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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

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    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Poll Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Sagarin Ratings are back! And they aren't kind. Tech checks in at #102, just a few spots below #100 Jacksonville State. But UCF is #108, so that's interesting.


    Last Year This Year
    Sag Rank 68 102
    Sag Rating 69.27 62.21
    SOS Rank 119
    SOS Rating 58.15
    Pred W-L
    7-5

    Home advantage for Week 1 is 2.61

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L
    @ 20 Ark 83.86 -22.65 L

    206 SCSt 37.25 29.18 W
    @ 46 TT 75.32 -14.11 L
    @ 67 MTSU 69.38 -8.17 L

    127 UTEP 54.88 11.55 W

    74 WKU 67.74 -1.31 L
    @ 125 MASS 55.35 5.86 W
    @ 147 FIU 50.40 10.81 W

    112 Rice 57.76 8.67 W
    @ 162 UNT 47.67 13.54 W

    142 UTSA 51.68 14.75 W
    @ 84 USM 65.03 -3.82 L



    Rk C-USA
    67 Middle Tennessee
    74 Western Kentucky
    81 Marshall
    84 Southern Miss
    102 Tech
    112 Rice
    118 Florida Atlantic
    127 UTEP
    142 UTSA
    147 Fla. International
    162 North Texas

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    All of the prognosticators are deathly afraid of our QB this year. And let's face it, he hasn't exactly started the 2016 season by inspiring much confidence.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    I am curious as to how Sagarin determines pre-season rankings. The actual season rankings make more sense - W/L, SOS, margin of victory, etc.

    If I had to guess, the preseason rankings are probably determined by the number of players returning, quality of players lost & retained, previous years performance, etc. I just wonder how they would account for players like Santos & Harris (i.e., transfers) as well as players who have (supposedly) developed over their career, such as Higgins.

    Its got to look bad on paper losing players like Dixon, Butler, Driskel, Turner, etc. But is it just me, or does anyone else perceive that we have the highest quality of players and depth that we've ever had? (Outside a couple of notable exceptions, that is)

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    All of the prognosticators are deathly afraid of our QB this year. And let's face it, he hasn't exactly started the 2016 season by inspiring much confidence.
    Sagarin doesn't factor in the unknown QB factor. It is the most accurate system, but normally takes a few weeks to work the kinks out. Teams like Wake Forrest are ranked ahead of us because they have a better SOS among other things.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Ever the optimist I am so here goes my spin--- WK ranked 74 th and its almost a pickem=== less than 2pt spead
    USM ranked 84th and its just over field goal
    MTSU 67 th and 8 pts


    Bottom line is conference wise we look pretty solid and how the heck can their be a 26 spot difference with WK and only 1 pt spread? (game in Ruston). I respect Sagrin but its too early to ...

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    We should be about in the middle before the season is over if everything works out.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogsince65 View Post
    Ever the optimist I am so here goes my spin--- WK ranked 74 th and its almost a pickem=== less than 2pt spead
    USM ranked 84th and its just over field goal
    MTSU 67 th and 8 pts


    Bottom line is conference wise we look pretty solid and how the heck can their be a 26 spot difference with WK and only 1 pt spread? (game in Ruston). I respect Sagrin but its too early to ...
    That's a fair synopsis. I feel good about this season. I don't think we win 10 games but I do think we win 8 and keep the momentum going in the right direction.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016


    Last Week This Week
    Sag Rank 102 81
    Sag Rating 62.21 67.51
    SOS Rank 0 27
    SOS Rating 0.00 82.16
    Pred W-L 7-5 7-5



    Home advantage for Week 2 is 2.61.

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act
    @ 30 Ark
    -1.00

    L

    212 SCSt 33.90 37.83 W 8.65
    @ 37 TT 77.74 -11.23 L 2.88
    @ 69 MTSU 69.77 -3.26 L 4.91

    121 UTEP 56.81 14.92 W 3.37

    61 WKU 72.03 -0.30 L 1.01
    @ 117 MASS 57.87 8.64 W 2.78
    @ 146 FIU 50.17 16.34 W 5.53

    129 Rice 53.92 17.81 W 9.14
    @ 170 UNT 46.33 20.18 W 6.64

    147 UTSA 49.72 22.01 W 7.26
    @ 70 USM 69.61 -3.10 L 0.72





    It looks like we are predicted to lose to all 3 teams ahead of us in the conference.

