There's been a lot of discussion about Higgins, JMar, Holtz, playcalling, etc. But I was interested in our rate of success from each down. That is, given a random position on the field, what's the chance that we score on that play. We'd obviously expect it to be higher the closer we are to the goal line. And how is that affected by our discussion of redzone woes?
This data doesn't include SC St for some reason (I'm using a scraper that looks at NCAA.com, which doesn't have a play-by-play for that game), but thats ok because theorectically we should be able to discard data from FCS games. I'm also not worried about numbers being off here or there because I think the overall picture remains the same.
We pass way more than we run according to the data I have. Despite that (or perhaps because of it) we have a much higher success rate of running the ball. This is also affected by the small amount of data, since it's only Week 4 (we've played fewer than 250 action downs).
Based on this chart, if we continue to run the same relative passing and running styles, there is no reason to ever pass inside the 10. If the ball spot is on the 10 yard line, we have a 14% chance of throwing a TD, and a 30% of running it in.
Of course, this chart doesn't mean that we should run every down. Youve got clock management and personnel to consider. But we are having much better success rushing in the RZ (26% vs 13%) than we are passing. Also, you never know. Higgins could come out Saturday and throw 10 TDs from the 3. But based on this, I don't think that touchdown attempts inside the RZ are our best bet longterm. We shall see.
Thoughts?
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Originally Posted by LATechBanjo
