Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stodgdog
Remember that his opinion, though well thought out, is with little information and purely speculative. Many on this board were really high on the Dawgs after the two games prior to last Saturday's debacle. That was an overreaction, also. Team sports are odd that way. I was encouraged, but not overly so.
I think our team will be fine. No, I am not a sunshine pumper so don't label me as such. Any one who knows me also knows that. But, I have not given up on this edition of the football Dawgs and am quite sure the players and coaches have not, either.
Everyone's opinion is purely speculative until you sit and watch your team get the crap beat out of them 28-7. What you see in front of you, really is what you see in front of you.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HogDawg
I appreciate the clarification about what you said on the radio. Thank you. That said, you're wrong about J'Mar improving this year. The stats don't support your claim. Below are J'Mar's 2017 season passing stats after his first 5 games, vs his 2018 season passing stats after his first 5 games. They are remarkably similar. In fact, they are so similar that it proves what some of us have been saying; there's been no noticeable improvement (at least statistically) in J'Mars 2018 performance vs his 2017.
J'Mar Smith's 5-Game Y/Y Passing Stats:
Category:.......................2017 ...........2018
Pass completions............... 97..................99
Pass attempts...................169................178
Passing Yards.................1,320.............1,256
TD Passes...........................7................ ....9
INT's..................................3.......... ..........5
Avg QB Rating..............129.7.............129.4
Again, as you can see, J'Mar's passing stats this season are essentially THE SAME as they were after 5 games in 2017. Furthermore, one could easily argue that J'Mar's 2017 "first 5-game" stats were compiled against a tougher schedule than this season's were. The first 5 games in 2017 included road games at SEC South Carolina and CUSA defending champion WKU, as well as a date with SEC Miss State in Ruston.
All this to say, the stats don't lie, and they DO NOT support your statement that J'Mar has improved.
I do agree, the stats are very similar.
BUT, when you look at adjusted completion %, which is a metric that solely evaluates the QB, not the elements around him, he ranks 32nd in the nation in 2018. That’s up from 58th last season.
The Tech WRs already have 61% of their total drops from a season ago in only 38% of the game. Is that the QBs fault?
In total, Tech has the 2nd most drops in the country with 40 fewer passing attempts than the leader. A drop is considered a pass that hits the WRs hands.
75% of his throws have been considered catchable targets. That’s up from 66% a season ago. Is that an improvement?
The offensively line ranks 131st out of 200 (yes, I included FCS) in blocking efficiency. Is that the QBs fault?
The OL ranks 104th in the nation in keeping pocket clean at 65.7% of the time. Is that the QBs fault?
So I guess you can look at stats only to make an evaluation, or you can dive deeper into the data to form your opinion. You may be right, but I believe our QB has improved and that data supports it.
I took data from Pro Football Focus.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TrueBulldog1962
I do agree, the stats are very similar.
BUT, when you look at adjusted completion %, which is a metric that solely evaluates the QB, not the elements around him, he ranks 32nd in the nation in 2018. That’s up from 58th last season.
The Tech WRs already have 61% of their total drops from a season ago in only 38% of the game. Is that the QBs fault?
In total, Tech has the 2nd most drops in the country with 40 fewer passing attempts than the leader. A drop is considered a pass that hits the WRs hands.
75% of his throws have been considered catchable targets. That’s up from 66% a season ago. Is that an improvement?
The offensively line ranks 131st out of 200 (yes, I included FCS) in blocking efficiency. Is that the QBs fault?
The OL ranks 104th in the nation in keeping pocket clean at 65.7% of the time. Is that the QBs fault?
So I guess you can look at stats only to make an evaluation, or you can dive deeper into the data to form your opinion. You may be right, but I believe our QB has improved and that data supports it.
I took data from Pro Football Focus.
Hmmm...figures don't lie, but liars figure.
OK...get busy with a rebuttal HD! I'll hang up and listen.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
johnnylightnin
🍿💻
Ha! No popcorn needed. I’m an analytical guy, he’s probably not. It’s no big deal to me, we could argue all day.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
revf
They publish another tech website for 9.95 a month if you want to know who it was.
And yes, the gist of the show was Skip is doing a great job. 4 bowl wins in a row. We should shut up and be happy with what we get. Our expectations are too high.
That may not have been said verbatim but I hear it all the time. And the people I hear it from all have one thing in common; they talk about being Tech fans out of one side of their mouth, and drink the purple and gold koolaid out of the other side.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Is it considered a dropped pass if he throws it to a guys shoelaces or throws it 9 feet high to a 5’9” receiver and our receiver is lucky to graze the ball with a finger? Just curious if it has to be a catchable ball to be considered a drop.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Stats are facts, but stats don’t always tell the whole story. Passes behind the WR or at the WR’s feet count as drops, but anyone watching knows it was an errant pass. Catchable? Yes, but good QBs make it easier on pass catchers, not more challenging.
We can argue stats all day, but the eyeball test is probably the most accurate evaluator. And I don’t think anyone with eyeballs would argue that J’Mar is a good QB. He has a strong arm, but lacks accuracy & touch. He is also lacking leadership & awareness. Those are some pretty important traits and he is lacking them all, which indicates he sucks at QB. (IMO)
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
techman05
Is it considered a dropped pass if he throws it to a guys shoelaces or throws it 9 feet high to a 5’9” receiver and our receiver is lucky to graze the ball with a finger? Just curious if it has to be a catchable ball to be considered a drop.
It has to hit hands to be considered a drop.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hambone29
Stats are facts, but stats don’t always tell the whole story. Passes behind the WR or at the WR’s feet count as drops, but anyone watching knows it was an errant pass. Catchable? Yes, but good QBs make it easier on pass catchers, not more challenging.
We can argue stats all day, but the eyeball test is probably the most accurate evaluator. And I don’t think anyone with eyeballs would argue that J’Mar is a good QB. He has a strong arm, but lacks accuracy & touch. He is also lacking leadership & awareness. Those are some pretty important traits and he is lacking them all, which indicates he sucks at QB. (IMO)
This is my point, I don’t consider it a catchable ball if the receiver has to throw his back out trying to reverse course to catch a ball three feet behind him at knee level when the pass should have been chest high 2 feet in front, regardless of whether the receiver got a hand on the ball.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
techman05
This is my point, I don’t consider it a catchable ball if the receiver has to throw his back out trying to reverse course to catch a ball three feet behind him at knee level when the pass should have been chest high 2 feet in front, regardless of whether the receiver got a hand on the ball.
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/640x360/p03z0v23.jpg
Lol. Come on 6 pm!
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Smith is our QB for this season and next unless he gets injured or quits. That’s the way it is. But consider this, Holtz had an All American at QB, three NFL WR’s and two future NFL RB’s on the same offense in 2015 and still couldn’t win a conference championship. So it wouldn’t matter if Smith was Montana, in the end we’d still find a way to lose.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TrueBulldog1962
It has to hit hands to be considered a drop.
I'm on the record calling this the worst WR corps in Tech history. Of course, I did not do any analysis going back to the 1950's and prior, so if someone were to post, nope D80! the 1937 team had worse receivers. I would say, okay. Point is these WRs suck. So, our equally lousy QB has not been bailed out too much with the receivers making numerous great plays. True.
But for anyone to state that Smith has improved....wow! in comparison to what!? He was the absolutely, absolutely lousiest QB in Tech history....well, a bit of a hyperbole...point is, he sucks. So, in 2018 he's improved to "the absolutely lousiest" (just one absolutely)? HD posted stats comparing 2017 to 2018. That is the fairest comparison that can be done. We are comparing what Smith did vs. what Smith did in VERY similar circumstances.
I had not seen those numbers prior to HD posting them here. Yet! I, and others, have stated emphatically Smith has not progressed. We didn't NEED stats...Smith was failing the eye test week after week. I have tried....really, really tried to find something we could point to...I posted after the LSU game he was better at stepping up into the pocket...I even likened it to Drew Brees! Talk about REACHING!!!
