BCS buster?

[SummaCumDoggie]

Just data for others interested...

to crash the party a non- BCS aq team must be the top non-aq team and ranked in the top 12 of the BCS rankings or top 16 AND ahead of an aq league champion.

Of the teams ahead of us in the AP poll, up to and including #10, only three do not have a higher ranked team left on their schedule (boise, Ohio, and Rutgers). Assuming all 16 of these teams lose to the higher ranked team and we win out (CAREFUL with ASSumptions), we would move from 28th in the AP poll to 12th. If even the higher ranked teams win 75% of their games we could move up to #16.

All I'm saying here is WE ARE NOT DEAT YET. Sure, Ohio and Boise have to lose to LOWER ranked opponents for us to jump them. And we will likely have to wait for the last game of their seasons for them to be challenged. Still, there is a glimer of hope.

So Tech Fans, here is your rooting guide for the rest of the year:

To be ranked ahread of a confrence Champ we need one of the following three...
1. Louisville, Rutgers, and Cincinnati to each lose one game in their head-to-head match ups. One of them should win the Big East. We need them all knocked down below us. If this dosent happen we need...
2. Anyone but FSU (and maybe Clemson) to win the ACC.... OR
3. I suppose OSU cannot technically win the Big 10, so root for them to win out

To be the highest ranked on AQ team we need both of the following two...
4. Boise to lose to Nevada AND...
5. Ohio to lose to Kent State - sadly this might be the biggest hurdle to our crashing the BCS.

To move higher in the rankings we need 2 of the following three...
6. The higher ranked teams to beat the teams ranked 10-25.
7.aTm to beat LSU, Bama, and MSU - the better they look the better we look.
8. Of couse, LA TECH will dominate!

[JL]

"So your saying there's chance"

[DellDawg]

[RealityCheck]

Tech is going to need to get to at least #14 in the polls to offset a computer ranking that will probably be around 20 at best.

This certainly isn't the BC$ poll formula, but illustrates the point.
(14+14+20)/3 = 16

From #29, Tech would need to move up an average of barely more than two positions in each of the seven remaining sets of weekly polls to get to #14. Progress in the computer polls will likely be slower than that at best. I'm actually less worried about the polls than I am the computer rankings at this point.

But the only thing anyone should be worried about is getting six more impressive wins, one impressive win at a time. That is the only thing that Tech controls.

[SummaCumDoggie]

As the president of the dowtown optimist club it was my duty to show all is not lost. We can still finish in the top 25 -maybe much higher if we win our bowl.

[TechAlum05]

Here are the highest ranked teams in each BCS AQ Conference in the BCS Standings:

SEC: Alabama #1
Pac-12: Oregon #3
Big 12: Kansas State #4
ACC: Florida State #14
Big East: Rutgers #15
Big 10: Michigan #28 (Ohio State not eligible and not in BCS Standings)

Here are the teams in the BCS Standings from #14 to #31 (Louisiana Tech) and their notable opponents:

#14 Florida State: vs. #2 Florida
#15 Rutgers: vs. #16 Louisville, @ #21 Cincinnati
#16 Louisville: vs. #21 Cincinnati, @ #15 Rutgers
#17 Texas Tech: vs. #25 Texas, @ #4 Kansas State, @ #23 TCU
#18 Texas A&M: vs. #6 LSU, @ #1 Alabama, @ #12 Mississippi State
#19 Clemson: vs. #7 South Carolina, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. North Carolina State
#20 Stanford: vs. #8 Oregon State, @ #3 Oregon
#21 Cincinnati: vs. #15 Rutgers, @ 16 Louisville
#22 Boise State: vs. San Diego State, @ Nevada
#23 TCU: vs. #17 Texas Tech, vs. #4 Kansas State, vs. #9 Oklahoma, @ #25 Texas, and @ #13 West Virginia
#24 Iowa State: vs. #9 Oklahoma, vs. #13 West Virginia, @ #25 Texas
#25 Texas: vs. #23 TCU, vs. #24 Iowa State, @ #4 Kansas State, and @ #17 Texas Tech
#26 Arizona State: vs. #3 Oregon, @ #8 Oregon State, and @ #10 USC
#27 Ohio: @ Kent State, MAC Title Game (likely Toledo or Northern Illinois)
#28 Michigan: @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska
#29 Northwestern: vs. Nebraska, @ Michigan (no Ohio State)
#30 Western Kentucky: vs. ULM, @ ULL
#31 Louisiana Tech: vs. Utah State, @ San Jose State

