Boise State having second thoughts on Big East move?

[The Historian]

Before anyone begins to write the Big East's obituary just yet, separate the banter from the facts:

• The Big East is not going to fall apart with the basketball schools leaving in a huff. The NCAA has made it far too difficult to start a conference from scratch, and the all-sports members will not just let the Big East name and brand walk away.

• John Marinatto was fired as Big East commissioner partly because the basketball schools want a deal with ESPN, rather than NBC/Comcast, and partly because they want a cut of the deal above and beyond the basketball portion of the deal itself. At the same time, there still appears to be tremendous TV money on the table.

• Regarding the TV contract - according to Memphis outgoing AD RC Johnson, the deal NBC/Comcast is proposing will pay "in the teens" even with the defection of Syracuse and Pitt. The basketball schools want that same type of money from ESPN, which is unlikely. Couple what Johnson said to what was in the New York Times earlier this week "Neal Pilson, a media consultant and former president of CBS Sports, predicted that the Big East could surpass the deal it turned down last year, which was similar in value to the ACC's $155 million annual deal. 'I think if they stay together and negotiate as a single unit, I think they can come away with a reasonably favorable result,' Pilson said. 'Even more than what ESPN offered a year and a half ago. I think the competition will drive it.'

• I disagree with McMurphy on this point when he says he has a source that the deal will be lower than the one ESPN offered. Many suspect McMurphy's main source on realignment is Craig Thompson. Thompson would have a great deal of motivation to downplay the Big East's prospects at a fairly lucrative contract.

• AQ status going away in 2014 really doesn't mean anything when schools like Boise have to make decisions about conferences. Even if the new deal were to pay every FBS school or every FBS conference a minimum amount of dollars, the Big East will have the same or greater minimum than CUSA or the MWC. So the differences in the TV contracts will be what drives a school to seek membership in the Big East or leave the Big East.

• Boise State is in talks with the Mountain West about remaining in the league, but that's because they fear they won't be able to find a home for their Olympic sports, not that the Big East will fall apart or that the Big East's TV contract will fall to almost nothing. In fact, they want into the Big East so badly that earlier this week it was revealed they have asked the Big East for help in securing a conference home for their Olympic sports.

[DONW]

I wonder what conference the Big East will reccomend for Boise to put their olympic sports in.

[DONW]

The Sunbelt????

[The Historian]

I wonder what conference the Big East will reccomend for Boise to put their olympic sports in.

Big East schools could agree to travel to play non-conference basketball games against Big West/Big Sky schools. That's the type of help they would need.

[hookdown]

I think that SMU and Houston will stay together and I do not believe that they will come back to CUSA, ever. The only way they leave the BE is if they get an invite to the Big 12 or they get kicked out(or football confernce disolves). In which case I think they wind up in the MWC, especially if SDSU and Boise go back.

[Designated Hitter]

One would think with all the mess of exits and entries last 2 years to current, couple of ACC could go to Big 12, which would drive ACC to add top couple from Big East, the Big East loses its allure, and people think twice now about that being a stable conference nor as highly respected conference as 5-10 years ago. With what else may be occurring like that scenario, you would think one would be smarter this time.

[parialex]

My take:

1) The only fire to the smoke is that Boise State is talking to the MWC. They'd be stupid not to, even if they have no present intention of staying. I believe the likelihood that they stay is less than 50/50, dependent largely on what the TV contract will look like, but more BE bloodletting and that changes. Contingency plans need to be in place.

2) Louisville would love a Big 12 invite. They would have loved one six months ago. From the second that Pitt and Syracuse left, they've wanted one. It doesn't matter unless they are invited. The article suggests that NOW Louisville REALLY wants out!!!! Well sure, they want out more than before. But it's not up to them. They're unlikely to get an invite by themselves, and I don't see a good consensus #12 for them to receive an invite with. I don't believe any invite from the ACC is forthcoming. I don't know what the likelihood of a Louisville departure is, but people should stop acting like anything going on right now in the Big East matters. It's all dependent on other conferences.

3) It would take a lot of bloodletting before I see UH and SMU reconsidering. And I firmly believe it to be "and", not"or". We will do what SMU does. I find it staggeringly unlikely that we would return without them, and very unlikely that we would stay in the Big East if they decided to bolt (though I think this is actually less unlikely than the other).

4) I agree with Hogdawg about USM. I just don't think it's in the cards. ECU *might* be in the cards because they would accept FBO. UMass football isn't particularly worthwhile and if BSU and SDSU bolt, I don't see another full member. Tulsa also has this problem. Villanova doesn't, and that concerns me.

5) If SDSU and BSU stick with the MWC, the biggest question is what the basketball schools do. Nobody knows that but the basketball schools. If you'd told me a coupe years ago that they would go to the lengths that they have to preserve the football conference, I would have been doubtful. I suspect it depends as much as anything on further departures and the concrete likelihood thereof (not how much Louisville *wants* out, but how likely they are to *get* out). Five of the football members offer really good basketball. It doesn't seem to me that they are going to take their potential departure lightly. Whittle that down to three? That changes the calculations.

