Last In 2022 Field Of 64 Projections: April 20 • D1Baseball 3 seed in Ft Worth
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Last In 2022 Field Of 64 Projections: April 20 • D1Baseball 3 seed in Ft Worth
I hate to see us on the "last 4 in" list!
At least we're currently included, #3 seed at TCU regional. Have to keep winning at a high rate. All we can do is win the games in front of us...starts tonight.
Tech's projected RPI on warrennolan.com today is 26. That would probably equate to a very low 2 seed or high 3 seed and nowhere near the last 4 in list. But the only way to get there and stay off any "last 4 in" (or worse) list is to get wins.
Hoping we can keep getting wins with only 8 batters.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
This morning it's dropped to 39...Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
18 of our 26 OOC games are probably going to end up as Q4 games (basically 70% of our OOC schedule) which equates to a OOC SOS at 121...
Losing those 3 games is a killer right now
And we still host ULM, and got UALR and NWST - can't lose any of those
It’s all going to work out very nicely when we get the CUSA automatic bid by beating USM’s ass at ‘their‘ conference which obviously shouldn’t be.
Tech's predicted RPI is either at 48 or 53 depending on where you look on warrennolan.com. And as of right now there are 22 conference leaders out of the 31 conferences with an RPI lower than 45. Even with a 48 predicted RPI, Tech would probably only be on a Next 4 Out list.
To have any chance of improving that RPI, Tech needs to finish the regular season no worse than 12-3 to get to 40 wins by sweeping the three midweek games, winning the conference series at least by 2-1 at ODU, vs FAU, and at Charlotte, and sweeping the WKU home conference series.
Unfortunately, that’s pretty much impossible. Historically Burroughs and Tech are known for late season slumps of sorts. In 2021 when we were notably a better team we went 8-7 in our last 15 games. The last 15 games this year will be a tougher task than they were last year. Where last year we had a tendency to come back late in games to win this year we choke up and fall short. We simply have too many weak links to try to overcome and the pressure is too much for the few better players to live up to.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
This isn't past years. But if this year's performance does not exceed past performance, then this team won't be an NCAA tournament team. It's that simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
My crystal ball says we’ll go 9-6 and finish 3 in the tournament. OBTW, in a rage, I just smashed my crystal ball.
LB “Skips” the tournament.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
Six of the 15 games left are against RPI teams 219, 175, 222, and 3 against 229 with four of those six at home. Those need to be a clean sweep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
The other nine conference games will be no picnic with six of those on the road. 6-3 would be a very good record in those games. But that's what Tech needs to do along with getting to at least the final Saturday pool game in Hattiesburg to get off the wrong side of the bubble.
We still have ODU, FAU and UNCC left to go, with WKU as a must win. USM has UAB, ODU, UTSA, and MTSU. I still think it could be anyone's game, even in the tourney. But we have to keep winning. And honestly, it would be sad if only 2 teams got in from CUSA which is ranked the 5th toughest ELO in the nation after last year. FAU, UTSA, or ODU or even Charlotte could make a case.
Charlotte can't make a case right now with an 88 RPI. A 216 non-conference SOS just doesn't cut it (Tech's is at 79).Quote:
Originally Posted by tigtoo30
But Tech, MT, UTSA, and ODU are all in position to make cases with strong finishes down the stretch. Don't know if I can see 4 C-USA teams making it like last year, but 3 wouldn't be a stretch if the resumes improve enough.
If Tech is going to make the NCAAs Burroughs is going to have to coach his ass off like he’s never done before and get another level of play out of the Dawgs that we really haven’t seen yet this season. Seriously... Burroughs coasting through games hoping that the team gets it together in a tough situation won’t cut it at this point. Right now Tech needs coaching leadership more than they’ve ever needed it before. Burroughs is quick to say the team needs to play loose and have fun, but the thing is there’s another team on the field that won’t let you do that. To win they need to spoil your fun and that’s what they’re out to do. There comes a point when the play loose and fun part has to take a backseat to getting the job done. And that’s where we are notorious for dropping the ball. The fun of it all stops when someone is trying to take your bone away.
Next 4 Out at #71. Not really a surprise. Middle Tennessee is on the First 4 Out list at #68.
2022 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (4/27/22) (baseballamerica.com)
Lose tonight to UALR and it’s over.
This didn’t age well.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
New projections out for baseball America, still waiting on D1.
