I'm not sure how much P5 teams care about your record outside of the Top 25...but that reality is that skip is 2-10 vs top 75 opponents. I like Skip and want him to stay but that record is terrible.Originally Posted by T1
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I'm not sure how much P5 teams care about your record outside of the Top 25...but that reality is that skip is 2-10 vs top 75 opponents. I like Skip and want him to stay but that record is terrible.
That is pretty eye opening. Never say never about coaches leaving. I hope he sticks around because I think he is building the program the right way. Need to get up to 500 in those 25-75 games.
I think its more of a crime that we've only played 12 top 75 opponents, and very few at home.
This is probably a clearer look at the stats:
vs Top 40: (0-5). (0-5 away, 0-0 at home). Avg score 23-41. 0% probability of beating a Top 40 team on the road.
vs 41-88: (8-5). Avg score 41-29. (2-4 away, 4-1 home, 2-0 neutral site). 33% probability winning away. 80% probability winning at home. 100% probability winning on neutral field.
vs 89 and up: (16-2). Avg score is 41-12. (8-1 away, 8-1 home). 89% probability of winning away. 89% probability of winning at home.
* UNT is ranked 130 right now (89% probability of winning away)
* UTSA is ranked 129 right now (89% probability of winning at home)
* Southern Miss is ranked #86 right now. (33% probability of winning away)
** However, the 4 road losses were to #42 Arkansas (by 1 pt), #45 Texas Tech (by 14 pts), #59 Kansas St (in OT), and #73 MT (by 4 pts). Since USM is ranked #86 right now, the probability is more like 50%-60%?
Also note we led in 3/4 of those. You can go back and see how lucky the winning team was in those situations. Between bad calls, no calls, key players being missing, or a combination of both.
ESPN has us as a 60% vs USM.
Good stuff. Thanks for posting this.
LA Tech has got to start winning some of these "Top 40" games. Top 40 games don't come along very often for Tech, so we have to quit being satisfied with just "playing it close". We've got to take advantage of these games when we can.
Just not easy to do or they wouldn't be "top 40" games.
For the most part we're in 'em all. These days they are always fairly close games. We just have to start winning some of them instead of constantly losing them late. TCU, TX A&M, Arkansas, KSU, WKU, Utah St & Marshall are great examples.
It depends on who the Top 40 team is. It's more likely that we could beat a very good WKU than a good Auburn team, for example. They just have better players and their stadiums are more intimidating, and their coaches are the best in the business. But there is also a prety big difference in playing #15 and playing #38.
Our Top 40 games were OU (blowout), Auburn (blowout), Miss St (blowout), '14 Marshall (23-26) and '15 WKU (38-41).
I think you forgot "Has more biased officials"
CUSA bears more responsibility for this than Tech.
TCU was ranked 18th when we played them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmDuBJI9dbM
And Arkansas was in the Top 25 for several weeks right after they beat us and TCU. Utah St was ranked. TX A&M was ranked.
I think T1 was using Holtz's games. With the exception of Arkansas (which may no longer be in the top 40 by T1's rankings), those games were under Dykes.
A marked difference between Holtz and his predecessor is that Holtz seems focused on building a program (sustainable) while Dykes seemed to be building a team (climactic). The implications are fairly obvious.
Have you considered those Dogs?
I totally agree!
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