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Thread: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

  1. #106
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    You're mistaken on that number HD. It's $20m a year (plus most likely $2m from CBS and maybe other arrangements, though ESPN will be the bulk of it) after 2013-14. Assuming the CBS figure is right, it's 1.8 per team if 12 teams.

  2. #107
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    So, since the Big East will receive $13M TV package for its 10-team FOOTBALL league, that's an average of $1.3M per team. What will CUSA's football teams receive comparatively?



    HD
    2013-14
    10 football schools will split $13 million from ESPN ($1.3 million per school)
    All 18 schools will split $10 million from ESPN for basketball ($555,556 per school)
    All 18 schools will split $2 million from CBS for basketball ($111,111 per school)

    That means the 10 Big East football schools will receive an average of $1,966,667 in TV revenue.

    C-USA's TV deal with Fox Sports, CBSSN, and ESPN is worth approximately $16 million per year.
    C-USA will have 16 schools in 2013-14.
    So C-USA schools will receive an average of approximately $1 million per school.

    Keep in mind that schools leaving the conference like Tulane and East Carolina will probably have to forfeit their conference revenues, and entering schools like La Tech likely won't receive our full conference distribution for the first couple of years. I actually think that C-USA will deduct a percentage of our $2 million entrance fee from our conference distribution for the first couple of years.

    For comparison, Belch schools will only receive between $35,000 to $50,000 in TV revenue from ESPN next season.

  3. #108
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Ahh, HD was solely referring to next year. My bad. I think we'll get less than the full amount for the same reason Dawg06 mentions LaTech will get less than the full C*USA amount (though I'd be surprised if Charlotte and ODU got the same amount as LaTech, so that leaves more in the pot).

  4. #109
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    2013-14
    10 football schools will split $13 million from ESPN ($1.3 million per school)
    All 18 schools will split $10 million from ESPN for basketball ($555,556 per school)
    All 18 schools will split $2 million from CBS for basketball ($111,111 per school)

    That means the 10 Big East football schools will receive an average of $1,966,667 in TV revenue.

    C-USA's TV deal with Fox Sports, CBSSN, and ESPN is worth approximately $16 million per year.
    C-USA will have 16 schools in 2013-14.
    So C-USA schools will receive an average of approximately $1 million per school.

    Keep in mind that schools leaving the conference like Tulane and East Carolina will probably have to forfeit their conference revenues, and entering schools like La Tech likely won't receive our full conference distribution for the first couple of years. I actually think that C-USA will deduct a percentage of our $2 million entrance fee from our conference distribution for the first couple of years.

    For comparison, Belch schools will only receive between $35,000 to $50,000 in TV revenue from ESPN next season.
    Hey '06, does the $16M TV contract amount for CUSA include basketball? Or just football? And if it includes just football, does that mean the CUSA men's basketball contract is still marketable to the networks?

    Let's pretend for a moment I'm your CEO, and you are my auditor. I'm trying to get an honest "apples to apples" comparison of TV revenues ONLY between the 2 conferences. Unfortunately, I feel like you are purposely "cookin the books" to show only the best outcome for the Big East. For example, you eagerly volunteered the men's basketball TV revenue for the 18 Big East schools (which will obviously be negatively impacted when the Catholic 7 and others LEAVE!), but you failed to mention the TV revenue for CUSA men's basketball. You would likely be fired for that omission in most companies.:icon_wink:

    Just give it to us straight. When 2014-15 arrives, and the Catholic 7, Louisville & Cincinnati aren't around anymore, how will the 2 TV contracts compare then? I already know the Big East has the better contract, so you can quit being defensive about that. I'm trying to ascertain how closely the 2 contracts compare.

  5. #110
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by parialex View Post
    Ahh, HD was solely referring to next year. My bad. I think we'll get less than the full amount for the same reason Dawg06 mentions LaTech will get less than the full C*USA amount (though I'd be surprised if Charlotte and ODU got the same amount as LaTech, so that leaves more in the pot).
    Yes parialex, '06 had already explained to us that the 10 football schools would split only $13M next year. I'm trying to find out if that means the Big East schools will average $1.3M each (10schools/13M) vs CUSA's $1.0M each (16schools/16M). And if this is the best CUSA can do, it makes me question why Brittan Banowsky was so hell bent on expanding to 16 schools in CUSA.