3 seed Ft Worth Regional
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-ncaa-baseball-tournament-projected-field-of-64-5422/
Did anyone expect us to take the ODU series though?Quote:
Originally Posted by rlirette
Definitely not after the UALR debacle. If Tech could only play up to their potential and not always more so down to the level of their lesser completion we’d be much better off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Dawg
Of course the NCAA prediction has 2 smaller than top tier conference teams, but good team's, DB & Tech pitted against each other to knock out at least one ASAP.
And D1 drops, 3 seed, last 4 in at LSU
https://d1baseball.com/analysis/2022...ections-may-4/
That would be a tough Regional
I would predict Texas out of that regional easily. LSU is riding reputation only. Beat teams in SEC who aren’t that great but pad their records early.
I would predict Tech out of that regional.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
Of course, such things become moot if we don't win games like tonight.
Padding their records early is exactly right. The SEC all do it. It’s a formula for them to pretty much play all their games at home in the early season then they just beat each other here and there to pass RPI points back and forth until tournament time. It’s a fixed thing. In LSU’s case though it didn’t work to script this year with Tech. I’d love nothing better than a shot to repeat and sweep them 3 for 3. Of course we’ve got our own mandatory work to do before that day comes.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
Is there a site with conference standings for baseball? I have looked all over ESPN and other sites but can't seem to find conference standings. If anyone has a link, it would be appreciated.
I looked on D1baseball...oh well, thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by raam
Best is Warren Nolan -
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2022/index
RPI Needs Report looks rough for Tech, need to go 7-2 to finish top 45 and I’m assuming that means sweeping wku as well.
Louisiana Tech
Remaining: 6 home, 3 road
Current RPI: 37
Top 45:
4 home wins, 3 road wins
5 home wins, 2 road wins
6 home wins, 1 road wins
Top 32:
6 home wins, 3 road wins
Top 16:
No way to reach the threshold.
Top 8:
No way to reach the threshold.
IF we win the next 9 and IF we win a couple games in the CUSA Tournament would a #2 seed in a Regional be the ceiling?
I personally like we go 7-2 in the next 9 games. Dropping one to FAU and one to Charlotte
Tech can run the table through winning the C-USA Tournament, and a high 2 seed (17-24 overall) would still be the ceiling without serious collapses from multiple teams currently in hosting positions. Too many Q3 and Q4 RPI losses (5 combined) is the bottom line.Quote:
Originally Posted by LATECH87
Yeah agreed, no way we host
2 seed is almost completely off the table after this weekend.
Two points of good news for C-USA are:
1) C-USA is now clearly the #5 RPI conference behind the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12. The next 5 are MVC, SBC, AAC, Big Ten, and WCC.
2) All 8 teams currently in C-USA Tournament positions in the standings are in the top 93 of the RPI list--USM 15, ODU 41, Tech 50, MT 51, UTSA 54, Charlotte 83, UAB 86, and FAU 93. Only the SEC (13) and the ACC (12) have more top 93 RPI teams than C-USA (Pac 12 also has 8).
"Playoffs? Playoffs!?" - Jim Mora
Bad midweek set for the conference.
USM loses at home to Ole Miss 4-1 last night.
ODU loses two at home to VCU (8-2) and William and Mary (5-0).
FAU loses at FGCU.
Rice loses two at home to ULL including a 16-6 8-inning run-rule job last night.
Marshall loses at Morehead State.
Only Middle Tennessee got a win against Tennessee Tech.
Current top 8 RPIs:
USM 26, MT 51, Tech 52, ODU 56, UTSA 59, UAB 84, Charlotte 85, FAU 93
Charlotte just won 8-3 at South Carolina. 8-run 5th inning for the 49ers.
Middle Tennessee lost at Vanderbilt 7-2.
Rice beats Houston 5-4 in 12. Western Kentucky wins 10-2 over Bellarmine. Marshall loses again to Morehead State.
RPIs have pretty much settled in for the night. Here are the C-USA Tournament qualifier RPIs as C-USA is a solid #5 in conference RPI--USM 19, UTSA 45, MT 48, ODU 51, Tech 54, Charlotte 69, UAB 93, FAU 98
Never been to Stillwater
16 of the 31 conferences will not be getting any at-large bids with no top 50 RPI teams.
America East, A10, Big South, CAA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, MAC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SLC, SWAC, Summit
6 conferences are likely getting 3 or more bids as indicated in the story linked above unless at-large bids get stolen by the next group.
ACC, Big 12, C-USA, Pac 12, SBC, SEC
That leaves 9 conferences with at least one team in at-large bid range who could get in even without a conference tournament win and possibly allow an at-large bid to be stolen.
