Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
I'm glad UTSA/USM are at home.
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sportdawg
I'm glad UTSA/USM are at home.
I agree about UTSA.
USM owns us so it won't matter.;)
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PawDawg
Time for things to start making sense in Sagarin. I guess it will take one more week. I guess our home loss to Miss St hurt us more than the WKU loss at Illinois. Seems like our road win at WKU would put us over the top. NSU losing to Grambling had to hurt us.
It's all gobbly gook to me. Unless you're betting hard money it doesn't really matter. And it's good conversation, I guess.
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Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blue Dawg
We rise to last week's spot, while WKU falls to just above us.
Attachment 14148
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Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Here's an interesting way to look at things: we are middle of the pack for all the normal stats in CUSA, and MSST is the best overall for most items excluding passing. We have played an average SOS thus far (Sagarin's grades vs games played thus far). I've highlighted the top CUSA team in each category in green (MSST in categories where it has a better stat than CUSA I've used money green), and the worst in CUSA in red (UTEP and Rice are the winners of these, but they've both played top 3 SOS so far). I've kept the teams in the same order as the composite above
Attachment 14149
As for Tech's ranking is CUSA:
Total O/G: 4th (413 yds/g)
Rush O/G: 8th (165 yds/g)
Pass O/G: 5th (248.3 yds/g)
Points/G: 4th (32)
Total D/G: 10th (408 yds/g)
Rush D/G: 13th (203.7 yds/g)
Pass D/G: 6th (204.7 yds/g)
SOS: 5th (63 on Sagarin)
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
UTSA jumps to the front of the line. We're still favored but not by much. Straight up, we're still favored to win 10. Mathematically, those chances have dropped to about 8%. The most likely scenario is 8 wins (33%) so I suspect we drop USM and UTSA.
|
Last Wk |
This Wk |
Sag Rk |
79 |
82 |
Sag Rat |
64.29 |
65.01 |
Pred W-L |
10-2 |
10-2 |
Pred W-L |
0.833 |
0.833 |
Home Adv |
2.41 |
2.41 |
OOC Rk |
105 |
107 |
Conf Rk |
121 |
123 |
Conf Opp Rk |
119 |
121 |
H/A |
Rk |
Team |
Sag |
Fav |
W/L |
+/- |
Act |
Quality |
W% |
|
228 |
NWSt |
|
28 |
|
|
W |
59.07 |
|
|
25 |
MSU |
|
-36 |
|
|
L |
49.56 |
|
@ |
69 |
WKU |
|
1 |
|
|
W |
68.04 |
|
@ |
54 |
SC |
|
-1 |
|
|
L |
73.35 |
|
|
120 |
SA |
57.32 |
10.10 |
W |
2.75 |
|
|
0.75 |
@ |
153 |
UAB |
49.92 |
12.68 |
W |
0.16 |
|
|
0.82 |
|
88 |
USM |
65.11 |
2.31 |
W |
0.78 |
|
|
0.56 |
@ |
156 |
Rice |
48.88 |
13.72 |
W |
2.65 |
|
|
0.84 |
|
121 |
UNT |
56.99 |
10.43 |
W |
1.55 |
|
|
0.76 |
|
111 |
FAU |
60.07 |
7.35 |
W |
1.05 |
|
|
0.68 |
@ |
189 |
UTEP |
42.22 |
20.38 |
W |
3.04 |
|
|
1.00 |
|
78 |
UTSA |
66.54 |
0.88 |
W |
-1.34 |
|
|
0.52 |
Rk |
C-USA |
78 |
UTSA |
79 |
Western Kentucky |
82 |
Louisiana Tech |
88 |
Southern Miss |
96 |
Marshall |
100 |
Middle Tennessee |
111 |
Florida Atlantic |
114 |
Old Dominion |
121 |
North Texas |
152 |
Fla. International |
153 |
UAB |
156 |
Rice |
189 |
UTEP |
201 |
Charlotte |
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Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blue Dawg
UTSA jumps to the front of the line. We're still favored but not by much. Straight up, we're still favored to win 10. Mathematically, those chances have dropped to about 8%. The most likely scenario is 8 wins (33%) so I suspect we drop USM and UTSA.
Thanks to positive impressions from CFN and Paul Myerberg due to the USCar game, we barely maintain the top spot in the composite rankings (i.e. 1-7 remain the same). UNT & FIU improves in CUSA, and USL finally drops below NLULM. And yes, UNCC is across the board the worst team in FBS...
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Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Updated Stats. Tech's still in the middle for all of these, except that now Sagarin says Tech has played the best SOS. UTSA has the best overall stats; however, they have the 2nd worst SOS in CUSA. I'm also happy to see we've brought our run D below 200 YPG
Attachment 14167
As for Tech's ranking is CUSA:
Total Offense: #5 (400 YPG)
Rush Offense: #8 (143.8 YPG)
Pass Offense: #5 (256.5 YPG)
Total Defense: #10 (413 YPG)
Rush Defense: #12 (186 YPG)
Pass Defense: #6 (227.3 YPG)
SOS: #1 (38)
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Keep an eye on this page as well:
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pa...stical-profile
We are rated very poorly in nearly every category. I haven't compared to the rest of CUSA. #91 overall.
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blue Dawg
I find it interesting that he still has WKU has the top team in CUSA (67, UTSA 68, SoMiss 71, FAU 82, Tech 91). Any ranking that has FAU better than Tech is sketchy at best, and WKU's performances thus far don't deserve to be best ranked in CUSA.
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
I don't understand the love fest with UTSA, Baylor is horrible this year.
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GermDawg
I don't understand the love fest with UTSA, Baylor is horrible this year.
Only redeeming quality I see for them is the 41-47 loss they had with Oklahoma last week. Assuming Oklahoma is good (crushed Ohio State), that's a pretty good testament to UTSA's prowess
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BearDawg137
I find it interesting that he still has WKU has the top team in CUSA (67, UTSA 68, SoMiss 71, FAU 82, Tech 91). Any ranking that has FAU better than Tech is sketchy at best, and WKU's performances thus far don't deserve to be best ranked in CUSA.
It's statistics. And they have some fairly unbiased stuff tbf.
Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Blue Dawg
It's statistics. And they have some fairly unbiased stuff tbf.
Fairly unbiased maybe, but it has to have a good bias toward last year's results to have WKU that high.
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Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017
Tech maintains top place, Marshall jumps WKU for 3rd, and SoMiss drops from 2nd to 7th.
The composite still has USA ranked 8pts higher than UAB, which hopefully means good things for us this weekend.
Also, LSU warrents a new drop color, due to being the first team to drop more than 20 points in the composite. LSU is now worse than both MSST & USCar
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