2013-14 MBB Ratings Watch

[champion110]

With a 68-team field, almost the Top 50 RPI should be guaranteed spots. Top 30 should be a no-brainer, and I would have no problem with a rule being set saying that a final Top 30 RPI team automatically qualifies to take it out of the committee's hands. I would not be in favor of going much beyond 30 with that type of rule though.

The problem with rpi is that it is not based on the best teams. The polls are not either. RPI has the added problem of teams loading up on a good schedule and losing, but still rising in rpi. That is why a subpar B12 team will get in over a WAC champion that loses in the conference tournament (last year).

There is no way to control who you play in conference or how your OOC conference will stack up when building the schedule. Tech deserved to be in the NCAA's last year more than about 20 other teams - certainly more than some conference champs from weak conferences.

I don't have the answer, but rpi is not it. When someone creates something that is fair, it should and will be used. Until then, RPI is about all we have - other than polls, which are very biased.

[PawDawg]

I don't have the answer, but rpi is not it. When someone creates something that is fair, it should and will be used. Until then, RPI is about all we have - other than polls, which are very biased.

KenPom Ratings

[champion110]

KenPom Ratings

I do like this for predictions and it could be loosely used for ratings. It still uses strength of schedule and many teams don't have control of that, but there is probably no getting around it.

[RealityCheck]

RPIs as of 12:00 CT 12/31/2013 from warrennolan.com

13 Oklahoma State (SOS 40)
35 Southern Miss (SOS 167)
41 St. Mary's (SOS 64)
46 Oklahoma (SOS 97)
70 ULL (SOS 108)
90 Louisiana Tech (SOS 222)
94 ULM (SOS 8)
101 UAB (SOS 218)
108 Jackson State (SOS 32)
118 Charlotte (SOS 190)
129 UTEP (SOS 120)
137 Northwestern State (SOS 24)
146 St. Bonaventure (SOS 312)
180 Tulsa (SOS 33)
183 Middle Tennessee (SOS 257)
208 East Carolina (SOS 307)
215 FIU (SOS 287)
218 Southern (SOS 37)
224 McNeese State (SOS 10)
227 North Texas (SOS 265)
240 Rice (SOS 201)
242 Illinois-Chicago (SOS 149)
252 Marshall (SOS 113)
257 UNC-Greensboro (SOS 198)
260 ODU (SOS 217)
292 Tulane (SOS 311)
301 Longwood (SOS 185)
303 FAU (SOS 185)
335 UCA (SOS 254)
351 UTSA (worst RPI and SOS)

I am no longer using realtimerpi.com since that site is not calculating RPIs correctly...it shows Tech at 81 today since it has the UNC-Greensboro and Oklahoma State games incorrectly listed as away games (they were both neutral site games).

[HogDawg]

RPIs as of 12:00 CT 12/31/2013 from warrennolan.com

13 Oklahoma State (SOS 40)
35 Southern Miss (SOS 167)
41 St. Mary's (SOS 64)
46 Oklahoma (SOS 97)
70 ULL (SOS 108)
90 Louisiana Tech (SOS 222)
94 ULM (SOS 8)
101 UAB (SOS 218)
108 Jackson State (SOS 32)
118 Charlotte (SOS 190)
129 UTEP (SOS 120)
137 Northwestern State (SOS 24)
146 St. Bonaventure (SOS 312)
180 Tulsa (SOS 33)
183 Middle Tennessee (SOS 257)
208 East Carolina (SOS 307)
215 FIU (SOS 287)
218 Southern (SOS 37)
224 McNeese State (SOS 10)
227 North Texas (SOS 265)
240 Rice (SOS 201)
242 Illinois-Chicago (SOS 149)
252 Marshall (SOS 113)
257 UNC-Greensboro (SOS 198)
260 ODU (SOS 217)
292 Tulane (SOS 311)
301 Longwood (SOS 185)
303 FAU (SOS 185)
335 UCA (SOS 254)
351 UTSA (worst RPI and SOS)

I am no longer using realtimerpi.com since that site is not calculating RPIs correctly...it shows Tech at 81 today since it has the UNC-Greensboro and Oklahoma State games incorrectly listed as away games (they were both neutral site games).

.....and yet, ULM is right there with us. How can this be? Seriously?

