MWC, CBS Restructure TV Deal

[StrayDawg]

Just announced that the MWC has a better TV package. This is going to make it hard for Boise to stay in the Big East. If they go back, SDSU definitely goes with them. This could also render the Big East's plan for westward expansion obsolete.

Mountain West, CBS Restructure TV Contract

This could also render the Big East's plan for westward expansion obsolete. The MWC will almost definitely try to get Houston and SMU, but it will be interesting to see what happens to everyone else. So, if you were Britton Banowsky.....

[rebelboi]

If I'm MWC I tell SDSU to go take a hike and invite SMU & Houston instead. Didn't SDSU's AD talk crap about the MWC?

[StrayDawg]

Actually, there is some talk out here about telling Boise to take a hike, but I doubt they will tell either of them that.

SDSU was a charter member of the MWC, so they will be welcomed back by everyone, plus every fan likes taking a trip to San Diego. But, Boise had just entered the MWC, after years of trying to get in, and then bolted for the Big East after one season. That ruffled some feathers, but like I said, I feel pretty confident that both will be welcomed back to the Mountain West if they choose to return.

The next question is: What happens to the former CUSA schools now in the BE? Do they grab a few more teams, do they try some kind of merger (doubtful), or do they just stand still for a year? Right now, I think the smart money says to do something regional and forget this nationwide "market" nonsense.

What if the Big 10 decides to take two more teams? They will probably get them from the ACC, then the ACC will take UConn and maybe Cincinnati. Then what happens to the BE? This whole thing is like watching a National Geographic documentary and wondering which star is going to blow up first.

[hookdown]

That ruffled some feathers, but like I said, I feel pretty confident that both will be welcomed back to the Mountain West if they choose to return.

If Boise brings along more dollars (and they will), they will be welcomed back with open arms.

[TechAlum05]

If I'm MWC I tell SDSU to go take a hike and invite SMU & Houston instead. Didn't SDSU's AD talk crap about the MWC?

One rule that business leaders should follow: Be willing to swallow a lot of crap if it's right for business.

If welcoming back San Diego State and Boise State is the best move for the MWC, then San Diego State and Boise State should be welcomed back.

[DQDawg]

Lots of "kabukie dancing" is starting up. This will drive all of us NUTS.

[GrassyNoleHitman]

What if the Big 10 decides to take two more teams? They will probably get them from the ACC, then the ACC will take UConn and maybe Cincinnati. Then what happens to the BE? This whole thing is like watching a National Geographic documentary and wondering which star is going to blow up first.

Watch the Md lawsuit about the ACC exit fee. if Md is able to get out of the ACC cheap you won't be talking about the ACC adding UConn and Cincy. you will be talking about the death of the ACC. a group of 4 to 6 teams will bolt and join the Big 12. the SEC and B1G Ten will take whoever they want. The ACC will have nothing of value left. the remnants of that conference and the remnants of the Big East will merge out of survival. probably keep the ACC name and sell the Big East name to the Big Priest catholic schools.

I don't know what will happen with the PAC 12. they will eventually add more, i just don't know who they would be willing and able to get.

my 2016 prediction...

B1G Ten = Md, Rutgers, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, NWern, Wisc, Iowa, Nebraska, Minn, ND, UVA
SEC= aTm, LSU, Ark, Miss, MSU, UAT, Auburn, UF, UGA, UT, Vandy, Ky, USC, Missouri, NCSU, VT
Big 16 = UT, TT, TCU, Baylor, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, WV, FSU, UM, CU, Cincy, UL, GT
PAC 14 = Same as now...but will pick 2 teams from the MWC/BYU later

leftover ACC/Big East merger = Wake, UNC, Dook, UVA, Pitt, Cuse, USF, UCF, UConn, Memphis, Temple

other Big East castoffs (Tulane, ECU, and the failed western expansion) will be sorted out with the western conferences...

MWC = Boise, SDSU, Frenso, AFA, CSU, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose, Utah St, Houston, SMU


the other conferences stay the same as their current plan (CUSA welcomes back Tulane and ECU with their tail between their legs)...but then after 4 more years or so...the PAC 12 will expand into MWC territory. the MWC will take replacements from CUSA. and so forth...

[Dirtydawg]

Watch the Md lawsuit about the ACC exit fee. if Md is able to get out of the ACC cheap you won't be talking about the ACC adding UConn and Cincy. you will be talking about the death of the ACC. a group of 4 to 6 teams will bolt and join the Big 12. the SEC and B1G Ten will take whoever they want. The ACC will have nothing of value left. the remnants of that conference and the remnants of the Big East will merge out of survival. probably keep the ACC name and sell the Big East name to the Big Priest catholic schools.

