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Thread: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

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    Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Big discussion on SiriusXM's college sports channel on Monday about these possibilities. It spanned across multiple shows throughout the day. Teams on the bubble over the past decade were discussed. Tech got a mention. Our ratings in KenPom, for example, in 2014 and in 2015 were much better going into Selection Sunday than our RPI.

    In 2014, our RPI was in the 50s but our Pom ranking was in the low 30s. If I remember correctly it was similar in 2015. There have been a lot of rumors about different members of the committee bringing this type of data into the room during the discussion. But it's never had an impact on the selection process.

    Bringing this type of analysis into the room might be in response to talk of a rule change that would force the Committee to give first consideration to regular season conference champions with an RPI better than 50. It would be modeled off of a CFP Committee rule that favors conference champions. It sounds as if the Committee would have to publicly give their reasoning for leaving a champion with that type of RPI out of the field.

    The individual who first developed the RPI for the NCAA in the late 70s/early 80s was interviewed. He said that even in those days he believed the Committee misapplied the strength of schedule ranking starting with Lamar being left out of the field in 1984. He said that, despite the fact Lamar was 25-4 and No. 19 in the RPI, they were left out because they hadn't played anyone with an RPI of better than 100. When he was told how the discussion was going he said he asked to speak to the Committee, a request that was denied.

    He brought up another point about home court advantage and many power schools playing few, and in some cases, no true road games in non-conference play. The advantage is overwhelming. So much so that many of these analysts are now attempting to devise a "home court penalty" in the statistical analysis. You would be penalized for playing to many home and/or neutral site games.

    http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/getting-smarter-ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-to-talk-analytics-process/

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Great article. I have hope the basketball selection committee will make some changes that make sense. The end result would be conferences like the SEC quit getting as many slots, that frankly they don't deserve based on relative quality of basketball played. Too bad it can't happen this season, but at least they're looking at it.

    Baseball has the most representative post season system. Basketball is second but could be a whole lot better and more representative. Football is more like a consortium of aloof private yacht clubs trying to keep the EEOC off their backs.
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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    The individual who first developed the RPI for the NCAA in the late 70s/early 80s was interviewed. He said that even in those days he believed the Committee misapplied the strength of schedule ranking starting with Lamar being left out of the field in 1984. He said that, despite the fact Lamar was 25-4 and No. 19 in the RPI, they were left out because they hadn't played anyone with an RPI of better than 100. When he was told how the discussion was going he said he asked to speak to the Committee, a request that was denied.
    Which I think was incorrect - I want to say that along with Lamar that both Tech and McNeese State were also top 100 rpi because the Southland was a top 7 rated conference that year
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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    Heard that Ken was making his spiel to the NCAA this week about his rankings being used in addition to RPI for at-large selection purposes

    Most in the basketball world agree that this would be a good move

    Just a few of the mouth pieces for the A-5 conferences seem to think this would be a bad idea, like the SEC who could see their number drop from 5 participants to 3...
    This is really good news.

    Here's the official NCAA release linked in that article: http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ocess-involves

    It appears the coaches are pressuring the NCAA to get rid of the RPI and to create a BCS-type computer composite rankings. But the new computer composite would be used by the similar to how the RPI is used today and not as an inclusion formula like the BCS.

    KenPom is the best that I'm familiar with. It's basketball-specific and calibrates for efficiency and tempo. It provides incredible advanced statistical breakdowns that Brad Stevens used to take Butler to back-to-back Final Fours and that Scott Drew used to take Baylor to its first ever No. 1 ranking. I can't recommend KenPom enough. It's simply the best. You won't regret paying $20 for a premium membership.

    RPI is terrible. It's archaic and should be thrown away.

    Sagarin is like an improved RPI ranking with a better formula. Like RPI, it can be used for any sport, which means it wasn't created with any particular sport in mind. It's major flaws are that it does not account for elements like efficiency and tempo, which can really skew a points-based data formula. But Sagarin can be used as a decent predictor.

    Like RPI, Massey is also terrible. If you looked into how they actually come up with their rankings, you'd see they are awful.

    BPI... I don't trust anything ESPN puts out.

    KPI - A lot of nerds like it, but their website is very limited so I don't like it.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    The great strength of RPI is that it's really simple.

    The great weakness of RPI is that it's really simple.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Quote Originally Posted by Champ967 View Post
    The great strength of RPI is that it's really simple.

    The great weakness of RPI is that it's really simple.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Lamar was good in 1984. They were just as good in 1985. In fact, Tech, Lamar, USL, and McNeese were all legit Top 40 in '85 and all should have made the Big Dance that year.

    The best basketball EVER played in the TAC were the games vs. Lamar and USL in 1985. We won both games, in tough hard-fought battles. But the way the teams played those nights any of us could have beaten anyone in the country, including the then #1 ranked Georgetown Hoyas with Patrick Ewing. The shooting was unreal. Lamar was a perfect 30 of 30 from the FT line and shot something like 60% from the floor....and still lost, because the Dawgs shot the ball even better against tough defense. USL was unreal on the long-range bombs, they shot 60+% ...in the days before the 3-ptr. Had there been a 3-pt line....well, no, because Russo would have changed our defense to deny them the 3's. As it was we had to let them shoot from 25 feet, and sometimes longer, and damn if they didn't bury 'em. GREAT basketball those nights. Left the TAC knowing I had witnessed "as good as it gets."

    Anyway, the Southland Conference was tough those days. As I recall we had just a 7-team conference: Tech, Lamar, USL, McNeese (with Joe Dumars), North Texas State, UT-Arlington, and the JUCO in Monroe. Should have put 4 teams in the Dance.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Interesting interview yesterday on SiriusXM with Jerry Palm. It appears the group meeting on Friday already knows what a composite ranking might look like. Officially, this wouldn't be put in place until next season. However, it looks like they'll have something for the Committee for this season. Maybe even as soon as next week. To me the real question is whether a home court penalty is used in the equation. Or do they provide a composite ranking and then an adjusted ranking that reflects the penalty?

    If we see 5 or 6 regular season conference champions make the field this season that would have been relegated to the NIT in past years that will bring about some scheduling reform. This should also have an impact on seeding.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post

    BPI... I don't trust anything ESPN puts out.
    I agree. I don't know what it looks like today, but at some points in past years it's actually favored the power leagues. The BPI has been worse than the RPI. Is it a true power ranking, or was it put together to further ESPN's agenda?

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    Which I think was incorrect - I want to say that along with Lamar that both Tech and McNeese State were also top 100 rpi because the Southland was a top 7 rated conference that year
    That would be the case for 1985. I'm sure about 1984. We had Sagarin ratings in those days, but the RPI formula used at the time was a complete mystery. A total secret. Since the guy interviewed was the one who had the numbers, I would trust his accuracy.

    It give us a better idea as to why Lamar was left out.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time


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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    Speaking of RPI. About 10 days ago I know Middle Tennessee's RPI was sitting at 21. After a handful of conference games, all wins, it's sitting at 35. During yesterday's telecast the color analyst said at one point Middle's RPI was "Top 20". Hardly.

    I wonder how far it would have fallen had the Blue Raiders lost yesterday at home.

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    Re: Selection Committee Changes: It's about time

    First set of changes:

    The NCAA notes in its press release that there is a "likelihood of a new metric being in place for the 2018-19 season." The NCAA will attempt to run a composite ranking system, plus a separate, unique, independent formula next season as test run behind the scenes. Think of it like a dress rehearsal: the NCAA wants to see how a composite metric and how its individual ranking system performs vs. other established metrics before signing off on an overhaul."


    http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...acket-process/

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