|
|
I said ALL of his projections. I believe some are over done and unrealistic. I believe the large numbers are being used to keep the sheeple in line.Originally Posted by Guisslapp
100 to 200 thousand "could die" in the US. We were at 2200 deaths and 125,000 "confirmed" cases when he said this on Sunday. Four days later we are at 5153 deaths and 217,000 confirmed cases.
If you don't think Fauci is admired and loved by legions of conservatives...you are in denial. It's the left that hates him for praising Trump and Trump quick action during this crisis. It doesn't fit the left's TDS mental issues and media spin. Just like they react to any person in the national exposure that is conservative and praises Trump or praises anti-abortion stances etc..like our two last Supreme Court Judges... You get it now?
Sure his dire predictions hurt the soul but he's telling us these to make America realize the true magnitude of this virus. Some might be overblown as we will find out, but he hedges on the conservative side being in the important medical position he is in and his decades of experience and service to 6 Presidents.
So if we double the death total every 4 days, starting from now at 5,000, how many days does it take to get to 100,000?
A really crude estimation...
April 2 - 5000
April 6- 10000
April 10 - 20000
April 14 - 40000
April 18 - 80000
I am not predicting those numbers, but just giving you an example of how exponential functions work based on the two data points you gave. Do Trump supporters not understand exponential functions?
You should try reading the article instead of just the headline.
There are other exponents...for instance, starting at 5,000 over some time period it could result in 15,000, then....45,000, etc... Are we sure the exponent is just 2? It could be 2.2 or something, or, it just might be 1.8, or even 1.6, or, some other factor. Where is the 2.00000 factor coming from? A WAG or it is approximately 2?
Oh wait, an "exponent" is actually square, then cube. So X squared is X x X...such as 2 squared is 2 x 2 = 4. Now the base is 4, continuing on the squared logarithm would be 4 x 4 = 16, and then 16 x 16 = well, a lot! So, it seems to me that a base simply doubling is actually on a linear projection, not an exponential one.
Starting at 5,000 then 5,000 squared is 25 million! That is exponential growth, not simply doubling.
Do non-Trump supporters not understand exponential functions? Just asking....
You think that's what Fauci was basing his numbers on? Maybe so, but I'm not buying it at this point.
I took his two data points and picked the closest integer to fit a curve (and I called it “crude”).
One day 2200 deaths four days later 5000. That is more than doubling but less than tripping over 4 days.
I am not saying that will happen, every 4 days. I stated that much. But I was just taking that as basic premise to illustrate how you get to big numbers quickly when dealing with exponential growth (which we have here).
How many do y'all think actually died/will die in China?
The model that Fauci is using is more complex taking into account many other factors that define the parameters—all are assumptions which could be proven false—but fundamentally it is based on exponential spread. I am sure their model doesn’t spit out numbers just the example numbers I gave, but that is the basic idea. The new deaths per day will continue to go up until they flatline and then the rate of new deaths will go down but at a slower rate than they went up. That is the model they showed. Fast exponential growth on the front end and slower decay on the back end.
And to be clear, base doubling is not a linear function because the base itself is changing as a function of time. That is why it is an exponential function and not a simple power function.
For S&G if you want the equation that fits my data, it is total deaths = 2.102.2e^(0.1733x), where x is the number of days since Pawdawg’s first data point (approx 2500, 4 days before it was 5000). The R-squared fit was a perfect 1, meaning that the data values I made up perfectly fit an exponential function.
They have hit 43,000 in Wuhan itself, which is ground zero for this China Virus. The Chicoms have taken draconian actions to limit the damage, so perhaps already, or eventually, they will get on top of this. No one will know how many really died from it.
Wouldn't a simpler model be total deaths = 2,500 * 2^n/4. Assuming you have 2500 deaths at day 0 and n is number of days from day 0. I'm doing this in my head so I could be mistaken.
Keep in mind if 43k died in Wuhan, that was with faster draconian lockdowns beyond what we have even done anywhere.
They locked down in early January. We waited until mid March do start doing more moderate stay at home orders.
Yup.
There are some other factors to consider if you're gonna compare China to the US, one of which is population density, another is cultural. My experiences in China were always huge crowds, everywhere, tightly packed in mass transit, living on top of each other in small apartments in dense complexes, families jammed together, more sharing of meals with families and neighbors, etc...
And, again, into early February many in charge in our large cities, like NYC, were saying everything is okay. And please don't deny it, there is video of De Blasio and his chief city health official saying as much.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote