Putin's line and at last report have withstood a counterattack, holding a chunk of the line. NATO observers commented the Ukrans should have planned for the possibility of a such a breakthrough and had heavy support units ready to roll.
Now, the Ukrans are trying to rally support units, including tanks and mobile artillery, but the Russkies are also mounting heavy units to try to push the Azoz Regiment off the line. It's a race to see who can get there first.
Further to the south, the whole Putin winter offensive has fizzled. The Russkies have suffered very heavy losses in exchange for minor gains on the ground. In one sector, the Russkies advanced 3 miles, while losing an estimated 12,000 soldiers. And now those advanced units are trying to hold on with supply issues due to Ukran artillery and drones interrupting the supply line. Also, more and more Western equipment is arriving, including US Abrams tanks, and the Ukrans are content to wait for better spring weather to mount a comprehensive counterattack.
Putin is losing.
President Erdogan of Turkey is straddling the fence, playing both sides against the middle. Yes, he is doing what he thinks is best for his country, and the region, but he is parlaying his NATO membership into a Turkey-first, NATO-second posture. I don't trust Erdogan and still condemn his anti-Kurd actions which resulted in the slaughter of 19,000 Kurds, including women, children, and the elderly.
Turkey (Erdogan) spoke out against Putin's invasion of Crimea in 2014 but was left alone when NATO, due to obummer's weakness, didn't seem to care. To this day Erdogan supports Crimea's return to Ukraine. As of March 1, 2023, Erdogan is supporting Ukraine with supplying military supplies/equipment and is supporting the Turin Battalion, now a 600-man unit, operating near Bakhmut. The "news" the battalion had landed in Crimea was a ruse. But Erdogan is also maintaining strong economic ties to Putin and has made three offers to broker a peace deal between Putin and Ukraine, offers both sides have rejected. In the bigger picture Turkey is a major player in world politics, sitting as they do between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
On another note, I don't buy the nuclear threat from Putin as some panty-wads keep screaming. His generals would never support such an escalation. Putin cannot, by himself, push a button that launches nukes. Most intelligent, calm, rational observers dismiss this alarmist nonsense. Which should bring comfort to you shimmering souls, ready to hide under your school desk.
...you're welcome.
A British Think Tank, on all things military and geopolitical, released a report this morning that the Ukrans are in real peril in Bakhmut, about to be encircled and trapped. Apparently the Pentagon has been advising the Ukrans to withdraw from Bakhmut in favor of a much better position on a series of ridges a few miles west of the town. Also, it is reported that Biden, in consultation with the Pentagon and NATO allies, is advising withholding US equipment, namely the Abrams tanks, from Ukran units in Bakhmut. It would be embarrassing to have a number of US tanks captured by the Russkies.
This report went on to point out that Bakhmut has long since lost its strategic value as the roads through it have been cut (captured) by Putin's forces north and south and the only remaining roads still open to the Ukrans is straight west back to those ridges. However, it appears that President Z has made holding Bakhmut a matter of national pride. It is reported that Biden made this point to Z on his recent visit. The ridges overlook two large Ukrainian cities, both larger than Bakhmut and both in Donbas.
For six months Putin has thrown everything he has at taken Bakhmut and has lost 60,000 soldiers and tons and tons of equipment. Western advisors to the Ukrans are saying they have bled Putin as best they can and they should take this small victory and retire west to those ridges, while there is still time.
And then, there is this. A Polish military advisor has mentioned that Bakhmut might become a trap for Putin's forces, IF (big IF) the Ukrans can mount sufficient forces to launch a counterattack and in fact encircle the Russkies there. Putin has greatly weakened both his northern and southern flanks by sending in reserves to the Bakhmut battle. This was recently demonstrated by the Azoz Regiment easily capturing a segment of the Russkie line south of Bakhmut. Reports by other Western sources say President Z has been seeking the support to launch such an operation to trap Putin's forces at Bakhmut.
Of course, there is also this possibility. The Ukrans can continue to stubbornly make Putin fight for every inch of Donbas, while they concentrate forces to retake Crimea.
In any case, it is very clear that Putin's expected walk-over will not happen in Donbas and may never happen. If Bakhmut has been this much trouble for Putin...6 months and horrific losses...then trying to capture those ridges further west will be a real nightmare and would take years and years and years. The Ukrans have been busy fortifying the ridges, securing supplies and also securing the roads (supply lines) into the area. Which is why Western advisors, including the Pentagon, are telling President Z it is time to save his soldiers in Bakhmut, who have been fighting so gallantly for 6 months against huge odds.
Whatever the details...Putin is losing.
Looks like its time to update this chart for Bakhmut
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmJVuzlW...png&name=small
Conflicting reports and propaganda...
This morning I watched 7 different reports, with the scale tipping 4-3 in favor of the Ukrans still holding Bakhmut and being able to indefinitely, provided they have the will and the support (from NATO).
On the negative side of the ledger, Think Tanks are predicting the encirclement of Bakhmut, just a matter of time. And that NATO has supposedly told Prez Z they will withhold additional aid if said equipment/supplies is sent to Bakhmut.
But, on the flip side, by holding Bakhmut the Ukrans have the perfect launch point to mount a counter-offensive from to drive Putin out of Ukraine. And there are significant realities coming into play right now. Not the least of which is the thawing of the ground turning fields into muddy quagmires that cannot support the movement of heavy vehicles. Already unusually warm weather has caused a halt to the advance of Russkie units trying to encircle Bakhmut as tanks have become bogged down in the mud. In one instance a Wagner mechanized unit tried to push across open fields and got stuck in the open. The Ukrans then sent in drones and poured artillery fire on them, slaughtering the helpless units. Then, in a pro-Putin propaganda piece, from an American source (ahem) a video was released with the headline: Terrible Backlash against Ukraine as 700 Russian (Wagner mercenaries) are Massacred. Why would anyone publish such crap? First of all, what "terrible backlash"? From whom? I say, good show Ukrans! Massacre some more!
Clearly the tactical situation at Bakhmut is critical and is somewhat precarious for the Ukrans. But, it is equally so, and even more so, for Putin. The Ukrans could conduct a strategic withdrawal a little further west and occupy an even stronger defensive position, and still deny Putin full occupation of Donbas. But, failure to take Bakhmut means the end for Putin's evil intentions. "Losing" Bakhmut means a minimal, temporary disappointment for the Ukrans. Not taking Bakhmut spells doom for Putin.
Putin is losing.
Latest...
Appears the Ukrans have evacuated eastern Bakhmut, removing their forces east of the river which flows thru the city. Ukran engineers built two pontoon bridges which allowed their troops to cross, then destroyed the bridges denying their use to the Russkies. This is not surprising as east Bakhmut had become untenable. The Russkies now control 55% of Bakhmut.
There are conflicting reports coming out of Kyiv as some say President Z has "convinced" his generals to hold Bakhmut, and other reports stating that Z has now agreed with his generals to evacuate Bakhmut to save the forces there. The Ukrans are massing units west of the city, but it is not clear if these units are being sent in to simply clear a path for a massive retreat, or if these units are part of a counter-offensive to drive the Russkies away from Bakhmut.
Well, lest we forget, here's a quick recap of the Bakhmut region. In the early days of the war, February 2022, the Russkies easily swept thru the region capturing all of Donbas and establishing Bakhmut as a supply base and HQ for one of its armies operating in Ukraine. In the early stages of the war Russkie forces were WEST of Kyiv and Putin announced he would capture President Z and then execute him, his family, all of his closest advisors and generals and their combined families. Then, bam! Putin's evil plans ran into reality and he got his ass kicked.
So, for the past 6 months Putin's thugs have been slugging it out trying to retake Bakhmut, after they had been pushed out of it. Putin's casualties, just at Bakhmut have exceeded 70,000 (not that he cares) and still, today, March 7, 2023 he has barely recovered half of the city.
I think...pure speculation on my part...Putin has designs on capturing militarily all of the two eastern provinces he illegally annexed, holding Crimea, and then seeking an end to the war, whereby he can declare a "victory" and not lose face both internationally and domestically. At this point that is all he can possibly accomplish anyway. Clearly his designs on taking all of Ukraine is off the table.
I still marvel at the rest of the world's tolerance of Putin's evil invasion. When Hitler invaded Poland on September 1, 1939 France and England immediately declared war, as did their closest allies. The US tried to stay out of it declaring neutrality, even though FDR did get Congressional approval to supply the allies through the lend/lease program. Today the world watches this horrific evil unfolding in Ukraine and just kind of shrugs it off. Worse! I read comments on blogs from folks rooting for Putin. I don't get it.
Many such cases!Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Russkies claim major victory as they destroyed the Azoz Regimental HQ building. Wow! Only, the building had been abandoned as the regiment has fallen back closer to Ukranian lines around Bakhmut. The building in question had been an office building in a nearby community, temporarily occupied by Azoz Regiment staff, used for a couple of weeks, then abandoned. But, upon learning this, the Russkies shelled the building with artillery and then finished it off sending in two tanks. Russkies soldiers celebrated their hard-won victory over an empty building...:rolleyes:
Other than this, the only news in recent days is casualties piling up on both sides, mostly on the Russkie side as the fighting continues all around and in Bakhmut. One Ukran officer, not wanting to be identified, said there is no reason for they (the Ukrans) to still be in Bakhmut. He said the road is opened for a withdrawal and our new defensive positions have been prepared. Only politics is keeping us here, he said.
Putin is accused of murdering 39 "elites," political opponents, and even some of his former loyal staffers. Of course, at only 39 murders the Klintons scoffed calling Putin a "lightweight."
In other news, the Ukrans retaliated for the destruction of the empty building (used by the Azoz Regiment for a spell) by destroying the HQ building of a Russkie army corps, also used by elements of the Wagner Group. Only, in this case, there were Russian and Wagner officers and staff in the building! Casualties remain unconfirmed but sources say as many as 40 Russkies may have been killed in the attack.
The Ukrans are still holding the western portion of Bakhmut and Putin continues to lose troops and equipment trying to take it. One source claims Putin has lost another 30,000 soldiers just the past two weeks in his renewed offensive to seize all of Bakhmut. Whether that number is accurate or not it is clear the Russkies (mostly Wagner's conscripts) are suffering heavy losses at Bakhmut.