Is the Big 12 Dead?

In December, 2015 and in July, 2016 I wrote in a couple of threads that the Big 12 was going to either expand or die as we know it.

OU president David Boren attempted for years and years to convince Texas to give up the Longhorn Network and expand the league in order to save it. None of it worked. Rumors are now rampant that OU wants out. I thought for years, as did others, that the Big 12 would expand by 2016 and that there would be movement in both the Big 10 and SEC. Without Big 12 expansion everybody stayed pat.

The only way for schools in the Big 12 to get out of their Grant of Rights that were signed in 2010 was if the conference lost 5 or more schools and the league simply died from a legal standpoint. In 2015, scenarios were emerging that would send Missouri and Kansas to the Big 10, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU to the SEC, and West Virginia and one other school to the ACC, possibly. That would kill the Big 12.

The interesting thing to me a year ago was that none of the rumors involving other leagues included Texas. The only other landing spot for Texas would be the Pac 12. If the Pac 12 said they had no interest, Texas would be left in the Big 12 with Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Baylor and then having to rebuild the league.

The current rumor within the Texas fanbase is that they're now looking for a landing spot. If that's true, the league as we know it is done.

That must mean that we're going to join along with Ark. State, UTSA, Rice and Eastern Michigan.

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Originally Posted by Houston Techsan

That must mean that we're going to join along with Ark. State, UTSA, Rice and Eastern Michigan.

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I know we're all tired of this topic. I joke about it as well. But it's not going away.

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Originally Posted by The Historian

I know we're all tired of this topic. I joke about it as well. But it's not going away.

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Hopefully our next major project will be underway by the time things break loose again. Our market will always hurt compared UTSA or even UTEP. Rice? Who knows? Arkansas State has got to be about maxed out on their potential for growth.

Andy Staples from SI was on SiriusXM earlier this week. During the conversation the three schools most mentioned as being left behind if the league completely fell apart were Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State. Would the NCAA give them waivers to stay together and expand? Or would they all move to the MWC or the AAC?

Back in 2010 if Texas would have left for the Pac 10 and taken six schools with them, the remaining schools in the Big 12 were preparing to join the Big East. That option is off the table now.

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

Hopefully our next major project will be underway by the time things break loose again. Our market will always hurt compared UTSA or even UTEP. Rice? Who knows? Arkansas State has got to be about maxed out on their potential for growth.

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It is not the size of the market, it is how you use it. Some of these conferences need to understand that and we (TECH) need to grasp that. There are schools in the SEC and B12 that have....

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Originally Posted by champion110

It is not the size of the market, it is how you use it. Some of these conferences need to understand that and we (TECH) need to grasp that. There are schools in the SEC and B12 that have....

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What do you think could happen?

Kanas St
Baylor
Iowa St
Houston
Memphis
UCF
USF
UCONN
CINN
Colo St
Boise
La Tech

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Originally Posted by The Historian

Andy Staples from SI was on SiriusXM earlier this week. During the conversation the three schools most mentioned as being left behind if the league completely fell apart were Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State. Would the NCAA give them waivers to stay together and expand? Or would they all move to the MWC or the AAC?

Back in 2010 if Texas would have left for the Pac 10 and taken six schools with them, the remaining schools in the Big 12 were preparing to join the Big East. That option is off the table now.

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I have TCU and WVU on the list of likely vulnerables as well. I don't see where they get picked up. I doubt they end up in the AAC or MWC. There should be at least five and they can pay for three (or four) schools to join early to keep the conference together. They could even invite NMSU for a 1-year membership, if it came down to it!

But anyway, if I'm Texas I'm probably talking to USC about a new western conference with the best of the Pac-12 and Big 12, or with the ACC about a Notre Dame arrangement.

Will any group be able to negotiate no Sunday games for BYU? ESPN was all PC and was never going to give in. Will other networks respect BYU's wishes or will they take the hate stand of ESPN?

Saying this to say BYU is an asset to any group.

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

Will any group be able to negotiate no Sunday games for BYU? ESPN was all PC and was never going to give in. Will other networks respect BYU's wishes or will they take the hate stand of ESPN?

Saying this to say BYU is an asset to any group.

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If a conference was willing to take BYU as football-only, Sundays would be a non-issue. But that's a big if. If push comes to shove, the Big XII might want to consider that option.

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Originally Posted by techdawg28

If a conference was willing to take BYU as football-only, Sundays would be a non-issue. But that's a big if. If push comes to shove, the Big XII might want to consider that option.

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I love the fact that BYU takes a stand and will not sell out to TV's demands.

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

I love the fact that BYU takes a stand and will not sell out to TV's demands.

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There are College FB games on Sunday?

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

I love the fact that BYU takes a stand and will not sell out to TV's demands.

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There are College FB games on Sunday?

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Originally Posted by stodgdog

There are College FB games on Sunday?

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I think he means all sports- but there are cfb games on Sunday on opening weekend

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Originally Posted by PawDawg

I love the fact that BYU takes a stand and will not sell out to TV's demands.

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It makes it easier when they own their own TV network.

