Originally Posted by
Dawg06
Boyd's World has an updated expected runs table for the new bats. As expected, the numbers changed a little, but none of the relationships changed.
Runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs... 1.79 expected runs... .71 chance to score at least 1 run...
Sim calls for Arnsberg to sac bunt.
Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out... 1.56 expected runs... .73 chance to score at least 1 run...
And the rest is history.
If Sim was playing for extra innings, he increased our chances by .02 with the sac bunt.
If Sim was playing for the win, he decreased our expected runs by .23 with the sac bunt.
Sim chose to play for extra innings instead of for the win, and we lost.