I don't know what will happen with the PAC 12. they will eventually add more, i just don't know who they would be willing and able to get.

my 2016 prediction...

B1G Ten = Md, Rutgers, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, NWern, Wisc, Iowa, Nebraska, Minn, ND, UVA
SEC= aTm, LSU, Ark, Miss, MSU, UAT, Auburn, UF, UGA, UT, Vandy, Ky, USC, Missouri, NCSU, VT
Big 16 = UT, TT, TCU, Baylor, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, WV, FSU, UM, CU, Cincy, UL, GT
PAC 14 = Same as now...but will pick 2 teams from the MWC/BYU later

leftover ACC/Big East merger = Wake, UNC, Dook, UVA, Pitt, Cuse, USF, UCF, UConn, Memphis, Temple

other Big East castoffs (Tulane, ECU, and the failed western expansion) will be sorted out with the western conferences...

MWC = Boise, SDSU, Frenso, AFA, CSU, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose, Utah St, Houston, SMU


the other conferences stay the same as their current plan (CUSA welcomes back Tulane and ECU with their tail between their legs)...but then after 4 more years or so...the PAC 12 will expand into MWC territory. the MWC will take replacements from CUSA. and so forth...

With a decent showing or even a win in the NC game, I can't see ND joining a conference. If they had continued in mediocrity the next couple of years, then maybe so, but this season has made them relevant again. IMO

[The Historian]

Watch the Md lawsuit about the ACC exit fee. if Md is able to get out of the ACC cheap you won't be talking about the ACC adding UConn and Cincy. you will be talking about the death of the ACC. a group of 4 to 6 teams will bolt and join the Big 12. the SEC and B1G Ten will take whoever they want. The ACC will have nothing of value left. the remnants of that conference and the remnants of the Big East will merge out of survival. probably keep the ACC name and sell the Big East name to the Big Priest catholic schools.

I don't know what will happen with the PAC 12. they will eventually add more, i just don't know who they would be willing and able to get.

my 2016 prediction...

B1G Ten = Md, Rutgers, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, NWern, Wisc, Iowa, Nebraska, Minn, ND, UVA
SEC= aTm, LSU, Ark, Miss, MSU, UAT, Auburn, UF, UGA, UT, Vandy, Ky, USC, Missouri, NCSU, VT
Big 16 = UT, TT, TCU, Baylor, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, WV, FSU, UM, CU, Cincy, UL, GT
PAC 14 = Same as now...but will pick 2 teams from the MWC/BYU later

leftover ACC/Big East merger = Wake, UNC, Dook, UVA, Pitt, Cuse, USF, UCF, UConn, Memphis, Temple

other Big East castoffs (Tulane, ECU, and the failed western expansion) will be sorted out with the western conferences...

MWC = Boise, SDSU, Frenso, AFA, CSU, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose, Utah St, Houston, SMU


the other conferences stay the same as their current plan (CUSA welcomes back Tulane and ECU with their tail between their legs)...but then after 4 more years or so...the PAC 12 will expand into MWC territory. the MWC will take replacements from CUSA. and so forth...

Great post! But I disagree with one thing. The ACC will lose schools to the Big 10 and SEC but before they start losing schools to the Big 12, I think ESPN will step in to restructure its contract with the ACC. The ACC is the single biggest source of programming for the ESPN family of networks. It might have to overpay at this point to protect that programming but will do so. You are correct about the ACC-Maryland lawsuit settlement. That is step 1 in this process.

My best guess as to what might happen and why:

Legal settlement between the ACC and Maryland – There is speculation that the Big 10 and potential members are waiting to see what this final number will be. If it’s what many expect – roughly $17 million, which is about one year of conference revenue, the Big 10 will likely then move forward by inviting two more schools, a necessity for Big 10 Network programming. There is widespread speculation that those schools are Virginia and Georgia Tech. That move almost certainly sends UConn and Cincy to the ACC.

ACC-ESPN TV deal restructuring – This is in conjunction with the ACC-Maryland settlement. Once that number is known, and if it’s as low as expected, the ball will then be in ESPN’s court. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all are losing money in the ACC vs. being in the Big 12 by not having third-tier football television rights. The ACC deal signed last year does not have another “look-in” for renegotiation until 2017. But ESPN will come to the table early to protect its investment.

Establishment of the SEC Network – The SEC’s stand-alone network should be up and running by 2014-2015. Almost immediately, it will likely be in the same position the Big 10 is in with the Big 10 Network and a lack of programming. If Virginia heads to the Big 10, there is no reason for Virginia Tech to stay in the ACC. If the SEC expands – and chances are the league will – it’ll likely be the Hokies and NC State to answer the call. ESPN can work to keep schools from leaving the ACC for the Big 12, but not the Big 10 or SEC.

