Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

Starting a bit early this year to whet my whistle.

https://i.imgur.com/kyDnJSB.png

One of you stock geniuses tell me if we're trending up or down.

We finished 2018 with 1152 points (#49). If you recall, teams regress 25% towards 1000 after each season, leaving us with 1114 points (which is still within last years lower shadow).

	opp	elo	w%
21	Texas	1317	18%
	Grambling		100%
113	Bowling Green (OH)	557	95%
77	Florida International	926	87%
126	Rice (TX)	297	99%
120	Massachusetts	452	99%
79	Southern Mississippi	920	87%
130	Texas-El Paso	220	99%
82	North Texas	898	88%
45	Marshall (WV)	1155	36%
56	Alabama-Birmingham	1067	48%
106	Texas-San Antonio	644	97%

This gives us a projected record of 9.5-2.5.

Adding a sure loss to USM and the scheduled WTF game, we should be looking at a 7.5-5.5 record. And that's not even counting if FIU and UNT turn out to be trouble.

I'll take 7-5...no, check that, 8-5 with our 6th straight bowl win!

Dogsince65 should be proud...I have settled into acceptance of mediocrity, and it doesn't even bother me.

Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.

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Originally Posted by Tech79

Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.

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What does it mean when we're actually experiencing a golden age of Tech football -- at least on the field -- yet our gameday experience has become numbingly dull?

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Originally Posted by Champ967

What does it mean when we're actually experiencing a golden age of Tech football -- at least on the field -- yet our gameday experience has become numbingly dull?

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Looking at the data from all ~79k games that have ever been played the average Elo value has been dropping steadily since 1900. This major trend was reversed twice - in the 30s and then in the 80s, when the "good teams" left the trash in the dust.

Because of the lower quality of the worst teams, it means that teams which play significant numbers of games against the bottom dwellers can experience the veneer of success. Wins against bad teams don't net you as much gain as wins against good teams, but they are still wins, and wins add up.

However, while the chart shows that we are in a local uptrend, the fact remains that barely beating UTEP at home doesn't really sell tickets.

Looking at the candlestick does not inspire confidence. This is not a stock I would buy and I think our gameday "investors" feel the same.

This is good stuff. thanks. And I thought ELO just made good music.

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Originally Posted by Tech79

Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.

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Performance wise, I think LA Tech peaked in 2011 and 2012. IMO, it was certainly our most exciting era of LA Tech football. What I wouldn't give to have Colby Cameron back at QB.

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

Performance wise, I think LA Tech peaked in 2011 and 2012. IMO, it was certainly our most exciting era of LA Tech football. What I wouldn't give to have Colby Cameron back at QB.

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Higgins had a comparable year in 2016:

329/496 (66.3%) 4,617 yards, 41 TDs, 8 Ints

Cameron:

359/522 (68.8%) 4,147 yards, 31 TDs, 5 Ints

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Originally Posted by T1

Higgins had a comparable year in 2016:

329/496 (66.3%) 4,617 yards, 41 TDs, 8 Ints

Cameron:

359/522 (68.8%) 4,147 yards, 31 TDs, 5 Ints

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True. But the picture is bigger than that.

At one point in the 2012 season, LA Tech was 9-1, and nationally ranked, with it's only loss being a 59-57 barn burner in Shreveport, to #22 Texas A&M and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. At that point, LA Tech also had OOC road wins over Houston, Illinois and Virginia. Now THAT was an exciting time for LA Tech football.

Meanwhile, the 2016 LA Tech team you referenced, lost 3 of it's first 4 games, including a 38-34 loss to somebody called "Middle Tennessee". Say what you will, but the 2016 team took the air (and excitement) out of their season pretty quickly.

When was the last time last time LA Tech was 9-1?

True, I thought you meant production.

Question for Blue Dawg. Does that graph indicate our last 4 teams were better than the 2012 team from a ELO point of view? That can't be right.

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Originally Posted by T1

True, I thought you meant production.

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Also, that 2016 LA Tech team lost 5 games, while the 2012 team lost only 3.

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

Also, that 2016 LA Tech team lost 5 games, while the 2012 team lost only 3.

