Let me try again.
My Philosophy: Outs are a very valuable, scarce resource. Offenses should never voluntarily give away outs unless it helps them score more runs. Managers should put their players in the best situation to score the most runs because runs win games. The goal for each hitter should be to get on base without recording an out. This is what OBP measures and why it is the most important statistic. It's also why I think Austin Hedges should be our lead-off hitter. Hitting him 5th instead of 1st costs him about 3 at-bats per week. And it's why I think Alvis should be our starting CF and why I think Kimbell and Neel should split infield duties at 3B (or Neel at 2B with Hedges at 3B).
Derived from Boyd's World Expected Runs Table for NCAA Division I Baseball from 2005-2008
Outs
|
Runners
|
Expected
|
At least 1 run
|
Expected after bunt success
|
At least 1 run after bunt success
|
|
1st |
1.10 runs
|
52%
|
0.84 runs
|
48%
|
| 1 |
1st |
0.65 runs
|
34%
|
0.39 runs
|
27%
|
|
2nd |
1.39 runs
|
69%
|
1.08 runs
|
70%
|
| 1 |
2nd |
0.84 runs
|
48%
|
0.44 runs
|
31%
|
|
1st & 2nd |
1.83 runs
|
72%
|
1.59 runs
|
75%
|
| 1 |
1st & 2nd |
1.16 runs
|
51%
|
0.73 runs
|
35%
|
According to the data, the only situations in which bunting makes sense are:
- No outs with a runner on 2nd
- No outs with runners on 1st and 2nd
BUT only if the game situation dictates that you will only need 1 run because the expected runs for the inning goes down. Basically the only situation bunting becomes beneficial is late in a game when the game is tied or facing a 1-run deficit, and if you don't trust your pitcher(s), then it the only time you should sac bunt is in the bottom of the 9th. The coach should also be very confident that the bunter can get the bunt down. Even in those situations, the benefit of bunting is extremely small (1% and 3%). It is also important to note that those two best case bunting situations decrease the team's expected runs by about a quarter of a run (0.31 runs and 0.24 runs). I have said that I would consider bunting against a dominant pitcher and with poor hitters who can get a bunt down, and I think the safety squeeze can be beneficial if your guy at the plate can bunt.
Moreover, those numbers only hold true if the sac bunt is successful. There is no way for me to know this without analyzing the video of every one of our games, but I'd venture to guess that Tech's successful sac bunt percentage is less than 50%. Our team on-base percentage without recording an out is currently .377 (errors by the defense count against this number as if an out was recorded). This is my counter to your assertion that I haven't addressed the situation in which a sac bunter gets on base. As I said a couple times before, a hitter swinging away has a better chance to get on base without creating an out than someone who is sac bunting, and swinging away gives the hitter a better opportunity to advance themselves past 1st base than someone who is sac bunting. It's that simple. You also brought up that bunting puts pressure on the defense which causes them to make some errors. Well so does hitting away! Any time you put the ball in play the defense has the potential to make an error. That is irrelevant.
Moreover, this analysis slightly depresses the differences in any particular situational perspective. For instance, the runner on 1st with no outs stats include the runner on 2nd with 1 out situations caused by sac bunts, and from the data we know that the latter situation scores fewer runs than the former situation. Basically if there were fewer sac bunts, we would see the situational scoring gaps grow larger.
This data also shows us that in general attempting to steal bases is also detrimental to scoring runs, and the data also shows supports the conventional wisdom to never make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base. From this table, I can show you why Corey White should be our only player allowed to steal. I'll save those discussions for later in the season.
BTW I think fans appreciate winning more than they appreciate successful sac bunting. The ovation for Burch may have had a hint of sarcasm for some as a reaction to our inability to get a bunt down. Kinda like the ovation a basketball ref gets after he finally calls the 1st team foul on the other team 10 minutes into the half after they've charged your team with several fouls. Anyway, our guys also get nice ovations for home runs. FYI we tried 3 bunts in that DBU game. Two were successful, and only 1 eventually led to only 1 run. We gave up 3 precious outs for 1 run that we most likely would have scored anyway (and likely would have scored even more by swinging away). We just got lucky that DBU only scored 1 run. Regardless, the fans' ovation and appreciation of anything but wins should be irrelevant.
3/27 Northwestern State at LA Tech
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Originally Posted by techblue4
