Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread 2016

[FriscoDawg]

Home advantage for Week 4 is 2.70.

Sagarin now shows us as 8-4: the new win comes from USM. WKU is also getting pretty close to the line as well. I remain unconvinced, and think a 7-5 season is probably our most likely final tally.

Tech is 66.75 according to your numbers and USM is 65.54. 1.21 difference but the home advantage is 2.7, so USM is favored by 1.49.

A team must be within 2.7 of an opponent to be a home favorite and over 2.7 ahead to be a road favorite.

[PawDawg]

Tech is 66.75 according to your numbers and USM is 65.54. 1.21 difference but the home advantage is 2.7, so USM is favored by 1.49.

A team must be within 2.7 of an opponent to be a home favorite and over 2.7 ahead to be a road favorite.

Thanks for that nugget. I have skimmed over the wording many times, but never caught that. That must be where the "3 pt home advantage" we hear so much about comes from?

FWIW, I've always heard home advantage was 6 on Vegas lines, but I think that means actually having a home crowd that shows up.

[Blue Dawg]

Tech is 66.75 according to your numbers and USM is 65.54. 1.21 difference but the home advantage is 2.7, so USM is favored by 1.49.

A team must be within 2.7 of an opponent to be a home favorite and over 2.7 ahead to be a road favorite.

ah yea. thanks. had a misplaced parenthesis. changed the original post.

[Blue Dawg]

We didn't drop a whole lot this week, because we proved that Sagarin was correct in ranking a directional ex-Belcher ahead of us.

	Last Week	This Week
Sag Rank	79	83
Sag Rating	66.75	66.24
SOS Rank	34	30
SOS Rating	72.18	70.17
Pred W-L	7-5	7-5

Home field advantage for Week 5 is 2.40.

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act
@	30	Ark		-1.00			L
	212	SCSt		29.00			W
@	37	TT		-14.00			L
@	74	MTSU		-4.00			L
	165	UTEP	46.06	22.58	W	2.65
	64	WKU	69.94	-1.30	L	1.02
@	123	MASS	55.77	8.07	W	-0.26
@	178	FIU	44.22	19.62	W	3.35
	143	Rice	51.50	17.14	W	2.84
@	150	UNT	49.75	14.09	W	-0.62
	149	UTSA	50.16	18.48	W	1.02
@	68	USM	69.03	-5.19	L	-3.70

Rk	C-USA
64	Western Kentucky
68	Southern Miss
78	Middle Tennessee
83	Louisiana Tech
95	Marshall
133	Florida Atlantic
136	Old Dominion
143	Rice
149	UTSA
150	North Texas
165	UTEP
178	Fla. International
180	Charlotte

The rest of C-USA seems to be convinced that the best way to get taken seriously as a conference is to be as bad as possible. They should be thankful American football doesn't do regulation like all the soccer leagues.

According to the Sagarin Game Rating (which takes into account how well you should have performed vs how well you did perform), our worst game of the season is still Texas Tech and our best was Arkansas.

At this point, 7-5 probably represents our absolute best case scenario.

[Blue Dawg]

Apologies for not getting this out before the WKU game. I am very lazy. These numbers are *before* Thursday.

	Last Week	This Week
Sag Rank	83	81
Sag Rating	66.24	66.70
SOS Rank	30	78
SOS Rating	70.17	64.36
Pred W-L	7-5	8-4

Home field advantange is 2.59.

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act
@	30	Ark		-1.00			L
	212	SCSt		29.00			W
@	37	TT		-14.00			L
@	74	MTSU		-4.00			L
	165	UTEP		21.00			W
	71	WKU	68.84	0.45	W	1.75
@	122	MASS	55.72	8.39	W	0.32
@	171	FIU	46.21	17.90	W	-1.72
	140	Rice	51.45	17.84	W	0.70
@	159	UNT	48.61	15.50	W	1.41
	148	UTSA	50.05	19.24	W	0.76
@	73	USM	68.52	-4.41	L	0.78

Rk	C-USA
71	Western Kentucky
73	Southern Miss
76	Middle Tennessee
81	Louisiana Tech
95	Marshall
121	Old Dominion
137	Florida Atlantic
140	Rice
148	UTSA
159	North Texas
171	Fla. International
172	UTEP
192	Charlotte

[JAMROB]

Today it is WKU 71, MT 73, Tech 76 and USM 84. Everybody else is below 100.

[Blue Dawg]

Today it is WKU 71, MT 73, Tech 76 and USM 84. Everybody else is below 100.

That's held pretty steady unfortunately.

[Dogsince65]

Ever the optimist I am so here goes my spin--- WK ranked 74 th and its almost a pickem=== less than 2pt spead
USM ranked 84th and its just over field goal
MTSU 67 th and 8 pts


Bottom line is conference wise we look pretty solid and how the heck can their be a 26 spot difference with WK and only 1 pt spread? (game in Ruston). I respect Sagrin but its too early to ...

. Posted August... After San Antonio beat down of S miss I am not taking any opponent lightly-- especially on road.

[Dogsince65]

What were Houston rating and Navy ratings??

[Blue Dawg]

What were Houston rating and Navy ratings??

When?

[Blue Dawg]

	Last Week	This Week
Sag Rank	81	77
Sag Rating	66.70	66.91
SOS Rank	78	74
SOS Rating	64.36	64.67
Pred W-L	8-4	8-4

Home advantage for Week 7 is 2.45.

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act
@	30	Ark		-1.00			L
	212	SCSt		29.00			W
@	37	TT		-14.00			L
@	74	MTSU		-4.00			L
	165	UTEP		21.00			W
	71	WKU		3.00			W
@	134	MASS	53.89	10.57	W	2.18
@	157	FIU	47.69	16.77	W	-1.13
	146	Rice	51.18	18.18	W	0.34
@	140	UNT	52.03	12.43	W	-3.07
	123	UTSA	55.88	13.48	W	-5.76
@	84	USM	64.70	-0.24	L	4.17

Rk	C-USA
70	Western Kentucky
72	Middle Tennessee
77	Louisiana Tech
84	Southern Miss
105	Old Dominion
107	Marshall
123	UTSA
140	North Texas
146	Rice
150	Florida Atlantic
157	Fla. International
182	UTEP
184	Charlotte

We can beat USM if we go in with a killer instinct.

[Houston Techsan]

So Sag still has Western Kentucky ranked above us. Since we won by the normal Vega home field advantage (3 points) I would assume we would be at least equal.

[Champ967]

So Sag still has Western Kentucky ranked above us. Since we won by the normal Vega home field advantage (3 points) I would assume we would be at least equal.

Their win at Miami-OH and loss at Bama are 'better' than Tech losses at TXTech & Ark. So they have one bad road win and one good road loss, while Tech has two good road losses.

Also, their 47pt home win over 2-3 HouBapt is better than Tech's 29pt home win over SCSt.

I think that accounts for the discrepancy.

[Tech52]

Their win at Miami-OH and loss at Bama are 'better' than Tech losses at TXTech & Ark. So they have one bad road win and one good road loss, while Tech has two good road losses.

Also, their 47pt home win over 2-3 HouBapt is better than Tech's 29pt home win over SCSt.

I think that accounts for the discrepancy.

Given that Miami hasnt won a game yet, it cant count for much.

[diamonddawg31]

Same record...and we have the stronger strength of schedule currently. Must be margin of victory.