Reality Check's Weekly Sagarin Predictor Thread...

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Originally Posted by RealityCheck

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 1 Projections: 08-29-2014, 01:58 AM
Using the Sagarin Pure Points ratings with a 3.12 homefield advantage, Tech is projected to finish 7-5, 6-2.

L 36.34 at Oklahoma
L 11.12 at ULL
L 9.65 at North Texas
W 12.23 vs NSU
L 24.22 at Auburn
W 9.20 vs UTEP
W 2.46 vs UTSA
W 0.33 at USM
W 3.17 vs WKU
W 3.30 at UAB
W 0.53 at ODU
L 1.21 vs Rice

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Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 1 recap and Week 2 projections
Week 1 Sagarin Predictor straight-up record--73-11 (.869), 2013 Week 1--60-15 (.800)
Homefield advantage stays at 3.12 in the Week 2 ratings.
76 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill).

Of the 11 games projected incorrectly in Week 1, there were 5 C-USA games:
UAB losing by 3.73 to Troy (won 48-10)
WKU losing by 7.78 to Bowling Green (won 59-31)
FIU beating Bethune-Cookman (lost 14-12)
UTSA losing by 15.43 at Houston (won 27-7)
UTEP losing at New Mexico 7.07 (won 31-24)

Tech projected to finish 7-5, 6-2 (no change from Week 1 ratings)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
L 9.91 at ULL (up from L by 11.12 last week)
L 8.56 at North Texas (up from L by 9.65)
W 13.22 vs NSU (up from W by 12.23)
L 32.07 at Auburn (down from L by 24.22)
W 9.41 vs UTEP (up from W by 9.20)
W 1.54 vs UTSA (down from W by 2.46)
W 1.53 at USM (up from W by 0.33)
W 2.64 vs WKU (down from W by 3.17)
W 2.56 at UAB (down from W by 3.30)
W 2.16 at ODU (up from W by 0.53)
L 0.63 vs Rice (up from L by 1.21)

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Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 1 recap and Week 2 projections
Week 1 Sagarin Predictor straight-up record--73-11 (.869), 2013 Week 1--60-15 (.800)
Homefield advantage stays at 3.12 in the Week 2 ratings.
76 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill).

Of the 11 games projected incorrectly in Week 1, there were 5 C-USA games:
UAB losing by 3.73 to Troy (won 48-10)
WKU losing by 7.78 to Bowling Green (won 59-31)
FIU beating Bethune-Cookman (lost 14-12)
UTSA losing by 15.43 at Houston (won 27-7)
UTEP losing at New Mexico 7.07 (won 31-24)

Tech projected to finish 7-5, 6-2 (no change from Week 1 ratings)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
L 9.91 at ULL (up from L by 11.12 last week)
L 8.56 at North Texas (up from L by 9.65)
W 13.22 vs NSU (up from W by 12.23)
L 32.07 at Auburn (down from L by 24.22)
W 9.41 vs UTEP (up from W by 9.20)
W 1.54 vs UTSA (down from W by 2.46)
W 1.53 at USM (up from W by 0.33)
W 2.64 vs WKU (down from W by 3.17)
W 2.56 at UAB (down from W by 3.30)
W 2.16 at ODU (up from W by 0.53)
L 0.63 vs Rice (up from L by 1.21)

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Looks like Sagarin has a problem with predicting CUSA...

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Originally Posted by GermDawg

Looks like Sagarin has a problem with predicting CUSA...

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Except for FIU not pulling its weight... this looks like some nice data points against to other G-5 conferences.. A win each against MWC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt!

Interesting. I think we split ULL and UNT, lose to WKU and UTSA though. So I'm predicting 6-6.

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Originally Posted by DocMarvin362

Interesting. I think we split ULL and UNT, lose to WKU and UTSA though. So I'm predicting 6-6.

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I would take 6-6 and pay good money for it...

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Originally Posted by domangue

Except for FIU not pulling its weight... this looks like some nice data points against to other G-5 conferences.. A win each against MWC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt!

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TWO wins against the MAC!

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Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden

I would take 6-6 and pay good money for it...

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I will pich in half.

DFM, thanks for setting up the thread.

This season is very much like early last year when the margin between 8-4 and 4-8 (or possibly worse) is very small. Those last six games with no margin bigger than 2.64 and a 3.12 homefield advantage is an eye-opener. Running the table except for Rice is still a tall order with three of those projected wins being road games.

I'd take 6-6 with the projected guaranteed bowl bid right now and not think twice about it.

Note: Updated to include Penn State as a projected bowl-eligible team.

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 2 recap with Week 3 projections
Week 2 Sagarin Predictor straight-up record--64-10 (.865), 2013 Week 2--65-10 (.867)
Season to date--137-21 (.867), 2013 after Week 2--125-25 (.833)

Homefield advantage is at 3.89 in the Week 3 ratings, up from 3.12 in Week 2.