6) In the event that there is a split, the most obvious course of action as far as I am concerned is not that members of the Big East would turn back to Conference USA. That would make regrouping easier, rather than more difficult. The most painful scenario, to me, involves the basketball schools trying to have their cake and eat it, too: Villanova.

[KSDAWG]

Realistically we want the BE to hold together for 4 to 5 years giving us a realistic shot when that regroup comes.

[DFWDawg]

Boise has earned their way. It’s up to them. I really hope they stay in the MWC. They were such a good fit there. The thing for Boise is they are no longer considered the underdog. They could be in MWC and still be considered a national title contender. They have proved it. In practical terms they would be better off playing teams in their area. I just cannot see how flying to the east coast for games will be practical. Why give up a good chance at an undefeated season and a BCS bowl to be stuck flying to the east coast? I get why but I don't see how they will win that way. I really hope they succeed. I've rooted for them except for the Tech games.

[VS]

• Regarding the TV contract - according to Memphis outgoing AD RC Johnson, the deal NBC/Comcast is proposing will pay "in the teens" even with the defection of Syracuse and Pitt. The basketball schools want that same type of money from ESPN, which is unlikely. Couple what Johnson said to what was in the New York Times earlier this week "Neal Pilson, a media consultant and former president of CBS Sports, predicted that the Big East could surpass the deal it turned down last year, which was similar in value to the ACC's $155 million annual deal. 'I think if they stay together and negotiate as a single unit, I think they can come away with a reasonably favorable result,' Pilson said. 'Even more than what ESPN offered a year and a half ago. I think the competition will drive it.'

• I disagree with McMurphy on this point when he says he has a source that the deal will be lower than the one ESPN offered. Many suspect McMurphy's main source on realignment is Craig Thompson. Thompson would have a great deal of motivation to downplay the Big East's prospects at a fairly lucrative contract.

$155 million a year is about 9 times more than ESPN paid, essentially, for that collection of football teams when they were called C-USA 10 years ago plus Boise and plus and minus a few solid programs, none of which are huge national names or anything. Some of it is basketball (although C-USA hoops back then was pretty darn good). It may be accurate, who knows, but it doesn't pass the logic test.
Anyway, I hope they get it. Because it likely means the C-USA deal will be 3-4 times higher than it is now.
And their football league won't implode, although it would be good for C-USA to get some nice buyouts squared away and signed so that if their deal does suck and the BE splits, we won't lose teams.

[hisaw]

Pitino may have cost Louisville a big 12 invite. He was adamant that louisville play big east basketball. The big east comissioner even stated that Pitino was the driving force in keeping some schools in. I also believe that Pitino announced he would retire at the end of his current contract. Big east football is untenable as currently constructed, and if they lose any more eastern teams (Louisville and cincinatti included) it cannot survive period.

[parialex]

Ran across this today on the UH pay board. SDSU is working to find Boise State a home. More interesting is this, which I did not know:

SDSU’s contract with the Big East states that if Boise State does not join the Big East as planned, the league will “discuss in good faith” SDSU’s admission into the league as a football-only member.


“For clarity, neither party shall be obligated hereunder in the event that the conference does not have as a member on (July 1, 2013) at least one football-playing institution that is located west of the Rocky Mountains,” the contract states.


That's not only an "out" for SDSU if BSU doesn't join, but also an out for the BE. I don't think SDSU is there but for BSU's benefit. I mean, the market is nice, but not sufficient with all things considered. The question here is now much the Big West wants SDSU. If they want SDSU bad enough, they might have to take Boise because if BSU doesn't settle for the Big Sky and chooses not to go, it seems unlikely that SDSU will go. I really have no idea as to how enthusiastic the Big West is towards SDSU.

[rebelboi]

Ran across this today on the UH pay board. SDSU is working to find Boise State a home. More interesting is this, which I did not know:

SDSU’s contract with the Big East states that if Boise State does not join the Big East as planned, the league will “discuss in good faith” SDSU’s admission into the league as a football-only member.


“For clarity, neither party shall be obligated hereunder in the event that the conference does not have as a member on (July 1, 2013) at least one football-playing institution that is located west of the Rocky Mountains,” the contract states.


That's not only an "out" for SDSU if BSU doesn't join, but also an out for the BE. I don't think SDSU is there but for BSU's benefit. I mean, the market is nice, but not sufficient with all things considered. The question here is now much the Big West wants SDSU. If they want SDSU bad enough, they might have to take Boise because if BSU doesn't settle for the Big Sky and chooses not to go, it seems unlikely that SDSU will go. I really have no idea as to how enthusiastic the Big West is towards SDSU.

I really don't think the Big West cares whether San Diego St stays or not

[Champ967]

SDSU & BSU football to BE.

Other sports to WAC.

WAC lives to fight another day.

[PawDawg]

SDSU & BSU football to BE.

Other sports to WAC.

WAC lives to fight another day.

How much NCAA money will be left to split up? Not that Boise and SDSU would get any, but is it worth it for the rest of them? UTA, Dallas Baptist, etc.. Is it worth it for them to stay together?