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Sag Rat

Yes. It's taken a bit longer than usual because I'm at a conference in Tampa. Should have it up this afternoon or earlier.

This is starting to get depressing.




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91/254

But out of FBS, definitely. Interesting to see the handful of FCS programs ranked above us.

39, North Dakota St
70, James Madison
74, Youngstown St (Bo Pelini)
75, South Dakota St...

What a fall from grace. No chance now to get to 10 wins. Somehow though, the rest of CUSA sucks so bad that we're still technically favored. Guess Sagarin hasn't actually seen the Bulldogs "play."
...

It's statistics. And they have some fairly unbiased stuff tbf.

Keep an eye on this page as well:

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-louisiana-tech-advanced-statistical-profile

We are rated very poorly in nearly every category. I haven't compared...

UTSA jumps to the front of the line. We're still favored but not by much. Straight up, we're still favored to win 10. Mathematically, those chances have dropped to about 8%. The most likely scenario...

We rise to last week's spot, while WKU falls to just above us.




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Be aware of the limitations of Elo.

We dropped from 1300 last season to 1163 after the loss (applying regression to the mean > 1225, then a 62-point drop for the loss). That makes it the 3rd worst...

There was a lot of movement in the upcoming lines this week. The most interesting was the fact that our cumulative chances of 10 wins (regular season) have dropped from 1% to well below. Our chances...

Fresno's fall has been precipitous and I love it.

We drop a few spots after not beating NWSt by as much as we should have. Something closer to a 40 point win would probably have kept us steady (I keep a measure of game quality in the schedule list,...

That's true of any ranking. Although - Sagarin correctly picked every game last year except for WKU, and that was the initial rankings. Just saying.

I do understand that these are computer rankings. But even those have bias: my own rankings have bias, and are usually too favorable to teams who win a lot against cupcakes. Before redoing my SoS...

They don't read past "not Cartel 5" and just pencil in 1-3. If we go 1-3 against that group it's going to be a long year, I think. We have the stones to go at least 2-2 if Skip will let us, and 3-1...

We won 9 games last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. We're predicted to win 9 games this year.

Despite this, Sagarin ranks us #74. That's just disrespectful.




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