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I should have been on the ball about this before this week with a proper season preview. So in lieu of that I'll give last weeks "update," pretending the UTA game is yet to come.
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Right now, it seems that things hang on the edge of a knife. We should be able to get some confidence going into the lsu game.
This team has 7 seniors. I feel like we can make some noise. It sucks we have to go on the road to play preseason #1 & 2 (twice each).
Yes. A win over UTA goes a long way towards evening the predicted odds in our favor.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportdawg
It’s my understanding that no one loses a year of eligibility this year.
In basketball?Quote:
Originally Posted by sportdawg
These silly decisions from the NCAA need to stop, or we're going to have 25-yr olds playing college basketball, and crowding out the new recruits. At some point you've just got to tell players, "hey, your eligibility has expired. You had 5 yrs to play 4 just like everyone else. Yeah, I know COVID changed a lot of that, but it's an act of God that no one could help. We love ya, but you need to move on to the next thing in your life".
No doubt, COVID has wreaked havoc on sports......just as it has done in all walks of life. But, many people have lost lives, jobs, businesses and other opportunities due to COVID, and they didn't get a "do-over". So, I don't know why people believe student athletes should receive special treatment and be allowed to crowd out the next generation of athletes with extended eligibility. That's not right.
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Solid wins this week - NSU is as bottom-of-the-barrel as they come and I'd like to see a quicker start on teams like this but we got it done convincingly in the end. Take care of business vs ulm and we should be in striking distance of lsu. That would really make some noise if we can beat 5-on-8. Other than that we don't have any chance to make a case outside of conference play (yes, I understand that due to the panic we're mostly playing local in-state teams).
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A nice chestbeating win will be just the ticket against SELA. 3 players will get a double-double and we'll puff up at how good we are. Then ULLL beats us by 15.
Winter sport athletes did not get any eligibility back for losing the end of last season. This just complete the cycle that every NCAA athlete has had one year of eligibility frozen.Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
But I agree that it has to stop unless something else totally unforeseen happens.
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Results do not include the ULM game since I'm posting late.
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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
So, why are Marshall and WKU ranked so far ahead of us when we split with both? Especially WKU.....we beat them on their home court, and almost won both of 'em.
Because WKU has OOC wins over 67 Memphis, 76 Rhode Island, and 23 Alabama. Marshall has OOC wins vs 91 Wright St and 154 Ohio. Our highest OOC win is vs 172 UTA. Our wins vs those two are what got us closer to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
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Originally Posted by HogDawg
Exactly. We got our shit pushed in by #45 lsu and puffed our chests out over the worst teams in the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by tech_dawg_fan
I'm happy with the split, but I understand the ranking.
We're 5th in the conference and have been inching up so far this year. With a little luck I think we can finish in the top 4.
Sorry for missing the update last week. We continue to slowly rise through these bottom dwellers.
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The next 2 weeks are the key. They've been the key all season. 0-4 and it's just another failed Konkol sugar-on-shit season. 2-2 or better and we might have something special brewing.
Please explain your comment that I have bolded here. We're not playing Gonzaga and Duke. Why would a split with the next two be so good? Splitting with the Top 3 --WKU, UAB and North Texas-- didn't seem to help much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
To have something "special" brewing, I think we've got to go at least 3-1, with a sweep of UAB at home. Come to think of it, there's no way MTSU stops us on the road, so we really need to go 4-0 over the next 2 weeks. Play time is over. It's time to get down to business.
Because I have extremely low expectations but I am trying to be positive. Also, I posted that before the UNT series. So we are well on our way to 3-1 from that point. Just need a sweep of UAB which I think is achievable.Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
MTSU and Rice shouldn't give us trouble at all: therefore we will probably go 3-1 there also.
This team is better than pre-season pick UNT as evidenced by last weekend. completely shut down the defending POY. 4-2 is barely tolerable from here on out. 5-1 is acceptable. 6-0 should b expected.
