Covid - 19 - Louisiana Edition

I thought having a thread related to the corona-virus (Covid-19) in Louisiana might be useful. While I'm interested in what's going on in the USA and worldwide, I'm particularly interested in what's going on in my own back yard (so to speak). Also being stuck at home I'm going stir crazy.

Here's the site (http://ldh.la.gov/coronavirus/) I typically look at for information on the cases in Louisiana. Gives a good break down by parishes. If you have another you prefer please provide.

Why are we so hard hit in New Orleans? I don't think it would be a big jump to say Mardi Gras and population density.

As I was typing I googled to see whether I could find anything. Seems the Governor thinks so also, https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...way-story.html.


New Orleans, LA has a population of 382,922 and is the 51st largest city in the United States. The population density is 2,260 per sq mi which is 1993% higher than the Louisiana average and 2395% higher than the national average.

Any other thoughts?

I think it is a cultural issue as well. New Orleans is very socially oriented. Bars, parties, socializing in general are big parts of life. If locals got it as far back as Mardis Gras they had plenty of time to socialize and spread it around. Even stay at home orders won't stop most people from visiting with neighbors and checking on elderly friends/family and potentially spreading it to the very people they are trying to protect. I think people are getting the picture now that just because you don't have symptoms doesn't mean you don't have it, but early on that was probably lost on most.

Louisiana’s have a defiant streak.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Louisiana’s have a defiant streak.

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Eff you, no we don't!!!

Crazy and uncooperative. Not a good combo for slowing a pandemic.

More cases, more deaths, 53 of 64 parishes with at least one infection. But the good news is that positive test rate is down to 12.7%. We're getting more in line with the national average.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Crazy and uncooperative. Not a good combo for slowing a pandemic.

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The liberals and radical commie leftist "Squad" on the national scale? Yes we know.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

More cases, more deaths, 53 of 64 parishes with at least one infection. But the good news is that positive test rate is down to 12.7%. We're getting more in line with the national average.

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The more you test the lower all pertinent rates will fall especially the mortality rate.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

The more you test the lower all pertinent rates will fall especially the mortality rate.

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Yes, up to now, and still even now tests are being given to those who have the highest possibility of being infected. It was, and still is, a targeted sample. As tests become widespread and random the rates will drop tremendously. So, the positive rate dropping from a high of 24% down to 12% is no surprise.

I bet you could go across the state and randomly selected 100 people and test them. Chances are VERY good you'd have a 0% infection rate. But, that would skew reality the other way. C-19 is out there and it is spreading. There is no 0% presence of the virus in the state (and of course we know that!). Latest numbers in the state there have been about 18,000 people tested. That is only .45% of the population ( < 1).

I can tell you with absolute certainty that website tracking Louisiana's C-19 scoreboard is not 100% accurate and/or up to date.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

I can tell you with absolute certainty that website tracking Louisiana's C-19 scoreboard is not 100% accurate and/or up to date.

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No, you have to be kidding! It’s posted on local news stations and has been verified as accurate!

I predict ventilators will be like travel trailers after Katrina. Unfortunately, the buying pool for ventilators is a lot smaller.

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Originally Posted by eagle2180

No, you have to be kidding! It’s posted on local news stations and has been verified as accurate!

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No, it's not, or maybe it just hasn't been updated. I know for a fact about several cases not included in the numbers, in certain parishes.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

No, it's not, or maybe it just hasn't been updated. I know for a fact about several cases not included in the numbers, in certain parishes.

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Have you checked the infection2020.com site? It pulls data from multiple sources.

Never saw this coming:

The mayor of coronavirus-plagued New Orleans took a shot at Trump, saying the city would have canceled Mardi Gras if the federal government had taken the outbreak seriously

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-orleans-mardi-gras-mayor-slams-trump-response-2020-3

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Never saw this coming:

The mayor of coronavirus-plagued New Orleans took a shot at Trump, saying the city would have canceled Mardi Gras if the federal government had taken the outbreak seriously


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-orleans-mardi-gras-mayor-slams-trump-response-2020-3

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LOL! of course.

And I assume your "never saw this coming" remark is offered TIC.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

LOL! of course.

And I assume your "never saw this coming" remark is offered TIC.

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Of course. The only way she could have delivered it better was if she could have teared up.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Have you checked the infection2020.com site? It pulls data from multiple sources.

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On this site they show 14 cases in Louisiana as "unassigned" to a specific parish. I assume the cases I know of, and not shown on the other site, are included in that 14 number.

I also know of an infected person, originally assigned to a parish now showing 0 cases, went to Texas to stay with his/her daughter. The person in question is elderly and needs daily care, even before the C-19 showed up.

Haven't posted today's update yet...but as of yesterday the positive test rate was holding steady, now at 12.8%.

56 of 64 parishes now...and positive test rate has climbed to 13.2%.

