Russia

In other news the Russians have turned up the heat in counter-attacks both north and south of Bakhmut. The pressure has been on in the northern sector for months, but this is new south of the city. Russians seem intent in trying to recapture the village of Andiivka (not to be confused with the much larger city of Avdiivka where major combat has been on-going for several months). Andiivka sits west of the railroad line and berm and was retaken by the Ukrans about 6 months ago. They still hold the village but the Russians have thrown many hundreds of fresh troops into the fight and there is heavy combat along the RR berm. This general area was liberated and has been held mostly by the 3rd Assault Brigade (the Azov), but not clear which Ukran unit is doing the fighting along the berm right now. Details to follow later, I'm sure.

Germany sending 25 more Leopard I main battle tanks, 4 recovery vehicles, which are wreckers on a tank chassis, and two trainer tanks, obviously to train more tankers to come.

Sweden still considering selling their "Griffon" fighter-bomber jets to Ukraine. Several Ukrainian pilots have undergone some training in the "Griffons" just to see how well Ukran pilots would adapt to the jets. It went well and is very encouraging. The jet's name is actually Gripen, but an American pilot thought they were saying "Griffon" the mythical creature, and the nickname has since be used.

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Attacks and counter-attacks, some advances, some withdrawals, and lots of more dead Russians and destroyed armored vehicles. That summarizes the past 48 hours for the most part.

Two Ukran successes, however, to report. Ukrainians seized more ground close to Verboze, this part of the fighting in the Robotyne sector. Unlike the Russians who throw a 1,000 men and 20 tanks into an attack, mostly pell mell hoping something "sticks," the Ukrans use small platoon and squad-sized attacks, carefully planned with artillery and drone support, and take ground slowly, but steadily, and tend not to lose it back to the Russians. In this case, the Ukrans have advanced about 500 meters, which is a pretty good chunk of ground by their usual standards.

'The Eagles" are here! A just-revealed new Ukran special forces unit announced its presence over captured Russian radio equipment, as they crossed the Dnieper River during the night, attacked and wiped out a Russian outpost in the town of Oleshky, the largest town south of the river in that region. It is still being held by Russian forces but becoming more and more untenable for them. "The Eagles" captured a Russian officer, a major, and took him back with them as they went back to Kherson City across the river. "The Eagles" as they call themselves, is a special forces unit...not sure of overall size...reportedly trained by US special forces, thus the unit's nickname of "The Eagles."

Ukran units were compelled to retire to safer ground after intensive Russian bombing, using their glide bombs, near the village of Krynky. Russian infantry attempted to seize the moment and advance, but as soon as the bombing ceased, Ukran troops hurried back to their previous positions and forced the Russians to retreat.

All kinds of reports of explosions, train derailments, towns on fire, factories being sabotaged, attacks on Russian army supply depots, etc. all inside of Russia itself. Can't be sure what is true, what isn't, and also what may be just accidents and what is really sabotage. A major train derailment, a long 50+ boxcar train, had by confirmed report, 17 cars of Russian military supplies, but Russian officials are dismissing this as another sabotage saying it was just an accident on a sector of old, worn-out rail. Fires are reported in both Moscow and St. Petersburg which anti-Putin sources claim were set by rebels who are against the Putin regime.

Meanwhile, still no tangible proof Putin is still alive.

One of two main highways into/out of Oleshky has been cut, denying its use to the Russians. Two large bridges several miles apart have been destroyed by Ukran commandos and now the Ukrans have those places targeted by HIMARS missiles should the Russians attempt to rebuild or replace them. That effectively cuts the highway closest to the Dnieper River leaving only the other which runs straight south out of Oleshky and through various villages in a long circuitous route.

The Ukrans have gained more ground south of Krynky despite the heavy bombing by Russian fighter-bombers. They are now within 40 miles of the border with Crimea. Most of this ground is wetlands, swamps, and marshes with just two decent roads crossing through it. The Ukrans are not ready to even attempt a large push down these roads as they would be easy targets for Russian planes. But then, the Russians have learned they can't use the roads either, especially as they approach Krynky, as Ukran HIMARS have the roads zeroed-in. One over-zealous Ukran YouTuber claimed the Russians lost 60 tanks on these roads in the past 24 hours. Ah, no, but they did lose several vehicles, including one tank for sure.

The Pro-Putin spin masters claim Russia has mobilized 65,000 troops and 500 tanks being sent to the Kherson area to drive the Ukrans back across the river. Utter nonsense! Shouldn't take that many anyway since the Ukrans have only about 400 soldiers and some armored vehicles south of the river. What they do have, however, are HIMARS and long-range artillery supporting these troops from the northern bank of the river.