AAC--East Carolina (25 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 83
ASun--Liberty (40 RPI) and Kennesaw State (43 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 73. Won't get more than two bids, but still possible to get two not projected in the linked story.
Big East--Connecticut (49 RPI) is on the edge with the next best RPI team at 63.
Big Ten--Maryland (3 RPI) and Rutgers (42 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 58.
Big West--UCSB (38 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 80.
MVC--Dallas Baptist (13 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 75.
Southern--Wofford (32 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 52.
WCC--Gonzaga (27 RPI) with the next best RPI team at 56.
WAC--Grand Canyon (44 PRI) with the next best RPI team at 102 (Sam Houston State).
Based on many of the above RPIs our number would be MUCH better with smart scheduling. We can’t afford to keep playing home and home games just because our coach does not care about RPI. He controls this and if we don’t get an at large it will be totally due to his schedule. This would not be a first for him at Tech.
Have to fill 4 weekend non-conference series and 14 midweek non-conference games.Quote:
Originally Posted by PawDawg
The thing that was better this year was no SWAC schools. That must continue.
ULL and ULM home-and-homes are a given. SLU home-and-home is fine too. We should either keep Tulane as a non-conference weekend or as a home-and-home. New Orleans would be a good pickup for a home-and-home. USM as a weekend or home-and-home should happen. If we could get those I could live with McNeese and NSU midweek home-and-homes. Don't need to burn an OOC weekend with McNeese though.
If Tulane and USM are scheduled as weekends with the other six as home-and-homes, that would leave two weekends and just two other midweek games.
Need to keep LSU on the schedule, but I don't know if a home-and-hone will happen any time soon again. We will probably see Nicholls because of Silva being head coach there, and one game only like this year would not be terrible. Little Rock should either be dropped or limited to one game.
I like seeing our inclusion in the field of 64, but I can't help but worry about "the other shoe falling." It always seems that way for Tech. Will a couple of wins this week cement our slot in the NCAAs?
We played 19 games vs. in-state opponents (13-6), but avoided Grambling and Southern. Sometimes SU is a fairly decent team, but GSU never is, and while it would be neighborly to play them, just can't afford the RPI knock. YES!!!!!!! playing USM is a major no-brainer. We should play them at least twice every year, and 3 times would be better. Playing ULL, LSU, Tulane are also no-brainers, and a mix of other in-state schools, in the right proportions is okay too.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Should be in for sure if Tech gets to Sunday.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
Being eliminated in the second pool championship game on Saturday (2-2 or 3-2 record) might be enough if bid-stealing doesn't get out of hand.
Getting eliminated any earlier than a second game Saturday could make things very iffy.
One thing is for certain. If any school on the bubble goes 0-2 their chances of making the field are almost none.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
The Committee has made that clear in the past.
This -Quote:
Originally Posted by The Historian
Except probably an ACC or SEC school. Those rigid standards don’t necessarily apply to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden
I know it’s apples to oranges, baseball to softball, but LSU softball was one and done in the SEC tournament then was 2 and through in their regional meanwhile the Techsters who had a better seasonal record, won the conference outright and showed better in the CUSA tournament never got a chance.
Preferential treatment is a real thing and don’t think for a second that it isn’t.
Yes they do - if they are a bubble team and go "2 and que" they are left out -Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
Unlike the basketball at-large selections, baseball is usually pretty open and predictable
It does apply to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
For schools truly on the bubble - RPIs in the mid 30s through the mid 50s - going 0-2 gets you left home.
No matter who you are.
To give an example of going 0-2 and not getting in...
In 2019 the bubble completely fell apart. A host of bubble teams lost their way out of the tournament.
All Texas State and Tech needed to do was win one game in their respective conference tournaments and we were in.
Tech had an RPI in the 40s going into the CUSA tournament with 34 wins and the anchor of the tornado aftermath hanging around us. The Committee was aware of it and was prepared to put us into the field if we could do anything at all in the tournament. We went 2 and que. The little shortstop from Marshall made the incredible play in extra innings and denied us a win. We also lost a heartbreaker to Rice. That ended our season.
Texas State was the Belt's regular season champion. The were 36-18 going into the Belt tourney with an RPI in the upper 30s. They lost to Coastal Carolina and ULM. 2 and que. And their season was over.
Both Tech and Texas State had really good metrics against other bubble teams. It didn't matter at that point.
That led to two schools - TCU and Duke - as surprising adds to the Tournament. The fact is, there was no one else out there.
