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Thread: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

  1. #16
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Dawg06:

    These are all valid points about Tulane. These are the reasons they were invited. At the same time, this was a mistake on the part of Mike Aresco, the new Big East commissioner, who is a television person.

    He cleared the Tulane invitation with several of the school presidents without ever speaking to any of the ADs - a move made by an inexperienced conference administrator. Pete Thamel wrote about this for SI.com last week. Many of the Big East presidents are college administrators with little to no experience in the world of athletics, espcially within the Catholic 7. Couple that with Aresco's inexperience and you end up having a huge blunder.

    Had Aresco spoken to the Big East ADs it's clear Tulane would not have been invited.

  2. #17
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    Dawg06:

    These are all valid points about Tulane. These are the reasons they were invited. At the same time, this was a mistake on the part of Mike Aresco, the new Big East commissioner, who is a television person.

    He cleared the Tulane invitation with several of the school presidents without ever speaking to any of the ADs - a move made by an inexperienced conference administrator. Pete Thamel wrote about this for SI.com last week. Many of the Big East presidents are college administrators with little to no experience in the world of athletics, especially within the Catholic 7. Couple that with Aresco's inexperience and you end up having a huge blunder.

    Had Aresco spoken to the Big East ADs it's clear Tulane would not have been invited.
    Which all sports school do you think the Big East ADs would have approved? I think UMass may have been the only school that could have kept the Catholic schools from immediately bolting, but the football schools wouldn't have been thrilled. Maybe Tulsa. It's not like they had another slam dunk option to keep the league from splitting. It's inevitable that the SEC and Big Ten expand again, which will eventually send UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC within the next few years. The split was inevitable. The Big East would have no future as a football conference without Tulane. If the Green Wave hadn't received the invite then, it would have eventually come, and it's not like Tulane took what would have been our spot in the Big East. We are not next in line after Tulsa.
    Last edited by Dawg06; 12-29-2012 at 03:08 PM.

  3. #18
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    Which all sports school do you think the Big East ADs would have approved? I think UMass may have been the only school that could have kept the Catholic schools from immediately bolting, but the football schools wouldn't have been thrilled. Maybe Tulsa. It's not like they had another slam dunk option to keep the league from splitting. It's inevitable that the SEC and Big Ten expand again, which will eventually send UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC within the next few years. The split was inevitable. The Big East would have no future as a football conference without Tulane. If the Green Wave hadn't received the invite then, it would have eventually come, and it's not like Tulane took what would have been our spot in the Big East. We are not next in line after Tulsa.
    I think a Tulsa invite would have prevented the split, at least for now. The Catholic 7 bolted based upon ESPN's initial offer during the exclusive negotiating window that just ended earlier in Q4 - $40 to $50 million per year. Aresco pleaded with them to wait to see what the other 5 bidders came up with. They still voted for the split. I think it was a really bad decision.

    Since voting for the split, a media consultant has advised the schools that a 12-team league with the Catholic 7 plus 5 others could be worth as much as $3 million per school, per year. So the Catholic 7 plus 5 others, perhaps Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, etc... would be worth more than the Catholic 7 plus Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, USF, UCF, etc...? Doubtful.

    I think they could have gotten just as much money per school had they waited. By not waiting they likely lose the Big East name and the branding that goes with it. They are also taking other risks by upsetting the applecart, including the Big East basketball tournament in MSG, which ESPN dearly loves, because they use it as a their second-biggest corporate function of the year behind the ESPYs.

    You also mention UConn and Cincy bolting for the ACC once the SEC and Big 10 each invite 2 from the ACC. I was wrong in a previous post regarding the ACC and expansion. The ACC cannot hold off defections to the SEC or Big 10 but will likely be able to hold off any defections to the Big 12 once ESPN renegotiates its ACC TV contract and gives up third-tier football TV rights. With no third-tier football through Raycom, there would be no reason to expand back to 14 for football. They could stay at 12 plus Notre Dame. No more defections from the Big East.

    It brings up another point regarding the Catholic 7. If the ACC is sitting at 13 for basketball, what's to stop them from inviting St. John's, Georgetown, and Villanova to get to 16. It would be just like ESPN to orchestrate it. They protect their ACC product. At the same time, the move would keep DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette from bolting the Big East. The better money would be in staying put. The new Big East is then a 17 school league. With 5 all sports minus FBS football, including the Catholic 4 plus one other; Navy for football only; 11 others for all sports. ESPN then keeps the basketball tourney in MSG and outbids all others for the basketball portion of the TV contract. Football is left to the highest bidder, and at this time NBC appears to have the most interest and dollars to overpay if necessary.

    And I don't know what exactly might happen with invitations past Tulsa. Your points on this subject are valid. In the end, it might be the difference between them needing 2 schools or 4-5 schools.