This is no longer just about J'Mar Smith, this is about Tech Football. We can do better at the QB position. We KNOW what a good college QB looks like. We know what they accomplish on the field. Time to move on to someone else.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TrueBulldog1962
I do agree, the stats are very similar.
BUT, when you look at adjusted completion %, which is a metric that solely evaluates the QB, not the elements around him, he ranks 32nd in the nation in 2018. That’s up from 58th last season.
The Tech WRs already have 61% of their total drops from a season ago in only 38% of the game. Is that the QBs fault?
In total, Tech has the 2nd most drops in the country with 40 fewer passing attempts than the leader. A drop is considered a pass that hits the WRs hands.
75% of his throws have been considered catchable targets. That’s up from 66% a season ago. Is that an improvement?
The offensively line ranks 131st out of 200 (yes, I included FCS) in blocking efficiency. Is that the QBs fault?
The OL ranks 104th in the nation in keeping pocket clean at 65.7% of the time. Is that the QBs fault?
So I guess you can look at stats only to make an evaluation, or you can dive deeper into the data to form your opinion. You may be right, but I believe our QB has improved and that data supports it.
I took data from Pro Football Focus.
So, you're still arguing that J'Mar has improved in 2018, despite the statistics posted above? :laugh: You and Skip Holtz are in denial, and just can't face reality. You want to blame other players.
As others have rightfully pointed out, balls thrown at our WR's feet, and marginally behind a running receiver are still considered a "drop" by our WR as long as he touches it. God help us if J'Mar ever hits one of our WR's ON THE RUN, like he's supposed to. Do you realize how seldom THAT has happened in 2018? He won't even throw the slant pass (because the receiver is running). He's seems to be only comfortable throwing the "button-hook", or some other such pass that has our WR standing still at the time of reception. J'Mar appears to not be comfortable throwing to receivers on the run.
The mere fact that LA Tech has the 2nd most drops in the country should tell you all you need to know about J'Mar's delivery.
As for our OL, the New Orleans Saints OL would have a hard time blocking for J'Mar, because he's so indecisive, and holds the ball too long. You've heard the stories; you know he zeroes in on one receiver and waits, and waits, and waits until that receiver gets open, or he throws the ball away. That's the biggest distinction between J'Mar's release, and our recently successful QB's (Colby, Driskel, Sokol, & Higgins). Even Tim Ratty (1997-99) made an art out of getting rid of the ball quickly. But not J'Mar. He just doesn't have faith that he can throw "on pattern" and his WR will be open. So he frequently holds the ball too long and misses the open window.
The toughest job in America might be OL for a QB like J'Mar.
Re: Coach - Try something different the next two weeks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dawg80
I'm on the record calling this the worst WR corps in Tech history. Of course, I did not do any analysis going back to the 1950's and prior, so if someone were to post, nope D80! the 1937 team had worse receivers. I would say, okay. Point is these WRs suck. So, our equally lousy QB has not been bailed out too much with the receivers making numerous great plays. True.
But for anyone to state that Smith has improved....wow! in comparison to what!? He was the absolutely, absolutely lousiest QB in Tech history....well, a bit of a hyperbole...point is, he sucks. So, in 2018 he's improved to "the absolutely lousiest" (just one absolutely)? HD posted stats comparing 2017 to 2018. That is the fairest comparison that can be done. We are comparing what Smith did vs. what Smith did in VERY similar circumstances.
I had not seen those numbers prior to HD posting them here. Yet! I, and others, have stated emphatically Smith has not progressed. We didn't NEED stats...Smith was failing the eye test week after week. I have tried....really, really tried to find something we could point to...I posted after the LSU game he was better at stepping up into the pocket...I even likened it to Drew Brees! Talk about REACHING!!!
This is no longer just about J'Mar Smith, this is about Tech Football. We can do better at the QB position. We KNOW what a good college QB looks like. We know what they accomplish on the field. Time to move on to someone else.
I would say our WR is very talented, however, they are VERY inconsistent. The Dooley years was probably the worst group of WR we’ve had in recent memory.