  6. #111
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    Hey '06, does the $16M TV contract amount for CUSA include basketball? Or just football? And if it includes just football, does that mean the CUSA men's basketball contract is still marketable to the networks?

    Let's pretend for a moment I'm your CEO, and you are my auditor. I'm trying to get an honest "apples to apples" comparison of TV revenues ONLY between the 2 conferences. Unfortunately, I feel like you are purposely "cookin the books" to show only the best outcome for the Big East. For example, you eagerly volunteered the men's basketball TV revenue for the 18 Big East schools (which will obviously be negatively impacted when the Catholic 7 and others LEAVE!), but you failed to mention the TV revenue for CUSA men's basketball. You would likely be fired for that omission in most companies.:icon_wink:

    Just give it to us straight. When 2014-15 arrives, and the Catholic 7, Louisville & Cincinnati aren't around anymore, how will the 2 TV contracts compare then? I already know the Big East has the better contract, so you can quit being defensive about that. I'm trying to ascertain how closely the 2 contracts compare.
    The Big East has a bunch of non-football schools so there are separate contracts for football and basketball. When C-USA signed their TV deals a couple years ago, all 12 members had a football team. Thus, C-USA's TV contracts did not separate football from basketball.

    This table is my best guess at what the average TV revenue distributions per school will look like for both conferences. I made a lot of assumptions.

    Average TV Revenue Estimates Per School
    2013-14
    2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
    Big East
    $2 million $2.2 million $2 million $2 million $2 million $2 million $2 million
    C-USA $1 million $1.2 million $1.2 million new contract new contract new contract new contract
    C-USA's TV contracts expire on June 30, 2016. That means C-USA will have to begin renegotiating their TV contracts in 2015. I expect a reduction in TV revenue beginning with the 2016-17 year because the current contract was negotiated for the current 12-team C-USA including Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa.

    It's important to keep in mind that there's a big difference in TV exposure between the two conferences:
    - The Big East will play their games on the ESPN family of networks and CBS.
    - C-USA will play their games on the Fox Sports family of networks and CBS Sports Network. Only the C-USA football championship game will be on the ESPN family.
    Last edited by Dawg06; 02-24-2013 at 02:33 AM.

  7. #112
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    http://espn.go.com/college-sports/st...tv-rights-deal


    The Big East's new deal is worth less per school than its current ESPN deal and six times less than what ESPN presented two years ago.

    Sources said CBS also will extend its men's basketball rights with the Big East, paying the league about an additional $2 million annually. That will bring the Big East's total media rights value (including mens basketball) to about $22 million annually, starting in 2014 and, based on a 12-team league, worth about $1.8 million per school annually.

    There it is. In writing. So, beginning 2014, the new Big East will be making $1.8M per school while CUSA will be making $1.2M per school (your figure, which includes more schools, by the way!).

    Plus, CUSA will renegotiate its TV contract(s) in 2015. Unlike you '06, I'm not convinced that CUSA will see a decrease in it's annual TV contract. Yes, since the last TV contract negotiation CUSA has lost schools from the Houston (UH), Dallas (SMU), Orlando (UCF), New Orleans (Tulame), Greenville (ECU) and Memphis (the community college) TV markets. And of course Tulsa is waiting in the wings. But in the same process CUSA has picked up schools in Dallas (UNT), Miami (FXU), Charlotte, Nashville (MTSU), San Antonio (UTSA) and the state of Louisiana (LA Tech). And it appears that CUSA may still retain a representative in the Houston market (Rice).

    There's a lot of market "tradeoffs" in that previous paragraph. So, there is at least a chance that CUSA's TV contract revenues could actually increase due to the number of teams and new markets involved.




    HD

  8. #113
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Navy won't get any Big East basketball money. They'll only get a share of the $10 million annually for football and would not receive any shares of the $12 million annually for basketball. They neglected to take that into account. There's still no guarantee that East Carolina will receive an all-sports invitation to the Big East, but I'm assuming they will.

