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[Dowty]

The predictions are based on his statistical model and rankings. This isn't like the USA Today one where it's purely subjective. Individually, we have a better than 50% chance (according to the pre-season rankings) in 9 games. I'm not really sure where the prediction in the capsule box come from.

I wondered where the 7-5 prediction came from too, given the 50%+ chance in 9 games. I'd say that assuming we don't have major injury problems, 7-5 should be our floor.

[Bearpaw]

I was sure I read he was predicting us to go 7-5?

As earlier posted, HD wasn't wrong, 9 out of 12 games have a win probability of 51 or more (i.e. we should win 9), but the writer believes we will possibly drop 2 so he predicted we would have 7-5.

[HogDawg]

HogDawg didn't read the article. The writer is predicting a 7-5 season, our ranking to be 82, and our offense ranking to drop considerably.

He is predicting loses to Mississippi State, South Carolina, WKU, USM, and one more (most likely UTSA).

Fair assessment.

Geeeezus revf......here is what the writer posted. We are "favored" in 9 games according to this:

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
2-Sep	Northwestern State	NR	36.5	98%
9-Sep	Mississippi State	30	-11.5	25%
16-Sep	at Western Kentucky	51	-12.0	24%
23-Sep	at South Carolina	36	-14.7	20%
30-Sep	South Alabama	108	8.4	69%
7-Oct	at UAB	130	20.3	88%
21-Oct	Southern Miss	84	2.8	56%
28-Oct	at Rice	120	6.4	64%
4-Nov	North Texas	106	8.2	68%
11-Nov	Florida Atlantic	99	6.1	64%
18-Nov	at UTEP	126	8.9	70%
25-Nov	UTSA	91	4.3	60%

Projected S&P+ Rk	82
Proj. Off. / Def. Rk	48 / 114
Projected wins	7.1
Five-Year S&P+ Rk	2.8 (59)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	89 / 86
2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -3.3
2016 TO Luck/Game	+1.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	43% (26%, 59%)
2016 Second-order wins (difference)	9.6 (-0.6)

This season could go in quite a few different directions. It’s easy to assume regression for the offense and progress for the defense, but the amount of each could make the difference between a six-win season and a long-awaited Conference USA title.
I’m optimistic. The defense finally has a little continuity, and if Ephraim Kitchen is able to stay on the field, the secondary should boast stability. And while it will be hard to maintain last year’s offensive pace, I would be surprised if the Tech offense fell out of the Off. S&P+ top 40.
The schedule takes shape like last year’s. With games against Mississippi State and South Carolina sandwiching a trip to WKU, it’s possible that even a strong Tech team begins 1-3. But even while projecting the Bulldogs a pessimistic 82nd overall, S&P+ forecasts them as favorites in each of their final eight games. The top two other C-USA West contenders — Southern Miss (October 21), UTSA (November 25) — have to come to Ruston.
C-USA is getting its act together. If Holtz is going to steal his moment, it might have to come in 2017 or 2018, and I think his odds are solid.

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Yes he says 7.1 wins at the bottom, but I don't even know how he gets there. He picks LA Tech's "WIN probability" to be 56% against USM and 60% against UTSA. How can those be considered losses?

[Blue Dawg]

7.1 is what you get when you add all the W% together. It's a quick and dirty way to guess a win total based on the variation in percentages.

[inudesu]

He goes in reverse order of predicted conference ranking, we were the second to last preview for CUSA (WKU was last).

Here is the conference summary.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...louisiana-tech