What I think may happen before July 1, 2013:

ACC – ESPN restructures its TV deal and helps the league keep FSU, Miami, and Clemson. The league loses Virginia and Georgia Tech to the Big 10 and Virginia Tech and NC State to the SEC. It adds Cincy and UConn, along with Temple and one more school (I could also see the league staying at 12).

SEC – Adds NC State and Virginia Tech to fill out SEC Network programming.

Big 10 – Adds Virginia and Georgia Tech to fill out Big 10 Network programming.

Big 12 – No additions or losses in the next six months.

Big East and Mountain West – It’s fairly obvious at this point that Boise State and SDSU are heading back to the Mountain West. CBS has renegotiated the MWC contract and appears willing to do so again to reflect additions to the league. At the same time, I think before leaving for the MWC, Houston and SMU might wait to learn what type of television dollar figure might come from a Big East that would include the six former CUSA schools plus USF and four or five additions. I think Navy might do the same.

[GrassyNoleHitman]

I think ESPN will step in to restructure its contract with the ACC. The ACC is the single biggest source of programming for the ESPN family of networks. It might have to overpay at this point to protect that programming but will do so. You are correct about the ACC-Maryland lawsuit settlement. That is step 1 in this process.

My best guess as to what might happen and why:

Legal settlement between the ACC and Maryland – There is speculation that the Big 10 and potential members are waiting to see what this final number will be. If it’s what many expect – roughly $17 million, which is about one year of conference revenue, the Big 10 will likely then move forward by inviting two more schools, a necessity for Big 10 Network programming. There is widespread speculation that those schools are Virginia and Georgia Tech. That move almost certainly sends UConn and Cincy to the ACC.

ACC-ESPN TV deal restructuring – This is in conjunction with the ACC-Maryland settlement. Once that number is known, and if it’s as low as expected, the ball will then be in ESPN’s court. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all are losing money in the ACC vs. being in the Big 12 by not having third-tier football television rights. The ACC deal signed last year does not have another “look-in” for renegotiation until 2017. But ESPN will come to the table early to protect its investment.
...

ACC – ESPN restructures its TV deal and helps the league keep FSU, Miami, and Clemson. The league loses Virginia and Georgia Tech to the Big 10 and Virginia Tech and NC State to the SEC. It adds Cincy and UConn, along with Temple and one more school (I could also see the league staying at 12).

i hadn't thought of ESPiN stepping up to secure its investment in the ACC. but if that would happen...why did they short change the conference in the first place? based on the deals the other conferences got, the ACC was short changed IMHO about $8 mil per team per year. that is my guess as to what a cable network would be worth, and we got somewhere around $0 for giving ESPiN all of the content we could use to stock a cable network.

i have also heard the noise of GT and UVA heading to the Big Ten. it sounds a lot like the noise i heard for years of Missouri heading to the Big Ten. you heard that noise all the way up to Nebraska being invited out of the blue as the Big Ten's 12th member. Delaney likes to work in secret, just like Swofford. nobody heard of Md, Rutgers, Pitt, or Cuse switching conferences until hours before it was a done deal. that makes me think the GT and UVA talk is another head fake by the Big Ten as they secretly are negotiating with UNC and Dook.


I puked in my mouth a little when you suggested Temple may come to the ACC. i guess that would be ok with me as long as FSU was not in it ;-)

[rlmiddle]

Great post! But I disagree with one thing. The ACC will lose schools to the Big 10 and SEC but before they start losing schools to the Big 12, I think ESPN will step in to restructure its contract with the ACC. The ACC is the single biggest source of programming for the ESPN family of networks. It might have to overpay at this point to protect that programming but will do so. You are correct about the ACC-Maryland lawsuit settlement. That is step 1 in this process.

My best guess as to what might happen and why:

Legal settlement between the ACC and Maryland – There is speculation that the Big 10 and potential members are waiting to see what this final number will be. If it’s what many expect – roughly $17 million, which is about one year of conference revenue, the Big 10 will likely then move forward by inviting two more schools, a necessity for Big 10 Network programming. There is widespread speculation that those schools are Virginia and Georgia Tech. That move almost certainly sends UConn and Cincy to the ACC.

ACC-ESPN TV deal restructuring – This is in conjunction with the ACC-Maryland settlement. Once that number is known, and if it’s as low as expected, the ball will then be in ESPN’s court. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all are losing money in the ACC vs. being in the Big 12 by not having third-tier football television rights. The ACC deal signed last year does not have another “look-in” for renegotiation until 2017. But ESPN will come to the table early to protect its investment.