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2012 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 52.
2016 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 57.

They were 2 of the best La Tech offenses ever, but also 2 of the worst La Tech defenses ever. Very similar teams.

The bottom line is that yes we are improving/trending upward from 2007 - 2018! Period!

This is a good trend with some hiccups.

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Originally Posted by T1

True, I thought you meant production.

Question for Blue Dawg. Does that graph indicate our last 4 teams were better than the 2012 team from a ELO point of view? That can't be right.

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Elo is most useful for analyzing trends and momentum. 2012 broke us above the 1000 "mediocre" line. 2014 had some big wins and ended on a high (thankfully for Tech, Elo doesn't count FCS games...), which helped erase the horrible 2013 season.

That's why I like the candlestick chart for Elo. A single season's gain or loss is most significant when compared to where it is in the trend. So 2015-2017 are higher than 2014 because of the success gained by 2014 and 2016. But that momentum is starting to slow down and even drop entirely as it did last year.

As with everything, one metric rarely tells the full story.

Ah, thanks. So Tylertechsas nailed it. Is it fair to say we've been trending up from the point that Jim Oakes retired to today. That does seem realistic. We've invested a lot in the program since then and we are getting the return we wanted in wins.

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Originally Posted by T1

2012 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 52.
2016 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 57.

They were 2 of the best La Tech offenses ever, but also 2 of the worst La Tech defenses ever. Very similar teams.

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Speaking of Sagarin, our best two teams ever, based on final season ratings were 2014 (#34), Power Rating of 77.69, and 1999 (#35), Power Rating of 78.66. Those were impressive finishes under any standard.

And speaking of defenses, another item of interest to me is how many years have we have no losses of 21 points or more (of course, that can vary tremendously, based on your opponents, and how potent of an offense we had) but we have had four of those since 1990. That would be 1990, 2011, 2012, and 2016.

We had quite a few of those back in the 60's and 70's, but our opponents were drastically different. Starting with 1968, those years were 1968,1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975 (all Maxie Lambright), and 1982 (Billy Brewer).

	opp	elo	w%
19	Texas	1423	0%
	Grambling		100%
115	Bowling Green (OH)	424	100%
82	Florida International	891	100%
129	Rice (TX)	117	100%
127	Massachusetts	221	100%
74	Southern Mississippi	957	88%
130	Texas-El Paso	66	100%
95	North Texas	772	96%
57	Marshall (WV)	1073	55%
42	Alabama-Birmingham	1177	40%
111	Texas-San Antonio	485	99%

We are back on top of CUSA. Hopefully we can overcome the laws of nature and keep the wins going this week!

39	Louisiana Tech
42	Alabama-Birmingham
57	Marshall (WV)
62	Western Kentucky
67	Florida Atlantic
74	Southern Mississippi
82	Florida International
88	Middle Tennessee St.
95	North Texas
109	Old Dominion (VA)
111	Texas-San Antonio
118	North Carolina-Charlotte
129	Rice (TX)
130	Texas-El Paso

Our Elo stands at 1207. This is 80% of our historical maximum (1392). We are approximately at last season's high point (1210). However, I have observed over the last few seasons that the Rivalry in Dixie always seems to occur right at these pivotal support/resistance levels. So we will see.

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Originally Posted by Champ967

What does it mean when we're actually experiencing a golden age of Tech football -- at least on the field -- yet our gameday experience has become numbingly dull?

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How does the gameday experience compare with the first "golden age" of Tech football? I think our team was 44-4 in that era. It was fun except for the coats & ties.

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Originally Posted by olddog75

This is good stuff. thanks. And I thought ELO just made good music.

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The music is reversible but time is not - turn back

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

Also, that 2016 LA Tech team lost 5 games, while the 2012 team lost only 3.

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Only bad thing was the team folded when they had the winning hand.

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Originally Posted by stodgdog

Only bad thing was the team folded when they had the winning hand.

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Not the team. The HC and OC folded. They were busy getting the next job lined up.

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Originally Posted by stodgdog

Only bad thing was the team folded when they had the winning hand.

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You've got to know when to hold 'em, fold 'em, walk away, and run.