[RealityCheck]

.....and yet, ULM is right there with us. How can this be? Seriously?

Did you not notice the SOS factor difference between Tech and ULM?...that is 75% of RPI.

After 12/31 games, Tech is now at 87 (SOS 221) and ULM is at 94 (SOS 8).

Tech RPI = .5537 (ranked 87)
RPI record (25%) = 10.4 wins, 3 losses, .7761 (3-1 home, 3-1 neutral, 4-1 away)
SOS (75%) = .4796 (ranked 221)

.7761 x 25% = .1940
.4796 x 75% = .3597
sum (RPI) = .5537

ULM RPI = .5468 (ranked 94)
RPI record (25%) = 2 wins, 3.8 losses, .3448 (1-1 home, 1-4 away)
SOS (75%) = .6142 (ranked 8), played Kansas (1), Ohio State (8), LSU (23), Ole Miss (74), Tech (87), NW State (135), Samford (318)

.3448 x 25% = .0862
.6142 x 75% = .4606
sum (RPI) = .5468

[Dwayne From Minden]

You schedule who you are able to schedule...

When every SEC team you call tells you thanks but NO thanks - there is not much you can do

We had 3 real good OOC away games - Okie St, OU and St Mary's

A decent tourney in a very FERTILE recruiting ground that had San Diego and St Bonaventure in the field

That's 1/3 of the OOC schedule -

We have NO buy games at home and no one fromt the American, A-10, MAC or MWC is going to give us a home and home - they all BUY home games

[RealityCheck]

Saint Bonaventure is just now starting to make an RPI move...9-4 with RPI recently up to 143 (SOS 310).
Illinois-Chicago is bad...3-9, RPI at 242 with a 145 SOS.
Same with UNC-Greensboro...4-8, RPI 253, SOS 195.

Even San Diego is only 7-6, 208 RPI, SOS 277.

The tournament was nice to win, but it isn't exactly giving Tech an RPI boost. It was better than having Longwood (304 RPI) and UCA (331 RPI) on the OOC schedule.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Like I said - you schedule who you can schedule...

When you are coming off of a 27 year season and a win in the NIT at FSU alot of regional teams are going to tell you thanks but NO THANKS

And IF we thought last year was tough to schedule wait until he tries to put one together for NEXT year if we have another 24+ win season after the win at OU and a decent showing vs OSU and St Mary's

And odds are we will NOT be renewing the juco series so we will have to find another slot - maybe 4 more slots

Very very difficult with a senior laden team

[RealityCheck]

Like I said - you schedule who you can schedule...

When you are coming off of a 27 year season and a win in the NIT at FSU alot of regional teams are going to tell you thanks but NO THANKS

And IF we thought last year was tough to schedule wait until he tries to put one together for NEXT year if we have another 24+ win season after the win at OU and a decent showing vs OSU and St Mary's

And odds are we will NOT be renewing the juco series so we will have to find another slot - maybe 4 more slots

Very very difficult with a senior laden team

Other schools find a way to get it done. Not saying it will be easy, but that is where the conference office has to step in and solicit help along with our TV partners to get games set up.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Other schools find a way to get it done. Not saying it will be easy, but that is where the conference office has to step in and solicit help along with our TV partners to get games set up.

How do you think we landed St Mary's at the last minute?

[HoDo-Tech70]

Look to the Missouri Valley Conference for some ideas. Here's an old (2006) USAToday story about how the MVC increased their RPI by scheduling for success - http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/mvc/2006-03-03-tournament-hopes_x.htm

[RealityCheck]

How do you think we landed St Mary's at the last minute?

The conference office did help, but with no TV for that game there wasn't that angle involved.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Look to the Missouri Valley Conference for some ideas. Here's an old (2006) USAToday story about how the MVC increased their RPI by scheduling for success - http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/mvc/2006-03-03-tournament-hopes_x.htm

But correct me if I'm wrong, the rpi was "tweaked" after that to keep a lower conference from doing that any more - they had like 6 teams in the tourney that year and 5 went out in the first round by sizeable margins of defeat

The key is trying to schedule as many teams around the 150 rpi level as possible and hoping your conference mates do the same

[boxerdog]

I like UAB's schedule.