Before anyone begins to write the Big East's obituary just yet, separate the banter from the facts:
- The Big East is not going to fall apart with the basketball schools leaving in a huff. The NCAA has made it far too difficult to start a conference from scratch, and the all-sports members will not just let the Big East name and brand walk away.
- John Marinatto was fired as Big East commissioner partly because the basketball schools want a deal with ESPN, rather than NBC/Comcast, and partly because they want a cut of the deal above and beyond the basketball portion of the deal itself. At the same time, there still appears to be tremendous TV money on the table.
- Regarding the TV contract - according to Memphis outgoing AD RC Johnson, the deal NBC/Comcast is proposing will pay "in the teens" even with the defection of Syracuse and Pitt. The basketball schools want that same type of money from ESPN, which is unlikely. Couple what Johnson said to what was in the New York Times earlier this week "Neal Pilson, a media consultant and former president of CBS Sports, predicted that the Big East could surpass the deal it turned down last year, which was similar in value to the ACC's $155 million annual deal. 'I think if they stay together and negotiate as a single unit, I think they can come away with a reasonably favorable result,' Pilson said. 'Even more than what ESPN offered a year and a half ago. I think the competition will drive it.'
- I disagree with McMurphy on this point when he says he has a source that the deal will be lower than the one ESPN offered. Many suspect McMurphy's main source on realignment is Craig Thompson. Thompson would have a great deal of motivation to downplay the Big East's prospects at a fairly lucrative contract.
- AQ status going away in 2014 really doesn't mean anything when schools like Boise have to make decisions about conferences. Even if the new deal were to pay every FBS school or every FBS conference a minimum amount of dollars, the Big East will have the same or greater minimum than CUSA or the MWC. So the differences in the TV contracts will be what drives a school to seek membership in the Big East or leave the Big East.
- Boise State is in talks with the Mountain West about remaining in the league, but that's because they fear they won't be able to find a home for their Olympic sports, not that the Big East will fall apart or that the Big East's TV contract will fall to almost nothing. In fact, they want into the Big East so badly that earlier this week it was revealed they have asked the Big East for help in securing a conference home for their Olympic sports.