It would not surprise me if this is being driven by Fox. They one thing Fox needs over the next five to 10 years is live content for FS1 and FS2. The have an impressive lineup but will still be far behind ESPN in live programming.
The more we've learned about the Big East basketball schools' agreement with Fox, it's obvious Fox is willing to make monetary guarantees on the condition their promises aren't shopped to other networks to create a bidding war.
I've never been able to confirm it, and nothing has ever been published about it, but I suspect Banowsky has a handshake agreement with Fox that might be more lucrative than many suspect when the next TV deal is put into place.
The rumor in 2011 was that Fox was behind the Mountain West-CUSA alliance/merger. If it had come to fruition, Fox was promising $4.0 to $4.5 million per year for every school involved. Those rumors have much more validity now that we're able to see what Fox's plans are for multiple sports networks. They knew 18 months ago just how much live content they were needing to capture.
Given the fact Fox may be behind a push for additional live content, going to 16 schools would make sense. It would also reduce travel costs. I don't think CUSA's next deal with Fox will ever approach what was being offered to the Alliance schools, but I think it will be much more than the exposure deal the Sun Belt will have through 2017 when its ESPN deal ends - if the Belt is around that long.
Speaking of which. So would a CUSA expansion kill off the Sun Belt? I actually think it probably would.
Odds are, The American will need to replace four to six schools it will lose in the expansion game over the next 15 months - if not sooner. For many reasons, I tend to believe the number will be six.
That means CUSA will be looking for eight new members. That group includes ASU, UL-Lafayette, Texas State, NMSU, USA, Georgia State, JMU, and App State. Even if CUSA is looking for six new members, I still think the Belt folds. App State and JMU would not be in that mix, and I think App. State and Georgia Southern would back out of the Belt at that point and just not move up to the FBS. It would also scare off schools like Liberty and Jacksonville State. That would be the end.
And that would actually have another benefit for the schools in The American. The ESPN Plus programming that went to the WAC and Sun Belt over the past five years would almost certainly end up with The American, given its ESPN deal.