...and there weren’t any ACC or SEC schools with lesser records and comparable RPIs that got in? You can’t seriously believe that when it comes to a coin toss type moment that the bigger conferences and more recognizable school don’t get a special wink and nod.
I don’t even think the RPI is entirely fair. Even if it is kind of sort of, the bigger conferences fix their RPIs with early season heavy home schedules. Playing 20 of their first 23 games at home is a pretty sure bet to get a big head start on a winning record, a national ranking and a higher RPI. After that all they have to do is not have a major collapse. The system may be the best there is, but it’s not the best it could be. It just benefits the big boys the best while maybe giving everyone else a few crumbs here and there.
For Tech's situation this week, I agree that 2-and-done would almost certainly end this season without a second thought.
1-2 might not be enough unless there are no more than a couple of stolen bids or the bubble totally collapses like 2019.
2-2 or 3-2 but not getting to Sunday just might be enough unless almost every possible bid that could be stolen is stolen.
Getting to Sunday should be more than enough even without winning it all.
Another factor that needs to be considered is the possible weather Wednesday and Thursday. This tournament could be reduced to single elimination in the worst-case weather scenarios. If Tech gets to play Wednesday and loses, there might not be a second chance.
RPI for baseball is much better than the NET is for basketball.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg
Update on the potential bid-stealing conferences.
AAC--East Carolina (18 RPI) won its opener yesterday and has a winner's bracket game vs Cincinnati tomorrow.
ASun--Liberty (39 RPI) has won its first two round-robin games and has clinched a semifinal bid. Kennesaw State (53 RPI) has lost its two round-robin games and must win tomorrow to have any chance of staying alive.
Big East--Tournament starts Thursday. Connecticut (50 RPI) is on the edge.
Big Ten--Tournament start pushed back to Thursday. Maryland (3 RPI) and Rutgers (43 RPI).
Big West--UCSB (38 RPI) has clinched the NCAA bid. No conference tournament.
MVC--Dallas Baptist (12 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
Southern--Wofford (30 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
WCC--Gonzaga (26 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
WAC--Grand Canyon (44 RPI) is playing its first game tonight.
Thanks for taking the effort to do this list. I want some of these teams to steal some bids and keep Ole Miss out all together. I also want C-USA to get 4 teams in.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
The teams listed would be getting automatic bids. Too many teams in this group losing would open the door for bid-stealers. Too many of those and C-USA might not get 3 bids.Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthernMiss3613
Grand Canyon did win late last night.
Updated that the Big West does not have a tournament and UCSB has clinched first place.
Middle Tennessee is playing its way out. 3 bids max for C-USA.
And add Alabama to the bid-stealers list.
I didn't think MTSU was even on the bubble.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
7) Southern Miss in
45, 46, 47) Tech, ODU, UTSA
If Tech/ODU/UTSA each get 2 wins in the tourney, then I think they should slide in to NCAAs.
D1 previously had all 4 in, but UTSA slid out today (they didn't play and Bama slid in).
I think y'all are in if you win 1 more game. Regardless of what happens around the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
D1 Baseball is listing the teams below on the Bubble as of this morning (if there are no bid stealers then 6 of the list would make the field)
I've added a few notes to the basics for each school.
-----------------------------------
I think Alabama might have played their way into the field, while Ole Miss probably played their way out of the field.
Iowa, Pitt, and ULL are long shots as at-large participants. Iowa lost this morning and their RPI tanked.
Clemson needs a win over Va Tech tonight in the worst way.
UTSA needs a win over USM in the worst way.
Hard for Penn to get an at-large as Ivy League is the 17th rated conference, and Penn was swept in the championship series by Columbia.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
The D1 Bubble as of 5/26.
- Rutgers 43 RPI, 41-14, 17-7 (T2nd) plays their first game today (losing record against Q1. Just 1-3)
- Louisiana Tech 45 RPI, 39-18, 20-10 (2nd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- Alabama 41 RPI, 31-25, 12-17 (11th) – 2-0 in SEC Tournament (losing record against Q1; just 12-17 in conference but has 4 consecutive wins vs. Q1).
- Old Dominion 46 RPI, 39-15, 19-11 (T3rd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- Ole Miss 39 RPI, 32-22, 14-16 (T8th) – 0-1 in SEC Tournament – Regular season complete (losing record against Q1. Just 8-13. Lost 3 of 4 to end season, including a home series to A&M).