  4. #19
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    You also mention UConn and Cincy bolting for the ACC once the SEC and Big 10 each invite 2 from the ACC. I was wrong in a previous post regarding the ACC and expansion. The ACC cannot hold off defections to the SEC or Big 10 but will likely be able to hold off any defections to the Big 12 once ESPN renegotiates its ACC TV contract and gives up third-tier football TV rights. With no third-tier football through Raycom, there would be no reason to expand back to 14 for football. They could stay at 12 plus Notre Dame. No more defections from the Big East.
    I thought that was exactly what you previously said about ACC defections.

    The ACC is set to have 14 football members. It looks like the ACC will lose 4 total members to the Big Ten and SEC each invite 2 ACC members in the near future. That would leave the ACC at 10 football members. UConn and Cincinnati would be added to the ACC to make 12 football members. The ACC would stick with 12 football schools at that point. After UConn and Cincy bolt, there would be no additional defections to the ACC. Is that how you see it?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    It brings up another point regarding the Catholic 7. If the ACC is sitting at 13 for basketball, what's to stop them from inviting St. John's, Georgetown, and Villanova to get to 16. It would be just like ESPN to orchestrate it. They protect their ACC product. At the same time, the move would keep DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette from bolting the Big East. The better money would be in staying put. The new Big East is then a 17 school league. With 5 all sports minus FBS football, including the Catholic 4 plus one other; Navy for football only; 11 others for all sports. ESPN then keeps the basketball tourney in MSG and outbids all others for the basketball portion of the TV contract. Football is left to the highest bidder, and at this time NBC appears to have the most interest and dollars to overpay if necessary.
    Now that is very interesting to ponder.

    For now, I think the big question is, "Which way does the Boise State domino fall?".

  5. #20
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    I thought that was exactly what you previously said about ACC defections.

    The ACC is set to have 14 football members. It looks like the ACC will lose 4 total members to the Big Ten and SEC each invite 2 ACC members in the near future. That would leave the ACC at 10 football members. UConn and Cincinnati would be added to the ACC to make 12 football members. The ACC would stick with 12 football schools at that point. After UConn and Cincy bolt, there would be no additional defections to the ACC. Is that how you see it?



    I thought the ACC would have to get back to 14 for TV purposes, but without third-tier football rights, there would be no need to go past 12 for football. They can add Cincy and UConn and stop there.

    Regarding Boise, I have the same opinion as a week ago. I think they will exhaust all options but eventually end up in the MWC. I agree with you about CBS vs. ESPN/NBC. I think the total package CBS will give the MWC if Boise and SDSU stay in the league will equal or outpace the football package the Big East gets in the coming months. At the same time, the football plus basketball deal the Big East gets will likely be enough to keep SMU and Houston.

  6. #21
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    No one remembers the decades of Tulane being a member of the SEC. Usually on the bottom of the pack just as Rice was in the SWC all those years and seldom anything but the bottom for some decades.

  7. #22
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    It looks like the ACC will lose 4 total members to the Big Ten and SEC each invite 2 ACC members in the near future. That would leave the ACC at 10 football members. UConn and Cincinnati would be added to the ACC to make 12 football members. The ACC would stick with 12 football schools at that point. After UConn and Cincy bolt, there would be no additional defections to the ACC. Is that how you see it?
    ACC South: Miami, FSU, Clempsun, Wake, NCSU, Va Tech
    ACC North: UL (the real one), Cincy, Pitt, Cuse, UConn, BC

    no need for cross division rivals, because there are no long term rivalries that need to be saved with that split.

    i would be happy with that split.

    get rid of Dook, UNC, GT, and Md - 4 traditional football bottom feeders. replace them with schools of equal or better strength in basketball (UL, Pitt, Cuse, UConn) who just so happen to be a big step up in football.

    it is not $EC strength, but is still quite respectable. i would be happy with a schedule that looed like:
    MTSU, @USF, Wake, Clempsun, @Va Tech, NCSU, @Miami, Pitt, @UL (the real one), @UConn, Murray State, UF

  8. #23
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by GrassyNoleHitman View Post
    ACC South: Miami, FSU, Clempsun, Wake, NCSU, Va Tech
    ACC North: UL (the real one), Cincy, Pitt, Cuse, UConn, BC

    no need for cross division rivals, because there are no long term rivalries that need to be saved with that split.

    i would be happy with that split.

    get rid of Dook, UNC, GT, and Md - 4 traditional football bottom feeders. replace them with schools of equal or better strength in basketball (UL, Pitt, Cuse, UConn) who just so happen to be a big step up in football.

    it is not $EC strength, but is still quite respectable. i would be happy with a schedule that looed like:
    MTSU, @USF, Wake, Clempsun, @Va Tech, NCSU, @Miami, Pitt, @UL (the real one), @UConn, Murray State, UF
    I think Virginia Tech and NC State will most likely be the targets of the SEC.

