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Thread: Climate Change

  1. #16
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    Oh yeah? You still think we have a seat at that table? Do you think we will have any future influence on global emissions agreements?

    Do you think our traditional allies will rush to back us when we are looking for international community's support on something that we think is important?
    Yes, absolutely, absolutely

    We are the second largest polluter in the world. They can't do anything without us. There is a reason people have been kissing China and India's ass to get them to participate. Because if they can't get them to particpate their agreement is meaningless (if the alarmists are to be believed). It's the same situation for the US. If you think otherwise then you have fallen for the anti Trump media.

    We are still one of the great (if not greatest) military super powers in the world. Our allies will still be our allies because they would rather keep us on their side.

    Further, the media is saying we are going to lose our technological leadership by dropping out of the Paris accords. Do you think the Elon Musk/ clean energy types will stop working on new technology or move all of their operations overseas? Do you think California and New York and other liberal bastions will stop pushing for more green energy and research? Certainly there will be some drain as other countries may offer better incentives/tax cuts/ grants to pursue the technology, but do you really think the US will cease to be a major player in the arena?

    Lets say that everyone(other countries) is so pissed about the Paris accords that the decide to place punitive taxes on any US exports or stop trading with the US entirely. They could certainly do some damage to our economy. Would Europe, South Korea, Japan be stronger with a weaker US economy? If the US is greatly weakened who would be the new superpowers in the world? Is it better to have an unchecked China with no one to oppose them?
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  2. #17
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    Oh yeah? You still think we have a seat at that table? Do you think we will have any future influence on global emissions agreements?

    Do you think our traditional allies will rush to back us when we are looking for international community's support on something that we think is important?
    Yes. Yes. and Yes.

  3. #18
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    Re: Climate Change

    There are quite a few countries that would like to attain greater status with us checking out - Russia, China, India, maybe Germany.

    Yes, we still have the strongest military. But soft power gives you an alternative way to leverage international affairs so that you don't have to use your military.

    But the enemies we face today are often round holes to our military square peg. Our enemies are not always centralized governments with militaries that follow conventional rules of warfare. They are geographically distributed and require a huge amount of international cooperation to deal with. Their ability to rely on us is why they share information with us - and not because they think we will destroy them on a battlefield.

    As far as people being willing to work with us on climate, forget about it. India and China are the biggest concerns and this is the deal that the international community could agree on - well, except Trump, Syria, and Nicaragua. That took decades to accomplish because China and India need cheap energy to sustain their growth and development into first world nations. If the US position is that climate change is a hoax, that doesn't leave much middle ground for other countries to deal with us.

    As far as the alternate energy market in the US... of course it will continue. But the fact of the matter is that this agreement was an opportunity to help accelerate the growth of these already large and growing markets and provide a more level playing field for oil companies to internalize their carbon costs and fairly compete on technology in a global market.

    All this to save a dying coal market that has very little potential to create the kind of job growth potential sticking to this agreement could have provided.

  4. #19
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    1.There are quite a few countries that would like to attain greater status with us checking out - Russia, China, India, maybe Germany.

    2. Yes, we still have the strongest military. But soft power gives you an alternative way to leverage international affairs so that you don't have to use your military.

    3. But the enemies we face today are often round holes to our military square peg. Our enemies are not always centralized governments with militaries that follow conventional rules of warfare. They are geographically distributed and require a huge amount of international cooperation to deal with. Their ability to rely on us is why they share information with us - and not because they think we will destroy them on a battlefield.

    4. As far as people being willing to work with us on climate, forget about it. India and China are the biggest concerns and this is the deal that the international community could agree on - well, except Trump, Syria, and Nicaragua. That took decades to accomplish because China and India need cheap energy to sustain their growth and development into first world nations. If the US position is that climate change is a hoax, that doesn't leave much middle ground for other countries to deal with us.

    5. As far as the alternate energy market in the US... of course it will continue. But the fact of the matter is that this agreement was an opportunity to help accelerate the growth of these already large and growing markets and provide a more level playing field for oil companies to internalize their carbon costs and fairly compete on technology in a global market.

    6. All this to save a dying coal market that has very little potential to create the kind of job growth potential sticking to this agreement could have provided.
    I've added numbers to clarify what I am responding to.

    1. How will everyone else in the world feel about these countries becoming the new powers? Will everyone want to promote those countries over the United States?

    2. Agree, but a strong military and strong economy contribute to the soft power as well. China doesn't have it's diplomatic power because of its adherence to climate change.

    3. Agree. Certainly Europe doesn't think we will destroy them. But if the shit hits the fan they will want us with them rather than sitting on the sidelines. Particularly if their adversary is China, Russia, North Korea etc.