The Guardian, a usually reliable British newspaper and source for the truth in Ukraine, is reporting that the Ukrans are sending three full brigades across the Dnieper River to expand the bridgehead at Krynky. That would be between 9,000-10,000 troops. Wow! if true. Other pro-Ukran sources, including two YouTubers I follow, are saying, "wow" too but kind of doubting the reliability of this report. What we do know is that some officers, command structure, of several brigades have been in Kherson City, which would be the jumping off point for such an operation. Are they there planning this move? Could be. It would be the necessary first step for such a massive operation. Such a massive troop movement, especially across the Dieper River, is not something that can be done in secret. So, we will know for sure if this operation begins.

Meanwhile, the rest of 700-mile front was more of the same. The Ukrans are making small gains toward Verboze, but it is very doubtful they will be able to liberate and then hold that village prior to the coming of winter. Ukran units drove back the Russians gains south of Bakhmut. It was the 3rd Assault Brigade (Azov) involved in that fighting. Near the village of Shumy, which is on a sector of the line that has been very quiet for more than a year, the Ukrans gained ground by taking a patch of woods to the east. Shumy is about halfway between Bakhmut and Avdiivka. At Avdiivka, the Russians are making small gains north of that city, but paying a very heavy price for it. Yesterday the Russians advanced about 50 meters crossing from one woods line to another. They lost over 400 soldiers, 1 tank, and 2 APCs in doing so. The Ukrans had a single tank and 10 men defending the woods line and were able to withdraw with zero casualties.

War is hell!

Ukran commandos snuck onto a Russian army post, blocked the doors of a barracks where some 100 Russian soldiers were sleeping, then tossed grenades through the windows and opened fire with their rifles. Being reported that only a few of the Russians survived, and they are wounded. Other Russians rushed toward the commotion compelling the handful of Ukrans to withdraw back into a forested area. But the damage was done. Turns out both sentry posts on that part of the base were vacant, no guards anywhere to be found, allowing the Ukrans to easily sneak into the post. Oh well.

Just watched a video highlighting the numerous foreign units fighting for Ukraine, including two separate American mercenary companies. There are 39 different nations involved from all over the world. Many of these foreign bands are small groups, such as the 18 heros from Sumatra. That's an island in Indonesia. They have adopted the nickname of "The Tigers" since there are tigers in the wild in Sumatra. So far, one of their number has been wounded in combat but even he appeared in a photo, him bandaged up, as they proudly displayed their flag. Some countries have units at full company strength which is between 120-150 soldiers, and there are several full battalions too, of some 500 soldiers, such as the Scandinavian unit composed of volunteers from Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. Both American units are platoon size, about 35-40 soldiers, and they operate as part of regular Ukrainian battalions. There was one released video a month or so back showing one of these American units in combat, taking over some Russian trenches. But no news other than that I have seen.

Anyway, kudos to all these gallant volunteers from around the world, fighting evil imperialism.

Ramifications...

anyone paying attention to the war in Ukraine might just focus on events in Ukraine, specifically the four eastern provinces (including Crimea as one of the four) of Ukraine. There we see Russia suffering huge losses in men and equipment and yet they are still able to launch more failed offensives and it appears they have an inexhaustible supply of both. Well, not so.

Russia has been stripping their defenses elsewhere, most recently from their isolated territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea. Russia has relocated all of their Su-400 long-range missile batteries from there into Ukraine, along with other equipment, men, and supplies. About 6 months ago Russia depleted its forces in eastern Asia, along the border with China and in Kamchatka. Because of that the Chicoms boldly moved troops into Russian territory seizing hundreds of squares miles of fertile farmland and fresh water sources, and Putin (or his thugs, if Putin is dead) have done nothing. NOTHING! Russia has withdrawn all its forces from Armenia and most of them from Georgia, leaving only a police force unit.

Probably the most important of these is the removal of substantial forces from Kaliningrad. Poland and Lithuania which border this region, have both moved troops right up to the border. They watch as the Russians weaken their positions in this important enclave of Russian territory ready to strike when the moment is right. Yes, as of right now, neither Poland nor Lithuania wish to provoke the "big bad bear," as Russia still has the means to retaliate militarily and punish either, or both. But, there are Polish and Lithuanian ethnic peoples living in Kaliningrad who would welcome an incursion, an invasion, I guess one could say.

Senator Graham has said it best. At a cost of 5% of the Pentagon's budget we have depleted the Putinites' military by over 60%. Could be approaching 70% fairly soon. That's a good ROI.

