9/19 La Tech vs K-State Game Thread

[Gooddawg]

I assumed this was a penalty we were forced to take and could not decline at gametime. I can't believe anyone thinks he should have taken the penalty regradless of outcome. This was a dumb mistake. In OT the best scenario is a turnover for your D, a close second is to hold them to a FG. Especially when you get the ball last. It would have been 4th and 3, NO WAY they go for it and risk getting zero points. Give them the 3 points and win the game with a TD. At worst you kick a FG and start over but you are still in the game. Giving them another play no matter the yardage doesn't make any sense. You get the ball on the 25 they had picked up one first down so they were on the 28 or close so even if you stop them on 3rd and 16, they are going to make the FG. Makes zero sense. Even if we had held them to a FG that was a bad call because you gave them an extra chance to score basically in the red zone. I am shocked 100% of knowledgeable football fans or people who played think this was the right decision.

I like Holtz and appreciate everything he has done, which is considerable I believe but this and the Tulane play are 100% wrong decision every time IMO. Now on to the rest of the schedule and win some games. Losing sucks.

[T1]

I assumed this was a penalty we were forced to take and could not decline at gametime. I can't believe anyone thinks he should have taken the penalty regradless of outcome. This was a dumb mistake. In OT the best scenario is a turnover for your D, a close second is to hold them to a FG. Especially when you get the ball last. It would have been 4th and 3, NO WAY they go for it and risk getting zero points. Give them the 3 points and win the game with a TD. At worst you kick a FG and start over but you are still in the game. Giving them another play no matter the yardage doesn't make any sense. You get the ball on the 25 they had picked up one first down so they were on the 28 or close so even if you stop them on 3rd and 16, they are going to make the FG. Makes zero sense. Even if we had held them to a FG that was a bad call because you gave them an extra chance to score basically in the red zone. I am shocked 100% of knowledgeable football fans or people who played think this was the right decision.

I like Holtz and appreciate everything he has done, which is considerable I believe but this and the Tulane play are 100% wrong decision every time IMO. Now on to the rest of the schedule and win some games. Losing sucks.

Based on his press conference, I think Holtz agrees with you, but opted for your first option (turnover / no points) more than you second option (hold them to a FG). He said he didn't want to give them the 3 points. He thought a 15 yard penalty was significant.... would have declined 5 or 10 yard penalty.

You know how it turned out so that's why your opinion is sound. But you have to imagine what the game would have been like if we had intercepted the 3rd and 16 pass. What if it was incomplete and they missed the 48 yard FG? What if they completed a 5 yard pass and then fumbled it? What if they only got 13 yards and had to try the same FG anyway? A lot could have happened on a 3rd and 16 play. The worst happened because we didn't cover one of their receivers.

[gabzooks]

I wonder what the percentages are for picking up 3rd and 16 in college football.

If this dude's research is trustworthy (compiled in 2013), somewhere between 15 and 20%

[gabzooks]

Who knows the reliability of this compilation of NCAA overtime stats, but doing a cursory search there's just not much out there. Giving the research the benefit of the doubt for the sake of discussion:

• Teams going offense-first in any session of overtime score at least 3 points 75% of the time. So there's only a 25% chance of holding the team scoreless, which seems Holtz was intending by accepting the penalty and allowing the 3rd down replay.
• But, if Holtz concedes the FG attempt (on 4th and 1 or 3, whatever it would have been) and KState makes it... then the stats indicate that when the first team scores a FG, there's a 49% chance of the 2nd team scoring a TD or a 28% chance of tying with a FG, with only a 23% of coming away with 0 and losing. So, the likelihood of us scoring at least a FG to tie was greater than the likelihood of holding KState scoreless.

• Further -- and this seems most substantial to me -- the 3rd overtime changes everything ... teams being forced to go for 2 pt conversion. Giving KState another opportunity to convert a first down gives them another opportunity to score 6 or possibly 8. The stats indicate that if the 1st team scores 6 there's only a 30% chance of the 2nd team tying with 6 or 4% chance of winning with 8. If KState would have scored TD +2pt conversion, there's only a 19% chance of the 2nd team tying with 8.

It seems to me, that in any overtime session, if the defense-first team holds the offense-first team to only 3pts, it's a successful session. But moreso in the third overtime, as that prevents the team from scoring the less-likely-to-be-matched 6 pts or especially the 8pts.

That said, it seems that the best decision -- particularly in the 3rd overtime -- is to concede the 33-yard FG attempt on 4th down [Snyder ain't gambling there]. Tech's likelihood of winning dropped from 49% (conceding the FG attempt/make, but countering with a TD) to 4% (giving up a TD, and countering with TD+2)(getting 7pts to win in 1st or 2nd session is 32% chance). Also, Tech's likelihood of at least tying dropped from 77% (conceding the FG, and countering with at least a FG) to 66% (giving up a TD, and countering with at least TD) to 19% (giving up a TD+2 and tying with a TD+2).