Death rate in the state is 4.1%. That is deaths measured against confirmed cases. Probably not the best metrics to use as they are/will be many infected who will neither be tested nor die.

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Never saw this coming:

The mayor of coronavirus-plagued New Orleans took a shot at Trump, saying the city would have canceled Mardi Gras if the federal government had taken the outbreak seriously


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-orleans-mardi-gras-mayor-slams-trump-response-2020-3

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I can't even imagine what the uproar would have been if they had cancelled Mardi Gras! This was so predictable though. They are all talking out of both sides of their mouth- mad when he does anything to curtail spread, and mad if he doesn't. Interesting times for sure!

Silly Louisiana and Mardi Gras. It might have bit you big time this year.

Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero

:D

Luke 12:19;

19 And I will say to my soul, “Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years; relax, drink, be merry.”

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1 Corinthians 15:32

32 What do I gain if, humanly speaking, ^wI fought with beasts at Ephesus?
If the dead are not raised,^x“Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.”

Heard a rumor that people are being stopped crossing state lines to get to work at places deemed essential like oil and gas and healthcare. Any truth to this?

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Never saw this coming:The mayor of coronavirus-plagued New Orleans took a shot at Trump, saying the city would have canceled Mardi Gras if the federal government had taken the outbreak seriously

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...esponse-2020-3

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I am not a fan of LaToya Cantrell. But in fairness her aim really wan't Trump. It was more so the CDC and the information it was given and/or not given through the New Orleans Health Department. That's been clear in her public statements since.

This was one soundbite in a longer interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN where he really went after her - unfairly. Of course, the soundbite was taken out of context. In a way, she has been hit with the same sensationalized journalism that Trump deals with every day. For many in the media in Louisiana that type of sensationalism was a surprise, especially at a time like this. They got to see the CNN/MSNBC non-sense up close.

Here is The Advocate's news story on the issue:

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...68e7c6476.html

From Clancy Dubos of Gambit:

https://www.nola.com/gambit/news/cla...c411cb7b5.html


From Stephanie Grace of The Advocate:

https://www.nola.com/opinions/stephanie_grace/article_7e8f700c-704b-11ea-b81c-1b51acce90ce.html

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Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS

Silly Louisiana and Mardi Gras. It might have bit you big time this year.

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And a good time was apparently had by all, including many young people from east Texas. You know - the spreaders who aren't showing symptoms but who are now beginning to infect the older population. The same holds true for Spring Breakers on South Padre Island, who were on the beach a full three weeks after Mardi Gras. Silly Texas. :laugh:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-warnings

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Originally Posted by The Historian

And a good time was apparently had by all, including many young people from east Texas. You know - the spreaders who aren't showing symptoms but who are now beginning to infect the older population. The same holds true for Spring Breakers on South Padre Island, who were on the beach a full three weeks after Mardi Gras. Silly Texas. :laugh:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-warnings

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I totally agree. Read the Snowflake thread starting about 2 weeks ago or so.

:icon_roll: Oh brother!!! These Dem. Governors and Mayors are always wanting to blame the Fed and Trump for things they could have done themselves. No wonder their voting base always does the same. No personal responsibility. Amazing!

…LA GUV BLAMES FEDS FOR NOT CANCELING MARDI GRAS…

PAM KEY

The site finally caught up and shows the cases in Red River and Sabine parishes...old news. Which makes me question the overall numbers. I knew about those...but what about other parishes?

Positive testing rate down to 12.7% And in 59 of 64 parishes now.

Article on the 17 year old who died 'with' the coronavirus.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...730a5ec7c.html


This is an interesting sentence. "Louisiana officials’ practice is to include anyone who tested positive for COVID-19 and died in their tally of deaths related to the coronavirus."

So, C-19 did not kill this kid. But his death is included in those deaths' numbers. Saw a doctor in Italy interviewed, he said no one knows how lethal C-19 really is because ALL deaths when the patient had the virus are automatically linked to it. People who have died had the virus, but it was NOT the virus that killed them. Early returns (sounds like an election) have been showing about 7X recoveries vs. deaths. For every 100 people who actually die from this virus, about 700 have had it and beat it. Only that rate is probably greater given there has been no effort to separate the deaths by actual cause of death.

Okay, this is good news, maybe C-19 is not quite as lethal as previously feared. But, that said, this is not a reason to become complacent. Until we truly know more about it, assume the worst.

Technically, I don’t think it is the virus itself that is killing so many people, but the body’s immune response to it and secondary bacterial infections you might acquire while your immune system is fighting the virus. How do you define deaths you are going to blame on COVID 19 and those that you don’t when a patient has COVID 19.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Technically, I don’t think it is the virus itself that is killing so many people, but the body’s immune response to it and secondary bacterial infections you might acquire while your immune system is fighting the virus. How do you define deaths you are going to blame on COVID 19 and those that you don’t when a patient has COVID 19.