    4. The only way that works is if the United States is unimportant on the global scale emissions. That's not the case. Say Trump does what everyone is implying he is going to do and let loose American industry to pollute at will. Does it become more or less important to bring the United States to the negotiating table? It doesn't matter what the US position is. Perhaps we may see foreign powers "meddling" in the next election to get someone more environmentally friendly in office. How much do you want to bet that it won't be seen as "meddling" when they are supporting the right candidate.

    5. The agreement also included us shelling out a good chunk of change to subsidize the green energy markets in developing markets. I honestly am a little confused on the amount as the "news" organizations do a poor job of reporting this type of thing. I've seen 3 billion, 3 billion per year, and a possibly unrelated story about Bloomberg offering to put up the 15 million that will be lost because of the US pulling out of the agreement. There is nothing stopping us from making the same advances outside of the Paris agreement. All it did was charge us a entrance fee to put a minimal amount of pressure on us to meet an arbitrary target.

    6. This is an assumption on your part. I agree coal is dying. Perhaps the thought is that letting it die of natural causes is better for the economy than assisted (forced) suicide. Again the agreement does nothing for job growth. We can make the same investments outside of the agreement if it will benefit the economy. The Paris accords add nothing of value to that.
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  5. #20
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    Re: Climate Change

    1. They certainly aren't tied to the US. I don't know how much you have read about or studied soft power, but by many metrics we aren't the country most others are influenced by currently - prior to Brexit, at least - that would have been the U.K., then Germany. Of course the "measurement" of soft power depends on the model and certain models may be more apt to certain applications of soft power. Regardless, we are not the king of the hill and pulling out of Climate accords, criticizing mayors in other countries, publicly dressing down allies in public, and tweeting incredulous things all hurt it.

  6. #21
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    1. They certainly aren't tied to the US. I don't know how much you have read about or studied soft power, but by many metrics we aren't the country most others are influenced by currently - prior to Brexit, at least - that would have been the U.K., then Germany. Of course the "measurement" of soft power depends on the model and certain models may be more apt to certain applications of soft power. Regardless, we are not the king of the hill and pulling out of Climate accords, criticizing mayors in other countries, publicly dressing down allies in public, and tweeting incredulous things all hurt it.
    I can agree with all of that, but that was never the argument. The argument is we are are world power and certainly one of the top world powers. While many countries might rather see the UK (at least before Brexit) or France or whoever take our place at the big boy table, the countries that are in an actual position to usurp us are still likely to be viewed as less benevolent than the United States (even with Trump in charge). Are China or India going to intercede when Russia invades the Ukraine? Will they commit the majority of military power to the UN to prevent them from going further? Are they going to help with border disputes in the middle east? Will they offer more than the bare minimum if it does not involve them directly?

    That's not to speak of the economic impact we have as well.

    I will agree that this is not a positive impact on our soft power and neither are Trumps tweets. The question that needs to be asked though is what value can we place on the soft power lost vs potential for economic gain.
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  7. #22
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    Re: Climate Change

    The very scientists manmade-GW zealots worship say the Paris Accords would have little to no impact on "the problem." That, even if all 160+ nations (I think that's the number of Paris signees) all fulfilled their pledges to reduce greenhouse gasses. So, the alarmists can just stuff it!

    The Accords are nothing but a wealth transfer....and probably a "bribe"... to gain favor on some other issue(s) that Europe was counting on with China, India, etc... and they were just so sure the USA would shoulder the lion's share of the payment. So, the leaders of these European nations know the truth, and while they might holler publically (for political reasons with their own voters), privately they know Trump just trumped 'em and know we have a real leader again. Really, the first since Reagan.

  8. #23
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    Re: Climate Change

    China aims to spend $360 Billion on renewable energy by 2020.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/w...ment.html?_r=0

    "We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" -- Thomas Jefferson



  9. #24
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    Re: Climate Change

    Hooray for China!

  10. #25
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    The very scientists manmade-GW zealots worship say the Paris Accords would have little to no impact on "the problem." That, even if all 160+ nations (I think that's the number of Paris signees) all fulfilled their pledges to reduce greenhouse gasses. So, the alarmists can just stuff it!

    The Accords are nothing but a wealth transfer....and probably a "bribe"... to gain favor on some other issue(s) that Europe was counting on with China, India, etc... and they were just so sure the USA would shoulder the lion's share of the payment. So, the leaders of these European nations know the truth, and while they might holler publically (for political reasons with their own voters), privately they know Trump just trumped 'em and know we have a real leader again. Really, the first since Reagan.
    100% correct!