- Clemson 33 RPI, 35-22, 13-16 (T11th) – 0-1 in ACC Tournament (losing record against Q1; 5-5 in their last 10. Looked terrible against UNC last night)
- UTSA 48 RPI, 35-19, 19-11 (T3rd) – beat FAU to open tourney (losing record against Q1; but beat USM 2 of 3 on road).
- Iowa 58 RPI, 32-16, 17-7 (T2nd) – playing their first game now (RPI is now 65; they're gone)
- San Diego 54 RPI, 33-18, 17-10 (3rd) – 1-0 in WCC Tournament (3rd place team in the 10th rated RPI conference. 7-6 record against Q1 but lost 2 of 3 to Gonzaga at home to end the regular season. Big game tonight against Portland, the 2nd place finisher.)
- Penn 55 RPI, 17-4 (1st) – Swept in Ivy League Championship Series – Regular season complete (The Ivy league is the 17th rated conference. Losing record against Q1. But beat Texas A&M 2 of 3 in CS).
- Pittsburgh 65 RPI, 29-26, 13-16 (T11th) – 2-0 in ACC Tournament (losing record against Q1; barely a winning record overall).
- Louisiana 59 RPI, 33-21, 19-11 (4th) – Opens Sun Belt Tournament Friday (Cajuns just 4-10 against Q1; Sun Belt already has 3 solidly in the field).
Great I hope that is true about Ole Miss, but I feel like they will still get in. Just having that sec patch seems to make a world of difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Historian
MTSU could have played their way onto the bubble with a deep run. But allowing 83 runs in 6 games leaves absolutely no doubt.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportdawg
Outscored 40-7 in about 24 hours....makes me smile :DQuote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
Kendall Rogers says we’re a lock now.
Would still like to be playing on Sunday for style points.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEarmada
Update on the other 8 conferences with potential bids to be stolen if the top RPI team does not win the tournament.
AAC--East Carolina (19 RPI) has advanced to the semifinals on Saturday.
ASun--Liberty (35 RPI) plays EKU Friday in one semifinal. Kennesaw State (51 RPI) plays Lipscomb in the other semifinal. Championship game is Saturday.
Big East--Connecticut (48 RPI) is in a winner's bracket game on Saturday.
Big Ten--Maryland (4 RPI) and Rutgers (43 RPI) both won their first round-robin pool play games on Thursday.
MVC--Dallas Baptist (11 RPI) won its first game on Thursday. Format is 6-team double elimination.
Southern--Wofford (31 RPI) plays its first game Friday after Thursday's rainout.
WCC--Gonzaga (26 RPI) won its first game Thursday.
WAC--Grand Canyon (39 RPI) has advanced to the semifinals Friday night.
Saw a rumor on Twitter that ODU had their bats rejected before our game yesterday. Not that it mattered because our guys were throwing seeds!
Heard the same from some a USM insider.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
I just can't see a coach jeopardizing his job and maybe being banned for life to cheat to win the C-USA tournament.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEarmada
They’ve been cheating...
I need someone to briefly explain what it is about the ODU bats or what they did to their bats that makes them illegal. How can officials or inspectors know? How do the bats get “tested”?Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
I don’t know the answers to that, but it sure seemed like that ball exploded off the bat on that late home run yesterday. Didn’t look like he swung very hard. I know Crigger throws in the 90’s but still…..
I’ve been saying all along since our tournament here last year that something is fishy with OD’s bats. They sound noticeably different than all other bats, the ball explodes off their bats and carries way too far for partial swings by guys who aren’t all that big. But what do I know I’ve only been playing and watching for 60+ years.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/cha...ionTesting.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by LEEDAWG
Noticed that too. It looked like an "excuse me" swing and he didn't finish the swing with both hands on the bat. Looked "not quite right" to me. But I just chalked it up to Crigger throwing a strike, the smart thing to do in that situation, and maybe left one too fat out over the plate.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
He definitely piped that pitch.
Bats are only checked at the start of the tournament, not before every game. Middle Tennessee would disagree with that rumor.Quote:
Originally Posted by techman05
Update on the other 8 conferences with potential bids to be stolen if the top RPI team does not win the tournament.
AAC--East Carolina (17 RPI) has advanced to the semifinals on Saturday.
ASun--Liberty (32 RPI) plays Kennesaw State (48 RPI) in the championship game Saturday. Potential bid-steal if Kennesaw State wins.
Big East--Connecticut (51 RPI) is in a winner's bracket game on Saturday.
