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Yep. We are fighting for the G5 auto bid to the Cotton Bowl.Originally Posted by inudesu
Cotton Bowl: Group of 5 vs. at-large
Orange Bowl: ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. Big 12
Rose Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Fiesta Bowl: Top 4 semifinal
Peach Bowl: Top 4 semifinal
CFP Championship in Tampa: Semifinals winners
It depends on which P5 team the G5 goes up against. I think...
Non-playoff bowl selection criteria
In the two out of three years when a given New Year's Six bowl is not part of the playoff bracket, the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the following conferences or groups are selected as follows:[36][37]
- Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
- Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
- Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
- Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
- Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
- The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (The American, C-USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff.[36][37]
- The remaining five at-large bids are determined by committee rankings.[36][37]
- If the Big Ten or SEC champion is available for a non-playoff bowl in a year when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting semifinals, that team appears in either the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl, but not the Orange Bowl.[37]
- In the Orange Bowl, the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed at least three appearances during the eight non-playoff years, while Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice.[38]
- In non-playoff years, if the Orange Bowl matchup creates a regular-season rematch for the ACC representative, the bowl may choose to "skip over" the prescribed opponent from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame group and select the next highest-ranked team from the group. The team that was rejected would be placed in one of the three at-large bowls, if it meets ranking standards.[39]
- In years when the Orange Bowl is a national semifinal, the ACC champion plays in the Fiesta or Peach bowls if it is not selected for the playoff.[40]
- In choosing the pairings for the four non-playoff bowls, the committee tries to create "the most compelling matchups possible", while taking into account geography and team rematches from both the regular season and recent bowls.
The best case scenario would be for Houston to go undefeated (with the rest of the AAC being comparable to last year). The P5 conferences would need to lose a little luster by the G5's having a decent showing against them in OOC play. Then if the P5 glam schools could lose a couple of games in conference, Houston would have a chance. If Houston were to be included in the playoff, would another G5 be put in the Cotton Bowl?
Have you considered those Dogs?
No. There's only 1 auto bid for the highest ranked G5 conference champion.
I think it's pretty well locked in this year.
There may be some flexibility in there for the Orange Bowl to take a team other than what falls to them through the normal process, but even if there is, there is no way they take Houston or Boise over Notre Dame or a top 2 team from the ACC/SEC/Big10.
But the G5 school is typically going to rotate between the Cotton, Peach, and Fiesta because those are the only ones without both sides of the draw committed. And this year, 2/3 of them are hosting the playoff, which just leaves the Cotton.
Thanks. That's why I finished with "I think..."
I'd say the best-case scenario is for us to pick up all money games to fill out the C-USA games on our schedule. And win them all.
It's all about the scheduling now.
Louisiana Tech University
Flagship of the University of Louisiana System
Would 3-0 with wins at Arkansas and Texas Tech get us in the Top25? Doubtful, but we'd be getting votes.
Going 6-0 would likely get us in the Top25 then we need to get lucky with our opponents doing well with teams like Arkansas and Texas Tech especially.
IMO if all the stars aligned an undefeated Tech could finish no better than top 10 which would get us the access bowl, but not even close to the playoff.
Well, if we're talking dream scenarios. What if we go undefeated and Texas Tech wins the Big 12 and Arkansas wins the SEC?
See my 3rd paragraph. JMO, but I don't believe we'd ever get to the top 4. Remember Baylor and TCU. One SEC and Big10 are for sure even with two losses. A two loss PAC12 would probably get in over an undefeated G5.
The ultimate poo poo would be LaTech undefeated and left out while both Texas Tech and Arkansas get in with 1 loss.
I say yes
I'd agree if we were even in the top 35 going in but...
Beat Arkansas and we get some votes (a few)
Beating a MEAC team = flatline with no new votes
Beat Texas Tech and we get close, but but probably not enough.
That depends on our goal. If we're shooting for the top 4 and a spot in the play-off, then we better play 4 top 25 teams OOC and even then we'll have to get some breaks.
If we're shooting (for now) for a shot at an Access Bowl, then our typical schedules probably could put us in that conversation. We can't predict what other G5 schools are going to do or who they're gong to play or what the national narrative is going to be (which is still going to affect this as long as we have a committee making these calls). But undefeated this year would have us in the conversation. It wouldn't get us in over an undefeated Houston (for sure) or probably an undefeated Boise (depending on how their opponents and Arkansas and Texas Tech end up doing). But for all we know Boise and Houston will end up with 2 losses. But there is usually a random MAC team that has a great season, and if the right team beat Houston and played a decent OOC schedule they'd be the mix, too.
For a spot in an Access Bowl, we don't have to outrun the bear, just the other (G5) guy. For a spot in the playoff, we have to catch the bear, kill it with our bare hands, and send its cash stuffed carcass to the committee.
I think it depends on how they do. If they are both 2-1 while we are 3-0, I'd say we are at least above them anyway. High in the top 30 or lower 30s.
In dream scenario, If we can get 4-0 with Arkansas at 3-1 and TT at 2-1 after week 4 theres no good reason not to be. Arkansas would have defeated TCU and A&M at that point, TT would have beaten ASU.
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