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My understanding is also that it's the immune system's reaction to the virus not the virus itself that is the culprit (though we're probably arguing tomatoe, tomato). I've seen a couple of other cases where family members have indicated it wasn't the virus. However, the situation with this one is they were touting it as someone very young who died from it. If you look at http://ldh.la.gov/coronavirus/ they've removed it from the age group chart but not the overall total (as far as I know).

I'm certain there are cases both ones. Some being reported as a death due to the virus just because they tested positive and then some (at least early on) where they weren't tested but may have had the virus.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Technically, I don’t think it is the virus itself that is killing so many people, but the body’s immune response to it and secondary bacterial infections you might acquire while your immune system is fighting the virus. How do you define deaths you are going to blame on COVID 19 and those that you don’t when a patient has COVID 19.

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Perhaps. But, ultimately, and that will have to wait until the crisis has passed, medical science needs to find answers to those questions.

This is not exactly the same thing but, I lost my dad to a massive heart attack. The autopsy revealed he was also eaten up with cancer. So cancer would have taken him down eventually, had the heart failure not happened. Technically the cancer did not kill him. The doctor told us he probably would have lived several more years with the cancer, and possibly 10 years with treatment. Did the cancer cause strain on his heart, we asked. Nope! apparently they were totally unrelated conditions.

Right now it is expedient to connect all deaths to C-19. Using "scare" tactics helps to convince some hard-headed folks to take this more seriously. Eventually medical science needs to get this right. There will be political pressure to inflate the numbers as much as possible...and we all know why. But the scientists need to stay rooted in the facts to produce vaccines and other measures as we await the next version of a pandemic.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

The site finally caught up and shows the cases in Red River and Sabine parishes...old news. Which makes me question the overall numbers. I knew about those...but what about other parishes?

Positive testing rate down to 12.7% And in 59 of 64 parishes now.

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D80 - I think there is a lag time on the site somewhere in the neighborhood of two to four days...

Rhythmdawg could give a better guess

I know what each facility has to report to ldh every morning on their results received from the labs during the prior 24 hour period -

Some clinics and centers are getting results in 24 to 36 hours - some are in a lab of as much as 6 to 8 days

I have a brother who works for Quest and he says they are close to their targeted goal of 24 hour turn around in their Monroe lab - he says by the end of next week, that could be cut down to 45 minutes if they get what they are promised

As most on here know my wife is an NP who works in the rural setting at Reeves in Bernice - depending on the severity of the patient they get some tests back in 24 to 36 hours - the less severe patients its taking upwards of 3 to 4 days -

At the local hospital here in HOmer - they are on a 8 to 10 day lag with their lag partner (which in my book is inexcusable)

Interesting development in New Orleans due to stay at home order.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...streets-empty/

People usually don't die from cancer, they die from pneumonia and sepsis. Did cancer kill them?

Interesting discussion...

The underlying conditions sometimes exist before the virus, like being diabetic, HPB, or obese.

Sometimes the virus finds the underlying conditions like the guy who had the heart attack, but he may or may not have known he had heart issues.

Our health is always so important, but at a time like this it is literally life and death.

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

My understanding is also that it's the immune system's reaction to the virus not the virus itself that is the culprit (though we're probably arguing tomatoe, tomato). I've seen a couple of other cases where family members have indicated it wasn't the virus. However, the situation with this one is they were touting it as someone very young who died from it. If you look at http://ldh.la.gov/coronavirus/ they've removed it from the age group chart but not the overall total (as far as I know).

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In Post 32 I had stated the above. However, they are still counting the death of the 17 year old in the totals. If you look at the age group bar graph it now has 1 listed for <18, they weren't doing this before and no bar was previously showing.

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Interesting development in New Orleans due to stay at home order.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...streets-empty/

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You should see the size of rats in downtown Houston at night poking and sneaking out of their sewers. Both cities have been bad for decades. I can't imagine how bad the old big cities are on the east and west coast; much-less somewhat middle of the country Chicago and Detroit.

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Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS

You should see the size of rats in downtown Houston at night poking and sneaking out of their sewers. Both cities have been bad for decades. I can't imagine how bad the old big cities are on the east and west coast; much-less somewhat middle of the country Chicago and Detroit.

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Philadelphia rats are about the size of a pekingese.

New York City's are regular size, though they don't care about anything. They own the streets.

Boston's are about regular size, too. I've mostly seen them (only at night and late into it) around Fenway, Back Bay, and the Common.

Weirdly enough, have yet to see a rat in any of my wandering of Washington, DC.

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Originally Posted by JuBru

Philadelphia rats are about the size of a pekingese.

New York City's are regular size, though they don't care about anything. They own the streets.

Boston's are about regular size, too. I've mostly seen them (only at night and late into it) around Fenway, Back Bay, and the Common.