Big Ten--Maryland (5 RPI) lost to Michigan late Friday and must win an elimination game over Indiana to reach the semifinals. Rutgers (38 RPI) has advanced to the semifinals on Saturday.
MVC--Dallas Baptist (18 RPI) lost to Evansville 21-2 Friday. DBU plays an elimination game Saturday. Potential bid-steal.
Southern--Wofford (31 RPI) advanced to Saturday's semifinals.
WCC--Gonzaga (26 RPI) lost to San Diego (49 RPI) but won Friday night to stay alive. Gonzaga must beat San Diego twice to win the tournament. Potential bid-steal if San Diego wins.
WAC--Grand Canyon (42 RPI) must beat Abilene Christian Saturday to advance to meet New Mexico State in Saturday's championship game. Potential bid-steal.
Thank you. I guess goes to how how bad MTSU pitching was and how good ours was vs ODU.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dowty
Kennesaw State wins the ASUN championship game to steal a bid.
But while 1 bid was stolen...
Alabama and West Virginia, two of D1 Baseball's last 4 in, both lose and their RPIs both tank. Alabama at 47. West Virginia at 48.
Kentucky may have just stolen a bid by beating LSU. That may be the nail in Alabama's coffin. Kentucky's RPI is now 50 with a game against Tennessee to come.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Historian
Update on the other 8 conferences with potential bids to be stolen if the top RPI team does not win the tournament.
AAC--East Carolina (15 RPI) vs Houston (79 RPI) in the championship game Sunday.
ASun--Kennesaw State gets the automatic bid by beating Liberty 10-6 in the ASun championship game. Bid stolen. Liberty is at 33 RPI with that loss and still likely gets an at-large.
Big East--Connecticut (48 RPI) plays Xavier (61 RPI) in the championship round. Connecticut needs just one win while Xavier needs two wins. Big East probably now only gets the auto-bid winner.
Big Ten--Maryland (9 RPI) has been eliminated. Rutgers (38 RPI) must win one of two from Indiana (101 RPI) to reach the championship game. Iowa (58 RPI) and Michigan (69 RPI) also alive.
MVC--Bid will be stolen. Dallas Baptist (22 RPI) has been eliminated. Southern Illinois (65 RPI) must win one of two over Missouri State (102 RPI) to win the championship.
Southern--Wofford (30 RPI) only needs one win in the championship round Sunday.
WCC--San Diego gets the automatic bid. Bid stolen. Gonzaga (27 RPI) lost to San Diego (46 RPI).
WAC--Bid will be stolen if GCU can hang on for an at-large (no guarantee). Grand Canyon (51 RPI) lost to Abilene Christian and is eliminated. New Mexico State (229 RPI) won the auto-bid over Abilene Christian.
Additions to the list:
SBC--ULL (54 RPI) must beat Georgia Southern (8 RPI) to steal a bid. Texas State (26 RPI) and Coastal Carolina (31 RPI) should also be in.
Because of stolen bids there are just 4 (maybe 5 because of West Virginia's loss) open spots with several more potential stolen bids in the next 24 hours. But what does the bubble probably look like at the moment?
D1 Baseball believes Clemson and Ole Miss played their way out of the tournament. Alabama also appears to be gone after they lost and their RPI went down to 47. They had West Virginia in the last 4 in this morning, having them now on the bubble, but WVU lost earlier today and their RPI fell 14 spots to 48. Their other metrics don't look good at all.
After a loss and 2 wins in the Big 10 tournament, Iowa's RPI is still sitting at 60. Pitt is losing to NC State 6-2 in the 4th. With the shrinking bubble the only chance the Cajuns have is to win the Belt tourney.
Using the teams D1 baseball listed on 5/26 and given what's transpired so far, the bubble probably looks like this:
- Rutgers 39 RPI, 43-14, 19-7 (T2nd) (losing record against Q1. Still just 1-3)
- Louisiana Tech 43 RPI, 40-19, 21-11 (2nd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- Old Dominion 40 RPI, 41-16, 21-11 (T3rd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- UTSA 35 RPI, 38-19, 21-11 (T3rd) – beat FAU to open tourney (even record against Q1; but beat USM 2 of 3 on road and swept USM in the CUSA tourney to reach the championship game. RPI now at 35).
- San Diego 52 RPI, 35-18, 17-10 (3rd) – (3rd place team in the 10th rated RPI conference. 8-6 record against Q1. Wins over Portland and Gonzaga in the WCC tournament).
