Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	81	89
Sag Rat	66.16	64.20
Pred W-L	9-3	9-3
Pred W-L	0.750	0.750
Home Adv	2.47	2.47
OOC Rk	90	91
Conf Rk	122	121
Conf Opp Rk	130	130

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	2.00			W	76.36	1.00
	109	UAB	59.94	-21.00			L	41.51	0.00
@	149	UTSA	50.65	28.00			W	78.65	1.00
	185	UTEP	42.66	7.00			W	52.13	1.00
@	103	FAU	60.04	1.69	W	0.21			0.54
@	16	MSU	83.82	-22.09	L	-0.88			0.00
	188	Rice	40.90	25.77	W	-2.41			1.00
@	117	USM	57.55	4.18	W	-1.77			0.60
	140	WKU	52.60	14.07	W	-1.15			0.85

In terms of overall game quality, this isn't even the worst we've played. Keep in mind that the Sagarin line for this game was nearly 26.

Rk	C-USA
60	North Texas
70	UAB
87	Marshall
89	Louisiana Tech
100	Fla. International
103	Florida Atlantic
109	Middle Tennessee
117	Southern Miss
140	Western Kentucky
145	Old Dominion
153	Charlotte
156	UTSA
181	UTEP
188	Rice

Rice is improving! We better watch out.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	89	87
Sag Rat	64.20	64.77
Pred W-L	9-3	9-3
Pred W-L	0.750	0.750
Home Adv	2.47	2.43
OOC Rk	91	90
Conf Rk	121	123
Conf Opp Rk	130	132

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	2.00			W	76.36	1.00
	109	UAB	59.94	-21.00			L	41.51	0.00
@	149	UTSA	50.65	28.00			W	78.65	1.00
	185	UTEP	42.66	7.00			W	52.13	1.00
@	103	FAU	60.04	8.00			W	68.04	1.00
@	13	MSU	84.51	-22.17	L	-0.08			0.00
	189	Rice	41.79	25.41	W	-0.36			1.00
@	125	USM	56.40	5.94	W	1.76			0.65
	147	WKU	50.39	16.81	W	2.74			0.92

Rk	C-USA
63	North Texas
71	UAB
87	Louisiana Tech
90	Marshall
99	Fla. International
102	Middle Tennessee
107	Florida Atlantic
125	Southern Miss
145	Charlotte
147	Western Kentucky
157	UTSA
159	Old Dominion
182	UTEP
189	Rice

Good morning to everyone except Skip Holtz.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	87	94
Sag Rat	64.77	63.18
Pred W-L	9-3	9-3
Pred W-L	0.750	0.750
Home Adv	2.43	2.44
OOC Rk	90	90
Conf Rk	123	125
Conf Opp Rk	132	134

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	2.00			W	76.36	1.00
	109	UAB	59.94	-21.00			L	41.51	0.00
@	149	UTSA	50.65	28.00			W	78.65	1.00
	185	UTEP	42.66	7.00			W	52.13	1.00
@	103	FAU	60.04	8.00			W	68.04	1.00
@	13	MSU	84.51	-42.00			L	42.51	0.00
	196	Rice	40.43	25.19	W	-0.22			1.00
@	121	USM	57.24	5.10	W	-0.84			0.63
	155	WKU	49.40	17.80	W	0.99			0.95

Rk	C-USA
63	UAB
65	North Texas
93	Marshall
94	Louisiana Tech
96	Florida Atlantic
102	Middle Tennessee
111	Fla. International
121	Southern Miss
146	Charlotte
155	Western Kentucky
157	Old Dominion
165	UTSA
179	UTEP
196	Rice

This ranking, us at 94, is all Division I schools, FCS & FBS? If so, how many schools is that? There's 132 in FBS, or something close to that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dawg80

This ranking, us at 94, is all Division I schools, FCS & FBS? If so, how many schools is that? There's 132 in FBS, or something close to that.

---

255. You will notice that all of our remaining opponents are near or below #130 (which, theoretically, is the lowest FBS), which will make the loss to USM sting more than usual.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

255. You will notice that all of our remaining opponents are near or below #130 (which, theoretically, is the lowest FBS), which will make the loss to USM sting more than usual.

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I don't expect to beat USM.

WKU concerns me. They are more like a 3-5 or 4-4 type CUSA team. Not very good, but not as bad as their record either. Eckels, their regular starter at QB, returned after suffering an early season injury. He looked okay at times, and not so good, vs. MTSU the other night. If he stays healthy he should be back in form by the time we play them. WKU also has a good defense.

I expect to beat Rice, but it won't be a blowout like it should be. More like 31-20. Lackluster, "did enough not to lose" type of performance.

