Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

We won 9 games last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. We're predicted to win 9 games this year.

Despite this, Sagarin ranks us #74. That's just disrespectful.

	Last Yr	This Wk
Sag Rk	68	74
Sag Rat		67.89
Pred W-L		9-3
Pred W-L		0.750
Home Adv		2.41
OOC Rk		104
Conf Rk		119
Conf Opp Rk		119

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
	228	NWSt	28.66	41.64	W				1.00
	31	MSU	79.23	-8.93	L				0.28
@	53	WKU	73.64	-8.16	L				0.30
@	50	SC	74.60	-9.12	L				0.27
	106	SA	59.72	10.58	W				0.76
@	152	UAB	50.26	15.22	W				0.88
	103	USM	60.07	10.23	W				0.76
@	132	Rice	54.02	11.46	W				0.79
	129	UNT	55.20	15.10	W				0.88
	136	FAU	53.16	17.14	W				0.93
@	150	UTEP	50.58	14.90	W				0.87
	100	UTSA	60.45	9.85	W				0.75

Rk	C-USA
53	Western Kentucky
74	Louisiana Tech
84	Middle Tennessee
100	UTSA
102	Old Dominion
103	Southern Miss
111	Marshall
129	North Texas
132	Rice
136	Florida Atlantic
150	UTEP
152	UAB
153	Fla. International
184	Charlotte

Games	Chance to win at least x games
0	100
1	100
2	100
3	99
4	95
5	84
6	62
7	34
8	13
9	3
10	0
11	0
12	0

does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by counselingdawg

does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

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I think 2-1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by counselingdawg

does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

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They don't read past "not Cartel 5" and just pencil in 1-3. If we go 1-3 against that group it's going to be a long year, I think. We have the stones to go at least 2-2 if Skip will let us, and 3-1 isn't totally out of the question. 4-0 would essentially mean we'd go undefeated the rest of the way, and I think that's a little out of reach.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

We won 9 games last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. We're predicted to win 9 games this year.

Despite this, Sagarin ranks us #74. That's just disrespectful.

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That is quite an understatement. Mississippi State and South Carolina finished last season with Losing records, yet we are underdogs to both. Miss State even finished the regular season with a losing record. That's BS! I can see both teams having losing regular season records this YEAR, as well.

I admit South Carolina will be a tough place to play, but that game is winnable. No way should Mississippi State be favored against us at home. People must think our entire offense is in the NFL and we have nothing left. I just cannot imagine starting 1-3. IMO I think starting 4-0 is more likely than 1-3. If we do start 4-0, watch out baby! SHOCK THE NATION!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by counselingdawg

does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

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I don't pick us to start 1-3. No way should we be underdogs to Miss State.

I do understand that these are computer rankings. But even those have bias: my own rankings have bias, and are usually too favorable to teams who win a lot against cupcakes. Before redoing my SoS adjustment, I had Georgia Southern in my Top 25! So I understand the need to add those corrections for schedule. Unfortunately, I suspect that Sagarin falls into the same trap as everyone else, and makes too much hay from conference affiliation.

Sagarin is not out to get us. They are never accurate in the beginning. Don't EVER use them to help figure out which team to bet on in the first few weeks. You will lose BIG!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

Sagarin is not out to get us. They are never accurate in the beginning. Don't EVER use them to help figure out which team to bet on in the first few weeks. You will lose BIG!

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That's true of any ranking. Although - Sagarin correctly picked every game last year except for WKU, and that was the initial rankings. Just saying.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by counselingdawg

does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

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Im going 2-2 but im not telling who the other win is.

Key game will be WK. 3-1 if we can win it. Nothing unusual about that-- preseason SEC teams ranked #31 and # 50. 2 time defending champs WK ranked # 53. Rest of schedule ranked from 100 to 228 except MT (84). We do get respect but conference does not-- 7 teams preseason 125 ranking and worse. For 3 years now we finish September with losing record and rebound from there... I hope I'm wrong about September but 1-3 would not panic me-- Leaving myself a little wiggle room - if DEFENCE steps up ....