    I think the ACC football would more than likely look like this:
    ACC North
    Boston College
    Connecticut
    Syracuse
    Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati
    Louisville
    ACC South
    Duke
    North Carolina
    Wake Forest
    Clemson
    Florida State
    Miami

  9. #24
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    I think Virginia Tech and NC State will most likely be the targets of the SEC.

    I think the ACC football would more than likely look like this:
    ACC North
    Boston College
    Connecticut
    Syracuse
    Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati
    Louisville
    ACC South
    Duke
    North Carolina
    Wake Forest
    Clemson
    Florida State
    Miami
    The Big12 is still trying to grab Clemson and FlaSt and/or Louisville my friend.

  10. #25
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS View Post
    The Big12 is still trying to grab Clemson and FlaSt and/or Louisville my friend.
    I don't think ESPN will allow it. ESPN will do what's necessary to protect the ACC from the Big 12.

  11. #26
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS View Post
    The Big12 is still trying to grab Clemson and FlaSt and/or Louisville my friend.


    All ESPN would have to do is give up third tier football rights to almost equalize the money between the ACC and Big 12 for those three schools. Expect that to happen before the ACC were to lose schools to the Big 12.

  12. #27
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by domangue View Post
    I'm really starting to read some tea leaves regarding this poker game between MWC and Big East over Boise State...

    IF the MWC wins them back, could it be the death spiral that terminates the Big East as a football conference?

    There has been a lot of public chatter about the Big East TV deal... while the numbers are certainly on the high end relative to the other gang of five members, there seems to be some significant challenges on projecting anything past 3-5 years or so. There is a moderate chance that they won't get a viable long-term television deal offer whatsoever at this point.

    This truly might become a "bird in the hand" type of deal for Boise et al... take the bigger $$ from the Big East knowing that the juice might only last for 3-5 years, OR take a 30% cut by staying MWC knowing the $$ is stable and for the long-term. And BTW, have MBB in the MWC instead of the Big West. And have the exact same chance of getting into an access bowl.

    I am starting to have a few doubts of the premise that the Big East is in the "catbird" seat in all this as we've all been assuming.

    So, the western wing of Big East: Boise State, SDSU, Houston, and SMU join the MWC. This allows Houston and SMU to save face and not crawl back to C-USA, and further, SMU has a history in western-based conferences anyway.

    Then the remaining Big East: USF, UCF, ECU, Tulane, Memphis re-join C-USA. Temple as well. This creates a 20-team league for C-USA. ECU hadn't even figured out where to send MBB. After all said and done, CUSA lost 2 (Houston, SMU) and added 10 (La Tech, FIU, UNT, UTSA, Temple, FAU, MTSU, USF, ODU, Charlotte).

    Cincinnati and UConn are still actively whoring themselves out for an ACC bid. In their elite arrogance, they hold their nose and join either C-USA or MAC for a couple of years as a placeholder until their bid comes calling. Perhaps they join the MAC in football and throw-in with the Catholic schools for MBB? Politically, they very well might champion the idea of dissolving the Big East as a mechanism to grease the wheels for further realignment scenarios. They've already floated their little idea about starting up their own conference.



    I really am starting to wonder about how all this shakes out. Who knows, it might just work out for us after all!
    So... let's reassess the various points made in this thread.

    The MWC crafted a deal for Boise by which the $$ equaled out relatively well. SDSU is on the clock, followed by Houston/SMU.

    BYU... if the MWC was willing to give the concessions to Boise, would they be willing to give the "Boise deal" to BYU as well? Is there too much bad blood from the other schools to let that happen? This might be a game changer.

    Then the other part of the deal... the participating school keeps 50% of BCS/Access Bowl revenue off the top before sharing with the rest of the conference. This is huge for a team that aspires to compete at the highest level. This would be like a $10mm proposition for a team like Houston or Tulsa who would have some realistic shot.

    It will be fascinating to see where things go from here. The MWC has won the poker hand it appears.

    I believe the biggest piece to the puzzle (as far as we're concerned anyway) will be ECU.... with a FB-only bid and no home (yet) for MBB.

    If (A) MWC strikes again taking Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and UTEP to make a 16-team league. There really are no good, slam dunk options left out there for the Big East to keep their television contract.... sorry, but UNT doesn't capture DFW like a historic former SWC conference team like SMU. If ECU simply says, nevermind, that might be the domino that topples the whole house of cards.

  13. #28
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    BYU is interesting, but I think they will rejoin the MWC at some point. Their reason for going Indy was trying to save face after arch rival Utah got invited to the AQ dance. Eventually, though, they probably rejoin the MWC for fear of being left out completely. The only other serious option they have is a Big 12 invitation, but we still don't know what those guys are going to do. It seems they want Fla. St., but you never know what might happen.

