This is probably a clearer look at the stats:
vs Top 40: (0-5). (0-5 away, 0-0 at home). Avg score 23-41. 0% probability of beating a Top 40 team on the road.
vs 41-88: (8-5). Avg score 41-29. (2-4 away, 4-1 home, 2-0 neutral site). 33% probability winning away. 80% probability winning at home. 100% probability winning on neutral field.
vs 89 and up: (16-2). Avg score is 41-12. (8-1 away, 8-1 home). 89% probability of winning away. 89% probability of winning at home.
* UNT is ranked 130 right now (89% probability of winning away)
* UTSA is ranked 129 right now (89% probability of winning at home)
* Southern Miss is ranked #86 right now. (33% probability of winning away)
** However, the 4 road losses were to #42 Arkansas (by 1 pt), #45 Texas Tech (by 14 pts), #59 Kansas St (in OT), and #73 MT (by 4 pts). Since USM is ranked #86 right now, the probability is more like 50%-60%?
It depends on who the Top 40 team is. It's more likely that we could beat a very good WKU than a good Auburn team, for example. They just have better players and their stadiums are more intimidating, and their coaches are the best in the business. But there is also a prety big difference in playing #15 and playing #38.
Our Top 40 games were OU (blowout), Auburn (blowout), Miss St (blowout), '14 Marshall (23-26) and '15 WKU (38-41).
TCU was ranked 18th when we played them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmDuBJI9dbM
And Arkansas was in the Top 25 for several weeks right after they beat us and TCU. Utah St was ranked. TX A&M was ranked.
A marked difference between Holtz and his predecessor is that Holtz seems focused on building a program (sustainable) while Dykes seemed to be building a team (climactic). The implications are fairly obvious.
Have you considered those Dogs?