- Pittsburgh 62 RPI, 29-26, 13-16 (T11th) – 2-0 in ACC Tournament (losing record against Q1; barely a winning record overall. Must beat NC State to have any shot).
- Kentucky 50 RPI (could play their way in with a win over Tennessee. But losing Q1 record and conference record of 12-18)
- West Virginia 48 RPI (lost to Kansas State and its RPI dropped 14 spots to 49. Record against Q1 is just 6-11).
I predict we make it. :D:D
Going out on a limb. LOL
Updating the bubble. Removing Pitt and San Diego and adding Grand Canyon.
GCU loses back to back games to Abilene Christian and its RPI drops to 51. The Committee is going to have a decision to make. Does it award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from a conference with the 19th rated RPI, the WAC?
San Diego wins the WCC with a win a second win over Gonzaga.
Pitt loses to NC State 8-3.
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The Bubble (given the stolen bids thus far there are perhaps 4 or 5 open spots)
- Rutgers 39 RPI, 43-14, 19-7 (T2nd) (losing record against Q1. Still just 1-3)
- Louisiana Tech 37 RPI, 41-19, 22-11 (2nd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- Old Dominion 42 RPI, 41-18, 22-12 (T3rd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- UTSA 35 RPI, 38-19, 21-11 (T3rd) – beat FAU to open tourney (even record against Q1; but beat USM 2 of 3 on road and swept USM in the CUSA tourney to reach the championship game. RPI now at 35).
- Kentucky 50 RPI (could play their way in with a win over Tennessee. But losing Q1 record and conference record of 12-18)
- West Virginia 48 RPI (lost to Kansas State and its RPI dropped 14 spots to 49. Record against Q1 is just 6-11).
- Grand Canyon 51 RPI (lost back to back games to Abilene Christian; RPI droped to 51. Does the committee award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from the 19th ranked conference).
ULL just eliminated ranked Texas State and will now play Ga. Southern tomorrow for the autobid. It appears Ga. Southern is already a lock for a berth, as is Texas State. So, the only way there will be a bid-stealer is if ULL wins.
Cajun pitcher threw 142 pitches.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawg80
I watched the last few innings. He went 9 innings and threw all those pitches. I have watched Texas State play several games and I just don't see why they deserve a ranking. They are very mediocre.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Historian
The Bubble this AM. Some changes from last night. There are 4, perhaps 5 spots up for grabs.
- Kentucky loses to Tennessee, which leaves the Wildcats on the bubble.
- GCU is on the bubble after losing back to back games to Abilene Christian and seeing its RPI drop to 51. The Committee is going to have a decision to make. Does it award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from a conference, the WAC, with the 19th rated RPI? GCU has a winning 7-5 record against the Q1, and their non-conference SOS is 9, both of which bolster their case.
- I've still left Iowa off the bubble. They've now won 3 games in the Big 10 tournament, but their RPI has barely moved. They're now at 58. They'll have to beat Michigan this morning and then Rutgers this afternoon to earn the Big 10's auto bid. In looking at their resume I don't see how they get in as an at large over some of their competition. The same might be true of Rutgers. They have just one Q1 win all season, but their RPI still puts them on the bubble.
- UCLA is not on the bubble. D1 Baseball has had UCLA in the tournament for weeks. They're not a bubble team. They're projected as a 2 seed with a Q1 record of 13-4.
- UL-Lafayette is also not on the bubble. Their Q1 record is 5-10, and the Belt has 3 teams solidly in the field. The Cajuns are going to have to beat Georgia Southern today to earn the Belt's auto bid. They're going to have to become a bid thief.
- West Virginia is on the bubble after a loss to Kansas State and an RPI drop of 15 spots to 50. The loss exposed their Q1 record of 6-11.
- D1 Baseball has Dallas Baptist on the bubble, given the Missouri Valley tournament performance and Liberty on the bubble given their tournament performance and losing Q1 record.
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- Alabama and Ole Miss are part of D1 Baseball's First 4 out.
The Bubble (given the stolen bids thus far there are perhaps 4 or 5 open spots)
- Rutgers 38 RPI, 43-14, 19-7 (T2nd) (losing record against Q1. Still just 1-3)
- Louisiana Tech 37 RPI, 41-19, 22-11 (2nd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- Old Dominion 42 RPI, 41-18, 22-12 (T3rd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
- UTSA 35 RPI, 38-19, 21-11 (T3rd) – beat FAU to open tourney (even record against Q1; but beat USM 2 of 3 on road and swept USM in the CUSA tourney to reach the championship game. RPI now at 35).
