3/2: #12 Arkansas game

[TrueBulldog1962]

Any coincidence that inning resulted in 2 hits, no runs, and our only runner LOB the entire game?

With that "successful" sac bunt, our runs scored probability dropped from scoring 1.07 runs to 0.82 runs.
With that "successful" sac bunt, our probability of scoring at least 1 run dropped from 49% to 47%.

But when I look at our stats, I see he had the lowest OBP in the lineup (.286) so the bunt was probably the right call in that situation.

C'mon '06 SSS to judge a guy OBP this early. Washam has had some huge hits for us early on.

[techman05]

In the words of GWB, I think there was good strategery and planification in our dugout. Nice work!

[Dawg06]

C'mon '06 SSS to judge a guy OBP this early. Washam has had some huge hits for us early on.

I'm not making any judgments on his hitting ability.

I hate sac bunting, which is why maddawg made the comment. In general, the numbers say we are better off hitting away. However, if I had to choose one guy to sac bunt, that's who I would pick. I know it's a small sample size, but it's the only numbers I have. And it's who Goff picked, his 8-hole hitter.

[TrueBulldog1962]

I'm not making any judgments on his hitting ability.

I hate sac bunting, which is why maddawg made the comment. In general, the numbers say we are better off hitting away. However, if I had to choose one guy to sac bunt, that's who I would pick. I know it's a small sample size, but it's the only numbers I have. And it's who Goff picked, his 8-hole hitter.

I agree, I hate bunting as well. The reason I like the decision at that point is this: adding an additional run right there is huge, and Hall had crushed two balls previously, then Stark is the best overall hitter on the team. In the 4th inning or something, no way I do sac bunt and give up an out. Analytics show that its definitely not the right play offensively.

[Dawg06]

um, help me understand why you try to steal third with one out

Because there's 13 more ways to score from 3rd with 1 out than from 2nd. It's not a bad call.

To add to this...

If Grant successfully steals 3B, our runs scored probability increases from scoring 0.82 runs to 1.14 runs.

If Grant successfully steals 3B, our probability of scoring at least 1 run increases from 47% to 73%. <--- Goff was playing for that one insurance run.

[DJDAWG]

To add to this...

If Grant successfully steals 3B, our runs scored probability increases from scoring 0.82 runs to 1.14 runs.

If Grant successfully steals 3B, our probability of scoring at least 1 run increases from 47% to 73%. <--- Goff was playing for that one insurance run.

Ah, but to get to that point, runner on third and one out, you have to get there. Meaning, you have to factor in the odds of a successful steal of third at that particular count and being the only runner on base and which side of the plate the batter was on. If this percentage is less than 50% .... then, what is the probability of scoring if he is thrown out; no runners on and two out?

All of the factors have to be added together.

[DJDAWG]

Valpo's schedule (2-6)... http://www.valpoathletics.com/baseba.../#.VtiDufkrJ9M

UNO beat them three times and Jacksonville State, twice.

11 errors in two UL Warhawk games.

Don't count them out cause they seem to be aggressive at the plate (they have six starters batting over .300 and another with four HRs and .278 avg.), but, their pitching ERA is a very bad 6.78. No one that has started has less than a 4.5 ERA.
Couple that with a .923 fielding percentage. Ours is .980.

Just noticed we are 23-28 in stolen base attempts. Wish that was broken out by base.

[HoDo-Tech70]

I'm not making any judgments on his hitting ability.

I hate sac bunting, which is why maddawg made the comment. In general, the numbers say we are better off hitting away. However, if I had to choose one guy to sac bunt, that's who I would pick. I know it's a small sample size, but it's the only numbers I have. And it's who Goff picked, his 8-hole hitter.

I think Dawg06 gets his statistics from Sabermetrics, or from something that evolved from Sabermetrics. Sabermetrics is simply a statistical study of baseball. Knowing percentages is a useful tool. However, Sabermetrics may not always be the best tool to use in each situation.

For example: What percentage of runners are successful at stealing 3rd base against the pitcher/catcher/3rd basemen combo playing the game for the Razorbacks? Are the pitcher, 2nd baseman, shortstop holding the runner close? Does the pitcher have a fast release? Is the pitcher fast? Does the catcher have a quick release? How accurate is the catcher's throw to 3rd? Those are things that should be considered and not just what the "universal sabermetrics" statistics show.

I grimaced at the 3rd base steal attempt at the time; however, I was not at the game to see all those things and had no knowledge of the scouting report. In the games I've seen, Coach Goff has a very high percentage of getting decisions right, even though it may not be "sabermetrically" correct. I'm hoping he'll continue making sound decisions that result wins. That's still too early to tell. C-USA has some good baseball teams.

The sac bunt is another area where baseball research gives "universal" statistics. However, it is my opinion that each decision about a sac bunt considers so many factors not considered in "universal" statistics. My belief is that sometimes it is better to sac bunt than hit away. It seems that Dawg06 may agree in a limited way for certain hitters with no outs and a runner on first in day games on the road against an Arkansas team from the SEC with an 8-0 record. (Just a joke, D06) I know you hate sac bunting generally.

FYI, no further comments on this subject for two weeks - self imposed restriction. Work issues pressing me right now. Got to finish up a lot before going to Birmingham next week for C-USA men's basketball tournament. GO DAWGS!!

[DJDAWG]

Just noticed that Tech is 23-28 on stolen base attempts. Love this, love putting pressure on the opponent's defense.

I'd kinda like to know what the stolen base percentage by base is.