77 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 3, up 1 from Week 2.
AAC--6, ACC--11, Big 12--7, Big Ten--7, C-USA--8, Indy--3, MAC--8, MWC--6, Pac 12--7, $EC--10, SBC--4

5 teams are projected to finish undefeated before conference championship games--
Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon.

Marshall was projected 12-0 last week, but dropped to 11-1 this week since it is projected to lose by 0.17 at Akron in Week 4. Boise State, Northern Illinois, and BYU are the other G5 teams projected to finish 11-1.

Here were the 10 teams projected to lose in FBS games that won in Week 2:
BYU (won at Texas 41-7, projected to lose by 7.64)
Central Michigan (won at Purdue 38-17, projected to lose by 5.33)
Louisiana Tech (won at ULL 48-20, projected to lose by 9.91)
Eastern Kentucky (won at Miami OH 17-10, projected to lose by 0.51)
Missouri (won vs Toledo 49-24, projected to lose by 0.49)
Nevada (won vs Washington State 24-13, projected to lose by 2.43)
New Mexico State (won at Georgia State 34-31, projected to lose by 3.27)
Northern Illinois (won at Northwestern 23-15, projected to lose by 7.40)
USC (won at Stanford 13-10, projected to lose by 5.82)
Virginia Tech (won at Ohio State 35-21, projected to lose by 14.01)

Tech projected to finish 9-3, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place (up from 7-5, 6-2 C-USA West 3rd place in Week 2 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
L by 8.43 at North Texas (up from L by 8.56)
W by 15.51 vs NSU (up from W by 13.22)
L by 30.23 at Auburn (up from L by 32.07)
W by 11.06 vs UTEP (up from W by 9.41)
W by 2.73 vs UTSA (up from W by 1.54)
W by 5.22 at USM (up from W by 1.53)
W by 4.87 vs WKU (up from W by 2.64)
W by 1.55 at UAB (down from W by 2.56)
W by 3.36 at ODU (up from W by 2.16)
W by 2.09 vs Rice (up from L by 0.63)

Other Week 3 C-USA Projected Results
Marshall W by 9.80 vs Ohio
Middle Tennessee W by 4.65 vs Western Kentucky
Rice L by 27.81 at Texas A&M
FAU W by 5.33 vs Tulsa
UTSA L by 21.56 at Oklahoma State
UTEP W by 12.21 vs New Mexico State
UAB W by 35.42 vs Alabama A&M
ODU W by 13.45 vs Eastern Michigan
USM L by 44.65 at Alabama
FIU L by 18.08 vs Pittsburgh

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Originally Posted by RealityCheck

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 2 recap with Week 3 projections to come after the new ratings are posted
Week 2 Sagarin Predictor straight-up record--64-10 (.865), 2013 Week 2--65-10 (.867)
Season to date--137-21 (.867), 2013 after Week 2--125-25 (.833)
Homefield advantage was at 3.12 in the Week 2 ratings.
76 teams were projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 2

Here were the 10 teams projected to lose in FBS games that won in Week 2:
BYU (won at Texas 41-7, projected to lose by 7.64)
Central Michigan (won at Purdue 38-17, projected to lose by 5.33)
Louisiana Tech (won at ULL 48-20, projected to lose by 9.91)
Eastern Kentucky (won at Miami OH 17-10, projected to lose by 0.51)
Missouri (won vs Toledo 49-24, projected to lose by 0.49)
Nevada (won vs Washington State 24-13, projected to lose by 2.43)
New Mexico State (won at Georgia State 34-31, projected to lose by 3.27)
Northern Illinois (won at Northwestern 23-15, projected to lose by 7.40)
USC (won at Stanford 13-10, projected to lose by 5.82)
Virginia Tech (won at Ohio State 35-21, projected to lose by 14.01)

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...So he only missed our game by a net of 38 points? Hell, if I was that bad at my job I'd get fired.

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

...So he only missed our game by a net of 38 points? Hell, if I was that bad at my job I'd get fired.

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It's been feast or famine this year so far. The overall percentage correct has been improved, but a large number of the misses have been WAY off.

We are going to win out with a loss to Auburn.

Is Sagarin any better than the old DUNKEL INDEX?

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Originally Posted by Houston Techsan

Is Sagarin any better than the old DUNKEL INDEX?

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Game 357-358: Louisiana Tech at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel
Ratings: Louisiana Tech 73.472; UL-Lafayette 84.698
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette
by 11; 52
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 14; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana
Tech (+14); Under

Game 185-186: Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel
Ratings: Louisiana Tech 64.045; Oklahoma 116.205
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 52;
58
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 38; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-38); Over