Establishment of the SEC Network – The SEC’s stand-alone network should be up and running by 2014-2015. Almost immediately, it will likely be in the same position the Big 10 is in with the Big 10 Network and a lack of programming. If Virginia heads to the Big 10, there is no reason for Virginia Tech to stay in the ACC. If the SEC expands – and chances are the league will – it’ll likely be the Hokies and NC State to answer the call. ESPN can work to keep schools from leaving the ACC for the Big 12, but not the Big 10 or SEC.

What I think may happen before July 1, 2013:

ACC – ESPN restructures its TV deal and helps the league keep FSU, Miami, and Clemson. The league loses Virginia and Georgia Tech to the Big 10 and Virginia Tech and NC State to the SEC. It adds Cincy and UConn, along with Temple and one more school (I could also see the league staying at 12).

SEC – Adds NC State and Virginia Tech to fill out SEC Network programming.

Big 10 – Adds Virginia and Georgia Tech to fill out Big 10 Network programming.

Big 12 – No additions or losses in the next six months.

Big East and Mountain West – It’s fairly obvious at this point that Boise State and SDSU are heading back to the Mountain West. CBS has renegotiated the MWC contract and appears willing to do so again to reflect additions to the league. At the same time, I think before leaving for the MWC, Houston and SMU might wait to learn what type of television dollar figure might come from a Big East that would include the six former CUSA schools plus USF and four or five additions. I think Navy might do the same.

I would think that UNC would be a much more valuable addition than NCST to the SEC or any other the other conferences.

[The Historian]

I would think that UNC would be a much more valuable addition than NCST to the SEC or any other the other conferences.

They would be. One sportswriter recently described them as the "white whale" in any future expansion. But when approached in the past by the SEC and Big 10 to gauge interest, they have been an adamant "No".

[Dawg06]

Apparently none of this is really about what Boise State decides to do.

It's somewhat MW vs. Big East, but it's mainly about CBS vs. ESPN/NBC.

CBS appears to be the most desperate party involved because they have lost the most with all this conference realignment. CBS is having to pay their soul to the SEC, and their CBS Sports contracts with the MW and C-USA have become severely devalued by the weakening of those conferences. CBS Sports lost Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, East Carolina, and Tulane. They don't want to lose Boise State, San Diego State, and UNLV/Fresno State, too.

CBS is not in play for the Big East contract. That will go to ESPN/NBC.

That's why CBS just offered that great deal to save the MW.

Boise State does not want to go back to the MW. They want to move forward to the Big East to separate themselves, but now there is disincentive to move on because of the new CBS contract with the MW.

Boise State is playing hardball by pitting the two conferences up against each other to see which one will cave by giving them the Texas treatment of getting more tv revenue than their conference mates by retraining home tv rights. If either conference caves, it probably won't end well for that conference.

Will ESPN/NBC counter with a stronger Big East deal? Which conference(s), if any, caves to Boise State's demands? Which is the most desperate party involved?

This is crazy with it being so close to next year. A final decision will have to be made very soon, and it's out of Boise State's hands. They will go to the conference that gives them the best tv deal.

[RealityCheck]

They would be. One sportswriter recently described them as the "white whale" in any future expansion. But when approached in the past by the SEC and Big 10 to gauge interest, they have been an adamant "No".

UNC's academic profile has always mirrored the Big Ten more than the $EC. But with the current academic scandal involving athletics at North Carolina that may date back as long as 15 years, the Big Ten may want no part of that action.

[Dawg06]

IF Hair Thompson and CBS get their way, this is how I see the "Group of Five" falling into place in the next few months...

Mountain West East Houston SMU New Mexico Air Force Colorado State Wyoming Utah State West Boise State Nevada UNLV San Jose State Fresno State San Diego State Hawai'i

Big East North UConn UMass Temple Navy East Carolina Cincinnati Memphis South UCF South Florida Tulane Tulsa North Texas Rice UTEP

Conference USA East Marshall Old Dominion Charlotte WKU Georgia State Florida Atlantic FIU West Middle Tennessee UAB Southern Miss Louisiana Tech Texas State UTSA New Mexico State

MAC East Buffalo Kent State Akron Ohio Bowling Green Miami (Ohio) West Toledo Eastern Michigan Central Michigan Western Michigan Ball State Northern Illinois

Sun Belt Football James Madison Appalachian State Georgia Southern South Alabama Troy Arkansas State La-Monroe La-Lafayette Idaho (fb-only) Non-football UA-Little Rock UT-Arlington

This does not take into account the impending additions to the B1G and SEC that would send UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC.

Then the Big East would invite two more C-USA schools, and we would not be one of them.

Then C-USA would backfill with two more jucos from the Belch.