...by the way, i hung with hogdawg last week-end. He is rubbing off on me��
LOL! Yep, I enjoyed it. Well......I enjoyed everything but the 2-pt loss to UNT. Tech was BETTER THAN UNT, but we still found a way to lose the 2nd one. Unfortunately, Tech had to play UNT AND the rotten game officials. There's no way we should have lost that 2nd game. Tech could have had a really special sweep with that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by skilldawg
Why does everybody we "split" with --including the road splits-- still rank ahead of us? Also why does UAB still have more Sag points than us (76.93 vs 75.87) after we beat them twice?Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
Sag points aren't the only thing the ranking takes into account - there's also the strength of schedule (UAB is 303, we are 180) and I think maybe a recency bias.Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
Per "recent" games (not sure how he defines), we rank #61 overall, right behind #58. WKU is 1-2 vs the top 25 - we are 0-1 vs the top 50.
Over my time doing this I think I've noticed that early season losses to better teams and stacking the schedule with crap creates a hurdle we never really get over. We didn't even beat LAMAR as badly as lsu beat us.
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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
So that matters?
It's funny. Nobody really talks about the fact that college basketball is the one sport where it pays to POUR IT ON your opponent. To hell with putting your subs in the game late with a 22 point lead and giving them some playing time.......you're better off leaving your starters in and beating the snot out of your opponent by 40 points if you can do it. Because apparently, these things are strongly considered come tournament time.
If you were trying to game Sagarin, sure. It ends up mattering a bit in the small differences - the difference between us and WKU is really not large.Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
I can't remember if Sagarin is actually used for seeding purposes.
Or kenpom, for that matter (which I think is better than Sagarin but ain't free) - but the WCC uses Kenpom for tie-breakers at least.
One bid, as usual.... We have the CHANCE to take this tournament, at least. I hope we FINALLY do it!Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
We have a shot. Actually, make that a bunch of shots that have to fall for us. Not the least of which is from the FT line.
There is no dominant team, but rather 5 good teams all about equal, and a couple that have a puncher's chance if they get hot and stay hot. Talking about MU and UTSA. They can definitely play spoiler knocking out a contender. In order, ranking: 1) WKU 2) Tech 3) UNT 4) ODU 5) UAB These are the 5 contenders.
The tourney winner will have done two things 1) played very well every night, 2) got a little lucky
haven’t seen any mention of this, but it has been a while since we were this high in this metric...
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../rankings/rpi/
Team Rankings gives us as 20% to win the conference championship.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/con...c-usa-bracket/
UNT leads with 24% then WKU with 21%.
hopefully, they will have to play each other before usQuote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
I think we're the only team that's played the best teams in the conference. And I think we're the best team in the conference. Of course, we could lose. But I wouldn't want to play us if I was the rest of them.
Why is UNT (#121) ranked two spots behind LA Tech (#119) even though the Mean Green has a higher point average (75.91 vs Tech's 75.46) than Tech?Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
The number is the Pure Points Predictor, which is used to predict the outcome. The ranking salts this with things like preseason weighting, strength of schedule, and whether or not you are a blueblood (just kidding...I think)Quote:
Originally Posted by HogDawg
They are generally highly correlated but down in the weeds like this there can be some mismatch.
The point is that Blended ranking numbers are being used with Predictor ratings. If the Predictor ratings are going to be used, the Predictor ranking numbers which are also provided should be used to list teams in order. Otherwise use the Blended ranking numbers and ratings. That way a team with a higher ranking number doesn't have a lower rating. The ranking systems are not designed to be mixed and matched.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
In FBS football this year, the Predictor ratings have been the most accurate of the four different Sagarin rating types in predicting winners by about 0.5% ahead of the Blended ratings.
I'll use PPP going forward then. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Calculated before the TSU game.
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Sorry about Christmas delays
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I look forward to seeing this data. Any updates after winning last road series?
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We are generally in a holding position. UAB will be our true test, as always.
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I think this is probably the best shot we've had at UAB all year. It's a coin flip. We cannot afford to play slow in the first half.
Thanks bluedawg
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At least we have UNT to look forward to for our next big "statement" win.
A bit belated. I expect UTEP to be one of our lowest Q games of the year so far.
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