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Yes indeed as I've been to these cities and out at night as well.

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Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden

D80 - I think there is a lag time on the site somewhere in the neighborhood of two to four days...

Rhythmdawg could give a better guess

I know what each facility has to report to ldh every morning on their results received from the labs during the prior 24 hour period -

Some clinics and centers are getting results in 24 to 36 hours - some are in a lab of as much as 6 to 8 days

I have a brother who works for Quest and he says they are close to their targeted goal of 24 hour turn around in their Monroe lab - he says by the end of next week, that could be cut down to 45 minutes if they get what they are promised

As most on here know my wife is an NP who works in the rural setting at Reeves in Bernice - depending on the severity of the patient they get some tests back in 24 to 36 hours - the less severe patients its taking upwards of 3 to 4 days -

At the local hospital here in HOmer - they are on a 8 to 10 day lag with their lag partner (which in my book is inexcusable)

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As an eternal optimist, I believe we will be far better off as a result of this crisis. Vaccines, serums, tests, PPEs in abundance, procedures, all will be in place prior to the next pandemic. Just have to get there first.

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Originally Posted by JuBru

Weirdly enough, have yet to see a rat in any of my wandering of Washington, DC.

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Congress must be in session then

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

Congress must be in session then

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Good one! You get the Post of the Day award.

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Originally Posted by MoonPieBlue

Interesting development in New Orleans due to stay at home order.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...streets-empty/

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Great opportunity to deploy night hunters with air guns to whittle down that breeding base!

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

Congress must be in session then

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:laugh:So true.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

Great opportunity to deploy night hunters with air guns to whittle down that breeding base!

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Used to bullseye Womp Rats back on Tatooine...took more than an air rifle to kill them suckers.

Back here on Earth we used to kill "railroad rats," sometimes called "German rats," they were 2/3 the size of a possum. Killed with a Crossman .17 pellet rifle.

In other news, still in 60 of 64 parishes but other totals are up, including the positive test rate which hit 14%.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

In other news, still in 60 of 64 parishes but other totals are up, including the positive test rate which hit 14%.

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REMEMBER: the positive test rate is biased upward because the symptomatic are being tested.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

REMEMBER: the positive test rate is biased upward because the symptomatic are being tested.

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Same is true with the flu.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Same is true with the flu.

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Untrue...flu numbers are based on modelling and estimates. We aren't estimating the COVID numbers...they are the raw numbers.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

REMEMBER: the positive test rate is biased upward because the symptomatic are being tested.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

Untrue...flu numbers are based on modelling and estimates. We aren't estimating the COVID numbers...they are the raw numbers.

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In this case we are talking about the testing numbers though right. 14% of the people tested are testing positive. I'm not sure how that compares to the flu, but I'm not sure what point is being made here. Yes the flu numbers are not based solely on positive tests. They are based on estimates which are roughly double the number of positive tests.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

Untrue...flu numbers are based on modelling and estimates. We aren't estimating the COVID numbers...they are the raw numbers.

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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

“Laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates are obtained from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET), a collaboration between CDC, the Emerging Infections Program Network, and selected state and local health departments in 13 geographically distributed areas in the United States that conduct population-based surveillance. The network includes hospitals that serve roughly 9% of the U.S. population. The reported numbers of hospitalizations are used to calculate hospitalization rates and the rates are adjusted to correct for under-detection of influenza. This adjustment is done by using the percent of persons hospitalized with respiratory illness who were tested for influenza and the average sensitivity of influenza tests used in the participating FluSurv-NET hospitals.”

The “underdetection” of the model accounts for the sensitivity of the test. It doesn’t say they try to account for those that are asymptomatic. If you don’t have symptoms, what are you doing getting tested?

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

“Laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates are obtained from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET), a collaboration between CDC, the Emerging Infections Program Network, and selected state and local health departments in 13 geographically distributed areas in the United States that conduct population-based surveillance. The network includes hospitals that serve roughly 9% of the U.S. population. The reported numbers of hospitalizations are used to calculate hospitalization rates and the rates are adjusted to correct for under-detection of influenza. This adjustment is done by using the percent of persons hospitalized with respiratory illness who were tested for influenza and the average sensitivity of influenza tests used in the participating FluSurv-NET hospitals.”

The “underdetection” of the model accounts for the sensitivity of the test. It doesn’t say they try to account for those that are asymptomatic. If you don’t have symptoms, what are you doing getting tested?

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This is not entirely correct or at least not a correct response to Carteks statement. The hospitalization rates are adjusted based on the sensitivity of the test and the total number of cases are estimated based on the number of hospitalizations. You are correct in stating the flu numbers do not include asymptomatic cases ( I was wrong about this). They are only estimating symptomatic cases, but they are estimating far more than actually test positive. I would say your snippit actually hurts your point. Cartek is correct that they are based on estimates while the Covid numbers are not.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

REMEMBER: the positive test rate is biased upward because the symptomatic are being tested.