The Big XII teams of (17) Texas Tech, (23) TCU, (24) Iowa State, and (25) Texas have loaded schedules the rest of the year.
Pac-12 teams (20) Stanford and (26) Arizona State also have difficult opponents.
The Big East teams (15) Rutgers, (16) Louisville, and (21) Cincinnati play a round-robin with each other.
(18) Texas A&M plays LSU, Bama, and Mississippi State. We need A&M to win out to help our cause as a BCS buster.
(22) Boise State, (27) Ohio, and (30) Western Kentucky are ahead of us as potential BCS busters. We should leapfrog Western Kentucky and Ohio if we win out due to the schedules of those two teams. Boise State needs to lose to Nevada as insurance for us, but Boise hasn't been too impressive so far this year.

For LA Tech to have a shot at being a BCS buster, the following things need to happen:

1. Louisiana Tech must win every game as dominantly as possible. Style points could leapfrog us over Boise State, Ohio, and Western Kentucky even if they win out.
2. In the Big XII, Kansas State and Oklahoma must win out in order to knock out TX Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Texas.
3. In the Pac-12, Oregon and Oregon State must win out in order to knock out Stanford and Arizona State.
4. Except for Ohio State and Penn State, every team in the Big 10 must continue to suck. This would knock out Michigan and Northwestern.
5. Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati must greatly damage each other in their round-robin games.
6. Boise State must lose one more game to insure Tech finishes higher than Boise in final BCS Standings.
7. Texas A&M and/or Clemson must lose one game.

[SummaCumDoggie]

I feel like we will prob be ranked between 14 and 20 by the end o the regular season. I see the odds as very good we will be ahead of a bcs conference champ at 14. To me the long shot is Ohio AND boise losing.

[PawDawg]

To me the long shot is Ohio AND boise losing.

I agree. It will be fun to hate on them and complain about the human polls for the rest of the year.

[champion110]

Pefect clip!!!!!!!!!

[hookdown]

While Ohio has been winning, they have not looked that impressive except for the PSU game. They may well slip-up before the MAC championship game. Also, it seems that the favorite in the MAC championship game has lost pretty regularly over the past few years. So it would not surprise me at all to see Ohio lose one, possibly two games.

Boise is at Nevada. Not sure they have the offensive firepower this year to overcome that, Nevada is averaging over 40 points a game.

So there is a very good chance both non-AQ's lose before the end of the season. So hope for extreme parity and plenty of upsets in the B1G and BE. And it would help if UVA/Illinois would start winning a few games (unfortunately both are in a death spiral that could get both coaches canned, although that is unlikely) and for UH to win out as well and become CUSA champs.

[DQDawg]

Let's start by winning the next game, then the next, then the next, etc. until "then the next" = 6.

[jchaisson]

Pedal to the metal until the 4th then keep CC healthy to do it again the next week.

[PawDawg]

Style points...

Get our average PPG up to 60.

[Houston Techsan]

While I agree that running up the score will help in the polls for this year, giving the backups more playing time and letting everyone participate builds a program. Unless the other team is keeping up I say stop at about 50-59. Now saying that I think we should have gone for another TD against Rice after they tried the on side kick and we recovered with over 1 1/2 minutes left. They were just trying for style points, too.

[detltu]

I think our defense needs to shut down our WAC opponents too and make the defensive rankings look better. We can't have poll voters looking at us late in the year and see that we have the #1 offense and #100+ defense. Need to make that look more respectable.