Why are we conservative in the 2nd half?

[PawDawg]

Good work. Email those numbers to Teddy and I bet he will work them in to his pregame. He comes up with some entertaining stuff.

[T1]

I was kind of shocked to see that all we need is 27 points.... good defense sure makes it easier to win.

[stodgdog]

Other patterns.

6-7 when we score 14 or less in the 2nd half.
8-1 when we score more than 14 in the 2nd half. (WKU was the loss)


0-6 when we score less than 27 in the game. (Oklahoma, Auburn, ODU, Marshall, Miss St, Kansas St in regulation)... ODU doesn't belong in this group.
14-2 when scoring 27 or more in the game. (NW State and WKU were the losses). NW State doesn't belong.


So the 3 numbers to watch:

More than 17 pts in the 1st half. (we are 10-1)
More than 14 pts in the 2nd half. (we are 8-1)
More than 27 pts for the game. (we are 14-2)

That stat indicates that our defense, though not stellar, is capable of giving Tech a chance.

[T1]

And the only teams holding us under 27 are the P5 teams for the most part...plus Marshall and ODU?? (we had 24 at the half on them, just 1 FG in the 2nd half would have won it, we lost in OT).

[T1]

"27 points" goes back to 2013 too. We are 17-2 when we score 27 or more. We are 1-14 when we don't. (the 1 win was FIU in 2013... we scored 23 pts).

[T1]

I wonder if that's the "successful formula" Holtz speaks of? "If I get 28 points, I'm going to win 98% of the time."

[T1]

At Uconn he was 23-4 when scoring 27 or more.
At ECU he was 26-1 when scoring 27 or more.
At USF he was 11-5 when scoring 27 or more.
At Tech he is 17-2 when scoring 27 or more.

Total: 77-12 when scoring 27 or more points. (might have found a pattern here).

His winning percentage at 27 or more points is 87%.
His winning percentage at fewer than 27 points is 31%.

[HogDawg]

At Uconn he was 23-4 when scoring 27 or more.
At ECU he was 26-1 when scoring 27 or more.
At USF he was 11-5 when scoring 27 or more.
At Tech he is 17-2 when scoring 27 or more.

Total: 77-12 when scoring 27 or more points. (might have found a pattern here).

His winning percentage at 27 or more points is 87%.
His winning percentage at fewer than 27 points is 31%.

So Holtz should never let off the gas until his team has scored 27-30 points.

[T1]

So Holtz should never let off the gas until his team has scored 27-30 points.

Theoretically.... unless he feels it's futile.

[Blue Dawg]

The data backs up the perception: we are pedal-to-metal in the first half, but slack off in the 3rd quarter, followed by another spike in the 4th (of course, if we're losing then, it's probably too late).