  11. #26
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    Re: Climate Change

    What you guys are not taking into account is the fact that China/India and other developing countries use less energy per capifa and we have already used vastly more energy than any other country (and emitted far more CO2) to get to the developed status that we currently are in. So it is not a defensible position to say, yeah we already filled this landfill up 80% of the way and got ahead of you guys in doing so, but - TOUGH, we all have an equal share in managing the responsibility for this remaining 20%. Who would possibly agree to that? Some redress was needed to address the catch-up development needs of countries that have not exploited carbon to the extent the US already has.

    Here is some data for cumulative CO2 emissions by country over time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...climate-change

  12. #27
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    Re: Climate Change

    I posted a link on the other thread, so I didn't do it again here. But MIT scientists have stated that if everyone involved in the Paris accords were to completely fulfill their agreements with regards to CO2 emissions, it would only decrease the temperature by 0.3 degrees F by the year 2100.

    Are the MIT scientists wrong? definitely seems like a wealth transfer ponzi scheme to me.

  13. #28
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDog View Post
    I posted a link on the other thread, so I didn't do it again here. But MIT scientists have stated that if everyone involved in the Paris accords were to completely fulfill their agreements with regards to CO2 emissions, it would only decrease the temperature by 0.3 degrees F by the year 2100.

    Are the MIT scientists wrong? definitely seems like a wealth transfer ponzi scheme to me.
    That's exactly what it is. God bless President Trump for having the gonads to stand up for America. We can't afford to make welfare payments to everybody on the planet, and that's essentially what this deal amounted to.

  14. #29
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDog View Post
    I posted a link on the other thread, so I didn't do it again here. But MIT scientists have stated that if everyone involved in the Paris accords were to completely fulfill their agreements with regards to CO2 emissions, it would only decrease the temperature by 0.3 degrees F by the year 2100.

    Are the MIT scientists wrong? definitely seems like a wealth transfer ponzi scheme to me.
    The MIT professors already responded. I guess you didn't bother to read what they had to say about Trump's misuse of their study?

    If there is not one single thing we can do to prevent all terrorism, should we do nothing until we can figure out and agree what that one thing is? Or is it better to do the one thing now that the vast majority of experts agree will work to reduce terrorism while we continue to work on other improvements?

  15. #30
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    Re: Climate Change

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    What you guys are not taking into account is the fact that China/India and other developing countries use less energy per capifa and we have already used vastly more energy than any other country (and emitted far more CO2) to get to the developed status that we currently are in. So it is not a defensible position to say, yeah we already filled this landfill up 80% of the way and got ahead of you guys in doing so, but - TOUGH, we all have an equal share in managing the responsibility for this remaining 20%. Who would possibly agree to that? Some redress was needed to address the catch-up development needs of countries that have not exploited carbon to the extent the US already has.

    Here is some data for cumulative CO2 emissions by country over time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...climate-change
    What you're not taking into account is you're starting with a false premise: that humans cause climate change. So, all those stats of the US does this % or that % are totally irrelevant.

    Let me say again (I have posted this many times before), I believe in keeping the environment as clean as possible. There are practical, sensible things we can/should do. And yes, humans can adversely impact the micro-environment in which we live i.e. we can pollute a river, we can lower air quality in major cities and downwind of a factory. Companies have a right to make products and earn a profit by doing it, fine. They don't have a right to make me smell their factory or breathe in whatever they are spewing out. So! if they have to put a stack-scrubber on their big chimneys, and those are expensive, tough! that's the cost of doing business.

    I have no problem with making internal combustion engines as efficient as possible. Getting 50mpg > 20mpg. I have no issue using solar and wind power where it is practical. Same for other alternate energy sources. Etc...

    The single biggest problem facing humans today is NOT some contrived global warming BS, it's access to clean drinking water. Right now there are 700 million people worldwide who have no, zero, nada source of dependable drinking water. And there are tens of millions of others whose water source is precarious and could be lost any day. This is a REAL problem.

    The whole "climate change" movement is nothing but a politically-driven, self-serving effort to force a "one world" view onto all of us. It has nothing to do with real science or a real concern about the Earth's climate(s). (have to use plural since our planet has multiple climates). Nope, sorry. A single mega-volcano can spew more crap into the atmosphere in a ONE DAY, then all the activity of humans in the US in 30 years. There are right now 18 active volcanos around the world, none of them a mega type. But all of them are spewing gasses into the atmosphere 24/7. (could not find data on what the combined effect of the 18 is). There have been 64 "major" eruptions around the world in the past 100 years. Not sure how the site I viewed is defining "major." Of course each eruption event lasts for some time period, in some cases a year+ (365 days). I guarantee the combined emissions of these 64 volcanos absolutely dwarfs the combined activity of humans during the same time frame (100 years). The primary gas emitted by volcanos, after water vapor, of course, is CO2, followed by SO2.

    If you get these volcanos to sign the Paris Accords, you might have something....

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