Germany is sending 15 older attack helicopters to Ukraine. The BO-105 copter was developed in the 1960s as an anti-tank weapon. Even with updates this copter will be vulnerable to modern anti-aircraft weapons, like the hand-held rockets of various kinds. Offensively it can be effective as it can take out tanks, especially Russian tanks and other armored vehicles with its air to ground missiles. But! it has to survive long enough to attack enemy tanks. The Ukrans can't afford to look gift-horses in the mouth and have to accept whatever other nations are willing to send to them.

Russia is getting artillery shells from Iran. No numbers reported but guessed to be between 200,000-250,000. And these all work, unlike the antiquated shells North Korea sent to Russia. This is huge and will again tip the balance in favor of the Russians, as the Ukrans, while sporting superior guns, lacks a steady supply of artillery shells from her allies. Latest report says NATO is sending only 10,000 shells per month to Ukraine. The Iranians have also developed and are testing a jet-engine kamikaze drone. None have been deployed, still in testing, but they can cause some real problems as their speed will make them virtually unstoppable. Right now the current drones with their props and small engines can be shot down and many are, but a very speedy drone will be a challenge.

Speaking of drones, the Ukrans have once again introduced an innovative improvement to the whole drone weapons industry, and that is "the Mother Drone." This is a larger drone with video cameras and GPS electronics that actually carries 4 kamikaze drones to deploy on the battlefield. They have field-tested, i.e. attacked the Russians with two of them and both were very successful. Of course, this larger drone is vulnerable to anti-drone weapons so we will have to see how it survives in combat going forward.

The "Foreign Legion" which reportedly includes the 80 or so American mercenaries, plus hundreds of other foreign units, has been deployed to the Bakhmut theater of operation. No more news than that for now.

Winter weather has begun in Ukraine with drenching rains mixed with snow flurries. Has turned the roads into quagmires of impassable mess. One video showed a Humvee bogged down over its grill, completely stuck in the middle of the frickin road! Looks like ground operations for both sides will stop until the spring thaw, but cruise missiles and drones will still be used in earnest.

The Russians are continuing to attack north of Avdiivka realizing some success grabbing ground but paying a heavy price for it. The Ukrans are willing to trade some ground for the enormous losses suffered by the Russians. But, the Russians, as pointed out by a well-versed YouTuber, are striking in any direction where they find minimal resistance, without any rhyme or reason to their advances. It's like, Oh, let's attack this way, and then, okay, let's go that way. All the while the Ukrans are killing scores of Russians with drone and artillery attacks.

The Ukrans have made some gains of their own. East of Horolivka, ground held by pro-Russian separatists militia since 2014, has been liberated by the Ukrans. The advance was less than a mile but does represent a change in "ownership" which represents a morale-boosting accomplishment. ***

In Kherson a stalemate is developing. The Ukrans have built two pontoon bridges across the Dnieper River near Krynky, which has been expected. But the Russians have brought up at least two fresh brigades with tank, artillery, and air support and are digging in in a semi-circle around the bridgehead. The ground is terrible for cross-country movements, especially with heavy equipment, and now that the rains and winter weather is setting in it's becoming impossible for either side to maneuver. It appears that both sides are piling up forces that will be staring at each other across wet bogs during the winter.

***should be noted, which I have failed to do so, that Russia via its allies in Donbas, the pro-Putin militias, has held ground in eastern Ukraine since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. There has been sporadic fighting between those militias and Ukrainian forces for the past 9-10 years.

Still not learning!

Yesterday the stupid Russians gathered the entire officers' corps (of a rocket launcher brigade), there were 60+ officers, and some with their wives, local pro-Putin supporters, like the town's mayor and his family, and other invited guests into a concert hall to be entertained by a Putinite singer, some woman and her band, and most of them are dead this morning. Not many survivors from a Ukran missile strike on the building. The town is about 30 miles from the front lines in Donbas region. An easy target for modern cruise missiles guided by scout drones. The female singer is kind of their Taylor Swift, or she was, she's dead now. There is video of the actual strike, the instant the missile hit the building. The video was being sent out live so the troops of this brigade could watch this entertainer perform. Not a pretty scene... Oh well. Go home and keep your Taylor Swifts in Russia.

War is hell. And Putin is losing this war.

BTW what appeared to be Putin appeared on national Russian TV, being swooned by the dictator of Chechnya. But this "Putin" barely spoke, just kind of nodded and waved his hand. Some observers question if Putin is alive and if this is not just some body-double. Or maybe Putin is alive but confined to a hospital bed in critical condition.