    Rk C-USA
    61 Western Kentucky
    69 Middle Tennessee
    70 Southern Miss
    81 Louisiana Tech
    88 Marshall
    119 Florida Atlantic
    121 UTEP
    129 Rice
    146 Fla. International
    147 UTSA
    170 North Texas

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post

    Last Week This Week
    Sag Rank 102 81
    Sag Rating 62.21 67.51
    SOS Rank 0 27
    SOS Rating 0.00 82.16
    Pred W-L 7-5 7-5




    Home advantage for Week 2 is 2.61.

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act
    @ 30 Ark
    -1.00

    L

    212 SCSt 33.90 37.83 W 8.65
    @ 37 TT 77.74 -11.23 L 2.88
    @ 69 MTSU 69.77 -3.26 L 4.91

    121 UTEP 56.81 14.92 W 3.37

    61 WKU 72.03 -0.30 L 1.01
    @ 117 MASS 57.87 8.64 W 2.78
    @ 146 FIU 50.17 16.34 W 5.53

    129 Rice 53.92 17.81 W 9.14
    @ 170 UNT 46.33 20.18 W 6.64

    147 UTSA 49.72 22.01 W 7.26
    @ 70 USM 69.61 -3.10 L 0.72






    It looks like we are predicted to lose to all 3 teams ahead of us in the conference.

    Rk C-USA
    61 Western Kentucky
    69 Middle Tennessee
    70 Southern Miss
    81 Louisiana Tech
    88 Marshall
    119 Florida Atlantic
    121 UTEP
    129 Rice
    146 Fla. International
    147 UTSA
    170 North Texas
    But the margin is slim, especially against WKU, probably owing to it being a home game.

    I'm surprised at the UTEP line and the WKU line

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    The other thing I should clarify is that the +/- column shows how much the line has moved from the previous week. This week, every line moved in our favor. I expect to see them all move similarly in the coming weeks.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    We actually dropped a little this week. I don't know if it was due to poor performance (we should have beaten them by about a touchdown more) or factors beyond our control.


    Last Week This Week
    Sag Rank 81 84
    Sag Rating 67.51 66.30
    SOS Rank 27 114
    SOS Rating 82.16 58.50
    Pred W-L 7-5 7-5


    Home advantage for Week 3 is 2.61.

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act
    @ 30 Ark
    -1.00

    L

    212 SCSt
    29.00

    W
    @ 37 TT 76.46 -11.16 L 0.07
    @ 80 MTSU 66.65 -1.35 L 1.91

    123 UTEP 55.88 14.64 W -0.28

    54 WKU 73.72 -3.20 L -2.90
    @ 119 MASS 57.84 7.46 W -1.18
    @ 163 FIU 47.24 18.06 W 1.72

    128 Rice 54.49 16.03 W -1.78
    @ 157 UNT 49.09 16.21 W -3.97

    151 UTSA 50.03 20.49 W -1.52
    @ 77 USM 67.84 -2.54 L 0.56



    Rk C-USA
    54 Western Kentucky
    66 Marshall
    77 Southern Miss
    80 Middle Tennessee
    84 Louisiana Tech
    122 Florida Atlantic
    123 UTEP
    128 Rice
    151 UTSA
    157 North Texas
    163 Fla. International
    170 North Texas

  12. #12
    Super Moderator PawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond reputePawDawg has a reputation beyond repute PawDawg's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Last week was an obvious setback in Sagarin. Need to play up to move up.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Do we have to play 157 UNT or 170 UNT?

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by johnnylightnin View Post
    Do we have to play 157 UNT or 170 UNT?
    Nothing we can do about that, but playing THE worst FBS OOC and THE worst FCS is not a very good tune up. The wealthy flyers do get to take a trip to watch a game where the Patriots play.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    Last week was an obvious setback in Sagarin. Need to play up to move up.
    84th? This is ridiculous.

    I hope Skip Holtz makes a point to tell his football team that they are ranked 84th (out of 129 teams?) by Sagarin. That's NO RESPECT! And then I hope he gives them a speech like this:

    "Did you come to LA Tech to be ranked 84th?"
    "Are you proud to be 84th?"

    "For those of you keeping count, that means you are ranked in the bottom 35%."
    "The bottom third in anything is typically considered a failure."

    "Are you a failure?
    "

    "Well, you have a chance tonight to go out there and change EVERYTHING!"
    "In one 3-hour football game, you can literally flip the switch from "failure" to "success"."

    "Beat Texas Tech tonight, and they won't be ranking you 84th anymore.
    "

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