UMass declines full MACtion, football gets kicked out

[hookdown]

I am still of the opinion the P5 conferences will all eventually get to 16.

If that happens, they will still need to add another 16 teams (if my math is correct, and not including ND in the ACC) from the non-AQ ranks between them to get there. I am pretty confident that the B1G and SEC will not add current non-AQs. They will raid the other power conferences. PAC 12 may, if they feel any are quality west coast schools available (I am not sure there are any out west, at least according to their standards). That would leave the Big 12 and ACC to take a bunch of non-AQ's. Which 16 would that be? Probably these to start off with as almost guaranteed to move up:

UConn
Houston
USF
Cincinnati


After those schools, there are no sure fire "must haves". I would think that SMU, Memphis, UCF, Tulane, ECU, New Mexico, and SDSU would probably have good shots, but no guarantees. That still leaves five other openings. Buffalo, Temple, Tulsa, Fresno State, Hawaii, Marshall, Rice, Ohio, UMass? Maybe, but really starting to reach now. Nothing against those schools, but if they were AQ candidates, they would already be in an AQ conference by now. Just saying that to fill out those final slots is going to be taking the "best of the worst" in the AQ way of thinking. I am not sure they can do that and remain a power conference.

Just thinking that five 16 member power conferences may be a bit much, which is why I guessed that one of them may be relegated to AAC status.

[Champ967]

B1G steals UNC and UVA?
SEC steals Florida State and Virginia Tech?
PAC 12 steals Texas, OU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas (basketball)?

Most analysts agree that the ACC's & Big12's waivers of rights make the scenarios you describe incredibly unlikely. Even if a member of those conferences were to leave, the new conference would be prohibited from broadcasting any of the school's games.

But I gather you disagree with that assessment ...

I think that Big10 expansion is going to focus on Vandy, Mizzou, and (yes) Buffalo.

[sportdawg]

Most analysts agree that the ACC's & Big12's waivers of rights make the scenarios you describe incredibly unlikely. Even if a member of those conferences were to leave, the new conference would be prohibited from broadcasting any of the school's games.

But I gather you disagree with that assessment ...

I think that Big10 expansion is going to focus on Vandy, Mizzou, and (yes) Buffalo.

There is a Price for everything!!!

[hookdown]

Most analysts agree that the ACC's & Big12's waivers of rights make the scenarios you describe incredibly unlikely. Even if a member of those conferences were to leave, the new conference would be prohibited from broadcasting any of the school's games.

Unlikely yes. But never say never when lawyers and large sums of money are involved.

I just threw those names out there as possibles. AAU membership is almost a certain, if unwritten, requirement for B1G membership.

Non-B1G AAU membership (BCS members):

Duke
Georgia Tech
Iowa State
Rice
Texas A&M
Tulane
University of Arizona
University of Buffalo
University of California
University of California, Los Angeles
University of Colorado
University of Florida
University of Kansas
University of Missouri
University of North Carolina
University of Oregon
University of Pittsburgh
University of Southern California
University of Texas
University of Virginia
University of Washington
Vanderbilt University


Better than even chance any B1G expansion comes from that list (ND excepted). Throw out the PAC 12 and SEC schools. I do not see anybody leaving the SEC for the B1G, not even Vandy.

Only three schools on that list come with no strings attached, Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane. Only one of those are in the B1G geographic footprint, Buffalo. Sorry, the B1G and Buffalo do not fit together, not even with AAU membership. And unless the B1G just wants a presence in Louisiana and Texas, I do not see Rice and Tulane being viable choices either. Their chances are only somewhat less than the proverbial snowball....


So unless one is willing to say, and I am not, that Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane are legitmate contenders for B1G membership, all that are left are schools with lots of legal issues (in terms of changing conferences). Thus, enter the lawyers and money. Freedom can always be had for a price.

[The Historian]

Unlikely yes. But never say never when lawyers and large sums of money are involved.

I just threw those names out there as possibles. AAU membership is almost a certain, if unwritten, requirement for B1G membership.

Non-B1G AAU membership (BCS members):

Duke
Georgia Tech
Iowa State
Rice
Texas A&M
Tulane
University of Arizona
University of Buffalo
University of California
University of California, Los Angeles
University of Colorado
University of Florida
University of Kansas
University of Missouri
University of North Carolina
University of Oregon
University of Pittsburgh
University of Southern California
University of Texas
University of Virginia
University of Washington
Vanderbilt University


Better than even chance any B1G expansion comes from that list (ND excepted). Throw out the PAC 12 and SEC schools. I do not see anybody leaving the SEC for the B1G, not even Vandy.

Only three schools on that list come with no strings attached, Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane. Only one of those are in the B1G geographic footprint, Buffalo. Sorry, the B1G and Buffalo do not fit together, not even with AAU membership. And unless the B1G just wants a presence in Louisiana and Texas, I do not see Rice and Tulane being viable choices either. Their chances are only somewhat less than the proverbial snowball....


So unless one is willing to say, and I am not, that Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane are legitmate contenders for B1G membership, all that are left are schools with lots of legal issues (in terms of changing conferences). Thus, enter the lawyers and money. Freedom can always be had for a price.

For the Big 10 it will be 2 out of a group of 3 potential schools: Missouri, UConn, and Vanderbilt. In the end it will likely be Missouri and UConn.

If offered, Missouri will accept. It is the offer they covet. It will mean the possibility of more than $100 million more per year on the academic/research side. They will not turn it down. UConn is not an AAU member. But if you combine their academic rankings with the Big 10 academic consortium, it's easy to see them becoming a member in the decade after joining the conference.

[The Historian]

There is a Price for everything!!!

Correct. And the price of giving up 100% of tv revenue it too steep for any of them to pay. Besides, none of them are interested. They are all comfortable with the stability of their current situations.

[Dawg06]

Back to Benson, the Belch, and UMass... I don't think UMass will get a FB-only invite from the Belch. I think Benson will try to use UMass as leverage to force JMU into accepting an invite. Will it work? IDK. Benson has a long track record. He wants 10 basketball schools for scheduling purposes and a travel partner for App State to reduce travel costs more than he wants a football conference championship pillow fight for pennies. Benson will push for inviting Liberty before he would ever recommend adding UMass.

[The Historian]

Just thinking that five 16 member power conferences may be a bit much, which is why I guessed that one of them may be relegated to AAC status.

It's hard to accept the fact that the P5 leagues will invite schools that appear to be "beneath them". But the Big 10 took Rutgers and will likely take UConn. Because of its in-house network, the ACC will almost certainly invite Temple. Cincy will end up either in the ACC with Temple or in the SEC as backfill when Missouri leaves for the Big 10.

The conference with the weakest television deal will end up "picking last" so to speak. That would be the Big 12. It will have to pick 6 after the other four leagues have raided the G5 cupboard.