Not much change on the battle front overnight. Both sides made small gains, the Ukrans near Shumy and the Russians are putting pressure on the Ukrans at Andiivka. The latter is a little more serious. The Russians took the woods line east of the railroad berm, leaving the Ukrans in control of the woods west of the berm. Something has to give because they are very close to each other. The "Foreign Legion" has been deployed near here, maybe actually at this point. The 3rd Assault Brigade also operates in this area.

Russians lost another 80-100 soldiers in the fighting around Avdiivka, but if only 80-100 then that was a good night for the Russians.

The Ukrans are so damn innovative! Ya gotta love it!

They have launched their robot attack "dogs" in a field test to see if they are plausible on a modern battlefield. They sent three of the robot dogs to attack a Russian defensive line. Early reports say it was a success as it seemed to scare the crap out of the Russians. The robots are impervious to small arms fire, even surviving direct bursts from Russian heavy machineguns. But, two of them were damaged by anti-tank rockets. No report if those two robots have been recovered or are abandoned in "no man's land" between the lines. The robot dogs walk, like dogs, on four legs. They are armed with a grenade launcher and a machinegun, with cameras, and operated like drones are from a remote location.

The Ukrans have also used this concept in stationary defensive positions. Best example just occurred at a bridge east of Avdiivka. For 6 weeks the Russians have been trying to capture a bridge over a river on the eastern front of the city. They launched human wave attacks only to be completely wiped out by Ukran machineguns contained in bunkers flanking the bridge. The Russians have hit these bunkers with everything they have, short of a nuke, and failed to silence the guns. Over 400 Russians have been killed and another 800+ wounded trying to take this position, which is a very, very small speck on the battlefront at Avdiivka. Well, turns out the two machineguns mowing down the Russians were encased in reinforced concrete bunkers and buried in a hillside overlooking the bridge. There were no soldiers manning the guns as they were operated remotely with cameras allowing the Ukrans to point the machineguns where needed. The only reason the Russians have finally succeeded in taking the bridge is the guns ran out of ammo. There was no way for the Ukrans to safely get to the positions to replenish the bullets, which were contained in large drums, thousands of rounds each.

The world is watching as the Ukrans, out of necessity, or forever changing the way wars will be fought. We're heading toward the days of the Terminators of the Arnold Schwarzenegger movies.

Okay, STILL NOT LEARNING!! In today's modern warfare you CANNOT broadcast where you are gathered, especially not on social media and it doesn't have to be official military sources either. Case in point...

a very proud Russian businessman used his company's trucks to bring supplies to the under-supplied Russian troops in occupied Ukraine. There were cases of bottled water, crates of food, blankets and coats for the pending winter weather, and truckloads of it all. The Russkie businessman shot video LIVE on the spot, a small town in central Crimea, completely occupied by Russian troops. His trucks were parked in a large parking lot of a strip shopping center, there is a gas station and various businesses in the strip mall. He showed the location and bragged about how he was helping the Putinite war effort. Ukran agents operating in Crimea recognized the location and called in the exact coordinates. Well, this proud Russkie got to witness why you don't do dumb things like this. There were dozens of Russian soldiers unloading the trucks, all in the open when Ukran cruise missiles started impacting the spot.

As the Ukran YouTuber sarcastically bellowed, "Thanks Comrade!"

Latest reports from the concert attack says there were 25 killed (including the woman singer) and 100+ wounded in that attack.

"Orban of Hungary is a prick." Yes, that is a direct quote from Dennis Davidoff, one of my favorite YouTubers following the war.

Apparently, Putin is indeed still alive. Experts watching his online participation in the G20 Summit, say it is him. He does appear to be weak, like he is experiencing health issues. Here's a quote from Putin:

"If Russia stops fighting the war will end. If Ukraine stops fighting Ukraine will end."

Well, straight from the azzhole's mouth, the absolute truth. Putin articulating why Ukraine has to keep fighting. They are fighting for their very existence.

Many, if not most, pundits say Putin will simply keep the war going hoping for a crack in NATO's willingness to keep supplying Ukraine. Cracks are starting to appear, such as Orban in Hungary, and Fico in Slovakia and now Gert Wilders in The Netherlands, all calling for a pause in aid to Ukraine. Putin has also said he thinks, he hopes, the West will be distracted by the events in the Middle East.

Breaking news...

massive Russian attack underway at Avdiivka. Reportedly striking the Ukran defenses from three directions at once. Early reports say it is mostly Russian infantry, supported by only a few tanks/APCs. It is dark-thirty there, approaching night time. The Ukrans enjoy a huge advantage in night vision equipment, so not sure what the Russians are hoping to gain with this late in the day attack. We'll see.