In the bigger picture, how can anyone with an ounce of pride be satisfied with being ranked 94th? :icon_roll:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dawg80

I don't expect to beat USM.

WKU concerns me. They are more like a 3-5 or 4-4 type CUSA team. Not very good, but not as bad as their record either. Eckels, their regular starter at QB, returned after suffering an early season injury. He looked okay at times, and not so good, vs. MTSU the other night. If he stays healthy he should be back in form by the time we play them. WKU also has a good defense.

I expect to beat Rice, but it won't be a blowout like it should be. More like 31-20. Lackluster, "did enough not to lose" type of performance.

In the bigger picture, how can anyone with an ounce of pride be satisfied with being ranked 94th? :icon_roll:

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Honestly, I'm not sure I expect to beat Rice. I think at the end of the game we might have more points than they do. But I don't expect to win, if that makes sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

Honestly, I'm not sure I expect to beat Rice. I think at the end of the game we might have more points than they do. But I don't expect to win, if that makes sense.

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If Rice plays LA Tech the way they did UNT, they will punish our QB. UNT's QB (Mason Fine) is at least 100 times more mobile than J'Mar, and they still got to him and did some physical damage. Better not sleep on Rice.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	94	102
Sag Rat	63.18	61.81
Pred W-L	9-3	9-3
Pred W-L	0.750	0.750
Home Adv	2.44	2.41
OOC Rk	90	90
Conf Rk	125	125
Conf Opp Rk	134	133

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	2.00			W	76.36	1.00
	109	UAB	59.94	-21.00			L	41.51	0.00
@	149	UTSA	50.65	28.00			W	78.65	1.00
	185	UTEP	42.66	7.00			W	52.13	1.00
@	103	FAU	60.04	8.00			W	68.04	1.00
@	13	MSU	84.51	-42.00			L	42.51	0.00
	196	Rice	40.43	15.00			W	57.84	1.00
@	115	USM	58.28	1.12	W	-2.38			0.53
	156	WKU	49.80	14.42	W	-1.80			0.86

We only have a 53% chance to win the Rivalry in Dixie, with a -1.15 line. If we lose, we will lose any shot at a 10 win season. So, we will lose.

Rk	C-USA
69	UAB
76	North Texas
91	Marshall
94	Florida Atlantic
99	Middle Tennessee
102	Louisiana Tech
106	Fla. International
115	Southern Miss
148	Old Dominion
149	Charlotte
156	Western Kentucky
175	UTSA
181	UTEP
192	Rice

Why are we ranked so far behind FAU and UNT?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dowty

Why are we ranked so far behind FAU and UNT?

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I don't know specifics but we have played extremely poorly and not even come close to covering the spread on many of our games against very poorly rated opponents. I'm not sure about them but that would be my first guess.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Blue Dawg

I don't know specifics but we have played extremely poorly and not even come close to covering the spread on many of our games against very poorly rated opponents. I'm not sure about them but that would be my first guess.

---

I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dowty

I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.

---

Tbf is it any worse than UNT not beating the spread on UTEP and then losing to ODU?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dowty

I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.

---

Thats just my guess. But I suspect that's part of it. I track the "quality" of the games, essentially this is a measure of how well we match the spread. You want this all in the 80 range. Really good games or upsets will be higher (the Wichita State game for the Dunkin Dawgs was about 92). Whereas our games are usually in the 50-60 range, with a few in the 40s. That's bad.

Surprisingly, we didn't drop.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	102	102
Sag Rat	61.81	61.61
Pred W-L	9-3	8-4
Pred W-L	0.750	0.667
Home Adv	2.41	2.33
OOC Rk	90	90
Conf Rk	125	123
Conf Opp Rk	133	132
Average Q	62.15	61.70

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	2.00			W	76.36	1.00
	109	UAB	59.94	-21.00			L	41.51	0.00
@	149	UTSA	50.65	28.00			W	78.65	1.00
	185	UTEP	42.66	7.00			W	52.13	1.00
@	103	FAU	60.04	8.00			W	68.04	1.00
@	13	MSU	84.51	-42.00			L	42.51	0.00
	196	Rice	40.43	15.00			W	57.84	1.00
@	115	USM	58.28	-1.00			L	57.28	0.00
	151	WKU	51.21	12.73	W	-1.69			0.82

Rk	C-USA
73	UAB
75	North Texas
84	Marshall
95	Florida Atlantic
97	Middle Tennessee
102	Louisiana Tech
103	Fla. International
110	Southern Miss
137	Old Dominion
149	Charlotte
151	Western Kentucky
175	UTSA
183	UTEP
185	Rice