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Yep, I think the results are skewed because 1) people who are showing symptoms and/or know they have been exposed are being tested, and 2) most of the tests are being conducted in the heaviest hit regions of the state. But, I believe this has been the case from the beginning so it should be pretty much apples to apples...only, now with the quick test being offered in those drive-throughs, more "average" people are seeking the test. As more of those results come in, we should see the positive test rate trend downward. Let's hope it does....

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Originally Posted by detltu

This is not entirely correct or at least not a correct response to Carteks statement. The hospitalization rates are adjusted based on the sensitivity of the test and the total number of cases are estimated based on the number of hospitalizations. You are correct in stating the flu numbers do not include asymptomatic cases ( I was wrong about this). They are only estimating symptomatic cases, but they are estimating far more than actually test positive. I would say your snippit actually hurts your point. Cartek is correct that they are based on estimates while the Covid numbers are not.

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I don’t disagree that they are based on estimates, but it is an extrapolation based on a data set that is directly tied to testing in a subset, and that subset of testing isn’t accounting for people that aren’t symptomatic.

While COVID is only based on test results (though we can use models ton predict how bad it will get), it actually includes some that are asymptomatic - people that were exposed to known COVID patients even if they themselves never were symptomatic.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

I don’t disagree that they are based on estimates, but it is an extrapolation based on a data set that is directly tied to testing in a subset, and that subset of testing isn’t accounting for people that aren’t symptomatic.

While COVID is only based on test results (though we can use models ton predict how bad it will get), it actually includes some that are asymptomatic - people that were exposed to known COVID patients even if they themselves never were symptomatic.

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You routinely undermine your credibility because you are unable to admit even the slightest error in your thought.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

You routinely undermine your credibility because you are unable to admit even the slightest error in your thought.

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I love admitting my errors. What was it?

Covid numbers are a biased sample. They are restricting the testing to only those that check all the boxes. Only those that the stats say are likely to die from it. The numbers are mostly junk due to multiple issues. The models based on a biased sample are junk as well....My kid studied the scientific method in school this year... he is a fifth grader. Scientific experiments are based on all things being equal (control the variables, except for the one you are studying). Real life isn’t a laboratory.

Only number that isn’t biased are deaths, except for China number.

In Louisiana, we have had 273 deaths in 19 days. Is that good, bad , normal , what is the control group? How many would have died from other causes if not infected with Covid?

How many of the outliers have died because a doc sent them home with undetected viral pneumonia?

Do the models take into account the good Dr’s vs. the bad ones?

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Originally Posted by tech70

Only number that isn’t biased are deaths, except for China number.

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You can probably add a zero to any number they publish, cases or deaths, and be closer to the real number. Still probably well short of the real number.

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Originally Posted by techman05

You can probably add a zero to any number they publish, cases or deaths, and be closer to the real number. Still probably well short of the real number.

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What factor should we apply to the US numbers? Deaths are the only real stat, and even those numbers could be questioned...and have been in Louisiana!

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Originally Posted by tech70

Only number that isn’t biased are deaths, except for China number.

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Yep! there have been 43,000 deaths in Wuhan City alone, and many more thousands throughout Hubei Province.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Yep! there have been 43,000 deaths in Wuhan City alone, and many more thousands throughout Wuhan Province.

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Hubei Province.

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Originally Posted by Guisslapp

Hubei Province.

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Right, meant to post throughout the province Wuhan is in.

Have a friend, a professor at NSU, who is from Hubei Province, a town close to Wuhan. I helped her, and her husband, buy a house here in Natchitoches. She visited her family over the Christmas break...yes, she was there. Returned just after January 1, first week of the month. She used to be able to communicate with her family via Skype or some such Internet connection, but now that has been cut off. She did get a phone call through recently and says her family is doing okay. Her family operates a small retail store in their town.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Right, meant to post throughout the province Wuhan is in.

Have a friend, a professor at NSU, who is from Hubei Province, a town close to Wuhan. I helped her, and her husband, buy a house here in Natchitoches. She visited her family over the Christmas break...yes, she was there. Returned just after January 1, first week of the month. She used to be able to communicate with her family via Skype or some such Internet connection, but now that has been cut off. She did get a phone call through recently and says her family is doing okay. Her family operates a small retail store in their town.

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I have a colleague whose family lives in a small poor village in Hubei province. Their village was barricaded off for 6 weeks.

Not good...positive test rate has surged to 18%. Now 310 deaths and 61 of 64 parishes with a confirmed case.

I would expect positive test rate to go up until we start testing everyone , when you have to meet the criteria to be tested the rate should be high or you don’t have the criteria right. I would focus on death to see how we are doing. I don’t know when we started using the malaria drug cocktail so we cant see it’s effect in death rate but maybe in released patient numbers?

