The last game for Marshall was a common opponent, as well. We had no trouble with WKU. I think it is more the record that they are focused upon.Originally Posted by StrayDawg
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The last game for Marshall was a common opponent, as well. We had no trouble with WKU. I think it is more the record that they are focused upon.
Much, much more than record. They know who it hurt, who is rumored not to play, coaching situations, and even some of the drama that fans don't know about. It's amazing what they know and/or find out in order to set these lines. Once the lines are set, the wagers determine movement.
It is a science and the only thing close to the original line setting seems to be Sagarin. When the original line and Sagarin are way different, as was this for week's Marshall game, then SOMETHING is up.
it doesn't seem to be a very accurate science, based on both teams recent outings. That is why the game is played, though.
They didn't base it on recent outings alone. They also factored in players who played in the recent outings who may not be playing today.it doesn't seem to be a very accurate science, based on both teams recent outings. That is why the game is played, though.
I am saying that based on their predictions of both teams performance last week, they don't predict very well.
In other words, what was the line for Marshall/WKU game? What was the line for Tech/Rice game? They were off by a long shot.
the vegas line is not an attempt to predict the outcome of the game -- it is an attempt to split the betting evenly. the final line is indicative of what the general betting public thinks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting
Betting on sporting events has long been the most popular form of spread betting. Whilst most bets the casino offers to players have a built in house edge, betting on the spread offers an opportunity for the astute gambler. When a casino accepts a spread bet, it gives the player the odds of 10 to 11, or -110. That means that for every 11 dollars the player wagers, he will win 10, slightly lower than an even money bet. If team A is playing team B, the casino is not concerned with who wins the game; they are only concerned with taking an equal amount of money of both sides. For example, if one player takes team A and the other takes team B and each wager $110 to win $100, it doesn’t matter what team wins; the casino makes money. They will take $100 of the $110 from the losing bet and pay the winner, keeping the extra $10 for themselves; this is the house edge. The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit. This also explains how money can be made by the astute gambler. If casinos set lines to encourage an equal amount of money on both sides, it sets them based on the public perception of the team, not necessarily the real strength of the teams. Many things can affect public perception, which will move the line away from what the real line should be. This gap between the Vegas line, the real line and differences between other sports books betting lines and spreads is where value can be found. Once you find the value in a line, and identify your correct winning percentage, you can input those numbers into a Kelly calculator to determine proper size of the wager to make.
Believe me, I understand the concept. I am just stating that I would take the bet and run with it. You could be wealthy if you bet a lot against the spread in the two games above.
Early money took Tech points- late money half point marshal. About 6 points plus hfa-- captain obvious says rain not factored in-on line-We all just killing of nervous energy till kickoff talking about Vegas
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