  9. #114
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    I actually think that HD is more likely to be right than not. I don't think that C*USA's contract goes down. C*USA 2.0 got more than 1.0, despite replacing TCU/Cincy/UL/USF/Army with mostly less valuable schools. There's reason to believe this will continue with C*USA 3.0. On the other hand, the same logic by which they looked at the Big East as Conference USA Redux, they might look at C*USA as SBC/FCS redux, and both of those conferences (SBC particularly) were worth less than Conference USA.

    But, at the very least, I would not take it for granted that C*USA is going to take a haircut next time around.
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  10. #115
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by parialex View Post
    I actually think that HD is more likely to be right than not. I don't think that C*USA's contract goes down. C*USA 2.0 got more than 1.0, despite replacing TCU/Cincy/UL/USF/Army with mostly less valuable schools. There's reason to believe this will continue with C*USA 3.0. On the other hand, the same logic by which they looked at the Big East as Conference USA Redux, they might look at C*USA as SBC/FCS redux, and both of those conferences (SBC particularly) were worth less than Conference USA.

    But, at the very least, I would not take it for granted that C*USA is going to take a haircut next time around.
    C-USA 2.0 got more than C-USA 1.0 for several reasons.

    C-USA 1.0 signed their 1st tier rights to ESPN, and ESPN doesn't have to pay as much as other networks because they offer significantly more exposure than any other sports network due to a large viewership by default. C-USA 2.0 signed with Fox instead of ESPN, and Fox had to offer significantly more than ESPN to offset Fox Sport's significantly lower viewership. ESPN's value is much greater than just the revenue that they offer.

    Sports TV money has exploded over the last several years. See all the BCS AQ conferences. They basically have the same membership, but their projected TV revenues have skyrocketed with their new TV deals. It's no surprise that C-USA 2.0's contract also increased when signed in 2011. But how much longer will these deals continue to skyrocket before the bubble bursts? I think sooner rather than later because everybody is signing extremely long term contracts right now.

    You can't accurately compare TV contracts across different time periods and unequal networks. That's apples to oranges.

  11. #116
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    C-USA 2.0 got more than C-USA 1.0 for several reasons.

    C-USA 1.0 signed their 1st tier rights to ESPN, and ESPN doesn't have to pay as much as other networks because they offer significantly more exposure than any other sports network due to a large viewership by default. C-USA 2.0 signed with Fox instead of ESPN, and Fox had to offer significantly more than ESPN to offset Fox Sport's significantly lower viewership. ESPN's value is much greater than just the revenue that they offer.

    Sports TV money has exploded over the last several years. See all the BCS AQ conferences. They basically have the same membership, but their projected TV revenues have skyrocketed with their new TV deals. It's no surprise that C-USA 2.0's contract also increased when signed in 2011. But how much longer will these deals continue to skyrocket before the bubble bursts? I think sooner rather than later because everybody is signing extremely long term contracts right now.

    You can't accurately compare TV contracts across different time periods and unequal networks. That's apples to oranges.
    You might be right about contracts across time, but I think CBSSN is still going to want the contract and will be willing to pay for it. It could also be NBCSN's chance to pick up content. The bottom of all of this could fall out, but thus far the only conferences that took a haircut are the WAC and the Big East and both of those were hit really hard with realignment. Was C*USA hit that hard? Not sure

    The ESPN/Fox is not an issue, though. The most recent contract was signed with Fox and ESPN, but the contract I am talking about was signed in early 2005 (after it was known who was going to be in the conference, right before C*USA 2.0 started). That was with ESPN and CSTV/CBS. Also, ESPN took C*USA to court because they were allegedly willing to match Fox's offer but were not given the opportunity to.
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  12. #117
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Great discussion. I love financial stuff!

    But...I have a simple question: when the Dawgs are on the road, esp. at some distant venue, will I be able to us play on my lil TV right here in old Natchitoches?

  13. #118
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    Great discussion. I love financial stuff!

    But...I have a simple question: when the Dawgs are on the road, esp. at some distant venue, will I be able to us play on my lil TV right here in old Natchitoches?
    No. You still need electricity in your double-wide.

  14. #119
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Oakland leaves the Summit for the Horizon.
    http://www.ougrizzlies.com/genrel/050713aaa.html

    Opening post updated.

  15. #120
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    Re: Comprehensive Conference Realignment Thread

    Updated Davidson from the SoCon to the A-10
    http://www.atlantic10.com/genrel/050813aab.html

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