    I agree that UNT doesn't capture the Dallas market. All the talk about markets is a little pointless anyway. For the Big 10, markets were important because of the B1G network. Moving to the NYC and Washington DC market meant moving the network into those markets as well. That translates into more money because there will be new subscribers and providers picking up their channel. Commissioners will undoubtedly look at markets when considering expansion, but their is no Big East network, so they will not see the same dollar signs that the Big 10 guys saw.

  14. #29
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by domangue View Post
    So... let's reassess the various points made in this thread.

    The MWC crafted a deal for Boise by which the $$ equaled out relatively well. SDSU is on the clock, followed by Houston/SMU.

    BYU... if the MWC was willing to give the concessions to Boise, would they be willing to give the "Boise deal" to BYU as well? Is there too much bad blood from the other schools to let that happen? This might be a game changer.

    Then the other part of the deal... the participating school keeps 50% of BCS/Access Bowl revenue off the top before sharing with the rest of the conference. This is huge for a team that aspires to compete at the highest level. This would be like a $10mm proposition for a team like Houston or Tulsa who would have some realistic shot.

    It will be fascinating to see where things go from here. The MWC has won the poker hand it appears.

    I believe the biggest piece to the puzzle (as far as we're concerned anyway) will be ECU.... with a FB-only bid and no home (yet) for MBB.

    If (A) MWC strikes again taking Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and UTEP to make a 16-team league. There really are no good, slam dunk options left out there for the Big East to keep their television contract.... sorry, but UNT doesn't capture DFW like a historic former SWC conference team like SMU. If ECU simply says, nevermind, that might be the domino that topples the whole house of cards.
    Quote Originally Posted by StrayDawg View Post
    BYU is interesting, but I think they will rejoin the MWC at some point. Their reason for going Indy was trying to save face after arch rival Utah got invited to the AQ dance. Eventually, though, they probably rejoin the MWC for fear of being left out completely. The only other serious option they have is a Big 12 invitation, but we still don't know what those guys are going to do. It seems they want Fla. St., but you never know what might happen.

    I agree that UNT doesn't capture the Dallas market. All the talk about markets is a little pointless anyway. For the Big 10, markets were important because of the B1G network. Moving to the NYC and Washington DC market meant moving the network into those markets as well. That translates into more money because there will be new subscribers and providers picking up their channel. Commissioners will undoubtedly look at markets when considering expansion, but their is no Big East network, so they will not see the same dollar signs that the Big 10 guys saw.
    I think BYU will end up in the MW with a Notre Dame-type deal. That means that BYU would become a non-football member of the MW and agree to play five MW football teams each season as a football independent. That would be very similar to "The Project" by BYU, Benson, and the WAC. As a football-only member, Hawai'i would fill BYU's spot in MW football. This move by BYU and the MW would not create a domino that affects us.

    The market talk is not pointless. There is a Big East Network. It's just not a full-time channel like the BTN. The Big East Network is syndicated to numerous tv stations and satellite tv. Media markets are important to tv deals regardless of whether the conference has its own network. The BTN and SECN aren't wanting 16 members simply to add larger markets. They are going to 16 because they have to fill time slots on a channel that operates 24/7. To get more households to pay for the network, they will go after big markets with lots of households. In addition, it doesn't matter if a school captures its market or not. What really matters is that the conferences can claim a presence in each market during tv contract negotiations. I think media markets are also used as a measure of the potential of the fan base.

    East Carolina will eventually get an all-sports invitation to the Big East. It's just a matter of time. The Big East's all-sports for some, non-football for some, and football-only for others model fell apart. I think it will have to become an all-sports conference to survive. The only football-only schools that I can possibly see are Army and Navy.

  15. #30
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    Re: Another thought on the Big East/MWC saga?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    I think BYU will end up in the MW with a Notre Dame-type deal. That means that BYU would become a non-football member of the MW and agree to play five MW football teams each season as a football independent. That would be very similar to "The Project" by BYU, Benson, and the WAC. As a football-only member, Hawai'i would fill BYU's spot in MW football. This move by BYU and the MW would not create a domino that affects us. [...]

    East Carolina will eventually get an all-sports invitation to the Big East. It's just a matter of time. The Big East's all-sports for some, non-football for some, and football-only for others model fell apart. I think it will have to become an all-sports conference to survive. The only football-only schools that I can possibly see are Army and Navy.
    I think a ND-like arrangement with BYU would be wise, but I don't think the conference will do it. Too stubborn.

    I can't figure out why the ECU invite hasn't happened yet. I'm afraid the conference might be thinking that it has the best of both worlds (ECU football, but not having to go to Greenville for volleyball!) but that's bad, short-term thinking. ECU needs to be shored up and special circumstances (like Navy) should be required for partial membership.
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