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Not good...positive test rate has surged to 18%. Now 310 deaths and 61 of 64 parishes with a confirmed case.

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Yes positive test cases have increased but not the amount of individuals having to be hospitalized.

Yesterday number of cases increased by 1,187 from that on 3/31 and number of people in hospital increased by 143 (people on ventilators increased by 52). Difference between today and yesterday are 2,726 new cases with increase in hospital similar to yesterday 141 and ventilators increase only 17. I know all this is not really scientific as we don't know if everything is consistently updated or some may be more delayed. Also hospital and ventilator numbers could be effected by discharges or deaths. Will need to see if this continues. I'm just trying to look for anything positive.

You guys see this one about 3 hours ago.

From the Reuters an hour ago:

Why is New Orleans' coronavirus death rate 7 times New York's? Obesity is a factor

by Reuters
Thursday, 2 April 2020 10:00 GMT

By Brad Brooks

April 2 (Reuters) - The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy's high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.
"We're just sicker," said Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University's healthcare services division. "We already had tremendous healthcare disparities before this pandemic – one can only imagine they are being amplified now."

Along with New York and Seattle, New Orleans has emerged as one of the early U.S. hotspots for the coronavirus, making it a national test case for how to control and treat the disease. Chief among the concerns raised by doctors working in the Louisiana city is the death rate, which is seven times that of New York and ten times that of Seattle, based on publicly reported data.

New Orleans residents suffer from obesity, diabetes and hypertension at rates higher than the national average, conditions that doctors and public health officials say can make patients more vulnerable to COVID-19, the highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
Some 97% of those killed by COVID-19 in Louisiana had a preexisting condition, according to the state health department. Diabetes was seen in 40% of the deaths, obesity in 25%, chronic kidney disease in 23% and cardiac problems in 21%.

New Orleans, which so far has reported more than 270 coronavirus deaths, could be a harbinger for the potential toll the pandemic could take in other parts of the South and Midwest that also have high rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension.
A host of other factors could contribute to New Orleans' high death rate for coronavirus, ranging from access to healthcare and hospital quality, to the prevalence of other conditions including lung disease, health officials say.

But they also add that it is clear that obesity-related conditions are playing a role in the deaths. That could be a warning sign for the United States at large, where chronic obesity is more common than in other developed countries, they said.

Hospitals are reporting cases across the generations -mothers and daughters, fathers and sons - being intubated and cared for in the same intensive care units (ICUs), said Tracey Moffatt, the chief nursing officer at Ochsner Health, the largest healthcare provider in Louisiana. The prevalence of obesity, diabetes, hypertension and heart disease in New Orleans and Louisiana plays into that, she said.
Those family members often suffered from the same medical conditions before becoming sick, leaving them similarly vulnerable to the coronavirus despite their age gaps.
"We had a case where a mom was already in the ICU and the daughter, who was obese, came in," she said. "The daughter asked staff to wheel her by her mom's room so she could say goodbye before she herself was intubated. We knew the mother was going to pass away."

Both patients suffered from obesity.
'MORE VULNERABLE'

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released for the first time this week a report showing that 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition, including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.

The CDC report was based on a sample of under 6% of reported coronavirus infections, but doctors in Louisiana said it was consistent with what they are seeing, and it is in line with what other countries like Italy and China have faced.

Those percentages, said Dr. Joseph Kanter, an emergency department doctor and the top public health official in New Orleans, are likely similar in cities across the United States.
"What we worry about here is that we have more people in our communities with those conditions," he said. "We're more vulnerable than other communities, and the number of deaths we've seen illustrates that."

The New Orleans metropolitan statistical area ranks among the worst in the United States for the percentage of residents with diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity, a Reuters analysis of CDC data shows. An estimated 39% have high blood pressure, 36% are obese and about 15% have diabetes.
Nationally, the median is 32% with high blood pressure, 31% obese and 11% with diabetes.
"The burden of disease in Louisiana and the Deep South is higher than in rest of the country," said Gee. "Invariably that means that the South is going to be hard hit by this." (Reporting by Brad Brooks in Austin, Texas, additional reporting by Ryan McNeill in London; Editing by Scott Malone and Rosalba O'Brien)

https://news.trust.org/item/20200402092110-6rvk1

BMI and diabetes are "magnets" for the virus!

Natch Parish Sheriff issues warning of a 24 hr/day curfew if folks don't start following the governor's self-quarantine order. The DA said first offenders will be charged a $1,000 fine and spend some time in the parish jail. Yeah, that'll help keep folks apart.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Natch Parish Sheriff issues warning of a 24 hr/day curfew if folks don't start following the governor's self-quarantine order. The DA said first offenders will be charged a $1,000 fine and spend some time in the parish jail. Yeah, that'll help keep folks apart.