- Kentucky 52 RPI (on the bubble after losing to Tennessee 12-2. But losing Q1 record and conference record of 12-18)
- West Virginia 50 RPI (lost to Kansas State and its RPI dropped 15 spots to 49. Record against Q1 is just 6-11).
- Grand Canyon 51 RPI (lost back to back games to Abilene Christian; RPI droped to 51. Does the committee award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from the 19th ranked conference. Winning Q1 record. Non-Conference SOS of 9).
- Dallas Baptist 22 RPI, 34-22 (13-9 Q1 record. On D1's bubble after losing to Evansville and SIU in the Missouri Valley Tournament.
- Liberty 33 RPI, 37-21 (7-11 Q1 Record. Lost to Kennesaw State in the ASUN Championship game).
- Alabama 47 RPI, 31-27 (losing Q1 Record and a 12-18 conference record)
- Ole Miss 40 RPI, 32-22 (8-13 losing Q1 Record)
I've made some changes to my previous post. D1 Baseball now believes Dallas Baptist and Liberty are on the bubble given their tournament performances. Although, I find it hard to believe Dallas Baptist isn't squarely in the field with an RPI of 22 and a Q1 record of 13-9.
Liberty is the more interesting case. Their loss the Kennesaw State exposed the fact their Q1 record is just 7-11.
D1 also has Alabama and Ole Miss as part of their First Four Out. I've included them on the Bubble here, but I think they are likely gone.
Dallas Baptist went 11-9-1 in the MVC regular season and went only 1-2 in the tournament (12-11-1 MVC aggregate). 3-5-1 in its last 9 games is not the way to earn a bid if it is close.
Rutgers beat Indiana to earn a Big Ten championship game spot against the Iowa-Michigan winner. Rutgers moved to 37 RPI and bumped Tech down to 38 for the moment.
UNCG leads Wofford 4-1 in the first SoCon championship game. Wofford needs just one win today while UNCG must win two.
Connecticut wins the Big East bid.
UNCG wins 10-2 over Wofford to force a winner-take-all final game in the SoCon.
Southern Illinois beats Missouri State 9-6 to force a winner-take-all game for the MVC auto-bid.
ECU won the AAC bid and probably locked up a regional host.
ULL steals a bid by beating Georgia Southern 7-6.
Wofford is losing to UNCG 7-2 after 4.
Michigan beat Iowa 13-1 in 7. Rutgers vs Michigan for the Big Ten bid. Iowa off the bubble.
UNCG (101 RPI) leads Wofford 11-2 in the bottom of the 6th. ODU needs a Wofford win in the worst way.
Missouri State leads SIU 10-2 in the top of the 7th for the MVC bid.
We don't have to sweat the bubble this time...first time, in a LONG time too!
UNCG beats Wofford 12-2 by run-rule to win the SoCon championship.
Wofford drops to 35 in Live RPI. UNCG steals a bid at 93.
If ODU wasn't sweating when ULL won, they should be now.
The UL-L dirty Cajuns finally helped.Quote:
Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
As of right now there are 20 automatic bid winners with RPIs at 53 or worse. Michigan would make 21 if it holds on to beat Rutgers.
Conference--Automatic Bid RPI
SEC--Tennessee 1
ACC--North Carolina 3
American Athletic--East Carolina 8
Conference USA--Louisiana Tech 33
Big East--Connecticut 43
Big West--UC Santa Barbara 44
West Coast--San Diego 45
ASUN--Kennesaw State 48
Sun Belt--ULL 53
Ivy League--Columbia 54
Atlantic 10--VCU 55
Big South--Campbell 58
Ohio Valley--Southeast Missouri 63
Mid-American Central Michigan 68
Southern--UNCG 93
Missouri Valley--Missouri State 96
The Summit League--Oral Roberts 104
Southland--Southeastern Louisiana 106
Mountain West--Air Force 107
Colonial Athletic--Hofstra 117
Northeast--Long Island 134
Horizon League--Wright State 144
Patriot League--Army 153
MAAC--Canisius 169
SWAC--Alabama State 192
America East--Binghamton 215
Western Athletic--New Mexico State 229
MEAC--Coppin State 284
Three bids still remain to be decided:
Big 12--Oklahoma (24 RPI) 8 Texas (11 RPI) 1 bottom 8th
Big Ten--Michigan (65 RPI) 5 Rutgers (37 RPI) 2 top 7th
Pac 12--Stanford (4 RPI) vs Oregon State (2 RPI)