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Originally Posted by Dawg06

It makes it easier when they own their own TV network.

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That's not why they didn't cave to the demands of ESPN related to the Big12.

Finebaum apparently went on a rant last week on this topic:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/se...te-get-big-12/

Berry Tramel responded. Keep in mind, Tramel was one of the people in 2010 who said Nebraska would never leave, Colorado would never leave, etc...:

http://newsok.com/article/5548249

Okay. I admit it. I'm confused.

I thought the TV Networks were forecasted to become less and less important to college football over the next few years, because TV viewers everywhere are now cutting the cord? That's why ESPN is in a downward tailspin, right? ESPN is losing potential viewers (or subscribers) at a ridiculous rate of about 300K subscribers per month. And this means they no longer have the revenue to throw big money contracts at professional and college sports.

Wasn't this exactly why CUSA received virtually zero dollars for their last negotiated TV contract? We've been told repeatedly that "the game is changing", that people now want to stream football games instead of watching them on ESPN or some other regular TV broadcast network (e.g., Foxsports, etc....)

With all this in mind, why does Finebaum think the lack of a conference TV network is hurting the Big XII? And before you answer, please understand that I get the fact that the conference networks have been paying big bucks to conference members up until now. But, isn't the conference TV money GOING AWAY --or at least expected to dwindle-- just like it is for ESPN? Are conference TV networks expected to be imune to these "cutting the cord" problems while regular TV networks are expected to suffer?

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Originally Posted by HogDawg

Okay. I admit it. I'm confused.

I thought the TV Networks were forecasted to become less and less important to college football over the next few years, because TV viewers everywhere are now cutting the cord? That's why ESPN is in a downward tailspin, right? ESPN is losing potential viewers (or subscribers) at a ridiculous rate of about 300K subscribers per month. And this means they no longer have the revenue to throw big money contracts at professional and college sports.

Wasn't this exactly why CUSA received virtually zero dollars for their last negotiated TV contract? We've been told repeatedly that "the game is changing", that people now want to stream football games instead of watching them on ESPN or some other regular TV broadcast network (e.g., Foxsports, etc....)

With all this in mind, why does Finebaum think the lack of a conference TV network is hurting the Big XII? And before you answer, please understand that I get the fact that the conference networks have been paying big bucks to conference members up until now. But, isn't the conference TV money GOING AWAY --or at least expected to dwindle-- just like it is for ESPN? Are conference TV networks expected to be imune to these "cutting the cord" problems while regular TV networks are expected to suffer?

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ESPN is being hit by chord cutters, but I've seen and heard reporting lately that describes it as a "margin pressure" problem at ESPN. They are still unbelievably profitable. They will continue to pursue the NBA and NFL. And even knowing what they're facing in the coming decade they were part of the Big 10's new deal signed in 2016. Fox is also a major player in that deal and chord cutters have impacted their networks, as well.

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports...ames/86133418/

Regarding the CUSA deal. It went from 700k to 200k per year. It appears the reason for the steep decline was as much bad advice from the consultant involved which led to the presidents moving away from a proposed deal from Fox early in the last round of negotiations as anything else.

Regarding Conference TV money. Separate the Tier 1 and 2 money (traditional network revenue) from the Tier 3 money (conference network revenue). As evidenced by the traditional network deals the Big 10 and SEC have received there is no indication that money is going to dry up. Even in the face of all of the chord cutter talk, ESPN and Fox stepped to the plate for the Big 10. Are they willing to live with smaller margins in the future? The answer seems to be yes.

The conference network revenue is a little bit different story. The SEC and Big 10 Networks have been hit by chord cutting just like ESPN. But they're still highly profitable and are bringing in more revenue each year. The Pac 12 network has never really gotten off the ground. The ACC Network launches in the next few years, and how ESPN rolls its out has been the subject of a lot of speculation. But it's still expected to be highly profitable for that league.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2...ill_the_k.html

The problem for the Big 12 when it comes to Tier 3 money is the fact schools like Texas and Oklahoma can generate big tier 3 money. For Texas it's through guaranteed money from ESPN for the Longhorn Network. For Oklahoma it's through a regional deal with Fox. Most of the rest of the league doesn't have that ability. A Big 12 network would provide, even in a chord cutting world, much more tier 3 revenue to most of the league. Its creation, along with conference expansion and the extension of the Grant of Rights, would stabilize the league for the long term. That's basically Finebaum's point.

Most of the talk yesterday throughout the day on SiriusXM's college sports channel was about the potential demise of the Big 12. Very interesting stuff. David Boren has been working for years to keep the league together, and now it appears that privately even he's thrown in the towel.

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Originally Posted by The Historian

Most of the talk yesterday throughout the day on SiriusXM's college sports channel was about the potential demise of the Big 12. Very interesting stuff. David Boren has been working for years to keep the league together, and now it appears that privately even he's thrown in the towel.

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Boren himself did tremendous damage to the league. If Oklahoma hadn't flirted with the Pac-12 in 2011, Missouri probably wouldn't have bolted. A&M leaving hurt, but Missouri leaving was devastating.