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Sounds brilliant. So just stay home and starve to death or go to jail. Must be a democrat.

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

Sounds brilliant. So just stay home and starve to death or go to jail. Must be a democrat.

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They're all Dems in control in Natchitoches... Oh, they say there'll be some exceptions allowed, such as going to the store, but only one person per household allowed out at a time. And no kids. They couldn't answer other questions like what about people going to work...who have to, like nurses. Just some vague, yeah, of course there'll be exceptions. Okay...what? And how will this be "policed?"

I think they think just issuing this dire warning will be enough to improve matters in the city and parish.

Oh, almost forgot...the proclamation caused another panic and all stores in town were overrun!

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Oh, almost forgot...the proclamation caused another panic and all stores in town were overrun!

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Exactly what Democrats do when they get in a bind. They loot, pillage, and buy toilet paper.

We know the real reason that he issued the nazi like order was to keep his own voters at home, not the citizens with a brain.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Natch Parish Sheriff issues warning of a 24 hr/day curfew if folks don't start following the governor's self-quarantine order. The DA said first offenders will be charged a $1,000 fine and spend some time in the parish jail. Yeah, that'll help keep folks apart.

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Very constitutional!

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

BMI and diabetes are "magnets" for the virus!

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My fat arse had better go on a quick diet.

Wonder where all those patients went that Governor Cuomo and the California Governor have been touting per need for these ships?
Heck, send them to New Orleans!

Did you hear tonight that our The USNS Comfort Navy hospital ship has only received 20 patients from the city's hospitals?
And the new hospital set up in NYC's Central Park has only 12 I think I heard.
Likewise the U.S.N.S. Mercy, docked in LA, has a total of 15 patients.

Know someone with the virus. Lives in DeSoto Parish, 38 yr old, is in serious condition in the hospital, has developed pneumonia. He's a big fellow, played football in HS and briefly in college, was an OL. He's a little overweight, but still in pretty good shape. Owns an oil field service business, was often in Texas on business. There are over 40 cases in DeSoto.

Marshall Faulk's high school coach, Wayne Reese, SR., died yesterday from covid-19.

Also Tom Dempsey's family called in hospice for Tom who has tested positive. He has also has dementia and is in a nursing home, so his family has been unable to visit. At least that is my understading of his current situation.

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Originally Posted by CARTEK

BMI and diabetes are "magnets" for the virus!

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We have a family friend who is a physician in Metairie. We spoke to him last night. There are currently 88 Covid patients at East Jefferson Medical Center (as of 4/2).

One interesting thing about what they're seeing at EJ. The 40 to 65 year old men they are seeing who have either mild type 2 diabetes or are pre diabetic are not those that are treating it with diet and exercise. They are those who are on meds.

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Originally Posted by Bulldog Tom

Marshall Faulk's high school coach, Wayne Reese, SR., died yesterday from covid-19.

Also Tom Dempsey's family called in hospice for Tom who has tested positive. He has also has dementia and is in a nursing home, so his family has been unable to visit. At least that is my understading of his current situation.

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Tom Dempsey is in the memory care unit at Lambeth House, where there have been so many deaths.

Prayers to Tom Dempsey, and all those fighting this dread virus. I was there when Dempsey made his kick, November 8, 1970. Old Tulane Stadium was rocking! Never mind that along with a win over the NY Giants, that was the Saints' only win that year, finished 2-12. Typical of the Saints, there were 80,000 there that day...although that number has grown to about a half a million with the claims of being there!

I saw Dr Oz confirm this morning that blood type A reaction to the virus is much worse than blood type 0.

I saw where Jamie Mayo had Firehouse Subs provide a meal for city employees. That was nice. They even made sure that no one was more than 6 feet apart and a picture I saw only had about 30 people in it. Brilliant!

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Prayers to Tom Dempsey, and all those fighting this dread virus. I was there when Dempsey made his kick, November 8, 1970. Old Tulane Stadium was rocking! Never mind that along with a win over the NY Giants, that was the Saints' only win that year, finished 2-12. Typical of the Saints, there were 80,000 there that day...although that number has grown to about a half a million with the claims of being there!

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I think everyone alive in the region in 1970 was at that game. I was only 2 and living in Ohio at the time, but for some reason my dad took me to the game, so I was in that 500k+. :laugh:

That was an amazing kick though. TD's story was/is great. Hope he makes it through this. His family was visiting him everyday before this situation arose.

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Originally Posted by techman05

I saw where Jamie Mayo had Firehouse Subs provide a meal for city employees. That was nice. They even made sure that no one was more than 6 feet apart and a picture I saw only had about 30 people in it. Brilliant!

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Do you want to reword this, or are you saying they were trying to cause people to spread the virus? :shocked2:

Latest as of today, April 3...