We drop a few spots after not beating NWSt by as much as we should have. Something closer to a 40 point win would probably have kept us steady (I keep a measure of game quality in the schedule list, 59 is not good at all, 80+ would be much better). As a result, the MSU line dropped by 4 points and the SC line by 2 (the WKU line rose by 4 but still not enough to give us the edge). The numbers here do not give me a good feeling about our chances for any type of marquee win, but I think we've all come to expect that.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	74	79
Sag Rat	67.89	65.08
Pred W-L	9-3	9-3
Pred W-L	0.750	0.750
Home Adv	2.41	2.41
OOC Rk	104	100
Conf Rk	119	121
Conf Opp Rk	119	122

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
		NWSt		28			W	59.07
	25	MSU	83.15	-12.85	L	-3.92			0.18
@	59	WKU	69.55	-4.07	L	4.09			0.40
@	38	SC	76.57	-11.09	L	-1.97			0.22
	109	SA	59.95	10.35	W	-0.23			0.76
@	147	UAB	49.7	15.78	W	0.56			0.89
	111	USM	60.49	9.81	W	-0.42			0.75
@	136	Rice	50.27	15.21	W	3.75			0.88
	119	UNT	59.34	10.96	W	-4.14			0.77
	141	FAU	52.08	18.22	W	1.08			0.96
@	146	UTEP	50.26	15.22	W	0.32			0.88
	115	UTSA	58.38	11.92	W	2.07			0.80

Rk	C-USA
59	Western Kentucky
79	Louisiana Tech
98	Marshall
99	Old Dominion
100	Middle Tennessee
111	Southern Miss
115	UTSA
119	North Texas
136	Rice
141	Florida Atlantic
146	UTEP
147	UAB
160	Fla. International
187	Charlotte

To add to Bluedawg's post, I've compiled the rankings from Massey, Sagarin (I realize Massey includes Sagarin), USA Today Paul Myerberg, CBS, and College Football Network (these 3 did not appear to be included with Massey), and then I averaged the scores together as my own composite. I've also included all the FBS schools in Louisiana, our former WAC rivals Fresno State & Nevada, and our FBS Non-conference opponents.

	Massey	Sagarin	PaulMyerberg USAToday	CFN	CBS	Composite
Conference USA
WKU	41	59	27	61	40	45.6
Tech	66	79	44	81	61	66.2
ODU	80	99	54	88	88	81.8
SoMiss	94	111	72	78	74	85.8
Marshall	101	98	73	97	70	87.8
MTSU	100	100	86	83	99	93.6
UTSA	92	115	67	110	104	97.6
UNT	109	119	88	106	103	105
FAU	124	141	107	108	113	118.6
UAB	113	147	125	129	101	123
Rice	128	136	114	125	127	126
UTEP	125	146	127	118	121	127.4
FIU	126	160	119	109	125	127.8
UNCC	130	187	122	126	124	137.8
Non-Conference Schedule
USCaro	50	38	32	29	34	36.6
MSST	37	25	53	45	37	39.4
USA	112	109	100	119	106	109.2
In-State Schools and Former WAC Rivals
Nevada	103	108	95	85	116	101.4
FS	111	133	123	103	95	113
LSU	6	4	12	16	9	9.4
Tulane	90	116	98	102	96	100.4
ULM	118	132	121	111	89	114.2
ULL	95	105	115	122	110	109.4

Fresno's fall has been precipitous and I love it.

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
		NWSt		28			W	59.07
	25	MSU	83.15	-12.85	L	-3.92			0.18
@	59	WKU	69.55	-4.07	L	4.09			0.40
@	38	SC	76.57	-11.09	L	-1.97			0.22
	109	SA	59.95	10.35	W	-0.23			0.76
@	147	UAB	49.7	15.78	W	0.56			0.89
	111	USM	60.49	9.81	W	-0.42			0.75
@	136	Rice	50.27	15.21	W	3.75			0.88
	119	UNT	59.34	10.96	W	-4.14			0.77
	141	FAU	52.08	18.22	W	1.08			0.96
@	146	UTEP	50.26	15.22	W	0.32			0.88
	115	UTSA	58.38	11.92	W	2.07

I would be happy with this to be the results at the end of the season. However, I would trade a loss against MSU or USC for a win against any of the other games and call it our WTF game.