I know that stats don't tell the whole story, but there may be something to what it indicates. To me, the discussion is hardly about hindsight. It seemed like a worthless risk in realtiime, whether the outcome worked in Holtz's favor or not. Surely there has to be some kind of consensus among coaches and other experts on decisions like these.

(( For a not exact, but similarly scrutinized decision see Chip Kelly Eagles v 49ers 2014. Regarding the speculation of Snyder having a wild hair and gambling on 4th and 1 in OT, it has been done -- Dabo comes to mind ))

[gabzooks]

Sorry for the wall of text and hot air.
TL;DR -- 3rd overtime, concede FG attempt not another opportunity at 6 or 8... percentages in your favor. (Of course, the percentages were in our favor on the 3rd and 16, too -- see chart above).

[OLDBLUE]

I'm sure all these itterations were running through the coach's mind in those few seconds he had to make that decision.
Sorry, but you will have to believe, I thought he made the correct decision at the moment.

Now, about Saturday. (The horse is dead)

[gabzooks]

I'm sure all these itterations were running through the coach's mind in those few seconds he had to make that decision.

I'm sure the scenarios went through many coaches/fans' minds in realtime, sans any of the convoluted stats. Made me scratch my head and raise my eyebrows in realtime when he made the decision he made.

Now, about Saturday. (The horse is dead)

The thread, started today, was about last Saturday's game. There's other different threads -- more to come -- about the upcoming game. Totally within the framework of a sports message board, I would think.

[PawDawg]

The thread, started today, was about last Saturday's game. There's other different threads -- more to come -- about the upcoming game. Totally within the framework of a sports message board, I would think.

Yes. If the punt and hold by the defense had not resulted in the FG and tying score, we'd be cussing and discussing whether or not he should have gone for it on 4th down. I'll say I didn't agree with that call. He did a good job of defending that call, but coming out to the good makes it easier to defend.

[faninmonroe]

You decline the penalty and put the ball in their court with the way our D line was controlling the line of scrimmage at that point. We opted to let them attack our weakest point on the D at this point....the secondary.

Let them get and you get a shot at the win....never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never give the opposing team another chance at the 1st down

[Dwayne From Minden]

In its simplest form, it's the same as giving the opposing team in baseball an additional out or walking the first batter in the bottom of the 9th in a scoreless game

In most situations, it gets you beat

[MiloBumP]

Ifs and buts and candy and nuts...game against a team that is playing better than expected...should be a good test of our team's ability to rebound and move on. We need a statement game and a good crowd. Be there to support your team. I anticipate the crowd being bigger against ULL than FIU just because of the opponent. We need the win and the momentum. GO BULLDOGS!!!

[T1]

I can't think of a good baseball analogy because I can't think of a circumstance in baseball where the other team makes a mistake and the coach has the option to enforce the mistake or refuse to enforce the mistake. Maybe a left handed reliever comes in to pitch to your best hitter who's a left-handed batter and you can either stick with your best hitter or go to the right-handed hitter who hits lefties really well.

If you pull your best hitter and the right-handed hitter gets out, it was probably a bad decision. But there is no guarantee that your stud lefty would have gotten a hit either. It's just playing the odds.

[T1]

Here's a better analogy: score is 1-1 in the Top of the 15th inning. Bases loaded, 2 outs and their best hitter is up. He's 4 for 5 on the day with 2 doubles and a 2 singles. You can intentionally walk him to guarantee only 1 run scores or you pitch to him to try to prevent any runs being scored. The guy behind him is 1 for 5 with a double back in the first inning and 3 strikeouts. What do you do?

[HogDawg]

I realize as a first time poster, I will get some smart a*# comments. In third overtime you make them kick the field goal to give your team the opportunity to win the game. As poor of a decision as I've seen Holtz make since his first year against Tulane. Sorry if this has been addressed in another post I don't have time to read em all. Thanks for letting me vent. Go dawgs!

You are absolutely correct. I posted something similar Saturday night immediately after the game. I went ballistic the moment Holtz accepted the penalty. I couldn't believe it. It's even harder to believe that we've got some die hard fans on this board that STILL go get it, and don't understand how bad that call was.

Green for you.

[HogDawg]

It's easy to second guess the decision given the outcome, if Thomason had turned a milli-second earlier or the replay official had paid attention where the receivers heel landed when he had control it would have been a genius call, because they would have to kick the field goal backed up. He put his faith in our Defense which had done well all game against K-State on those 3rd and long (6 of 16 3rd conversion, only 2 of those were greater than 5 yards). Lets go win out the rest of CUSA, upset MSU, and win our bowl game.

It ain't second guessing. I was screaming at the TV the moment he accepted the penalty. Everybody in our bar and Grill was laughing at Holtz for that call, even before the last play. It was stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid.

I hate it when people say its "second guessing". Save that kind of talk for yourself. I guess you say stuff like that because you weren't smart enough to make the right call in the first place like the rest of us.