10,297 cases, 370 deaths, still 61 of 64 parishes with a case, positive test rate climbed to 19%. In theory, with an "open to anyone who wants it" testing, this rate should be trending down. It ain't. The 50-59 and the 40-49 age groups have the most cases, but the 70+ group has the most deaths, by far. 54% of the cases are women, which bucks the national trend, 40% men, and apparently 6% who don't know what they are.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Do you want to reword this, or are you saying they were trying to cause people to spread the virus? :shocked2:

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Mayo's is running for Mayor right now, the classy guy that he is. His photo op turned into a PR nightmare. He offered a public apology for it yesterday.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Latest as of today, April 3...

10,297 cases, 370 deaths, still 61 of 64 parishes with a case, positive test rate climbed to 19%. In theory, with an "open to anyone who wants it" testing, this rate should be trending down. It ain't.

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Why do you say "open to anyone who wants it"? I've been hearing just he opposite. DO NOT take tests unless you have symptoms. Fever is not a symptom that should generate a test. Based on this (what I thought was happening) it should be trending up since we still are getting confirmations of the virus with the tests at this point. Even those who have been exposed are not given the tests until they get past the incubation period and have signs of the virus.

If possible, I'm waiting on something other than the swab to the brain test. I've heard it was HORRIBLE.

I wonder how many will die because we will not test exposed people until they are very sick and the virus has already got a firm footing and doing damage to the organs it attacks

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Originally Posted by tech70

I wonder how many will die because we will not test exposed people until they are very sick and the virus has already got a firm footing and doing damage to the organs it attacks

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I've not heard that as a concern.

They are protecting testing and testing supplies imho. I just think that it’s bad to wait that long. The incubation period can be so long that may drive this. But I think that after a known exposure any one who is at high risk should be tested . Just my thoughts and I am not a medical expert. Just that if some of these treatments do work it would seem that starting sooner in a treatment would give a better outcome.
This should get some experts to comment.

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Originally Posted by Bulldog Tom

I think everyone alive in the region in 1970 was at that game. I was only 2 and living in Ohio at the time, but for some reason my dad took me to the game, so I was in that 500k+. :laugh:

That was an amazing kick though. TD's story was/is great. Hope he makes it through this. His family was visiting him everyday before this situation arose.

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I wasn't even born yet, but I was there. Remember it like it was yesterday.

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Originally Posted by tech70

They are protecting testing and testing supplies imho. I just think that it’s bad to wait that long. The incubation period can be so long that may drive this. But I think that after a known exposure any one who is at high risk should be tested . Just my thoughts and I am not a medical expert. Just that if some of these treatments do work it would seem that starting sooner in a treatment would give a better outcome.
This should get some experts to comment.

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I understand. One of my relatives was exposed. They asked her to self quarantine and said that unless she began showing symptoms she would not be tested. I didn't word my post well, but I assume if an exposed person gets sick (showing symptoms) they will test to confirm and treat accordingly.

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

Mayo's is running for Mayor right now, the classy guy that he is. His photo op turned into a PR nightmare. He offered a public apology for it yesterday.



Why do you say "open to anyone who wants it"? I've been hearing just he opposite. DO NOT take tests unless you have symptoms. Fever is not a symptom that should generate a test. Based on this (what I thought was happening) it should be trending up since we still are getting confirmations of the virus with the tests at this point. Even those who have been exposed are not given the tests until they get past the incubation period and have signs of the virus.

If possible, I'm waiting on something other than the swab to the brain test. I've heard it was HORRIBLE.

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I haven't been to any of the drive-thru testing locations, and don't plan to go either, but it's based on self-diagnosis. Because the test is simple, quick, and I guess relatively inexpensive, they are not doing much in the way of triage. If you are paranoid, think you might be infected, just drive on up. That's what one medical staffer told me last night. They were figuring on doing some type of pre-screening, other than, "Do you have fever or feel icky?" Even if the medical staffer thinks, this person is not infected, they are not making them get out of line and go home. But, I have not witnessed this for myself.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

I haven't been to any of the drive-thru testing locations, and don't plan to go either, but it's based on self-diagnosis. Because the test is simple, quick, and I guess relatively inexpensive, they are not doing much in the way of triage. If you are paranoid, think you might be infected, just drive on up. That's what one medical staffer told me last night. They were figuring on doing some type of pre-screening, other than, "Do you have fever or feel icky?" Even if the medical staffer thinks, this person is not infected, they are not making them get out of line and go home. But, I have not witnessed this for myself.

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If somebody is paranoid enough to be "thinking" they have it I bet they change their mind when that swab is reaches the vital area. One person we know who tested positive said the test was worse than the virus.

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Originally Posted by dawg80

Do you want to reword this, or are you saying they were trying to cause people to spread the virus? :shocked2:

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No sarcasm emoji required. The picture I saw had people lined up like they were boarding Space Mountain.